Copper price’s trading extended towards 68% Fibonacci correction level, recording the second target at $4.9000, to form an extra barrier against the bullish rally.
We expect price affection by some of the negative pressures, especially, stochastic attempts to exit the overbought level, which might increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track and suffering some losses by reaching $4.7700 and $4.6800, while the price success to breach the obstacle will reinforce the chances for recording new gains that might extend towards $4.9600 reaching the next barrier near $5.0300.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7700 and $4.900
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
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The US dollar has shown itself to be somewhat resilient during the trading session on Tuesday, despite the fact that we plunged just below the ¥140 level.
This is a level that of course is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a major swing low from previous trading.
Because of this, I think a certain amount of “market memory” comes into the picture, meaning that we should see a certain amount of support at this point.
Technical Analysis
The technical analysis for this USD/JPY pair is obviously negative, but the ¥140 level is an area that a lot of people will be paying close attention to because it had been such a massive support previously. Furthermore, it looks as if the market is trying to form a hammer for the day, and if it does in fact do that, one would have to assume that there might be buyers willing to get involved. That being said, I prefer to have a little bit more in the way of confirmation with a move like this, and in this environment, I will be waiting for a move above the ¥143 level.
If we were to break above the ¥143 level, then I think you have a scenario where we may go looking to reach the ¥148 level again, which is where the 50 Day EMA currently resides. This of course is a technical indicator that a lot of people will be paying close attention for potential resistance. That being said, it is worth noting that market participants continue to look at this through the prism of a market that will be moving on the latest tariff headlines, and of course risk appetite in general. Remember, the Japanese yen is considered to be the ultimate “safety currency” for a lot of traders, and with that being said, this pair will continue to be highly sensitive to the latest headlines involving the tariff war.
No news for the EURJPY pair, to keep providing weak sideways trading, due to the continuous contradiction between the main indicators in the last period, to notice its fluctuation near the moving average 55 at 161.60.
Note that the stability of the trading below the main resistance at 163.05 represents a main factor for confirming the bearish bias domination, to keep waiting for targeting negative stations near 160.35 and 159.55, while breaching the resistance and holding above it will cancel the negative suggestion, to begin targeting several positive stations by reaching 163.70 and 164.20.
The expected trading range for today is between 160.35 and 162.40
Trend forecast: Bearish
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EUR/USD rebounds from weekly lows, trades above 1.1400.
The near-term technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup of bullish momentum.
The US economic calendar will feature preliminary PMI data for April.
EUR/USD came under bearish pressure and closed deep in negative territory on Tuesday. After extending its decline to a fresh weekly low near 1.1300 in the Asian session on Wednesday, the pair regained its traction and recovered above 1.1400 in the European session.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.21%
-0.18%
-0.21%
-0.32%
-0.48%
-1.07%
0.62%
EUR
0.21%
-0.13%
-0.03%
-0.16%
-0.45%
-0.90%
0.82%
GBP
0.18%
0.13%
0.26%
-0.03%
-0.34%
-0.78%
0.94%
JPY
0.21%
0.03%
-0.26%
-0.11%
-0.38%
-0.73%
0.87%
CAD
0.32%
0.16%
0.03%
0.11%
-0.27%
-0.74%
0.97%
AUD
0.48%
0.45%
0.34%
0.38%
0.27%
-0.42%
1.25%
NZD
1.07%
0.90%
0.78%
0.73%
0.74%
0.42%
1.76%
CHF
-0.62%
-0.82%
-0.94%
-0.87%
-0.97%
-1.25%
-1.76%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
US President Donald Trump said at a press conference late Tuesday that he had no intention of firing Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, despite being frustrated with high interest rates. This comment eased fears over the Fed losing its independence and helped the US Dollar (USD) erase a large part of Monday’s losses.
The data from the Eurozone showed on Wednesday that the business activity in the service sector contracted in April, with the flash HCOB Services Purchasing Managers (PMI) Index dropping to 49.7 from 51 in March. In the same period, the HCOB Composite PMI declined to 50.1 from 50.9.
Assessing the survey’s details, “the European Central Bank is getting some mild support for its rate-cutting stance from the price indicators in the services sector, which the monetary authorities are closely watching,” said Dr. Cyrus de la Rubia, Chief Economist at Hamburg Commercial Bank. “Costs have risen at a similar rate to March, but the increase in selling prices has slowed significantly.”
In the second half of the day, the US economic calendar will feature preliminary S&P Global PMI data. In case both the Manufacturing and Services PMIs arrive above 50, the USD could stay resilient against its rivals and make it difficult for EUR/USD to extend its recovery. On the other hand, the USD could come under additional selling pressure if the details of the survey highlight a significant deterioration in the private sector’s sentiment due to the uncertainty created by the Trump administration’s new tariff regime.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays near 50, reflecting a neutral stance in the near term. Additionally, EUR/USD rose above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) but it’s yet to clear the 20-period SMA.
Looking north, immediate resistance could be spotted at 1.1450 (20-period SMA, static level) before 1.1500 (round level) and 1.1550 (mid-point of the ascending channel). On the downside, 1.1360 (lower limit of the ascending channel) aligns as first support ahead of 1.1300 (static level, round level).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Silver price could lose ground due to investor optimism growing over the Federal Reserve’s independence.
US President Donald Trump helped calm markets by clarifying he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Silver price receives support from President Trump’s optimism over ongoing US-China trade negotiations.
Silver price (XAG/USD) retraces its recent losses from the previous session, trading around $32.70 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Wednesday. However, prices of grey metal faced headwinds as investor optimism grew over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) independence.
US President Donald Trump helped calm markets by clarifying he has no intention of removing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, stating, “The press runs away with things. No, I have no intention of firing him. I would like to see him be a little more active in terms of his idea to lower interest rates.”
Market sentiment was further lifted by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who called the ongoing tariff dispute with China “unsustainable” and expressed optimism about a resolution. Though formal talks have yet to begin, Bessent suggested a deal is within reach, according to attendees of a private JP Morgan Chase & Co. event in Washington.
However, Silver continues to find support from this positive backdrop. President Trump echoed an upbeat outlook, noting progress in trade negotiations with China. While he dismissed the possibility of steep tariff hikes—clarifying they wouldn’t reach 145%—he also confirmed tariffs would not be fully lifted.
As Silver plays a vital role in industries like electronics, solar energy, and automotive manufacturing, any improvement in US-China trade relations could boost demand, particularly given China’s position as a global manufacturing powerhouse.
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Copper price’s trading extended towards 68% Fibonacci correction level, recording the second target at $4.9000, to form an extra barrier against the bullish rally.
We expect price affection by some of the negative pressures, especially, stochastic attempts to exit the overbought level, which might increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track and suffering some losses by reaching $4.7700 and $4.6800, while the price success to breach the obstacle will reinforce the chances for recording new gains that might extend towards $4.9600 reaching the next barrier near $5.0300.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7700 and $4.900
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
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A decisive break above $66.99 could open the path to $68.15 and $70.21. Failure to clear this range might drag price back toward $64.24 or deeper to $62.20. So far, Brent is grinding higher, but the lack of volume near resistance zones suggests traders are cautious.
This triangle is nearing its apex—expect a breakout or breakdown soon as macro headlines and inventory data weigh in.
Copper price’s trading extended towards 68% Fibonacci correction level, recording the second target at $4.9000, to form an extra barrier against the bullish rally.
We expect price affection by some of the negative pressures, especially, stochastic attempts to exit the overbought level, which might increase the chances for activating the bearish correctional track and suffering some losses by reaching $4.7700 and $4.6800, while the price success to breach the obstacle will reinforce the chances for recording new gains that might extend towards $4.9600 reaching the next barrier near $5.0300.
The expected trading range for today is between $4.7700 and $4.900
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish track
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Gold price bounces from multi-day lows as bargain hunting kicks in early Wednesday.
The US Dollar reverses recovery gains as investors doubt President Trump’s intentions.
Gold price appears a ‘buy-the-dips’ trade as the RSI eases and prods the bullish zone.
Gold price has bounced off the dip to three-day lows near $3,310 early Wednesday as buyers fight back control amid a fading US Dollar (USD) recovery ahead of the US S&P Global preliminary business PMI data release.
Gold price could see a buying resurgence at lower levels
Gold price has witnessed volatile trading this week, hitting fresh record highs at $3,500 before facing rejection and slumping toward the $3,300 level. The record run in the Gold price was mainly backed by the markets’ anxiety about the US Federal Reserve (Fed) losing its independence following President Donald Trump’s verbal attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
The focus shifted from the US-China trade war to Trump’s Fed threat early in the week, exacerbating the US Dollar’s pain while driving the Gold price to new all-time highs. However, the tide turned in favor of the Greenback in Tuesday’s American trading as USD buyers were rescued by US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said at a closed event that he expects “there will be a de-escalation” in President Donald Trump’s trade war with China in the “very near future.”
Hopes of easing US-China trade tensions fuelled a positive shift in risk sentiment and a US Dollar recovery, reflecting an ideal ‘Tuesday turnaround.’ Investors took this as an excuse to book profits on their Gold long positions as the bright metal corrected as much as $120 from record highs to settle near $3,380.
Gold’s corrective downside extends into Asian trading as investors digest the overnight backpedalling by Trump on the US-China trade war and Powell’s firing. The US President said that the final tariff rate with China would come down “substantially” from the current 145% but it won’t be that high, not going to be that high.”
He added that he is willing to strike a trade deal with China, showing his openness for negotiations.
However, the downside in Gold price remains cushioned as the USD stalls its recovery momentum as markets question Trump’s intentions, citing them as highly unpredictable.
The attention now turns to the S&P Global preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data from Europe and the US for further trading impetus. US PMI data for April will be closely scrutinized for fresh signs on the health of the US economy. The data could help markets alter their expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year.
Fed fund futures ran into selling late Tuesday as investors scaled back the extent of rate cuts expected by year-end to around 81 basis points (bps).
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased from the overbought territory, returning to the bullish zone.
The latest downtick in the leading indicator backs the fresh leg down in Gold price. However, buyers remain hopeful so long as the $3,300 level holds fort.
If the correction deepens, Gold price could challenge the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $3,163.
Ahead of that, the $3,200 barrier could provide some support to buyers.
Conversely, if the uptrend resumes, Gold price could retake the $3,400 threshold en-route to the record highs of $3,500.
Economic Indicator
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI
The S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis, is a leading indicator gauging business activity in the US manufacturing sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the manufacturing sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), industrial production, employment and inflation. A reading above 50 indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the US Dollar (USD). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity in the manufacturing sector is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for USD.
Signs have been building recently that the uptrend was getting extended with the risk of a bearish pullback increasing. Nonetheless, the price of gold proceeded higher as global uncertainty spread, busting through numerous potential resistance levels on the way up. Recently, upside breakouts of two rising parallel trend channels triggered and were confirmed by weekly closing prices above the top of each channel. This was bullish behavior but also signs of growing speculation as traders jump into gold in fear of losing out on further gains.
Generates Bearish Shooting Star
Today’s bearish shooting star candlestick pattern will trigger a one-day bearish reversal on a drop below today’s low, currently at $3,372. The first clear downside target is the prior brief trend high at $3,246, which was also the top of a small bull pennant pattern that covered only two days. Measuring the pattern provided an estimated target of $3,454, and it was exceeded today. Also, on the way down watch for support around the top channel lines. The price they represent will vary depending on when approached.
Test of 20-Day Moving Average Possible
Since the 20-Day MA was reclaimed at the beginning of this year, two subsequent pullbacks to test the line as support failed initially before gold recovered and trended higher. This current potential bearish pullback could certainly fall to the 20-Day line, now at $3,153, to test it as support before it is complete. If that is what happens the expectation is for signs of support to be seen around the line. Since the 20-Day MA is rising it may reach another prior trend high of $3,168, where support may be seen, or rise above it.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
