• Silver drifts lower on Thursday and snaps a three-day winning streak to over a one-week high.
• The technical setup favors bulls and supports prospects for the emergence of some dip-buying. 
• A convincing break and acceptance below the 100-day EMA would negate the positive outlook.

Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Thursday and erodes a part of its weekly gains registered over the past three days. The white metal currently trades above mid-$32.00s, down 0.35% for the day, though the near-term bias seems tilted in favor of bullish traders and supports prospects for a further appreciating move.

From a technical perspective, the XAG/USD showed some resilience below the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) last Friday. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have again started gaining positive traction on the daily chart and validate the near-term constructive outlook for the commodity. Hence, a subsequent strength towards the $33.00 mark, en route to the February monthly swing high, around the $33.40 area, looks like a distinct possibility. 

The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the $33.60-$33.70 region, above which the XAG/USD could aim to reclaim the $34.00 round figure and climb further towards the $34.50-$34.55 zone. The momentum could extend further towards the highest level since October 2012, closer to the $35.00 psychological mark touched in October 2024. 

On the flip side, the $32.30-$32.25 horizontal resistance breakpoint now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $32.00 mark. This is followed by the $31.80 support, below which the XAG/USD could fall to the $31.25-$31.20 region before dropping to the 100-day EMA, currently pegged near the $31.10-$31.00 area. Some follow-through selling below last week’s swing low, around the $30.80 area, would shift the bias in favor of bearish traders.

Silver daily chart

The NZDUSD price provided clear positive trades yesterday, as it breached 0.5655$ level to reach the key resistance 0.5738$ and settle around it, to hint the attempt to return to the correctional bullish track, but we notice that the RSI lost its positive momentum and might push the price to decline again.

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Oil prices will likely remain around current levels or even lower this year, analysts and economists in the monthly Reuters poll said last week.

Sufficient oil supply and spare capacity within the OPEC+ group will be enough to keep prices in the low $70s per barrel, the experts said.

Supply shocks would be balanced out with the 5 million barrels per day (bpd) of spare capacity that OPEC+ currently has, mostly within the Middle Eastern producers in OPEC.

Major trade and geopolitical developments since last week are likely to put additional downward pressure on oil prices—the tariffs on Canada and Mexico and the higher tariff on Chinese imports into the U.S., and the possibility of some eased sanctions on Russia.

The four dozen analysts participating in the Reuters poll last week saw Brent Crude prices averaging $74.63 per barrel in 2025, slightly higher compared to the forecast of $74.57 in January. For WTI Crude, analysts expect an average 2025 price of $70.66 per barrel, up from $70.40 in January.

At the time the survey was carried out, oil prices were more or less trading around these levels.

But early this week, oil slumped after the Trump Administration confirmed that tariffs on Canada and Mexico are going ahead as planned on March 4, and the tariff on Chinese goods is lifted to 20% from 10%. Canada and Mexico tariffs are at 25%, with Canadian energy facing a lower, 10%, import tariff.

Economic Fallout from Tariffs

On the first trading day of March, major Wall Street indexes turned sharply lower after the Trump Administration announced that the tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and higher levies on China are going into effect on Tuesday.

The S&P 500 index fell by nearly 2% for the steepest one-day drop so far this year. The broad-based index has erased nearly all the 6% gain since Election Day and is now only 1% higher compared to early November when President Donald Trump was elected. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) slumped by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq composite dipped by 2.6%.

The rally in the weeks since November has been largely due to hopes that the Trump Administration would boost U.S. businesses and the economy.

But tariffs could undermine the growth plans of many businesses, and the economy is likely to slow down, analysts say.

A weakening economy, the world’s largest at that, could dampen oil demand in the U.S. and globally—that’s why the market hasn’t been very bullish about oil prices in recent weeks.

Some estimates have even started to point to the U.S. economy contracting in the first quarter. The GDPNow model of Atlanta Fed, not an official forecast but a running estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data, shows a forecast of real annual GDP growth for Q1 at a negative -2.8% on March 3, down from a -1.5% forecast on February 28. The estimate was revised down after releases from the US Census Bureau and the Institute for Supply Management. The GDPNow forecast of first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real private fixed investment growth fell from 1.3% and 3.5%, respectively, to 0.0% and 0.1%.

Supply and Demand Uncertainties

Amid all the tariff noise, forecasters have not downgraded—yet—their estimates of global oil demand growth this year. Demand is generally expected to rise by between 1 million bpd and 1.4 million bpd, with OPEC being the most bullish with 1.4 million bpd growth projection for both 2025 and 2026.

The “healthier oil market outlook”, OPEC said on Monday, allowed the OPEC+ producers to “proceed with a gradual and flexible return of the 2.2 mbd voluntary adjustments starting on 1st April, 2025, while remaining adaptable to evolving conditions.”

Initially, OPEC+ will return 138,000 bpd to the market in April, the group confirmed this week, but noted that the increase may be paused or reversed subject to market conditions.

The gradual return of OPEC+ supply and the expected non-OPEC+ output growth this year are set to keep oil from price spikes, analysts say.

The U.S. “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran with the goal to reduce Iranian oil exports to zero could be offset by lower demand growth in case of economic downturn and potential easing of some U.S. sanctions on Russia as the Trump Administration pivoted from supporting Ukraine to siding with Moscow about possible pathways to end the war. 

Risk-Off Oil Market Sentiment

With all the unknowns about the tariff fallout on economies and oil trade flows due to sanctions being tightened on some and eased on others, money managers and other hedge funds are currently in a risk-off mood and are dumping bullish positions in the two most traded petroleum futures contracts, Brent and WTI.

In the week to February 25, selling of crude oil was “particularly aggressive,” Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, said on Monday in a commentary on the latest Commitment of Traders report.

The U.S. benchmark contract, WTI Crude, saw the biggest selling spree, not only in the latest reporting week, but also in the past five weeks.

The net long position – the difference between bullish and bearish bets – in WTI slumped to the lowest level in nearly 15 years, at 67,600 contracts at end-February, down from 250,000 contracts hedge funds held as of January 21.

“During this five-week period, the combined net long in WTI (CME and ICE) and Brent has almost halved to 260k contracts, as the technical outlook continued to deteriorate amid worries about a global trade war’s impact on demand and OPEC+ considers when to start tapering production cuts,” Hansen said.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

XAU/USD Current price: $2,929.08

• Trade war tensions and poor United States data put the USD into sell-off mode.
• The European Central Bank will announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday.
• XAU/USD resumed its advance and aims to retest record highs.

XAU/USD trades near a fresh weekly high of $2,929.65, with higher highs in sight. The bright metal benefited from the broad US Dollar’s (USD) weakness, the latter affected by tepid United States (US) data and President Donald Trump’s massive tariffs on trade partners.

President Trump addressed Congress late on Tuesday and played down the potential negative effects of his latest round of tariffs. “. There’ll be a little disturbance, but we’re okay with that. It won’t be much,” Trump said, adding that reciprocal tariffs on trading partners will come into effect on April 2

Still, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggested Trump’s administration may reduce or even roll back tariffs on the two neighbouring countries, spurring risk appetite throughout the first half of the day and harming the USD.

The Greenback fell further after the release of the US  ADP Employment Change report, showing that the private sector added 77K new positions in February, much worse than the previous 183K or the expected 140K. The ISM Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), on the other contrary, jumped to 53.5 in February from 52.8 in the previous month while surpassing expectations of 52.6.

The focus now shifts to the European Central Bank (ECB) expected to deliver another 25 basis points (bps) interest rates cut when it announces its decision on monetary policy on Thursday.  Other than that, investors will keep an eye on trade-war developments.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

The daily chart for XAU/USD shows it trades around its daily opening, while an intraday dip was quickly reverted, suggesting buyers are taking advantage of dips. The same chart shows Gold develops above all its moving averages, with a flat 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing near-term support at around $2,906.25. Technical indicators, in the meantime, have turned directionless, with the Momentum indicator stuck around its 100 level.

The near-term picture shows the risk skews to the upside. In the 4-hour chart, the XAU/USD pair is holding at the upper end of its recent range while advancing above all its moving averages. A bullish 20 SMA provides intraday support in the $2,890 area while advancing below a still flat 100 SMA. Finally, technical indicators turned firmly north within positive levels, reflecting persistent buying interest.

Support levels: 2,894.25 2,876.90 2,858.70  

Resistance levels: 2,927.90 2,941.40 2,956.10

Above $4.55 Triggers Trend Breakout

If the $4.55 price level is exceeded, then natural gas could reach the next higher target zone around $4.70 to $4.72. Subsequently, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the full decline that began from the 2022 peak of $10.03 is at $4.77. Since that measurement is based on a long-term pattern, it is potentially significant with a good chance that strong resistance might be seen there.

Rising ABCD Pattern Formed

The advance from the late-January swing low of $2.99 is in its second leg up following a clear test of support on Monday at the day’s low of $3.74. That low generated a higher swing low. There is the confluence of several indicators identifying the $3.74 price zone as potentially significant support. Given the sharp advance since that swing low. Including a breakout to a new trend high yesterday, natural gas seems to be indicating it may go higher and possibly break out to a new trend high.

When adding a rising ABCD pattern (purple) to the current advance, it shows a potential initial target at the 78.6% extension of $4.93. Whether it is reached or not, the ABCD pattern shows the potential for higher prices. Possible targets from the ABCD pattern are identified when there is price symmetry between the CD leg of the pattern and the AB leg, or a harmonic relationship between the two swings. The targets identify potential resistance levels.

Drop Below $4.23 May Lead Lower

Alternatively, a decline below today’s low of $4.23 will show short-term weakness that could lead to a lower pullback to test support levels. Tuesday’s low at $4.06 could see support and if it fails, a test of the 20-Day MA at $3.88 currently, becomes possible.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver price strives to break above $32.40, getting support from the global trade war consistently.
• Growing concerns over the US economic outlook have weighed on the US Dollar.
• Soft ADP Employment data for February would prompt Fed dovish bets.

Silver price (XAG/USD) struggles to extend its upside above the key resistance of $32.40 in Wednesday’s North American session. The white metal remains broadly firm as United States (US) President Donald Trump-led-global trade war has intensified due to counter-tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico.

Escalating trade war tensions have increased uncertainty over the global economic outlook. Such a scenario improves the appeal of precious metals such as Silver.

Meanwhile, a sharp sell-off in the US Dollar (USD) is also a favorable scenario for the Silver price. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, plunges to near 104.50, the lowest level seen in almost four months. The Greenback weakens as investors worry about the US economic outlook due to escalating tariff war.

During North American trading hours on Wednesday, weak US ADP Employment Change data for February has also weighed on the US Dollar. The ADP reported that private employers added 77K fresh workers, lower than estimates of 140K and the former release of 186K. Soft labor demand in the US private sector is expected to prompt Fed dovish bets, which had already increased lately.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the likelihood for the Fed to reduce interest rates in June has increased to 85% from 70% recorded a week ago.

Silver technical analysis

Silver price moves higher to near the key resistance of $32.40 plotted from the December 12 high. The asset climbs above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around $31.85.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting a sideways trend.

Looking down, the upward-sloping trendline from the August 8 low of $26.45 will act as key support for the Silver price around $30.00. While, the February 14 high of $33.40 will be the key barrier.

Silver daily chart