• Silver price continues to gain ground amid dovish sentiment surrounding the major central banks’ policy outlook.
• The upside of the non-interest-bearing Silver could be limited amid the cautious tone surrounding the Fed.
• A stronger US Dollar may create headwinds for Silver, as it increases the metal’s cost for investors holding other currencies.

Silver price (XAG/USD) extends its winning streak for the third consecutive session, trading around $30.90 per troy ounce during Asian trading hours on Thursday. The precious metal holds its gains amid dovish signals from major central banks.

The Bank of Canada (BoC) has ended its quantitative tightening and joined Sweden’s Riksbank in delivering a rate cut. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also expected to lower rates this week, while the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) have signaled potential rate cuts ahead.

In the United States (US), the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50% during its January meeting on Wednesday, as widely anticipated. This follows three consecutive rate cuts since September 2024, totaling a full percentage point.

However, Silver’s upside may be capped as the Fed delivered a hawkish message by removing language suggesting confidence in inflation moving toward its 2% target. Additionally, the central bank acknowledged strong economic growth and labor market conditions.

During his press conference, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the US central bank would need to see “real progress on inflation or some weakness in the labor market” before considering further policy adjustments.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, remains steady at around 108.00. A stronger US Dollar could pose challenges for Silver, making it more expensive for foreign buyers.

Natural gas price formed temporary correctional bullish wave yesterday to fluctuate above 50% Fibonacci correction level at 3.130$, attempting to cover some previous losses to settle near 3.200$.

Note that the MA55 continues to form additional barrier at 3.260$, along with stochastic consolidation within the oversold areas, these factors support the domination of the bearish bias for the near-term and medium-term period, to keep waiting to form new negative waves and target 2.970$ followed by 2.840$ levels.

The expected trading range for today is between 2.970$ and 3.200$

Trend forecast: Bearish

Crude oil price managed to break 73.90$ level and close the daily candlestick below it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, opening the way to head towards 72.30$ that represents our next main target, noting that breaking this level will push the price to suffer additional losses that reach 70.30$ on the near-term basis.

Holding below 73.90$ is important to the continuation of the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to achieve intraday gains and head to test 75.53$ areas before any new attempt to decline.

The expected trading range for today is between 71.60$ support and 74.60$ resistance

Trend forecast: Bearish

XAU/USD Current price: $2,753.60

• The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates on hold in today’s monetary policy meeting.
• The United States will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 GDP on Thursday.
• XAU/USD could extend its slide in the near term amid prevalent US Dollar demand.

Gold is under modest selling pressure on Wednesday as caution rules ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement. The United States (US) central bank is widely anticipated to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged after trimming 25 basis points (bps)  and settling it at 4.25%-4.5% in December.

Back then, officials adopted a more dovish stance amid uncertainty about President Donald Trump’s trade policies and their potential effects on economic development. Trump’s initial days at the office have indeed triggered loads of noise, with the focus on tariffs. Still, the US government has announced no new levies.

There is a good chance the Fed will repeat its December statement as officials would prefer to wait for a clearer picture before taking a more hawkish approach. In the meantime, and following the Fed’s decision, the US will publish the preliminary estimate of the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. The report is expected to show that the economy grew at a solid 2.6% pace on an annualized basis, slightly below the 3.1% posted in Q3.

Meanwhile, US government bond yields held steady. The 10-year Treasury note offers 4.55%, pretty much unchanged on a daily basis. US indexes, in the meantime, are modestly down after their overseas counterparts closed in the green.

XAU/USD short-term technical outlook

From a technical point of view, the daily chart for the XAU/USD shows an undergoing consolidative stage. The bright metal seesaws between gains and losses but remains above the $2,700 mark and not far below record highs. The same chart shows that the 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) keeps heading north well below the current level, while it is above bullish 100 and 200 SMAs, limiting the bearish case. Finally, technical indicators ease within positive levels, far above their midlines and falling short of suggesting a sustained bearish extension.

In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, however, the risk skews to the downside. XAU/USD has spent the last couple of sessions battling a now bearish 20 SMA, developing just below it. The longer moving averages maintain their upward slopes below the current level, yet technical indicators are crossing their midlines into negative territory, favoring another leg south.

Support levels: 2,747.20 2,734.60 2,716.50

Resistance levels: 2,764.85 2,777.30 2,789.95

If 3.02 Fails, 2.67 Looks Possible

line of a large symmetrical triangle becomes a potential target, and further down is the 78.6% retracement at 2.67. Currently the 200-Day MA has converged with the retracement level and is identifying the same price. Nonetheless, the 200-Day MA marks a key potential support level for the larger bull trend.

Large Rising Parallel Trend Channel

A key point to consider is the presence of a large rising parallel trend channel on the chart. Notice that during the recent rally there was a failed attempt to break out above the top channel line before a high was established at 4.37. Given the subsequent bearish decline follow through the possibility of an eventual test of support at or near the lows of the channel are a possibility. Once there is a clear reversal from one side of the channel, there is the possibility of reaching the other side of the channel.

20-Week MA Tested as Support

Further to the above analysis, the weekly chart may provide an additional clue. Today’s low reached a seven-week low and there is also a monthly low from December at 2.98. The decline also tested support around 20-Week MA, which is at 3.11. The 20-week line has marked trend support on the weekly chart since it was reclaimed in October.

This seems to increase the chance that today’s low could hold as support and complete the correction. It also indicates that a decisive decline below the 20-Week MA will provide bearish confirmation and increase the chance for natural gas to eventually test lower prices before the correction is complete.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Berkshire Hathaway’s stock price (BRK.B) fell in the intraday levels on profit-taking, while gathering positive momentum to rise anew, amid the dominance of the main upward trend in the medium term, with positive pressure due to trading above the 50-day SMA, while the stock managed to vent off overbought saturation in the RSI.

Therefore we expect the stock to return higher and target the pivotal resistance of $491.65, provided the support  of $455.30 holds on.

Trend forecast for today: Likely Bullish