The GBPJPY pair ended its bullish rally by reaching 214.90, forming a strong barrier against the bullish attempts, which pushes it to activate the bearish corrective track, to reach 213.5 attempting to press on the bullish channel’s support that appears in the above image.
Note that stochastic decline below 50 level, and attempt to form extra barrier at 214.15 level, these factors makes us wait for breaking the current support, to reinforce the chances to begin gathering gains, to expect targeting 212.90 level initially, where breaking this barrier might extend the trading towards 212.45 and 212.00, while holding above 214.15 will confirm the continuation of the bullish scenario, waiting to reach 215.00.
The expected trading range for today is between 212.90 and 214.00
Coffee price succeeded in activating the previously suggested negative trend by reaching below 334.20 support, forming a strong decline, achieving the initial target by reaching 314.85 level.
Note that stochastic stability within the oversold level will increase the negative pressure in the current period, to form new bearish waves to reach 308.00, to press on 300.50 support to find an exit for resuming the negative trading in the upcoming period.
The expected trading range for today is between 300.50 and 325.00
The Euro has risen against the Japanese Yen during the trading session here on Wednesday as the interest rate differential continues to be a main driver of things. The ECB meets on Thursday, so be aware that volatility is almost certain to happen.
EURJPY
The Euro has risen against the Japanese Yen during the trading session here on Wednesday as we continue to just see a nice uptrend in a market that quite frankly has been a buy on the dip opportunity every time it falls. We are sitting above the 50-day EMA and of course the uptrend line.
We are hanging around the 185 Yen level and that of course is a large round psychologically significant figure that attracts a lot of attention. If we do pull back from here, I think that opens up the possibility of buyers getting involved on value.
Interest Rate Differentials and Policy Outlook
Keep in mind one problem we have is that the Thursday session has the ECB interest rate decision and that will come into the picture and cause a little bit of noise from everything I can see. With this being the case though, I think unless the ECB sounds suddenly very dovish, which I don’t think they will, you have a scenario where the interest rate differential will continue to favor the upside as the Bank of Japan really can’t do anything.
I suspect at this point we will eventually go looking toward the 190 Yen level, but that might take some time to get to. If we were to break down below the uptrend line and ostensibly the 50-day EMA, then I look for support at the 182 Yen level, possibly even down to the 180 Yen level. I have no interest in shorting this pair. I do not pay the swap and of course the trend is very well established here.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price announced delaying the bullish trend by providing new negative closure below $5.9700 level, affected by stochastic negativity, forming some bearish corrective waves to settle near $5.7500.
The continuation of suffering negative pressures will increase the efficiency of the bearish corrective track in the near period, which makes us prefer targeting $5.6200 level, repeating the pressure on the extra support at $5.5100, forming confirmation key for the trend of the medium trading.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.6200 and $5.9200
The GBP/USD pair attracts follow-through sellers for the second straight day on Thursday and retreats further from its highest level since September 2021, around the 1.3870 region, touched last week. The downward trajectory is sponsored by a firmer US Dollar (USD) and drags spot prices to the 1.3600 neighborhood or a nearly two-week low during the early European session as traders await the Bank of England (BoE) policy update.
The UK central bank is widely expected to leave the benchmark interest rates unchanged at 3.75% amid a rise in inflation, which remained above the BoE’s 2% target in December. Traders, however, are still pricing in the possibility that the BoE will lower borrowing costs in 2026 amid signs of a weakening labor market. In fact, the UK Unemployment rate remained at a four-year high of 5.1% in the three months to November, and the number of employed people fell by 43,000 in December. Adding to this, slowing wage growth strengthens the case for further BoE easing. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the MPC vote split and the post-meeting press conference, where comments from BoE Governor Andrew Bailey will influence the British Pound (GBP) and provide some meaningful impetus to the GBP/USD pair.
Heading into the key central bank event risk, the GBP bulls opt to remain on the sidelines amid an extension of the recent USD recovery from a four-year low. US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair fueled speculations that the central bank will be less dovish than expected. Furthermore, heightened market volatility and Fed Governor Lisa Cook’s hawkish comments, saying that risks are skewed toward higher inflation, lift the safe-haven Greenback to a nearly two-week high, which continues to exert some downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair. Any meaningful USD upside, however, seems elusive on the back of expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the US central bank in 2026. The bets were reaffirmed by Wednesday’s dismal labor market report.
In fact, the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) Research Institute reported that private-sector employers added 22K new jobs in January compared to the previous month’s downwardly revised reading of 37K and 48K consensus estimates. Adding to this, Trump said that he would have passed on Kevin Warsh’s nomination if he had expressed a desire to hike rates and that there was not much doubt that the US central bank would lower interest rates. This, in turn, could cap the USD gains and act as a tailwind for the GBP/USD pair. Traders on Thursday will further take cues from the US economic docket – featuring JOLTS Job Openings and Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Nevertheless, the mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution before placing aggressive bets and positioning for the next leg of a directional move.
GBP/USD 1-hour chart
Technical Analysis:
The GBP/USD pair finds some support near the 1.3600 mark, representing the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the upswing from the January swing low, which should now act as a key pivotal point for traders. Meanwhile, the recent breakdown below the 100-hour Simple Moving Average (SMA) favors bears.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains below the zero line with the MACD line under the Signal line and a contracting histogram, suggesting weak bearish momentum. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 32 (oversold threshold), hinting that downside pressure is stretched.
Meanwhile, the 61.8% Fibo. retracement at 1.3548 underpins the downside, and a break would warn of a deeper deterioration. Absent such a breach, stabilization above mid-range support could allow an oversold bounce, though the declining 100-period SMA would keep recovery attempts fragile.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Gold is experiencing some volatility in Thursday’s Asian trading, moving back and forth in a roughly $200 range. Traders now look forward to the US JOLTS Job Openings data and geopolitical developments between the US and Iran for a clear directional impetus.
Gold struggles amid mixed fundamentals
Gold settled flat near $4,950 on Wednesday after witnessing two-way business. Initially, the traditional safe haven rebounded firmly to test the $5,100 level on uncertainty over the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential monetary policy outlook under Kevin Warsh. The Fed concerns undermined the US Dollar (USD) across the board.
Meanwhile, rekindled geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine also provided a much-needed relief to Gold buyers, alongside increased concerns over the economic data disruption caused by the US partial government shutdown that ended on Tuesday.
However, the tide turned against the USD in the American session on Wednesday, following the release of the US ISM Services PMI data, which showed signs of a pick-up in inflation. Further, the tech sell-off on Wall Street gathered steam and spooked markets, as investors ran to the world’s reserve currency, the Greenback, for some solace.
The sell-off in the Japanese Yen (JPY)due to increased fiscal and political concerns boosted the USD/JPY pair, in turn, lifting the USD.
This reversal in the USD, fuelled a sharp pullback in Gold, but dip buyers once again jumped in near the $4,950 psychological level.
In Thursday’s trading so far, Gold is back in the red, having faced rejection again above the $5,000 key resistance. The USD extends its upbeat momentum, clinching fresh two-week highs against its six major currency rivals, as market mood worsens amid a global tech sell-off.
A meltdown in global providers of data analytics, professional services and software followed Anthropic’s launch of plug-ins for its Claude Cowork agent on Friday, which raised concerns about AI-fuelled disruption to those industries, per Reuters.
Looking ahead, the delayed US JOLT Job Openings Survey could help Gold buyers cut their losses, especially if the data doubles down on two Fed rate expectations for this year.
However, if the JPY extends its downward spiral against the USD, Gold could see another bout of intense selling.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all rise, with the 21-day above the longer ones, underscoring a firm bullish structure. Price holds above these gauges, keeping buyers in control. The 21-day SMA at $4,827.45 offers nearby support, while the 50-day sits at $4,532.68. The Relative Strength Index (14) stands at 52.58, neutral after easing from prior extremes, indicating momentum is consolidating.
The upward alignment of the SMAs supports a buy-on-dips stance while the price holds above the short-term average. A deeper pullback would bring the 100-day SMA at $4,271.21 into view, with the 200-day at $3,821.77 underpinning the broader trend. RSI holding above the 50 midline would keep the bullish bias intact, whereas a drop back below it could open room for a broader retracement.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Economic Indicator
JOLTS Job Openings
JOLTS Job Openings is a survey done by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics to help measure job vacancies. It collects data from employers including retailers, manufacturers and different offices each month.
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The EURJPY pair succeeded in surpassing the barrier at 184.00, to settle above it to ease the mission of resuming the bullish trend, to settle near the initial bullish target at 184.85 level.
The main stability within the bullish channel’s levels beside providing bullish momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of recording extra gains, to wait for reaching 185.45 and surpassing it might push it to press on 186.20 barrier, to form the next main target in the current trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 184.30 and 185.45
The GBPJPY pair benefited from providing bullish momentum by the main indicators, especially with stochastic reach towards 80 level, forming a strong bullish rally to surpass the barrier at 213.00, to settle above the bullish channel’s support at 213.55 level, to target some extra gains by reaching 214.30.
The stability above the bullish channel’s support will provide strong chance of recording extra gains; to expect to form initial target at 214.90 level and surpassing it might extend the trading in the near period towards 215.55 and 216.35.
The expected trading range for today is between 213.80 and 214.90
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted lower on Wednesday, easing back as investors digested a fresh batch of US economic data that lent modest support to the Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading close to $1.3663, down around 0.2% from the start of the European session.
The US Dollar found some footing after the latest ISM services PMI signalled continued resilience in the US economy. January’s index held steady at 53.8, outperforming expectations for a slight dip to 53.5 and reinforcing the view that the services sector remains a source of strength.
Although the data lacked the punch of recent manufacturing releases, it was sufficient to underpin the Dollar and offset weaker labour market signals from the ADP employment report.
With the official non-farm payrolls release postponed due to the partial government shutdown, markets paid closer attention to the ADP figures, which showed job creation slowed sharply last month. Employment growth eased from 37,000 to just 22,000, highlighting a cooling trend in hiring.
The Pound, meanwhile, struggled to gain traction following the release of the UK’s final services PMI for January.
The index was revised down to 54 from an initial estimate of 54.3. While still marking the fastest pace of expansion since August 2025, the downgrade disappointed hopes of a fresh multi-month high and limited Sterling demand.
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The survey also flagged ongoing weakness in employment, with service-sector firms continuing to scale back hiring. An increasing focus on automation and efficiency is weighing on job creation, tempering the otherwise upbeat headline reading.
GBP/USD Forecast: Bank of England Signals in Focus
Looking ahead, near-term direction in the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is likely to hinge on the Bank of England’s first policy decision of 2026.
While no change in interest rates is expected, traders will scrutinise the BoE’s guidance for clues on how policymakers assess the outlook for inflation and growth. Any shift towards a firmer or more cautious tone could help Sterling stabilise as markets reassess expectations for future rate cuts.
For the US Dollar, attention will turn to the University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment survey. A further dip in confidence could erode some of the Dollar’s recent support if household morale continues to weaken.
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