For swing chart traders, the key support is the main bottom at $3886.46. The trend will change to down according to the lower bottom rule if this level is taken out. However, without a lower top to accompany it, the momentum may actually shift to neutral.

Gold Price Stretched $1,110 Above 52-Week Moving Average

The main support and dominant trend indicator is the 52-week moving average at $3439.44. XAUUSD has held cleanly above this indicator since the week-ending October 20, 2023 so we know it is powerful. Other than the early stages of the rally from October 2023 to February 2024 when the market held closely to the moving average, it has been comfortably above.

We can deal with a steady 45-degree rise since most great rallies tend to follow this pattern. However, since the week-ending September 5, or the week that it broke out over $3500.20, the rally has been nearly vertical.

Parabolic Rally Targets Week-Ending January 10 for Potential Top

When XAUUSD topped earlier in the year in April at $3500.20, it proceeded to move sideways for 18 weeks. Price was $844.76 above the 52-week moving average at that time. At last week’s high at $4550.15, price was $1110.71 above it.

What we have is a situation where price is ahead of time. Time is 18 weeks and 18 weeks from the breakout over $3500.20 is the week-ending January 10. We’ll be watching at that time for signs of a top.

Thin Holiday Volume Drives Price Action

We all know the bullish narrative driving prices higher so there is no sense going into great detail. We have central bank buying, Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks.

NEW YORK, Dec. 28, 2025, 12:36 p.m. ET — Market closed

Natural gas stocks are heading into Monday’s U.S. trading session with a familiar winter setup: a fast-changing weather outlook colliding with record-high production, strong LNG feedgas demand, and a key U.S. government storage report that’s been pushed into the start of the week.

While the U.S. stock market is shut for the weekend, the natural gas trade rarely stays quiet for long. Traders and investors are positioning around three near-term swing factors: (1) whether colder early-January forecasts stick, (2) whether LNG export demand remains near recent records, and (3) what the delayed Energy Information Administration (EIA) storage data says about the pace of withdrawals after December’s volatility.

The latest: Henry Hub ended the week higher as colder forecasts re-enter the conversation

In the most recent session referenced in market reporting, U.S. natural gas futures rose in thin holiday-week trading and finished the week with a gain, snapping a losing streak as forecasts pointed to colder weather and higher demand in the weeks ahead. The front-month contract was reported at $4.366 per MMBtu and up 9.6% on the week, helped by expectations for a cooler turn into early January. ^[1]

Energy Ventures Analysis President Robert DiDona said holiday liquidity can amplify price moves, but emphasized that the “real storyline” was the colder weather models—especially for the eastern U.S. ^[2]

For natural gas equities, that matters because the group’s day-to-day direction often tracks the Henry Hub narrative, particularly for upstream gas producers (cash-flow sensitivity), and for midstream and LNG names (volume, spreads, and export economics).

But supply remains the counterweight: record output and strong LNG flows

Even as weather can swing sentiment, supply has been stubbornly high. The same reporting cited record-average Lower 48 output around 109.8 Bcf/d in December, alongside LNG feedgas flows around 18.4 Bcf/d so far this month, near record territory. ^[3]

That combination—high production plus high export demand—is critical for stock pickers:

• Upstream producers can benefit quickly when price rises outpace cost inflation, but they’re still exposed to the risk that production stays too strong for too long.
• LNG-linked names tend to benefit when utilization is high and outages are limited; the market also watches terminal reliability as a driver of U.S. demand.
• Pipelines and midstream operators often behave more defensively, but their longer-term upside increasingly ties to infrastructure that can move associated gas from places like the Permian to the Gulf Coast.

On the LNG operations front, Freeport LNG confirmed earlier that its trains had resumed after a feedgas disruption—an example of the kind of operational headline that can ripple through both commodity prices and LNG-adjacent equities. ^[4]

The next catalyst: EIA storage data lands Monday at noon

For Monday’s session, the biggest scheduled macro catalyst for U.S. natural gas pricing is the EIA Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report—and the timing matters this week.

Due to the holiday schedule, the EIA shows the Christmas-delayed storage report will be released Monday, Dec. 29, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET. The New Year’s Day-delayed report is scheduled for Wednesday, Dec. 31, 2025 at 12:00 p.m. ET. ^[5]

That “back-to-back” cadence can compress reaction windows and potentially make early-week trading more headline-driven than usual—especially if weather models shift at the same time.

Where inventories stood most recently (and why Monday’s report is so watched)

The EIA’s most recently summarized weekly fundamentals underscored how quickly winter can tighten balances. For the week ending Dec. 12, the EIA reported net withdrawals of 167 Bcf, with working gas stocks at 3,579 Bcf—about 1% above the five-year average but 2% below the year-ago level. ^[6]

That matters for natural gas stocks because storage “surprises” (withdrawals bigger or smaller than expected) can quickly reprice the curve—often lifting or punishing producer equities first, then rippling through LNG and midstream based on what the move implies for demand and infrastructure utilization.

What the big-picture forecasts say for 2026

Beyond Monday’s near-term catalysts, investors are weighing whether the current winter strength is a short-lived weather premium or the start of a higher-price regime.

In its December Short-Term Energy Outlook, the EIA said it expects the Henry Hub spot price to average around $4.30/MMBtu during the winter heating season (Nov–Mar), and that milder weather in early 2026 and rising production should help moderate prices, with the Henry Hub price averaging about $4.00/MMBtu next year. ^[7]

The same outlook projects:

• U.S. dry natural gas production averaging about 109 Bcf/d in 2026 (up from 2025), and
• U.S. LNG exports rising from 14.9 Bcf/d in 2025 to 16.3 Bcf/d in 2026. ^[8]

For natural gas stocks, that forecast mix is important: higher production can cap upside unless demand grows fast enough (exports, power burn, industrial), but persistent LNG growth supports long-run volume and infrastructure buildout.

Infrastructure and the “Permian-to-Gulf” theme: a key tailwind for midstream

A fresh industry analysis circulating over the weekend spotlighted why pipeline capacity—not just commodity price—has become a central investment variable in the natural gas complex.

An Enverus Intelligence Research outlook highlighted the Permian Basin’s role in meeting rising LNG demand, projecting U.S. LNG feedgas demand could rise to 33 Bcf/d by 2030, with potential to approach 50 Bcf/d if expansions move forward, and pointing to substantial additional pipeline capacity aimed at moving gas toward Gulf Coast markets. ^[9]

Enverus director Alex Ljubojevic flagged that infrastructure may be sufficient to supply incremental LNG feedgas through 2030, but said the longer-term challenge is ensuring durable supply for additional expansions. ^[10]

Enverus analyst Josephine Mills added that the Permian’s inventory depth differs from maturing dry-gas plays, and expects Permian natural gas production to keep growing modestly over a multi-decade horizon. ^[11]

For equity investors, that strengthens the case that some pipeline and midstream businesses may be positioned to benefit from the long-run export buildout even if spot gas prices remain volatile.

The longer-term risk debate: will an LNG glut hit valuations?

Not all the recent analysis is bullish.

A Reuters Breakingviews commentary warned that rapid renewable deployment and falling battery costs could undermine long-term LNG demand growth, raising the risk that aggressive capacity additions create an oversupply “sinkhole” by 2030. The piece cited industry voices—including TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné—who have cautioned the sector may be “building too much,” and also referenced cost and delivery bottlenecks for gas turbines that could delay gas-fired power buildouts in parts of Asia. ^[12]

This is a key valuation question for LNG-export-linked equities and long-duration LNG project developers: even if near-term utilization is strong, the market increasingly discounts what it sees as “peak LNG exuberance” risk.

What investors should know before the next session

With U.S. equities reopening Monday, natural gas stock investors will likely be watching a tight cluster of catalysts that can drive outsized moves—especially after a holiday week where liquidity can be thinner.

Key items to monitor heading into Monday (Dec. 29):

1. The EIA storage report at 12:00 p.m. ET (delayed for the holiday) — the market will react to the withdrawal size versus expectations and what it implies for end-of-winter inventories. ^[13]
2. Early-January weather model updates — the recent price rebound was explicitly tied to colder outlooks into early January; a warmer flip can unwind gains quickly, while sustained cold can keep the bid under gas prices. ^[14]
3. LNG feedgas and terminal operations — flows near record levels have become a major support pillar; outages or resumptions can move the commodity and LNG-adjacent stocks. ^[15]
4. Production trajectory — record output has been the core bearish counterargument; if supply stays elevated, rallies can stall unless demand accelerates. ^[16]
5. The midweek follow-up storage print (Wednesday at noon ET) — two storage reports in one week can keep volatility elevated and shorten the “memory” of Monday’s data. ^[17]

Bottom line

Natural gas stocks enter the new week with momentum coming off a weather-driven rebound in futures, but with fundamentals still pulling in opposite directions: colder forecasts and strong LNG demand on one side, record production and ongoing longer-term LNG oversupply concerns on the other. ^[18]

For investors, Monday’s delayed EIA storage report—and the way the market interprets it alongside shifting January weather models—could set the tone not only for the first regular session after the weekend, but for how the natural gas equity complex trades into year-end. ^[19]

References

1. www.brecorder.com, 2. www.brecorder.com, 3. www.brecorder.com, 4. www.brecorder.com, 5. ir.eia.gov, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.eia.gov, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.mrt.com, 10. www.mrt.com, 11. www.mrt.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. ir.eia.gov, 14. www.brecorder.com, 15. www.brecorder.com, 16. www.brecorder.com, 17. ir.eia.gov, 18. www.brecorder.com, 19. ir.eia.gov

NEW YORK, Dec. 27, 2025, 12:14 p.m. ET — Market closed

Natural gas is heading into the final trading days of 2025 with a familiar winter driver back in control: weather. After sliding for two straight weeks, U.S. natural gas futures steadied and turned higher on Friday as forecasters dialed up colder risks into early January—an outlook that could tighten near-term balances even as Lower 48 production remains at record territory and LNG export demand stays historically strong. ^[1]

For investors, the key question into Monday’s open isn’t just whether “it gets colder.” It’s whether the latest weather models, LNG terminal operations, and storage expectations align in a way that forces the market to reprice quickly in thin year-end liquidity—especially with a rescheduled federal storage report due during regular U.S. trading hours. ^[2]

Where U.S. natural gas prices stand heading into Monday

Front-month NYMEX natural gas (January) was trading around $4.29 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) on Friday, up about 1% on the session and on track for a weekly gain that would snap a two-week losing streak. ^[3]

Holiday conditions mattered too. “There’s going to be thinner volume on the holiday week,” Robert DiDona, president of Energy Ventures Analysis, said, arguing that lighter participation can make prices more sensitive to shifting fundamentals—especially weather. ^[4]

The setup into early January looks constructive on paper: meteorologists were projecting a nationwide temperature step-down through roughly Jan. 10, with U.S. Heating Degree Days (HDDs) rising in recent forecasts—still below normal in the two-week view, but trending colder versus earlier model runs. ^[5]

Weather is the catalyst, but supply is the ceiling

The most immediate bullish lever is demand. LSEG projections cited in market coverage showed average Lower 48 demand (including exports) rising from about 136.1 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) this week to about 138.5 bcfd over the next two weeks, reflecting stronger heating needs. ^[6]

At the same time, the market is still dealing with a supply backdrop that can blunt rallies. LSEG also pegged December Lower 48 output at record levels—around 109.8 bcfd—topping November’s prior record. ^[7]

That tug-of-war—cold-driven demand versus record production—helps explain why natural gas has been volatile rather than trending cleanly in one direction. Investors should expect that dynamic to continue into January, with each major weather update effectively testing how tight balances really are.

LNG exports remain the wild card, and Freeport is back in focus

LNG has become one of the most important swing factors for U.S. natural gas pricing, and the market received fresh reminders this week that operational hiccups can quickly move sentiment.

In a Reuters-reported regulatory update carried by BOE Report, Freeport LNG said all three trains at its Texas export facility experienced a trip due to an interruption of feed gas. The filing said operators managed cooldowns and restarts “to minimize flaring.” ^[8]

Why does that matter? Freeport’s three trains are capable of turning roughly 2.4 bcfd of natural gas into LNG—enough scale that disruptions can ripple into U.S. balances and sometimes global benchmarks. ^[9]

By the end of the week, however, Freeport indicated that operations had resumed across all three trains after the temporary trip, easing fears of an extended outage. ^[10]

More broadly, average gas flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants were running around 18.4 bcfd so far this month—near record territory and up from a record monthly average in November, according to the same market snapshot. ^[11]

For investors, the takeaway is straightforward: as long as LNG feedgas stays near these highs, the U.S. market can tighten quickly when cold weather arrives—yet brief outages can produce sudden, sharp swings in either direction.

Global backdrop: sanctions, supply delays, and the long LNG cycle

The near-term U.S. price story is weather and LNG operations. The longer-term story is what global LNG supply and demand will look like by the end of the decade—because that trajectory increasingly shapes capital spending, pipeline buildouts, and the valuation story for gas-linked equities.

One major signal in the last 48 hours came from Russia. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said Russia has pushed back “by several years” its plan to reach an annual LNG output target of 100 million tons, citing the impact of Western sanctions. An updated government strategy sees Russia producing 90–105 million tons by 2030 and 110–130 million tons by 2036, Reuters reported. ^[12]

The global competitive set matters for U.S. investors because U.S. LNG is priced off Henry Hub plus liquefaction and shipping—meaning international supply constraints, policy shifts, and competing volumes can change how “pull” from overseas markets translates into U.S. demand.

Permian pipelines and the next LNG wave: Enverus lays out the bottlenecks

While daily weather drives the screen price, infrastructure is shaping the next decade of U.S. natural gas demand—and that includes the pipeline network needed to move gas from production basins to the Gulf Coast.

A newly highlighted Enverus Intelligence Research (EIR) analysis projects U.S. LNG feedgas demand rising to 33 bcfd by 2030, with potential to approach 50 bcfd by 2035 if planned expansions move forward. To support that, the research points to about 9.0 bcfd of new Permian pipeline capacity to the Gulf Coast, plus more than 12 bcfd of additional coastal pipeline capacity dedicated to LNG supply. ^[13]

“While there is ample pipeline capacity from the Permian Basin and along the Gulf Coast to supply incremental LNG feedgas to 2030,” EIR director Alex Ljubojevic said, “the challenge lies in ensuring long-term natural gas supply for additional LNG expansion.” ^[14]

Reporting on the analysis also flagged a potential long-run supply gap: EIR expects the Haynesville to peak around 19 bcfd in 2033 before declining, while Permian dry gas output could climb toward ~40 bcfd by 2050—yet infrastructure and resource development would still be needed to close a projected 2–8 bcfd gap by 2035. ^[15]

The counterpoint: renewables could change LNG’s long-run math

Not everyone believes LNG demand growth will remain as durable as today’s project pipeline implies.

In a Reuters Breakingviews column published Friday, analysts argued that rapid advances in solar, wind, and batteries could turn an expected LNG glut into an even deeper oversupply problem. The piece cited industry warnings about overbuilding, including TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanné saying the sector is “building too much,” and commentary from LNG executives about market exuberance. ^[16]

For investors, this debate matters because it could determine which gas-focused companies are rewarded for expanding—and which are penalized for pursuing long-cycle projects that arrive into weaker-than-expected demand.

Stock market context: year-end trading, light volume, and why gas can still move

U.S. equity markets are closed today, but the broader tone into the final week of 2025 is one of muted conviction and thinner participation—conditions that can amplify moves in commodities and energy-linked names once markets reopen.

On Friday, Wall Street ended a light-volume post-Christmas session nearly unchanged, with all three major indexes slightly lower but near all-time highs, Reuters reported—an environment consistent with late-December positioning and “Santa Claus rally” narratives. ^[17]

Natural gas often trades to its own rhythm, but thin liquidity and year-end positioning can still influence volatility across related equities (producers, midstream, utilities, LNG exporters) when headline catalysts hit.

What investors should know before the next U.S. session

With the market closed now, here are the key catalysts and risk points that could shape Monday’s open and the week ahead:

1) Weather model updates can reprice the strip quickly

The market is leaning heavily on forecasts calling for colder conditions into early January. Any material warming or further cooling in high-population regions (especially the eastern half of the U.S.) can shift demand expectations fast—and in year-end liquidity, those shifts can be exaggerated. ^[18]

2) A rescheduled EIA storage report hits during regular hours Monday

The most important scheduled data point is the U.S. government’s Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report, which is on a holiday-adjusted schedule.

The last reported EIA figure showed working gas in storage at 3,579 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 12—down 167 Bcf from the prior week and still within the five-year range. ^[19]

The release schedule shows the next storage report is set for Monday, Dec. 29 at 12:00 p.m. ET (holiday adjustment). That timing places it squarely in the middle of the regular U.S. equity and futures session, when liquidity is typically deeper—and when the market can react immediately. ^[20]

3) LNG feedgas and Freeport operations remain a volatility trigger

Freeport’s trip and restart underscores how sensitive U.S. balances are to LNG export operations. With monthly LNG feedgas still running near record levels in the broader system, any unplanned downtime—or confirmation that facilities are running cleanly—can shift the near-term supply-demand picture. ^[21]

4) Positioning: speculators have been adjusting exposure

CFTC data cited in market coverage showed speculators reduced net long positions across major U.S. natural gas markets in the week ending Dec. 16. That kind of positioning shift can matter into headline-heavy periods because it influences how much “dry powder” exists on either side of the trade. ^[22]

Bottom line

Natural gas is heading into the next session with bullish near-term momentum driven by colder forecasts and persistently strong LNG export pull—yet the rally is still navigating record production and the potential for sharp swings tied to LNG terminal operations and storage data.

For Monday, the market’s focal points are clear: weather updates into early January, operational stability at major LNG facilities (with Freeport back in the spotlight), and a holiday-shifted EIA storage report landing mid-session. ^[23]

References

1. www.worldenergynews.com, 2. www.worldenergynews.com, 3. www.worldenergynews.com, 4. www.worldenergynews.com, 5. www.worldenergynews.com, 6. www.worldenergynews.com, 7. www.worldenergynews.com, 8. boereport.com, 9. boereport.com, 10. www.worldenergynews.com, 11. www.worldenergynews.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.enverus.com, 14. www.enverus.com, 15. www.enverus.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.worldenergynews.com, 19. ir.eia.gov, 20. ir.eia.gov, 21. www.worldenergynews.com, 22. www.worldenergynews.com, 23. www.worldenergynews.com

Momentum Slows Near Key Extension Level

Despite new record highs, a slowdown in momentum is indicated by the three narrow range days at the top of the trend. Friday’s advance broke above a 127.2% extension target at $4,516. That was a potential resistance zone, but it only stalled the ascent by a couple of days. A 161.8% measured move projection (AB = 161.8% of price change in initial AB leg) is next in line at $4,578 as a possible upside target. However, given a breakout above the 127.2% extension, the 161.8% extension of the October bearish correction becomes a potential target at $4,687. That level is bounded by a 350% measured move projection at $4,664 below, and a 423.6% extension at $4,713, which is from the long-term correction that followed the 2011 peak of $1,921.

Confluence Zone Acts as Upside Magnet

This $4,664 to $4,713 price range is highlighted since the range includes two long-term indicators and the three price levels are relatively close together. It is the confluence of indicators pointing to a similar price zone that seems to sometimes act like a magnet for price. Strength indicated by this week’s new high breakout will confirm with a strong weekly close today. Moreover, the price of gold is following through to new highs on the second breakout above a rising trend channel. The channel shows symmetry in the uptrend. A sustained advance above the top of the channel shows a new leg higher at elevated momentum. If sustained, it could be the early part of a possible blow of phase where momentum could spike.

Pullbacks Highlighted as Key Decision Zones

Nevertheless, the bullish indications are sure to be noticed by investors and draw attention to pullbacks that can be watched for setups to enter the trend. The recent new high breakout level at $4,381 and the 10-day average, also at $4,381 but rising, present the first more significant potential decision zone.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Massive Rally Since November Low

Since bottoming at $48.64 on November 21, XAGUSD has rallied more than $28.67. Given the current fire power, it looks as if speculators want to challenge the 2026 target of $100 or better, well ahead of schedule.

Other interesting facts to note, since that November 21 bottom, the market has had only five losing sessions out 24. The nearest support is the swing chart 50% level at $69.50. And the market is currently $21.96 above the 50-day moving average at $55.35.

Technical Conditions Override Overbought Signals

This is real price action, not amateur RSI data that has been flashing overbought for days, perhaps spooking weak shorts out of the market and putting enough fear into new buyers to keep them on the sidelines.

Dip-Buying Behavior Has Shifted

We’ve heard for months that traders are coming in on the “dips”, this hasn’t been the case since December 12, when the market pulled back $3.87. That was a one-day swing too. Today’s price action suggests we’re seeking this level of volatility on an hourly basis now.

Traders Cite Rate Cuts and Geopolitics, but Supply Deficit Remains Key

Traders are saying the anticipation of more rate cuts by the Fed in 2026 and geopolitical risks are driving the current volatility. That’s fine for the short-run. Long-term, it’s the anticipation of a supply deficit and the listing of silver on the government’s list of critical minerals that’s going the major lifting.

Why This Rally Differs From the Late-1970s Silver Spike

But can it last? I think so. This rally is a lot different than the one I witnessed in the late 70’s. That was fueled by the Hunt Brothers trying to corner the market. It came to a screeching halt when COMEX ordered fully-priced margins. This rally is more structured and there are more players, who can afford the volatile price swings.