• Silver breaks below 100- and 200-day SMAs, signals strong bearish momentum amid escalating US-China tariff battle.
• RSI enters oversold territory, but selling pressure may continue toward $28.74 and $27.71 if $29 fails to hold.
• A recovery above $30 could see buyers retest $30.86 SMA and key resistance near $31.00.

 Silver price plummeted on Friday as financial market turmoil continued for the third straight day, following US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose reciprocal tariffs. Consequently, China retaliated, sparking fears of a global economic slowdown. The XAG/USD trades at $29.55, sinking more than 7%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

On its way lower, Silver fell below the 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) on Friday, indicating a strong sell-off, once the grey metal cleared $31.39 and $30.86, respectively. Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned bearish and oversold, due to the aggressiveness of the move, XAG/USD could continue to edge lower.

If XAG/USD falls below $29.00, this could expose the December 19 swing low of $28.74. Once surpassed, the next support would be the September 3 low of $27.71. Conversely, if XAG/USD climbs past $30.00, buyers could be poised to challenge the 200-day SMA at $30.86, followed by the $31 mark.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily

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Thursday’s breakdown below the 50-day moving average at $32.52 marked a major technical reversal. Friday’s continuation move sliced through the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $31.81, leading to a test of the 200-day moving average at $30.89. A close below that longer-term level would open the door for a deeper retracement toward $28.40. Resistance on the upside is now clearly defined at $31.81 and $32.53, both of which must be reclaimed to regain bullish footing​.

Silver’s weakness is closely tied to forced selling across asset classes. As U.S. equity markets plummet—highlighted by a 2,000+ point drop in Dow futures over two sessions—margin calls are spilling into metals. Gold, which hit record highs Thursday, also saw liquidation pressure driven by margin demands and a bearish reversal pattern​. These forced exits are compounding silver’s technical damage, dragging prices lower despite ongoing macro tailwinds like elevated inflation and Fed uncertainty.

Tariffs Stoke Global Growth Concerns

Traders are also reacting to the latest tariff escalation, which threatens to further dampen global demand. The U.S. has implemented sweeping reciprocal tariffs affecting over 180 countries, prompting China to respond with a 34% levy on all American goods​. These trade tensions are fueling risk-off flows and heightening fears of a global recession, with JPMorgan now assigning a 60% probability of a U.S. downturn. Weakening GDP forecasts and falling Treasury yields (10-year now at 3.882%) confirm the flight to safety and deteriorating sentiment.

Labor Market Resilience Offers Little Relief

While Friday’s payroll report showed robust job creation and stable wage growth, it has done little to counter the bearish mood. Traders remain focused on liquidity stress, softening real yields, and reduced Fed cut expectations. El-Erian’s revised call for potentially just one rate cut this year removes a key pillar of support for precious metals and leaves silver exposed in the near term.

Market Forecast: Silver Vulnerable Without a Catalyst

With silver breaking key support levels and macro stress intensifying, the short-term outlook remains bearish. A failure to hold the 200-day moving average at $30.89 could accelerate the downside move toward $28.40.

Unless the metal reclaims resistance above $32.53, sellers are in control. Traders should prepare for continued volatility as recession fears, equity market stress, and policy uncertainty remain front and center.

US crude oil price extended its losses in a free fall in the intraday levels, amid the dominance of the main downward trend, with the price breaching the current support of $63.10, as negative signals emerged from the Stochastic despite settling at oversold levels, indicating the strength of the selling momentum.

Goldman Sachs cut its oil price forecast for 2025 by 5.5% for Brent crude and by 4.3% for West Texas Intermediate citing OPEC+ decision to bring more production back in May and the tariff barrage that President Trump unleashed this week, which the bank expects will cause a global recession.

The bank’s analysts now expect Brent crude to average $69 per barrel this year and WTI to average $66 per barrel. The benchmarks have been trading around these levels earlier today.

Goldman did not stop there, however, expecting the doom and gloom to persist into 2026 as well. The bank also revised its 2026 Brent crude forecast by 9% to $62 per barrel and its 2026 WTI forecast by 6.3% to $59 per barrel.

“The risks to our reduced oil price forecast are to the downside, especially for 2026, given growing risks of recession and to a lesser extent of higher OPEC+ supply,” Goldman analysts wrote in a note, cited by Reuters.

The OPEC+ countries that have been cutting their oil production for more than a year to keep prices above a certain acceptable minimum decided on Thursday to continue easing the reductions by adding 411,000 barrels per day to their combined supply from May. The move came as a surprise to traders and analysts, who had expected a much smaller boost of 135,000 barrels daily.

Instead, the eight OPEC+ countries that have been withholding production – Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman – decided to bundle three monthly increases in output in the May production levels, which put additional pressure on prices.

In light of these latest developments, Goldman Sachs’ analysts have revised their oil demand projections for 2025 to 600,000 bpd from 900,000 bpd. For 2026, they project global oil demand growth of 700,000 barrels daily.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com

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Analysts warn that such measures could exacerbate global trade tensions, raising the risk of a slowdown in international commerce and potentially tipping the U.S. economy toward recession.

Even with downside pressure, gold continues to benefit from safe-haven flows. “The broader market is cautious, and gold is finding support from risk-off sentiment,” said a commodities strategist at a major European bank. “Tariff escalation has reignited concerns around economic stability.”

Silver Tracks Lower, but Risk Aversion Offers Support

Silver (XAG/USD) slipped to $31.40, following broader risk aversion across commodities and equities. While silver’s industrial component makes it more sensitive to growth expectations, its safe-haven demand remains supported.

A firmer U.S. dollar ahead of the closely watched Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report also weighed on silver’s price. However, analysts expect downside in silver to remain limited, particularly if the NFP data reflects labor market softness or moderates expectations for U.S. growth.

Fed Rate Cut Bets and Yield Decline Anchor Gold

The Federal Reserve’s expected dovish stance continues to underpin gold’s resilience. Traders are pricing in as many as four rate cuts by the end of 2025.

Meanwhile, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield dipped below 4% for the first time in six months—a move that weakened the dollar and increased the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold. According to futures data, markets now assign a 64% probability of a rate cut by July.

Natural gas price faced the negativity of the Stochastic by repeatedly holding within an upward channel, as the support of $3.750 held on, with the price marking some gains by touching $4.150.

The price is now in need of positive momentum to surpass $4.180 and open the door for more gains towards $4.260 then $4.480. 

Expected trading range today is between $3.880  and $4.260.

Today’s price forecast: Bullish