The EURJPY pair kept its consolidation near 158.60 since yesterday, taking advantage of stochastic additional negative momentum signals, to increase the chances of resuming the negative attack on the near-term basis.

Succeeding to break 158.60 and holding below it will open the way to target more negative stations, starting at 157.90 as a first station, followed by attempting to press on the additional support at 157.30.

The expected trading range for today is between 157.90 and 159.60

Trend forecast: Bearish

Crude oil price shows more bullish bias to trade around the EMA50, noticing that the price is forming positive pattern that might assist to continue the rise and breach the key resistance at 72.30$ to open the way to achieve more gains in the upcoming sessions, but we notice that the technical indicators provide negative signals that might push the price to decline again.

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FX:USDCAD is stuck in a range (consolidation) between 1.4486 and 1.428. The dollar has been showing negative momentum lately, but with NFP ahead, the data could both reinforce the correction and support the index…

All eyes are on today’s economic news. If the actual NFP is below the forecast (169K), it will strengthen the expectations of the Fed rate…

Strong Advance Indicated

Further signs of strength could lead to continued bullish behavior within the next pullback or consolidation. The recent advance has continued to show signs of strength as it advanced, with the more significant being the reclaim of both the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs.

It is interesting to note that earlier in today’s trading session natural gas began the trading session by gapping down and then falling to successfully test support around the 50-Day MA with the day’s low of $3.55. That initial decline provided bearish signals on a drop below the lows of each of the past two days. The market clearly recognized the 50-Day MA price area as the buyers clearly took back control.

Weekly Breakout

There are also a couple signs of strength to be aware of on the weekly chart (not shown). The three-week high at $3.83 was exceeded today, as well as the 200-Week MA, which is at $3.91. Today’s closing price should be above each of those price levels and will therefore confirm the strength of the breakouts.

Given Strength, Pullback Maybe Short

Despite strong bullish indications a pullback could come following a test of the 78.6% retracement, as noted above. There is also a former weekly high at $4.05. It provides a little more attention to that price area. Even if the $4.06 price level is exceeded to the upside the current advance is getting extended.

As of today’s high, natural gas was up by $1.02 or 34.2% from the recent $2.99 swing low. Certainly, it can go higher, but today’s spike is not happening at the beginning of the rally and therefore there might be early signs of exhaustion that has not yet been fully registered by the market.

XAU/USD Current price: $2,927.93

• Peace talks around the Ukraine-Russia war underpinned the mood on Tuesday.
• Canadian annual inflation held below 2%, further boosting the sentiment.
• XAU/USD resumed its advance and aims to retest its record high in the $2,942 price zone.

Gold price is up on Tuesday, with XAU/USD approaching the $2,930 mark in the American session. The bright metal resumed its advance after falling to $2,876.93 on Friday, up for a second consecutive day and closing into the record high at $2,942.76 posted this month.

The US Dollar (USD) fell away from investors’ radar amid an improved mood, based on hopes that the Russia-Ukraine war would soon end. Russian and United States (US) delegations met in Riyadh to hold peace talks, although without the presence of Ukrainian leaders.

“No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine … Europe must have a seat at the table when decisions about Europe are being made,” Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky said at the Munich Security Conference over the weekend. Nevertheless, diplomats from the US and Russia have hailed the meeting in Saudi Arabia as positive.

 Meanwhile, Canada reported that the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 1.9% over the last twelve months, up from the December reading of 1.8%, and it matched analysts’ expectations. On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.1%, higher than the -0.4% posted in December. The optimistic figures further backed the market mood.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for XAU/USD shows buyers regained control. Technical indicators resumed their advances after correcting extreme overbought conditions, while the pair develops above all bullish moving averages. Additionally, the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) maintains its firmly bullish slope far above the 100 and 200 SMA, which also head north.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD has room to extend its advance. The pair recovered above a flat 20 SMA, now providing support at around $2,909.60. The 100 and 200 SMAs, in the meantime, accelerated north far below the shorter one, reflecting buyers’ dominance. Finally, technical indicators regained their upward strength, although the Momentum indicator remains below its 100 line.

Support levels: 2,909.60 2,897.10 2,876,90

Resistance levels: 2,942.75 2,960.00 2,975.00 

The NZDCAD price formed correctional bullish rebound recently after facing 50% Fibonacci correction level at 0.8035, in addition to stochastic rally towards 80 level, to notice recording some gains by settling near 0.8105.

Note that the current rebound won’t affect the main bearish track due to the frequent stability below 0.8240 resistance line in addition to the MA55 crawl below this resistance, thus, we will keep waiting to gather the negative momentum to manage to renew the pressure on 0.8035 level, while breaking it will open the way to target new negative stations, starting at 0.7980 as a first additional target.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8035 and 0.8145

Trend forecast: Bearish