Barclays on Friday lowered its 2025 Brent oil price forecast by $9 per barrel to $74 per barrel, citing a softer demand outlook amid elevated economic uncertainty.
Brent crude futures were trading around $70 a barrel on Friday, after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CL1! was at around $67 a barrel.
“We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high-frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty,” analysts at Barclays said in a note.
“However, we do not turn bearish relative to the curve, as inventories are low and still declining, and risks to the supply outlook are also skewed to the downside, due to price-sensitive producers pulling back and geopolitical tensions,” it said.
The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the U.S. and weaker-than-expected global demand.
Barclays, which expects U.S. crude output to rise by 200,000 barrels per day by the end of the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, also lowered its oil demand outlook sharply and now expects growth of 900,000 barrels per day for the full year.
The EURJPY pair formed new decline yesterday to achieve the first negative target at 160.00, forming new additional support line, to push it to form temporary positive rebound and settle near 161.05.
Now, stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum and the stability of 161.60 barrier allow us to keep the negative overview, waiting to attack 160.00 level again, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations that might extend towards 159.30 and 158.85 levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 160.00 and 161.60
Gold price set to clinch second weekly gain, with eyes on $3,000.
US Dollar and Treasury yields rebound on government shutdown aversion news.
Gold price stays bullish as an ascending triangle breakout remains in play.
Gold price is hanging close to a new record high set on Thursday, biding time before the next move higher to clinch the $3,000 threshold for the first time.
Gold price primes for another leg up
Amid another record-rally, Gold price will likely book the second weekly gain, up roughly 2.5% so far this week. US President Donald Trump’s induced trade war, along with increased expectations of monetary policy easing by the US Federal Reserve (Fed), sponsored the Gold price upsurge.
However, Gold buyers appear to turn cautious as the recent rally paused just shy of the $3,000 psychological hurdle. Traders could use that as an excuse to take profits off the table on their Gold long positions before next week’s Fed policy announcements.
The renewed demand from the US Dollar (USD) and the US Treasury bond yields also act as a headwind to the upbeat momentum in Gold price. The improvement in risk sentiment on an aversion to the US government shutdown and hopes of a US-Canada trade truce diminish the demand for the US government bonds, lifting the US Treasury bond yields and the USD.
US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said late Thursday, “I will vote to keep the government open, and not shut it down.” Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said there will be another meeting next week between Canadian and American trade officials, following his meeting with US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
Doug added, “we’re having very productive conversations and they’re turning out very, very well.”
In the day ahead, it remains to be seen if risk sentiment remains in a sweet spot as escalating trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) could haunt markets, reviving the safe-haven appeal of the Gold price.
Amid an escalating trade war, the EU responded to blanket US tariffs on steel and aluminium by imposing a 50% tax on American whiskey exports, prompting Trump to threaten a 200% tariff on imports of European wines and spirits.
If fears over global trade war intensify, they will likely raise risks of a recession and the odds of the Fed lowering rates further, fuelling a fresh downswing in the USD while boosting Gold price to fresh lifetime highs.
Markets also weigh in on the US-Russia talks for a ceasefire in the Ukraine conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that he agreed in principle with US proposals to halt the fighting but said he wanted to address the “root causes of the conflict”.
“We need to discuss this with our American partners – perhaps a call with Donald Trump,” Putin added.
The US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data will play second fiddle to the tariff and geopolitical headlines heading into the weekend.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
Gold price confirmed an upside break of an ascending triangle formation after closing Thursday above the horizontal trendline resistance at $2,956.
Gold buyers need to scale the $3,000 psychological barrier to extend the record-rally toward the $3,050 mark.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits just beneath the overbought region, which is currently near 68 and keeps buyers hopeful.
Therefore, any retracement in Gold price will likely be quickly bought amid bargain hurting.
On a corrective downside, Gold price could challenge the previous triangle resistance-turned-support at $2,919.
The last line of defense for buyers is at the triangle support line, pegged at $2,898.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
GBP/USD stays below 1.2950 after posting small losses on Thursday.
Disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the UK make it difficult for Pound Sterling to gather strength.
The near-term technical outlook highlights a loss of bullish momentum.
After closing marginally lower on Thursday, GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades below 1.2950 in the European session on Friday. Although the near-term technical outlook is yet to point to a buildup of bearish momentum, the pair could have a difficult time staging a rebound after disappointing data releases from the UK.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the weakest against the Euro.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.37%
-0.12%
0.55%
0.37%
0.01%
-0.09%
0.51%
EUR
0.37%
0.22%
0.92%
0.76%
0.47%
0.25%
0.77%
GBP
0.12%
-0.22%
0.65%
0.50%
0.26%
-0.02%
0.62%
JPY
-0.55%
-0.92%
-0.65%
-0.18%
-0.47%
-0.72%
0.04%
CAD
-0.37%
-0.76%
-0.50%
0.18%
-0.40%
-0.46%
0.11%
AUD
-0.01%
-0.47%
-0.26%
0.47%
0.40%
-0.22%
0.35%
NZD
0.09%
-0.25%
0.02%
0.72%
0.46%
0.22%
0.68%
CHF
-0.51%
-0.77%
-0.62%
-0.04%
-0.11%
-0.35%
-0.68%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The data published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed early Friday that the UK’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contracted by 0.1% on a monthly basis in January. This reading followed the 0.4% growth recorded in December and came in below the market expectation for an expansion of 0.1%.
The ONS further reported that Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production fell by 0.9% and 1.1%, respectively, on a monthly basis. Both of these prints came in worse than analysts’ estimates, weighing on Pound Sterling.
The US economic calendar will feature the University of Michigan’s preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for March. A noticeable deterioration in consumer confidence could cause the US Dollar to come under pressure and allow GBP/USD to limit its losses.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures rise between 0.5% and 0.1% in the European session on Friday. So far, Pound Sterling has failed to benefit from improving risk mood. Nevertheless, a risk rally in the American session could hurt the USD and support GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD’s last candle on the 4-hour chart closed below the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator retreated to 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest.
On the downside, 1.2900 (round level, static level, mid-point of the ascending regression channel) aligns as first support before 1.2850 (static level) and 1.2800 (200-day SMA). Looking north, resistances could be spotted at 1.2970 (static level), 1.3000 (round level, static level) and 1.3040 (upper limit of the ascending channel).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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EUR/USD holds steady at around 1.0850 in the European session on Friday.
The technical outlook shows no signs of a buildup in directional momentum.
UoM Consumer Sentiment Index data will be featured in the US economic calendar.
EUR/USD seems to have entered a consolidation phase at around 1.0850 after closing the previous two days in negative territory. The pair’s near-term technical outlook fails to provide a directional clue.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.16%
-0.01%
0.66%
0.37%
0.05%
-0.05%
0.51%
EUR
0.16%
0.11%
0.79%
0.54%
0.29%
0.09%
0.55%
GBP
0.01%
-0.11%
0.63%
0.41%
0.18%
-0.07%
0.52%
JPY
-0.66%
-0.79%
-0.63%
-0.28%
-0.54%
-0.77%
-0.06%
CAD
-0.37%
-0.54%
-0.41%
0.28%
-0.37%
-0.42%
0.11%
AUD
-0.05%
-0.29%
-0.18%
0.54%
0.37%
-0.20%
0.32%
NZD
0.05%
-0.09%
0.07%
0.77%
0.42%
0.20%
0.64%
CHF
-0.51%
-0.55%
-0.52%
0.06%
-0.11%
-0.32%
-0.64%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) held its ground on Thursday as safe-haven flows continued to dominate the action in financial markets. Additionally, the data published by the US Department of Labor showed that the number of first-time applications for unemployment benefits declined slightly to 220,000 from 222,000 in the previous week.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said in a social media post on Thursday that he would seek to impose 200% tariffs on European wine and champagne imports. In response, French Finance Minister Eric Lombard said Trump’s threat to augment tariffs on French liquor imports were not surprising and called his actions an “idiotic war.”
In the second half of the day, the University of Michigan will publish the preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index data for March. A noticeable deterioration in consumer confidence could hurt the USD ahead of the weekend and help EUR/USD keep its footing.
Investors could also react to changes in risk perception. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.6% and 1%. A bullish action in Wall Street could make it difficult for the USD to outperform its rivals and open the door for a rebound in EUR/USD.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
EUR/USD retreated below the lower limit of the ascending regression channel and the Relative Strength Index fell slightly below 50, reflecting a lack of buyer interest. On the downside, 1.0800 (static level, round level) could be seen as next support before 1.0730 (200-day SMA).
In case EUR/USD holds steady above 1.0850 (static level), it could face next resistance at 1.0900 (round level, static level) ahead of 1.0940 (static level).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The GBPJPY pair ended the recent sideways fluctuation by providing positive close above the additional support at 190.60, to start reacting to stochastic positivity by rallying towards 192.30 now and reinforce the chances of renewing the bullish attempts.
Facing continuous positive pressures will assist to target 50% Fibonacci correction level at 193.25 soon, and breaching this barrier will confirm its preparation to achieve additional gains by rallying towards 193.80 and 194.40 levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 191.20 and 193.25
The EURJPY pair formed new decline yesterday to achieve the first negative target at 160.00, forming new additional support line, to push it to form temporary positive rebound and settle near 161.05.
Now, stochastic attempt to provide the negative momentum and the stability of 161.60 barrier allow us to keep the negative overview, waiting to attack 160.00 level again, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations that might extend towards 159.30 and 158.85 levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 160.00 and 161.60
Platinum price confirmed its surrender to the domination of the bullish bias by rallying above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 983.00$ yesterday, to notice forming new bullish waves and achieve the target at 998.00$.
The frequent stability above 983.00$ and the major indicators that provide the positive momentum will increase the efficiency of the bullish rally, to keep waiting to target new positive stations by targeting 1005.00$ followed by reaching the next barrier at 1017.00$.
The expected trading range for today is between 983.00$ and 1005.00$
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK economy.
Data revealed a 0.1% contraction in the UK economy.
Market participants expect the Bank of England to keep rates unchanged next week.
The GBP/USD price analysis indicates a weaker UK economy after data revealed an unexpected contraction. Meanwhile, market participants are grappling with the escalating global trade tensions as Trump continues his aggressive policy changes.
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The pound pulled back on Friday after data revealed a 0.1% contraction in the UK economy. This followed an expansion of 0.4%. Economists had expected the GDP to increase by 0.1%. The poor report might increase pressure on the Bank of England to lower borrowing costs. However, market participants expect the central bank to keep rates unchanged next week.
The BoE and other major central banks will likely proceed with caution due to uncertainty regarding the impact of Trump’s tariff. The US president has attacked many of its major trading partners with tariffs, igniting trade wars. The UK is yet to feel the pain of these tariffs like Canada and the Eurozone. However, Trump is not done. He intends to keep imposing tariffs that will affect more countries.
Meanwhile, data from the US on Thursday was mixed. Wholesale inflation came in lower than expected. On the other hand, unemployment claims missed forecasts, indicating increased demand for labor. Nevertheless, Fed rate cut expectations have risen significantly due to recent downbeat economic data.
On the technical side, the GBP/USD price has paused its steep rally near the 1.2951 resistance level. Although the price trades above the 30-SMA, it seems ready to break below. Meanwhile, the RSI has made a bearish divergence, indicating weaker bullish momentum.
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The price has maintained a bullish trend, trading mostly above the 30-SMA. However, every now and then, the price has broken below the SMA for a deeper pullback. With this, the uptrend has created a solid support trendline.
Therefore, a break below the SMA would not necessarily indicate a reversal. Instead, the price might need a deeper pullback. A retest of the support trendline will allow bulls to regain momentum and seek new highs. The trend will only reverse when the price breaks below this trendline.
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