May arabica coffee (KCK25) today is down -4.80 (-1.24%), and May ICE robusta coffee (RMK25) is down -91 (-1.68%).

Coffee prices today extended Thursday’s sharp losses on forecasts for rain in Brazil.   Somar Meteorologia said Thursday that dry and hot weather in Brazil for the rest of this week will give way to several days of showers next week, easing dry conditions.  

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Robusta coffee is also under pressure after Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported Thursday that Vietnam’s Feb coffee exports rose +6.6% y/y to 169,000 MT.  Also, the outlook for rain in Vietnam is weighing on coffee prices, with forecasts showing a chance of rain every day for the next week in Vietnam’s Central Highlands, the country’s largest coffee-growing region.  

A rebound in coffee inventories is bearish for coffee prices after ICE-monitored robusta coffee inventories rose to a 1-month high today of 4,356 lots.  Meanwhile, ICE-monitored arabica coffee inventories slid to a 9-1/4 month low on February 18 at 758,514 bags, although they have since recovered to a 2-week high of 809,128 bags as of last Thursday.

Last Monday,  Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s biggest arabica coffee growing area of Minas Gerais received 11.4 mm the week ended February 22, or 24% of the historical average.  This past Monday’s rain report was delayed by the Brazilian Carnival holiday.  Brazil is the world’s biggest arabica coffee growing country.

In a bullish factor, an increased percentage of Brazil’s coffee harvest has already been sold compared with previous years, meaning less supply is still available.  Safras & Mercado reported last Monday that producers sold 88% of Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee harvest as of February 11, faster than last year’s comparable year-earlier figure of 79% and the 5-year average of 82%.  Meanwhile, sales of the 2025/26 crop have been slow at 13% of the crop, well behind the 4-year average of 22%, which suggests a lack of new supply and an unwillingness of producers to sell.

Continued supply fears have supported coffee prices.  Cecafe reported on February 12 that Brazil’s January green coffee exports fell -1.6% y/y to 3.98 million bags.  Also, on January 28, Conab, Brazil’s government crop forecasting agency, forecasted that Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee crop would fall -4.4% y/y to a 3-year low of 51.81 million bags.  Conab also cut its 2024 Brazil coffee crop estimate by -1.1% to 54.2 million bags from a September estimate of 54.8 million bags.  

The impact of dry El Nino weather last year may lead to longer-term coffee crop damage in South and Central America.  Rainfall in Brazil has consistently been below average since last April, damaging coffee trees during the all-important flowering stage and reducing the prospects for Brazil’s 2025/26 arabica coffee crop.  Brazil has been facing the driest weather since 1981, according to the natural disaster monitoring center Cemaden.  Also, Colombia, the world’s second-largest arabica producer, is slowly recovering from the El Nino-spurred drought last year.

Robusta coffee prices are underpinned by reduced robusta production.  Due to drought, Vietnam’s coffee production in the 2023/24 crop year dropped by -20% to 1.472 MMT, the smallest crop in four years.  The USDA FAS on May 31 projected that Vietnam’s robusta coffee production in the new marketing year of 2024/25 will dip slightly to 27.9 million bags from 28 million bags in the 2023/24 season.  In addition, Vietnam’s General Statistics Office reported on January 10 that 2024 Vietnam coffee exports fell -17.1% y/y to 1.35 MMT.  Conversely, the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association on December 3 raised its 2024/25 Vietnam coffee production estimate to 28 million bags from an October estimate of 27 million bags.  

News of larger global coffee exports is bearish for prices.  Conab reported on February 4 that Brazil’s 2024 coffee exports rose +28.8% y/y to a record 50.5 million bags.   However, ICO reported on February 6 that Dec global coffee exports fell -12.4% y/y to 10.73 million bags, and Oct-Dec global coffee exports fell -0.8% y/y to 32.25 million bags.

The USDA’s biannual report on December 18 was mixed for coffee prices.  The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS) projected that world coffee production in 2024/25 will increase +4.0% y/y to 174.855 million bags, with a +1.5% increase in arabica production to 97.845 million bags and a +7.5% increase in robusta production to 77.01 million bags.  The USDA’s FAS forecasts that 2024/25 ending stocks will fall by -6.6% to a 25-year low of 20.867 million bags from 22.347 million bags in 2023/24.  Separately, the USDA’s FAS on November 22 projected Brazil’s 2024/25 coffee production at 66.4 MMT, below its previous forecast of 69.9 MMT.  The USDA’s FAS projects Brazil’s coffee inventories at 1.2 million bags at the end of the 2024/25 season in June, down -26% y/y.

For the 2025/26 marketing year, Volcafe on December 17 cut its 2025/26 Brazil arabica coffee production estimate to 34.4 million bags, down by about 11 million bags from a September estimate after a crop tour revealed the severity of an extended drought in Brazil.  Volcafe projects a global 2025/26 arabica coffee deficit of -8.5 million bags, wider than the -5.5 million bag deficit for 2024/25 and the fifth consecutive year of deficits. 

On the date of publication,

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Brent oil price faced strong negative pressures in the previous sessions to break 70.75$ and settle below it, noticing that the price attempts to rise again, approaching the mentioned level, while stochastic loses its positive momentum clearly to enter the overbought areas.

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Long-Term Support Being Tested

Recent support around $65.50 has some significance as it is near support from September of last year at $65.65, prior to the current decline, was the low price for crude oil since May of 2023. Following the 2023 low traded price, crude oil rallied to a peak of $95.50 before progressing lower and establishing a slow downtrend of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Therefore, the drop to $65.50 recently established a slightly new low for the bear trend.

There are reasons to believe that support may be retained at that low and lead to at least a bounce before being challenged again. For one, the bearish correction from the $80.76 mid-January high was the deepest bearish correction of the prior four larger corrections, but not by much. There was an 18.3% decline from an August swing high, which was the largest decline of the four.

Rally Above 20-Day MA Would Show Strength

Although a bullish signal will be generated on a breakout of the double bottom, a potentially significant resistance zone is slightly higher from around $68.74 to $68.82. However, the 20-Day MA trend indicator, currently at $69.26, marks a more significant price area, along with a downtrend line. Since it is falling the 20-Day line may be within the price zone by the time it is approached. Subsequently, a lower swing high is at $70.81.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Short Term Bull Trend at Risk

Support around the 50-Day MA was successfully tested as support during the prior bearish decline following the January swing high. Therefore, if the trend breakdown continues lower then natural gas looks to be targeting the 50-Day MA (orange), now at $3.83. A sustained decline below the 20-Day MA enhances the potential for a test of support of the next higher moving average. There is also potential support around the recent swing low at $3.74.

It is joined by the 61.8% retracement at $3.72. A decline below that low will trigger a bearish reversal of the short bull trend that began from the late-January swing low at $2.99. Notice that the 20-Day MA has stayed above the 50-Day line since the 20-Day crossed above the 50-Day in September of last year, other than for a brief period recently. The bullish crossover followed a swing low at $1.88 in late August, which began a new upswing of a larger developing bull trend.

Trend Slope Adjustment

Also, since the immediate trendline may have been broken, the next lower trendline becomes a potential target. Notice that the lower rising trendlines show an acceleration in bullish momentum as the uptrend from the February 2024 bottom progressed. The most recent trendline shows an unsustainable rate of price appreciation. Since there has been a clearly bearish reaction following another test of resistance around the top of a rising parallel trend channel, there is the possibility that the next lower trendline may be tested before the current decline is complete.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price aims to break above the key resistance of $33.40 due to multiple tailwinds.
• The US CPI and PPI cooled down at a faster-than-expected pace in February.
• The tariff policy of US President Trump has strengthened safe-haven bets.

Silver price (XAG/USD) trades close to near the monthly high of $33.40 in North American trading hours on Thursday. The white metal strengthens as cooling United States (US) consumer and producer inflationary pressures pave the way for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates in the June policy meeting.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) report showed that the headline and core producer inflation decelerated at a faster-than-expected pace to 3.2% and 3.4%, respectively, in 12 months to February. Month-on-month headline PPI remained flat while the core figure deflated by 0.1%.

On Wednesday, the US headline and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.8% and 3.1%, respectively, in February slower than their estimates and their prior releases.

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the restrictive monetary policy stance won’t long last “if the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation falls more than expected”. The scenario of lower interest rates by the Fed bodes well for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

On the global front, escalating economic risks due to US President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda have also improved the safe-haven demand of the Silver price. On Wednesday, Trump confirmed that he will respond to counter-tariffs from the European Union (EU). Such a scenario would result in the EU-US trade war, which will diminish the risk appetite of investors significantly.

The cautious market sentiment has also increased the safe-haven demand of the US Dollar (USD) but US economic risks and soft CPI report have capped its upside. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, rises to near 103.80 from its four-month low of 103.20, which it posted on Tuesday.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price trades near the horizontal border of the Ascending Triangle chart pattern on a daily timeframe, which is placed from the February 14 high of $33.40. The upward-sloping border is placed from the December 31 low of $28.78. The above-mentioned chart pattern indicates indecisiveness among market participants.

The 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near $32.30, continues to support the Silver price.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbs above 60.00. A bullish momentum would trigger if the RSI sustains above that level.

Looking down, the psychological level of $30.00 will act as key support for the Silver price. While, the October 22 high of $34.87 will be the major barrier.

Silver daily chart

• Gold prices rose to an all-time high past $2,980 on Thursday.
• The US Dollar added to Wednesday’s uptick and hit weekly tops.
• Rising uncertainty around US tariffs continue to support safe haven demand.

Gold prices (XAU/USD) advanced for a third consecutive day on Thursday, soaring to all-time highs past the $2,980 mark per troy ounce and setting the stage for a potential test of the psychological $3,000 threshold.

The precious metal’s steady climb has entered its second straight week, with gold posting gains in the first three months of the new year. Looking at the bigger picture, the yellow metal has only recorded monthly losses four times since 2024.

Tariff chaos and cooling inflation boost Gold

Since President Trump’s inauguration on January 20, US trade policy has taken center stage. However, the lack of a clear direction—highlighted by announcements of new tariffs followed by abrupt reversals—has heightened uncertainty among market participants, who see the administration’s trade stance as anything but firm.

This ongoing back-and-forth in the tariff narrative has driven investors toward safe-haven assets, giving gold an extra push and bringing the $3,000 milestone into sight.

Meanwhile, US inflation gauges—both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI)—eased slightly in February, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could resume its easing cycle in the near future. On the flip side, softening inflation also suggests a slowing economy, bolstering concerns about a possible recession in light of recent weakness in US fundamentals.

Peace talks: A potential headwind?

For now, negotiations aimed at ending the Russia-Ukraine conflict are ongoing, but no concrete outcome has emerged. Should a ceasefire scenario materialize, gold could face a setback as the removal of geopolitical risk might prompt a move back into riskier assets.

Gold’s short-term technical outlook 

Gold’s next big target on the upside is its record high of $2,983 reached on March 13. Should these levels be breached, Fibonacci projections point to potential milestones at $3,254, $3,396, and $3,600. 

On the downside, the first line of defense lies at the weekly low of $2,832 (February 28), followed by the interim 55-day and 100-day SMAs t $2,805 and $2,741, respectively. Down from here emerges the ky 200-day SMA at $2,610, which precedes the November’s low of $2,536 (November 14).

While the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains on the rise beyond 67, the Average Directional Index (ADX) near 25 indicates a fairly decent strength of the trend.

Gold daily chart