Brent oil price traded with strong negativity yesterday to surpass our first target at 72.70$ and reach the thresholds of the second waited target at 71.25$, and we believe that the way is open to continue the decline on the intraday and short-term basis, as we suggest breaking the last level to open the way to continue the bearish trend in the upcoming period.
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Bonk’s currency price returned lower in the intraday levels, confirming the breach of the pivotal support of $0.00001506, amid the dominance of the main downward trend in the short term, with negative pressure from trading below the 50-day SMA, while the price managed to vent off oversold saturation in the RSI.
Therefore we expect more losses for the price, provided it settles below $0.00001506, targeting the support of $0.0000218.
Gold price consolidates the previous rebound near $2,900 level early Tuesday.
US economic growth woes outweigh global tariff war fears, weighing on the US Dollar, and US Treasury yields.
Gold price battles 21-day SMA at $2,900 while the daily RSI still holds above the midline.
Gold price is treading water below $2,900 early Tuesday, consolidating the recent upswing before the next push higher.
Gold price stays supported by trade war fears
Markets remain risk-averse as a global tariff war seems inevitable, with US President Donald Trump affirming 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico effective on Tuesday while he already signed the order to raise China tariffs to 20%.
In response, China’s Commerce Ministry and the Canadian prime minister’s office confirmed retaliatory tariffs on the US, triggering a tit-for-tat situation, which could translate into a full-fledged trade war.
Additionally, risks of the US economy tipping into recession have heightened amid increased expectations of Trump’s tariffs-led higher inflationary pressures and falling investors’ confidence. The Atlanta Fed GDP tracker now is at -2.8%, having reported a 5% collapse in two business days. Meanwhile, US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.3 in February, down from 50.9, missing expectations of 50.8. This was due to a sharp drop in new orders, which plunged from 55.1 to 48.6.
US recession fears fuelled a tech sell-off on Wall Street on Monday, prompting investors to run for cover in the traditional safe-haven Gold price as the US Dollar (USD) was sold off into the gloomy US economic outlook. US Treasury bond yields tumbled to the lowest level in five months, allowing Gold price to rebound toward the $2,900 threshold.
However, it remains to be seen if Gold price can regain that level as the USD could find fresh haven demand should risk aversion intensify in the sessions ahead. That said, geopolitical tensions will continue to play their part, cushioning any downside in the bright metal.
CNN News reported on Monday that US President Trump ordered military aid to Ukraine to be paused after his Friday Oval Office argument with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. This put the US at crossfires with his European allies like Britain and France, who made clear their support for Zelensky at a summit in London on Sunday.
On Sunday, European leaders agreed to draft a peace plan on the Ukraine conflict to present to Washington.
Markets also remain wary as attention turns to the US employment data due later this week, which could significantly impact the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate-cut outlook, influencing the value of the USD and the Gold price action in the near term.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
The daily chart shows that Gold price has stalled its latest move higher at the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $2,900.
The recovery will likely gain traction only on acceptance above that level on a daily candlestick closing basis.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned slightly lower but holds well above the 50 level, suggesting that the upside bias remains intact.
The February 26 high of $2,930 will be on their radars if the 21-day SMA at $2,900 is taken out sustainably.
The next topside barrier is seen at an all-time high of $2,956.
If sellers refuse to step aside, the immediate support is seen at the $2,850 psychological barrier, below which the $2,835 demand area will be retested.
Additional declines will challenge the $2,800 round level.
Tariffs FAQs
Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas.
Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers.
There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs.
During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.
Hedera Hashgraph’s currency price (HBARUSD) fell in the intraday levels while trying to gather positive momentum and shake off negative pressure from the 50-day SMA, as it also vented off overbought saturation in the RSI, with the price buoyed by a positive pattern that formed in the short term, the Falling Wedge pattern.
Therefore we expect the price to gain ground, provided it settles above $0.23178, targeting the pivotal resistance of $0.39200.
Strong support was seen from the day’s low of $3.74. It is a price area discussed over the past week or so as being potentially a significant support zone since it marks an area of confluence. The 20-MA is at $3.76, there is a 50% retracement level at $3.73, and the 50-Day MA line is at $3.73. Given the bullish reaction, it looks clear that the price zone was recognized. Therefore, a bearish retracement might have completed today, opening the way for a continuation towards resistance at recent highs and possibly new trend highs.
Bearish Retracement Looks Complete
The next sign of strength will be on a rally above the five-day high and prior interim swing high at $4.19. That is also a weekly high from last week. There is then a potential resistance zone from the January high at $4.37 to the February high at $4.48. It is interesting to note that the recent pullback took a form like a falling bullish wedge. A bull breakout triggered today.
This puts natural gas in a bullish position to possibly reach new trend highs. The next higher target is a 50% retracement of a previous interim decline at $4.56. Note the resistance was seen around a top trend channel line at each of the recent swing highs. Nonetheless, depending on how prices rise, natural gas could hit the 50% retracement target and stay below potential resistance around the top trendline.
For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.
XAG/USD reclaims $31.50, as tariff uncertainty lifts demand.
Silver rebounds after dipping below 50-day SMA, now targeting $32.00.
Trump confirms March 4 tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, fueling safe-haven demand.
A daily close above $31.50 could pave the way for a retest of $33.20.
Silver price recovers, climbs above the $31.50 mark on Monday as the Greenback depreciates sharply across the board. Tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China would begin on March 4, according to US President Donald Trump in a press conference held at the Oval Office. This and the drop in US Treasury bond yields keep XAG/USD trading at $31.67, gaining over 1.76%.
XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook
Silver price rebound after dipping below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $30.93, before reclaiming $31.00. On its way to the current spot price, XAG/USD climbed past the 100-day SMA at $31.21, exacerbating Silver’s advance past the $31.50 area.
If XAG/USD closes on a daily basis above the latter, it would be poised to challenge key resistance levels like the $32.00 mark, and the February 20 peak at $33.20.
Conversely, if XAG/USD drops below $31.50, the immediate support would be the 50-day SMA, followed by the 200-day SMA at $30.43.
XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily
Silver FAQs
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
Tepid United States macroeconomic data undermined demand for the US Dollar.
Geopolitical tensions and looming tariffs boosting the bright metal.
XAU/USD extends its recovery, but another leg north not yet confirmed.
Spot Gold found an interim bottom at $2,832.56 on Friday, bouncing from the level ahead of the weekly close and extending its recovery on Monday. The XAU/USD pair trades around $2,885, up on broad US Dollar (USD) weakness. Financial markets kick-stated the week in optimistic mode, helped by macroeconomic data released throughout the first half of the day. The bright metal, in the meantime, found support on geopolitical woes.
On the one hand, Chinese NBS Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) were better than anticipated in February, with index output up to 50.2 from 49.1 in January, while the non-manufacturing index rose to 50.4 from 50.2. Additionally, S&P Global released the final estimates of the February Manufacturing PMI for major economies, upwardly revising most of them.
On the other hand, tensions between the United States (US) and Ukraine persist after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy abruptly left a meeting with US President Donald Trump on Friday. As a result, Eastern European nations aligned beyond Ukraine on fears the US will retrieve its support.
The USD extended its slide after the US reported that the official ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February from 50.9 in January, also missing expectations of 50.5. The bright metal, in the meantime, was underpinned by headlines indicating that US President Donald Trump is meeting with his aides to discuss canceling military aid to Ukraine.
Meanwhile, US tariffs of 25% on Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on China are due to come into effect on Tuesday. Trump would decide on this matter later in the day. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick said Canada and Mexico have done a “good job” on the border, while adding they still need to tackle the fentanyl issue.
XAU/USD short-term technical outlook
From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD pair shows the ongoing recovery is not enough to anticipate a recovery towards record highs. The pair is trading well above bullish 100 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), yet the 20 SMA provides dynamic resistance at around $2,899.50. Technical indicators, in the meantime, turned higher but hover around their midlines with uneven strength, overall remaining neutral.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, the risk skews to the upside, although additional confirmations are required. Technical indicators aim firmly higher, recovering from oversold readings yet currently battling their midlines. The same chart shows buyers appeared around a bullish 200 SMA, while a flat 100 SMA provides resistance at around $2,910.
Renewed selling pressures on the euro against the US dollar EUR/USD with losses around the support level of 1.0375 at the beginning of this week’s trading coincide with the anticipation of financial markets and investors for the European Central Bank’s announcement of interest rates and then the announcement of US employment figures.
Last week, according to licensed trading companies’ platforms, the euro dollar price rose to the resistance level of 1.0528, but disappointment in resolving the Russian Ukrainian crisis after Trump’s meeting with the Ukrainian president last week contributed to renewed euro selling operations.
European Events Affecting the Euro’s Performance
According to the economic calendar data, the consumer price index in the eurozone is expected to reach 2.3% on an annual basis compared to 2.5% previously, while the core consumer price index is expected to reach 2.6% on an annual basis compared to 2.7% previously. There is some risk aversion in the markets, so the weak report is likely to ease some inflation concerns and give the ECB more confidence to continue easing policy. However, the higher-than-expected numbers are likely to keep markets on edge. The market is expecting a total of 87 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
This week, the European Central Bank is also expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the interest rate to 2.50%. furthermore, we will get the Eurozone’s flash CPI report two days before the meeting, so it is likely to shape their future sentiment. There has been growing concern among some ECB officials about easing interest rates too quickly amid high services price inflation (which has been stuck at around 4% since November 2023) and a tight labour market.
US Tariff Path and Market Impact
The tariffs imposed by US President Trump on major US trading partners are scheduled to take effect in the coming days. Furthermore, investors have been trying to determine potential winners and losers for weeks. Markets were shaken last week after Trump said that tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, would take effect. Recently, he announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium and 25% tariffs on goods from the European Union.
Trading Tips:
The euro’s gains will remain vulnerable to a rapid collapse, especially if Trump’s policies hurt the eurozone economy, which is already suffering from other factors and the US dollar has more strength factors.
France’s Credit Rating Downgrade
Continuing the increasing pressure on the Euro’s performance in Forex market trading, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings placed a negative outlook on its creditworthiness assessment of France, confirming the continued uncertainty about the country’s finances after a long period of political turmoil. The rating agency said in a statement issued late Friday that the change in outlook reflects “rising government debt amid weak political consensus to address France’s large underlying budget deficit, against a backdrop of uncertain economic growth prospects.”
Standard & Poor’s maintained its AA- rating for France, seven notches above junk bonds and in line with the Czech Republic and Slovenia. Standard & Poor’s decision comes as France adopted its 2025 budget this month after a gruelling parliamentary battle that led to the government’s collapse in December. The final finance bill aims to reduce the deficit to 5.4% of economic output this year from 6% in 2024 – a less ambitious adjustment than the initial plan to reduce it to 5%.
The French Finance Ministry said in a statement that the 2025 budget represents a “historic turning point” in efforts to reduce the budget deficit and control debt. The ministry added, “The negative outlook reminds us of the scale of the challenge of reforming our public finances, a challenge that the government is determined to face.”
Standard & Poor’s expects France’s gross domestic product growth to fall below 1% this year, further straining the fiscal outlook.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
According to the daily chart trading, the EUR/USD price movement around and below the support level of 1.0360 threatens the recently formed upward channel and portends an upcoming move by bears to lower support levels, with the closest being 1.0280 and 1.0200, respectively. Technically, these are sufficient to push technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicator towards strong oversold levels. Conversely, and over the same time frame, the resistance levels of 1.0550 and 1.0640 will remain the most important to begin strengthening the recently formed upward channel. So far, the EUR/USD sell-from-every-upward-level trading strategy is the strongest.
Weather forecasts remain a key bearish factor. Maxar Technologies projects above-normal temperatures from March 10-14 across the Rockies to the Atlantic, limiting heating demand. This follows an earlier February rally driven by storage tightness, but with winter demand winding down, concerns over consumption are resurfacing.
Lower-48 gas demand fell to 80.2 Bcf/d last Friday, marking a 10.3% year-over-year decline. Without a late-season cold snap, traders may struggle to find strong bullish catalysts. Despite last week’s 261 Bcf storage draw—above the five-year average—current trends indicate weaker consumption, keeping pressure on prices.
How Are Supply and LNG Exports Influencing the Market?
Production remains robust, with Lower-48 dry gas output at 107.8 Bcf/d, up 2.8% year-over-year. Meanwhile, LNG exports provide some support, with flows to U.S. terminals rising to 15.6 Bcf/d, a 2.1% weekly increase.
A potential long-term bullish factor emerged as the Trump administration lifted restrictions on new LNG export projects. Bloomberg reported that a decision on the Commonwealth LNG facility in Louisiana is approaching, which could eventually boost U.S. natural gas demand. However, in the short term, storage and weather are dictating price action.
During the trading session on Friday, we have seen the British pound all over the place against the Japanese yen.
Ultimately, the market did test the ¥190 level, which is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it’s also an area that has been important more than once.
Because of this, and the fact that we pull back from there so quickly, the market is likely to continue to look at this area as crucial.
If we break down from here, and perhaps below the low of the trading session, then we could see the British pound Paul significantly, perhaps down to the crucial ¥185 level. The ¥185 level of course is an area that’s been important a couple of times in the past as well, and this is something that a lot of people will be paying close attention to. Anything below there could get really ugly in a very short amount of time.
Risk Appetite
The risk appetite component of this pair shouldn’t be ignored, as the British pound does favor the upside in this pair when traders are feeling better about the overall economic prospects. Ultimately, this is a market that will continue to look very much like a market that is trying to determine whether or not we have found the bottom, but I think it’s a little early to say that. The size of the candlestick for the day of course is fairly important as it shows just how volatile and dangerous this pair could be. That being said, the market will have to make a bigger decision, and once it does, I think that we could see a very big move.
I favor the upside, mainly due to the interest rate differential, and the fact that the Bank of Japan can only raise interest rates so far, I suspect that we will eventually see this market take off. If and when it does, it could be a very brutal move to the upside.
