• EUR/USD trades in positive territory, well above 1.0400 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar (USD) struggles to find demand as risk mood improves.
• The pair could reverse its direction in case Trump announces reciprocal tariffs.

EUR/USD gathers bullish momentum and rises toward 1.0450 in the European morning on Thursday. The broad-based selling pressure surrounding the US Dollar (USD) fuels the pair’s leg higher as risk flows dominate the action in financial markets.

In the early trading hours of the American session on Wednesday, EUR/USD declined toward 1.0300 as the USD gathered strength on January inflation data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3%, coming in above the market expectation and December’s increase of 2.9%. Additionally, the core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose by 0.4% on a monthly basis, following the 0.2% rise recorded in the previous month.

Later in the day, the improving risk mood made it difficult for the USD to preserve its strength and opened the door for a decisive rebound in EUR/USD. US President Donald Trump said that he had a “lengthy and highly productive” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin to begin negotiations to end the war in Ukraine. In the meantime, Trump refrained from announcing reciprocal tariffs.

In the second half of the day, the risk perception could continue to drive the pair’s action amid a lack of high-tier data releases. At the time of press, US stock index futures were rising between 0.2% and 0.5%. 

According to CNBC, Trump could still unveil his reciprocal tariff plan before he meets with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday. In case Trump does so, the USD could regain its traction and cause EUR/USD to turn south. On the other hand, the pair could build on its daily gains if markets don’t get any new headlines on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 70, suggesting that EUR/USD could correct lower before extending its uptrend. On the upside, 1.0440 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement of the latest downtrend) aligns as immediate resistance. If the pair rises above this level and starts using it as support, it could target 1.0500-1.0510 (round level, Fibonacci 78.6% retracement) and 1.0550 (static level) next.

Looking south, the first support level could be spotted at 1.0400 (100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), Fibonacci 50% retracement) ahead of 1.0355-1.0350 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, 200-period SMA).

Created on February 12, 2025

• Taking a look at the British pound against the Japanese yen the British pound has initially pulled back just a bit only to turn around and show signs of strength.
• At this point in time the market is likely to look at the 190 yen level as a major barrier to overcome and if we can then it would be an extraordinarily bullish sign.
• After all, we formed a couple of inverted hammers, so breaking the top of an inverted hammer obviously captures a lot of attention.

A Potential Melt Higher?

In that environment, I think you have to look at the market through a potential melt up. I don’t have any interest in trying to get too cute here. I think it’s a simple matter of waiting to see if we can break above that 190 yen level on a daily close if we can then I think that’s a very positive sign if we can’t, then it shows that we are going to pull back and go looking at the 188 yen level again. In general, I don’t necessarily like jumping into the market right here, I want to see what the reaction is to this major inflection point.

I think ultimately, you’ve got a scenario where a lot of traders will be looking at this through the idea of whether or not we can continue to go higher or if the exhaustion comes back into the picture, because the interest rate differential does favor the British pound, but it also is a scenario where the Bank of England just cut rates and they look like they’re going to continue to cut rates while the Japanese central bank of course is now starting to worry about fighting inflation. So definitely at this point in time we are at a major inflection point, but you need to watch this 190 yen level for clues.

Ready to trade our daily Forex analysis? We’ve made a list of the best forex demo accounts worth trading with.

Created on February 12, 2025

• You can see that the Euro initially rallied against the British pound during trading on Tuesday but has given back gains and the crucial 50 day EMA.
• This is a pair that’s been in a downtrend for some time.
• Despite the fact that the Bank of England has recently cut rates, there is still a huge problem in Europe when it comes to lack of growth.
• The question now is, will the UK follow suit?

Relative Game Here

Well, I don’t know if they will, but I do know that when you look at two currencies, it is a relative game. The question now is which one is going to end up being the victor of the two? Well, when you look at this pair, you can see we’ve been in a downtrend for some time. But it’s also worth noting that the 0.8250 level is an area of significant support. So, I think this remains more or less a choppy market, but I do favor fading short term rallies that show signs of exhaustion as the market is most decidedly heavy.

The 50 day EMA has attracted some attention. And I think at this point in time, if we do break down from here, we could revisit that 0.8 to five zero level. On the other hand, if we can turn around and break above the 0.8375 level, we could challenge the 200 day EMA, followed by the 0.8460 level. This is a market that tends to be very choppy and noisy, so you have to pay attention to your trades on a short-term basis because it doesn’t move very much most of the time. However, keep in mind that the PIP value is much higher than most currency pairs, so it doesn’t need to. At this point, I still favor shorting, at least for now, but I do believe that we are getting close to some type of bottoming pattern. Expect a lot of choppiness going forward.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out

• USD/JPY jumps over 1%, breaking 153.00 and 154.00 resistance levels.
• Hot US inflation fuels Treasury yield surge, boosting dollar strength.
• Technical outlook: Bulls eye 155.26, but key support lies at 153.00.

The USD/JPY rallied sharply on Wednesday after a hot US inflation report spurred a jump in the US 10-year Treasury yield, closely correlated with the major. Hence, the pair aimed higher, clearing the 153.00 and 154.00 figures on their way toward current spot prices, near 154.50.

USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlook

The USD/JPY enjoyed an over 1% rally on Wednesday after clearing the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 152.76, opening the door for further upside. Despite this, the pair found stir resistance at the Kijun-sen at 154.90 before consolidating near the 154.50 area,

Despite this, the pair is neutral to downward biased after registering a successive series of lower highs and lower lows. If bulls want to regain control, the USD/JPY must clear the 50-day SMA at 155.26, followed by the latest cycle high of 155.89.

On the other hand, a drop below 154.00 would expose the Senkou Span B at 153.76, followed by the 153.00 figure and the 200-day SMA at 152.76.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Daily