In my daily analysis of the EUR/USD pair, I continue to focus on the 1.03 level below.
This is an area that has acted as support on both Monday and Tuesday, and it’s also an area that’s been important multiple times in the past.
As things stand right now, think you got a situation where rally still have to be looked at with suspicion, as the European Union is most certainly lagging the United States.
Side note, it’s worth noting that the European Union has roughly the same size economy that it had 20 years ago, while the United States has doubled its economy. This is a thing that tells you everything you need to know.
Technical Analysis
I believe that the technical analysis for this market is still very negative, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that you want to short market at extremely low levels. In fact, I would like to see a bit of a bounce so that I can start fading again. This is how I traded in this EUR/USD market for about 2 months now, and so far, it’s worked out quite nicely. The 50 Day EMA is near the 1.0425 level and is dropping. I think that more likely than not will end up being an area that a lot of sellers will enter.
What I need to see is a higher and a long wick to the upside showing signs of exhaustion. As far as buying is concerned, I have no interest in doing so, at least not until we break above the 1.06 level. The level of 1.06 is roughly where the 200 Day EMA is currently sitting at. It’s not until we break above all of that that I think you have a situation where the euro starts to take off to the upside for a sustainable move. Anything between now and then is probably just going to be in the vein of an opportunity to “pick up cheap US dollars.”
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The GBPJPY pair succeeded to activate the bullish track, taking advantage of the stability of the major support at 187.00 to form many bullish waves by reaching the previously targeted barrier at 189.50.
Also, resuming the bullish attack this morning and recording additional gains by reaching 191.25 confirm its regain to the bullish bias, to expect getting positive momentum by stochastic to reach 192.30 level soon, followed by attempting to test the MA55 at 193.55.
The expected trading range for today is between 189.70 and 192.30
Crude oil price succeeded to achieve our waited target at 73.90$ and found solid resistance there, to show some bearish bias and head towards potential retest to the breached resistance of the bearish channel that appears on the chart, and the EMA50 meets the breached resistance to add more strength to the support line formed there.
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EUR/JPY soars to near 159.60 amid a notable weakness in the Japanese Yen.
BoJ Ueda warned that food prices could rise and impact inflation expectations.
ECB Galhau cautioned that Trump’s tariffs would have negative impacts on the Eurozone.
The EUR/JPY pair extends its winning spell for the third trading day on Wednesday. The pair strengthens as the Japanese Yen (JPY) weakens across the board despite firm market speculation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates.
Japanese Yen PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies today. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.37%
0.43%
1.16%
0.32%
0.77%
0.73%
0.20%
EUR
-0.37%
0.06%
0.78%
-0.05%
0.38%
0.34%
-0.18%
GBP
-0.43%
-0.06%
0.71%
-0.12%
0.32%
0.29%
-0.24%
JPY
-1.16%
-0.78%
-0.71%
-0.80%
-0.36%
-0.41%
-0.93%
CAD
-0.32%
0.05%
0.12%
0.80%
0.45%
0.40%
-0.12%
AUD
-0.77%
-0.38%
-0.32%
0.36%
-0.45%
-0.04%
-0.57%
NZD
-0.73%
-0.34%
-0.29%
0.41%
-0.40%
0.04%
-0.53%
CHF
-0.20%
0.18%
0.24%
0.93%
0.12%
0.57%
0.53%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).
The BoJ raised its key borrowing rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 0.5% in the January policy meeting as inflationary pressures remain well above the 2% target for longer. BoJ officials have also guided a hawkish monetary policy outlook on the assumption that wages would continue to grow.
Earlier in the day, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda warned that “food prices may continue to remain high” and will impact “people’s mindsets and price expectations”, Reuters report.
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) outperforms its peers despite deepening fears of potential tariffs by United States (US) President Donald Trump on the Eurozone. Donald Trump is poised to announce reciprocal tariffs sooner and market participants expect that Eurozone will face higher levies on auto. The European Union (EU) charges 10% tariffs on imports of automobiles from the US and pays 2.5% import duty for domestic autos supplied to them.
In European trading hours, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau warned that Trump’s trade policies would most likely have a “negative impact on the economy.”
EUR/JPY bounces back strongly after revisiting the four-month low around 156.00. The asset retraces to near the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 159.80. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) returns into the 40.00-60.00 range, which indicates that the bearish momentum has ended for now.
Going forward, a decisive move by the pair above the February 5 high of 160.30 would open doors for the February 3 high of 160.84, followed by the January 30 high of 161.80.
On the flip side, a downside move by the cross below the February 10 low of 155.67 would expose it to the August 5 low of 154.40 and 7 December 2023 low of 153.17.
EUR/JPY daily chart
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Gold sellers test the key support on the 4H chart, as US CPI inflation data looms.
Gold price consolidates the previous pullback from record highs of $2,943, struggling below $2,900 early Wednesday. All eyes now remain on the high-impact US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data due later in the day for fresh directional impetus in Gold price.
Will US CPI data accentuate Gold price correction?
Markets are battling uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump’s plans for reciprocal tariffs and Federal Reserve (Fed) easing trajectory, leaving Gold price in a limbo, with traders cashing in on their long positions heading into the critical US inflation test.
Traders remain on tenterhooks as they remain expectant of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs coming into effect from Wednesday but it is not yet confirmed whether the tariffs will come through later in the day.
When asked if reciprocal tariffs are still coming on Wednesday at an event to welcome home a hostage released by Russian President Vladimir Putin late Tuesday, President Trump said ‘we’ll see’.
Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported that Trump’s team is working on reciprocal tariffs this week via executive action, bypassing Congress.
The speculations around Trump’s tariffs revive the US Dollar’s (USD) as a safe-haven asset, weighing negatively on Gold price. The bright metal also bears the brunt of the hawkish commetary by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell during his Congressional testimony on Wednesday.
Powell hinted that the central bank would maintain its current policy stance, saying that “with the economy remaining strong, we do not need to be in a hurry to adjust our policy stance.”
Markets altered their expectations of Fed interest rate cuts this year to only one in July, fuelling a decent recovery in the US Treasury bond yields at the expense of the non-interest-bearing Gold price.
The next directional move in gold price is on the US CPI release and Trump’s implementation of reciprocal tariffs. The US annual CPI inflation is expected to remain at 2.9% in January while the core figure is seen easing slightly to 3.1%. The monthly headline CPI and core numbers will likely arrive at 0.3% in the same period.
An unexpected increase in the headline CPI could double down on the latest hawkish expectations surrounding the Fed’s policy outlook, driving the USD and the US Treasury bond yields northward while exacerbating the pain in Gold price. Conversely, on a downside surprise, Gold could resume its uptrend on renewed bets of two Fed rate cuts.
However, US President Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement could also remain a key market driver in the sessions ahead.
Gold price technical analysis: Four-hour chart
Gold price fell short of the measured target of the Bull Flag on the four-hour chart at $2,962 and pulled back sharply on Tuesday.
Gold sellers remain in control and challenge the critical 21-four hourly Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,890.
A four-hourly candlestick closing below that level will provide extra legs to Gold price’s corrective downside, calling for a test of the 50-four hourly SMA at $2,857.
The last line of defense for Gold buyers is the 100-four hourly SMA at $2,808.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has turned lower but defends the midline, currently near 52.50, suggesting that the downside could be limited.
Any upswing will need acceptance above the $2,905 static resistance.
If buyers manage to scale the latter decisively, the door will open toward the record high of $2,943.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
GBP/USD holds near 1.2450 after posting strong gains on Tuesday.
The technical picture highlights sellers’ hesitancy in the near term.
The US economic calendar will feature January inflation data.
Following the bearish action seen at the beginning of the week, GBP/USD reversed its direction on Tuesday and gained more than 0.6%. Ahead of the key January inflation data from the US, the pair holds above key technical area.
British Pound PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.41%
-0.37%
1.46%
0.16%
-0.06%
0.37%
0.14%
EUR
0.41%
0.11%
1.99%
0.69%
0.35%
0.87%
0.64%
GBP
0.37%
-0.11%
1.72%
0.55%
0.24%
0.76%
0.52%
JPY
-1.46%
-1.99%
-1.72%
-1.32%
-1.43%
-1.07%
-1.28%
CAD
-0.16%
-0.69%
-0.55%
1.32%
-0.19%
0.18%
-0.04%
AUD
0.06%
-0.35%
-0.24%
1.43%
0.19%
0.52%
0.28%
NZD
-0.37%
-0.87%
-0.76%
1.07%
-0.18%
-0.52%
-0.24%
CHF
-0.14%
-0.64%
-0.52%
1.28%
0.04%
-0.28%
0.24%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) came under selling pressure on Tuesday, allowing GBP/USD gain traction. The lack of fresh headlines surrounding US President Donald Trump’s trade policy and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s hesitancy to offer fresh insight into the policy outlook helped market mood improve in the American session.
On the first day of his congressional testimony on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report, Powell repeated that they do not need to be in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy. He added that it’s not for the Fed to comment on tariffs and explained that they will follow incoming data to assess the effects of the trade policy.
In the second half of the day, January Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the US will be watched closely by market participants. On a monthly basis, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is forecast to rise 0.3%. A stronger increase than expected could support the USD with the initial reaction and cause GBP/USD to turn south. Conversely, a soft monthly core inflation reading of 0.2% or lower could have the opposite impact on the pair’s action.
Early Thursday, the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) will publish the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for the fourth quarter.
GBP/USD Technical Analysis
GBP/USD holds comfortably above the ascending trend line and the 200-period and the 100-period Simple Moving Averages (SMA), reflecting the bullish bias. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays above 50.
In case GBP/USD confirms 1.2450 (Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) as support, it could target 1.2500 (round level, static level) and 1.2530 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) next. On the downside, supports could be seen at 1.2415 (100-period SMA) and 1.2380-1.2370 (200-period SMA, Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, ascending trend line).
Pound Sterling FAQs
The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).
The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.
Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The Department of Energy’s statistical arm boosted its outlook Tuesday for U.S. natural gas prices in 2025 and 2026, tempering hopes for lower heating costs for some Americans.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration included the numbers in its latest short-term energy outlook — the first it has released under the new Trump administration. President Donald Trump pledged last year on the campaign trail to slash energy prices in half in 18 months, even as forecasts have indicated that natural gas prices could rise.
In its latest assessment, EIA said the natural gas price at the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub is expected to average $3.80 per million British thermal units in 2025 — up about 21 percent from its last forecast. EIA also raised its estimate for 2026, putting the annual average price at $4.20 per million Btus, compared with $4 in its January report.
The agency said “above-average withdrawals from underground natural gas storage” in January pushed prices higher, as did cold weather in mid-January. The Henry Hub spot price averaged $4.13 in January, EIA said, up from $3.01 in December.
EUR/USD trades in the positive territory above 1.0350 on Wednesday.
January inflation data from the US will be watched closely by market participants.
The near-term technical outlook points to a bullish tilt.
EUR/USD gained traction in the second half of the day on Tuesday and rose more than 0.5%. The pair trades marginally higher on the day above 1.0350 in the European session on Wednesday and the technical outlook points to a buildup of bullish momentum.
Euro PRICE This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.39%
-0.36%
1.44%
0.12%
-0.08%
0.36%
0.24%
EUR
0.39%
0.10%
1.97%
0.62%
0.30%
0.84%
0.70%
GBP
0.36%
-0.10%
1.70%
0.49%
0.20%
0.74%
0.60%
JPY
-1.44%
-1.97%
-1.70%
-1.35%
-1.44%
-1.07%
-1.17%
CAD
-0.12%
-0.62%
-0.49%
1.35%
-0.17%
0.21%
0.08%
AUD
0.08%
-0.30%
-0.20%
1.44%
0.17%
0.54%
0.38%
NZD
-0.36%
-0.84%
-0.74%
1.07%
-0.21%
-0.54%
-0.13%
CHF
-0.24%
-0.70%
-0.60%
1.17%
-0.08%
-0.38%
0.13%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
In the absence of high-impact data releases, the modest improvement seen in market mood made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand on Tuesday, helping EUR/USD push higher. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell refrained from providing any fresh hints regarding the policy outlook.
While testifying on the semi-annual Monetary Policy Report before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday, Powell reiterated that they do not need to be in a hurry to adjust the monetary policy. “The US is economy strong overall; inflation is closer to 2% goal but still somewhat elevated,” he added.
Later in the day, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January. Markets expect the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis. A print above the market consensus could weigh on risk mood and boost the USD with the immediate reaction, forcing EUR/USD to reverse its direction. On the other hand, a softer-than-forecast monthly core inflation reading could allow the pair to build on Tuesday’s gains.
Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday but he is likely to read the same exact statement from the first day of his testimony.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator rose to 60 and EUR/USD closed the last three 4-hour candles above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), reflecting an increasing buyer interest.
EUR/USD could face stiff resistance at 1.0390-1.0400 (100-period SMA, Fibonacci 50% retracement of the latest downtrend) ahead of 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement).
On the downside, first support area could be spotted at 1.0290-1.0300 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest downtrend, round level) before 1.0250 (static level) and 1.0200 (round level, static level).
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
Copper price surrendered to the solid resistance formed at 4.6900$ to form correctional bearish rebound and activate the attempts for the expected profit gaining by targeting 4.5200$ level.
Now, stochastic exit from the overbought areas will increase the negative pressures on the price to expect forming additional correctional waves that might push it to reach 4.4600$ and 4.4000$ levels.
The expected trading range for today is between 4.4600$ and 4.6400$
