During the trading session on Monday, we’ve seen the euro gap higher to kick off the trading session, pull back a bit, and then rally again before giving up a little bit of momentum right around the 158 yen level.
The 158 yen level is a minor area of support resistance.
The most important, I believe at least at this juncture is the 155 yen area of the chart has been a hard floor for some time and I think it probably continues to be so going forward.
Now the question of course is going to be whether or not we can continue this momentum And I think we probably can maybe not so much Because of the euro, but I think because of the yen.
Yen Overdone
The yen is overdone, has been for a while against most currencies, and therefore it’s a little bit of a knock on effect. Let’s be honest here, the yen moves in the same general direction against almost every currency at the same time. So therefore, I think it’s probably only a matter of time before the euro goes looking to the 160 yen level. The 160 yen level also has the 50 day EMA hanging around as well.
So I do think we’ve got a situation where we might be in a bit of a range, but if we can break above the 160 yen level, that would obviously be very bullish. That would allow the Euro to really take off after forming a massive W pattern. I think given enough time though, we’ve got a situation where you’re probably going to see more of a “buy on the dips” type of market and it’s probably going to be very choppy and noisy. I don’t necessarily think we get a clean move here despite the fact that Monday was so strong.
XAG/USD reclaims $31.50, as tariff uncertainty lifts demand.
Silver rebounds after dipping below 50-day SMA, now targeting $32.00.
Trump confirms March 4 tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, fueling safe-haven demand.
A daily close above $31.50 could pave the way for a retest of $33.20.
Silver price recovers, climbs above the $31.50 mark on Monday as the Greenback depreciates sharply across the board. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China would begin on March 4, according to US President Donald Trump in a press conference held at the Oval Office. This and the drop in US Treasury bond yields keep XAG/USD trading at $31.67, gaining over 1.76%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver price rebound after dipping below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $30.93, before reclaiming $31.00. On its way to the current spot price, XAG/USD climbed past the 100-day SMA at $31.21, exacerbating Silver’s advance past the $31.50 area.
If XAG/USD closes on a daily basis above the latter, it would be poised to challenge key resistance levels like the $32.00 mark, and the February 20 peak at $33.20.
Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $31.50, the immediate support would be the 50-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA at $30.43.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
GBP/USD holds above 1.2700 after posting strong gains on Monday.
The US Dollar stays under pressure on growing fears of a recession.
Technical buyers could remain interested once 1.2700 is confirmed as support.
GBP/USD benefited from the broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) and gained about 1% on Monday. The pair continues to stretch higher in the European session on Tuesday and trades at its highest level since mid-December above 1.2700.
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The USD weakened against its major rivals on Monday as the disappointing macroeconomic data releases from the US and US President Donald Trump’s tariffs revived fears over an economic downturn in the US.
The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) declined to 50.3 in February from 50.9 in January. Additionally, the Employment Index of the PMI survey dropped to 47.6 from 50.3 in the same period, highlighting a contraction in the sector’s payrolls. Other data from the US showed that Construction Spending fell by 0.2% on a monthly basis in January.
The Trump administration’s 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, as well as the additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports, went into effect on Tuesday. Canada and China introduced retaliatory measures, opening the door for a deepening trade war that could further weigh on the US economic outlook.
The US economic calendar will not feature any high-tier data releases on Tuesday. In the second half of the day, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers will be delivering speeches. In case Fed officials adopt a cautious tone on growth prospects, citing the trade policy, the USD could continue to weaken and help GBP/USD extend its uptrend.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD was last seen trading in the upper half of its two-month-old uptrend. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays above 60, reflecting the bullish stance.
On the upside, 1.2750 (static level) aligns as first resistance before 1.2790 (200-day Simple Moving Average(SMA)) and 1.2820 (upper limit of the ascending channel). Looking south, the immediate support could be spotted at 1.2700 (mid-point of the ascending channel, static level) ahead of 1.2630 (100-day SMA) and 1.2570 (lower limit of the ascending channel, 20-day SMA).
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Adobe’s stock price (ADBE) edged higher in the intraday levels while trying to recoup some recent losses, as it vented off oversold saturation in the RSI, while still suffering negative from trading below the 50-day SMA, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the medium term, while trading alongside the secondary short-term trend line.
Therefore we expect the stock to return lower, targeting the support of $403.75, provided the resistance of $465.70 holds on.
The GBPCAD price reacted to the positive factors represented by leaning within the bullish channel in addition to the continuous positive momentum coming by the major indicators, to notice forming new bullish rally recently and surpass 1.8235 recorded high to start recording new gains by reaching 1.8445.
Note that stochastic continuous fluctuation within the overbought areas might increase the chances of gaining the required additional positive momentum to target more positive stations, to expect targeting 1.8470 as a first additional station, followed by reaching the bullish channel’s resistance line at 1.8600.
The expected trading range for today is between 1.8340 and 1.8470
Platinum price started to get the positive momentum, to start covering the recently suffered losses, noticing its fluctuation near the MA55 at 959.00$.
Note that succeeding to hold above 950.00$ will increase the chances of providing new bullish trades, to attempt to record additional gains by targeting 971.00$ and 983.00$ levels, while settling below 950.00$ again will force it to activate the negative attack, to suffer many losses by moving towards 935.00$ first,
The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 971.00$
No news for copper price, to continue providing slow sideways trades by settling near 4.5400$, affected by the contradiction between the major indicators until this moment, reminding you that the frequent stability below 4.6800$ barrier reinforces the chances of resuming the negative correction that might target 4.3900$ level soon, followed by reaching the minor bullish channels’ support line at 4.3200$.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.3900$ and 4.5600$
Platinum price started to get the positive momentum, to start covering the recently suffered losses, noticing its fluctuation near the MA55 at 959.00$.
Note that succeeding to hold above 950.00$ will increase the chances of providing new bullish trades, to attempt to record additional gains by targeting 971.00$ and 983.00$ levels, while settling below 950.00$ again will force it to activate the negative attack, to suffer many losses by moving towards 935.00$ first,
The expected trading range for today is between 950.00$ and 971.00$
Brent oil price traded with strong negativity yesterday to surpass our first target at 72.70$ and reach the thresholds of the second waited target at 71.25$, and we believe that the way is open to continue the decline on the intraday and short-term basis, as we suggest breaking the last level to open the way to continue the bearish trend in the upcoming period.
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Bonk’s currency price returned lower in the intraday levels, confirming the breach of the pivotal support of $0.00001506, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the short term, with negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA, while the price managed to vent off oversold saturation in the RSI.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided it settles below $0.00001506, targeting the support of $0.0000218.
