Natural gas price failed by breaking the bullish channel’s support, affected by the continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction until this moment, which forces it to provide new sideways trading by its stability near $4.060.

The price confinement between the main support at $3.900 while $4.200 level is expected by forming strong barrier against the current trading, therefore, we recommend the neutrality for today, waiting for surpassing one of the main levels, to detect the expected trend in the near and medium period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $3.900 and $4.200.

Trend forecast: Neutral

Platinum price did not get enough by its recent gains, activating with the main indicators positivity by forming strong bullish waves, to settle above the psychological barrier at $2000.00 level, recording extra historical gains by hitting $2071.00 level.

Which confirms the stability of the bullish scenario, and its stability above $2000.00 makes us expect to form new bullish waves, to attempt to reach $2085.00 and $2125.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1970.00 and $2085.00.

Trend forecast: Bullish

Silver is closing out 2025 with the kind of momentum that forces both bulls and bears to pay attention. As of Sunday, December 21, 2025, the silver price (XAG/USD) is hovering around the $67-per-ounce area after a record-setting surge late last week—powered by a mix of investment flows, tight supply conditions, and an industrial demand narrative that keeps getting louder. ^[1]

But this is also the point in a parabolic move where markets tend to change character: liquidity thins into the holidays, positioning gets crowded, and even small headlines can trigger outsized swings. Several analysts publishing today warn that a “breather” week is possible, even if the broader trend remains bullish into 2026. ^[2]

Below is a complete, publication-ready roundup of today’s (21.12.2025) silver price news, forecasts, and analyses, plus the macro and technical signals traders are watching right now.

Silver price today: where XAG/USD stands after Friday’s record

Because it’s a weekend, most “live” silver quotes are effectively tracking Friday’s U.S. session close and subsequent thin, OTC price discovery. Reuters reported that spot silver rose to about $67.14/oz on Friday (Dec. 19) after hitting a fresh record intraday high near $67.45/oz, capping a powerful weekly move. ^[3]

The bigger headline is the scale of the run: Reuters also noted silver has surged roughly triple-digit percentage points in 2025 (around the 120%–130% range depending on measurement), dramatically outperforming gold this year. ^[4]

Why this matters for today (Dec. 21):

• We’re entering a holiday-shortened, low-liquidity window, which can exaggerate moves in both directions.
• Markets are shifting from “what just happened” (records) to “what comes next” (whether $70 becomes the next magnet—or whether profit-taking triggers a pullback first). ^[5]

What’s driving silver’s 2025 breakout: the “perfect storm” narrative

The silver story right now is not one single catalyst—it’s a cluster of reinforcing forces.

1) Investment demand and speculation are in the driver’s seat

Reuters explicitly framed the rally as heavily investment-driven, quoting market participants who emphasized that speculation is playing a major role even though fundamentals are supportive. ^[6]

On Friday, Reuters also pointed to ETF flows and retail speculation as a continuing theme in silver’s latest leg higher. ^[7]

2) Macro tailwinds: rate-cut expectations, inflation, and the labor market

Silver (like gold) is highly sensitive to the path of real yields and the U.S. dollar. Reuters highlighted that:

• U.S. inflation data came in softer than expected (reported as 2.7% year-on-year vs. 3.1% forecast in that Reuters write-up), and
• The U.S. unemployment rate has risen to 4.6% (as cited in Reuters coverage),
  supporting the market’s expectation that the Fed stays on an easing trajectory into 2026. ^[8]

3) Structural tightness: supply deficits and inventory stress

Reuters described silver’s persistent supply deficit and tightening conditions outside the U.S. as part of the bullish backdrop, adding that earlier tariff-related concerns helped pull metal toward the U.S., tightening liquidity in the London spot market. ^[9]

4) Industrial demand: AI, solar, EVs—and the “more than a monetary metal” argument

Silver’s unique twist versus gold is that it’s not just a hedge or store of value; it’s also an industrial input. Reuters cited demand prospects tied to AI data centers, solar cells, and electric vehicles as part of the “perfect storm.” ^[10]

5) Policy signal: U.S. “critical minerals” list

One of the more interesting 2025 developments: Reuters reported that silver’s inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list has supported prices. ^[11]

Today’s silver price headlines and forecasts (published 21.12.2025)

Here’s what the major silver-related commentary dated Sunday, December 21, 2025 is saying.

FXLeaders (Dec. 21): $67 close keeps bulls in control—$70 in view

FXLeaders’ weekly outlook says silver closed at about $67.17 last Friday, framing it as a decisive post-breakout hold. Their technical roadmap is clear:

• Bullish as long as price holds above ~$66.90
• Upside targets: $68.20 → $69.50 → $70.00
• Key “watch list” macro releases: GDP, durable goods, consumer confidence ^[12]

DailyForex (Dec. 21): still bullish, but volatility is high—size smaller

DailyForex’s weekly forecast (created Dec. 21) emphasizes the strength of the breakout while warning that moves are “messy” and volatility is elevated. The analyst’s stance: being long can still make sense, but with smaller position sizing because silver is leading the whole precious-metals complex and can whip around quickly. ^[13]

PTI via The Week (Dec. 21): a “breather” week is possible as liquidity dries up

A PTI wire carried by The Week warns that gold and silver may take a breather next week due to year-end thin volumes, while traders focus on U.S. macro releases (GDP, housing data, durable goods, consumer confidence). ^[14]

It also notes that on India’s MCX:

• Silver futures rose about 8% on the week
• Touched a lifetime high near ₹2,08,603 per kg on Friday before easing on profit booking
• One analyst (JM Financial) flagged ETF flows and concerns around yen carry-trade unwinding as part of the broader backdrop
• Near-term projection: ₹2,25,000–₹2,45,000 per kg, but with caution because the market looks stretched ^[15]

Moneycontrol (Dec. 21): MCX silver remains “extremely bullish” above ₹2,00,000

Moneycontrol’s Dec. 21 commodities note (from Kotak Securities’ research head) presents a clean technical framework for MCX silver:

• As long as silver holds above ₹2,00,000 per kg, the uptrend bias stays intact
• Resistance/targets: ₹2,25,000, then ₹2,40,000
• A break below ₹2,00,000 could shift the market into a sideways pause ^[16]

Times of India (Dec. 21): holiday-thinned trade could amplify dips and spikes

The Times of India also flags the same holiday dynamic: lower participation into Christmas and New Year can create higher sensitivity to economic releases, potentially producing sudden dips or sharp squeezes even if the longer-term trend remains constructive. ^[17]

Silver price forecast: the most important levels for the week ahead

With silver trading in “price discovery” territory after repeated all-time highs, forecasts are converging around a simple question:

Will silver hit $70 next—or pull back first?

Bull case (continuation):

• The $67 area holds as a consolidation shelf.
• A push through nearby resistance opens the path toward $68.20 and $69.50, with $70 as the psychological headline level. ^[18]

Base case (pause / churn):

• Silver digests the move in a range as liquidity thins.
• That “pause” can still be bullish—markets often build the next leg higher through consolidation rather than straight-line acceleration. ^[19]

Bear case (profit-taking / air pocket):

• A dip below the breakout zone triggers faster selling (especially if driven by dollar strength, rising yields, or sudden risk-on sentiment).
• Key downside references cited in current analysis include:
  • ~$66.90–$67.00 as first support ^[20]
  • ~$64.50, then ~$62.00 as deeper pullback zones ^[21]
  • LiveMint also quoted near-term support bands around $64.7–$62.0, reinforcing the same “mid-$60s then low-$60s” structure many desks are watching. ^[22]

Longer-range outlook: why some see $70–$75 (and even higher) as plausible in 2026

Even among analysts warning about short-term volatility, the medium-term narrative remains bullish in much of today’s commentary—because the same forces that drove the 2025 surge aren’t clearly fading yet.

• Reuters quoted WisdomTree’s Nitesh Shah saying silver could rise toward ~$75/oz by the end of next year (2026), pointing to supportive conditions tied to inventories and the broader backdrop. ^[23]
• LiveMint similarly referenced the possibility that renewed momentum could challenge $70–$75, while maintaining that the broader uptrend remains intact as long as key supports hold. ^[24]

The important nuance: those upside projections don’t imply a smooth path. Silver is notorious for sharp corrections inside bull markets, and multiple analysts publishing this week have highlighted how quickly “stretched” conditions can unwind.

The risk factor investors keep underestimating: silver’s volatility

Silver’s appeal is also its danger: it often behaves like “gold with a turbocharger.” That’s great on the way up—until it isn’t.

One widely circulated warning in recent coverage: Barron’s highlighted research suggesting silver has reached historically extreme deviations versus major moving averages, conditions that in past cycles (like 2011 and 2020) were followed by steep pullbacks exceeding 20%. ^[25]

That doesn’t invalidate the bullish thesis—it simply reframes timing and risk. In practical terms, it means the next big move could be either:

• a breakout sprint into $70 headlines, or
• a violent shakeout designed to clear late leverage before any longer-term continuation.

What to watch next: the Dec. 22–26 calendar that could move silver

Even in a holiday-shortened week, silver traders are watching a tight set of macro inputs because they feed directly into the dollar-rate-real-yield equation.

Across today’s Dec. 21 outlook pieces, the most-cited catalysts are:

• U.S. GDP (a focal point in multiple Sunday previews) ^[26]
• Durable goods and consumer confidence ^[27]
• U.S. housing data ^[28]
• ADP employment and jobless claims (as highlighted in India-focused commodities previews) ^[29]

And the most important market-structure point: because of the holidays, price action may be “subdued” at times—but paradoxically swings can be larger when participation is thin. That’s exactly why multiple analysts are warning about volatility even while staying constructive on trend. ^[30]

Bottom line for Dec. 21, 2025: silver remains bullish—just not “easy”

Silver is ending 2025 near record highs around $67/oz, backed by a narrative that blends Fed-cut expectations, strong industrial demand, and supply tightness with heavy investment flows. ^[31]

For the week ahead, the market is essentially split into two camps:

• Trend followers, who see consolidation above the breakout zone as a base for a $70 test ^[32]
• Risk managers, who argue the move is stretched enough that a pullback could happen quickly—especially in holiday liquidity ^[33]

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.theweek.in, 3. www.reuters.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.theweek.in, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.fxleaders.com, 13. www.dailyforex.com, 14. www.theweek.in, 15. www.theweek.in, 16. www.moneycontrol.com, 17. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 18. www.fxleaders.com, 19. www.theweek.in, 20. www.fxleaders.com, 21. www.marketpulse.com, 22. www.livemint.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.livemint.com, 25. www.barrons.com, 26. www.theweek.in, 27. www.fxleaders.com, 28. www.theweek.in, 29. www.moneycontrol.com, 30. www.theweek.in, 31. www.reuters.com, 32. www.fxleaders.com, 33. www.barrons.com

Gold is ending 2025 where it spent much of the year: near record territory, with investors debating whether the next move is a breakout—or a breath. As of Sunday, December 21, 2025, live spot pricing put gold around $4,352/oz, keeping the metal within striking distance of its 2025 record near $4,381/oz and reinforcing the narrative that bullion has shifted from a “rate-cut trade” into a structural portfolio asset for central banks and investors alike. ^[1]

What makes today’s setup especially interesting is the collision of three powerful themes: fresh signals that the Federal Reserve could keep rates steady for months, year-end liquidity conditions that can amplify swings, and a growing consensus among major banks that 2026 could still bring gold closer to $4,800–$5,000 even if the pace of gains slows from 2025’s historic surge. ^[2]

Gold price today: where XAU/USD stands on December 21, 2025

Live spot quotes on Sunday showed gold at $4,352.63/oz (12:08 PM ET), up modestly on the day. ^[3]

On major pricing feeds tracking XAU/USD, the current exchange rate was around 4,338.55, with an indicated daily range roughly between 4,309 and 4,356—a reminder that different feeds (spot quotes, broker composites, OTC pricing windows) can vary slightly, especially around weekends and thin liquidity. ^[4]

For context, gold’s 2025 run has been extraordinary: the World Gold Council notes the metal notched 50+ all-time highs this year and delivered 60%+ returns, driven by a mix of geopolitical risk, USD weakness, and momentum. ^[5]

The headline risk today: a Fed “hold steady for months” message hits the tape

A key macro headline on Dec. 21 came via Reuters: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said she sees no need to change U.S. interest rates for months, with the current benchmark range at 3.5% to 3.75%, suggesting policy could stay on hold until at least spring while officials assess inflation dynamics—including the downstream effects of tariffs moving through supply chains. ^[6]

Why it matters for the gold price:
Gold tends to dislike “higher-for-longer” surprises because firmer rate expectations can lift real yields and support the dollar—both classic headwinds for non-yielding bullion. But the 2025 playbook has been more complicated: strong demand from central banks and diversification-focused investors has repeatedly cushioned pullbacks, even when rates didn’t fall as fast as markets hoped. ^[7]

Forecast roundup as of Dec. 21: where major banks see gold in 2026

The most striking feature of late-December research is how many mainstream institutions now treat $4,500+ gold as plausible—even if they warn the rally may cool.

Bank and institutional targets making headlines

• Goldman Sachs:$4,900/oz by December 2026 in its base case, citing “structurally high” central-bank demand and cyclical support from Fed cuts, with upside risk if private investor diversification broadens. ^[8]
• Morgan Stanley (Reuters summary): expects slower gains but still sees $4,800/oz by Q4 2026, supported by anticipated rate cuts, a weaker dollar, and demand factors including China and central banks. ^[9]
• J.P. Morgan (via Reuters reporting): expects prices averaging above $4,600 in Q2 2026 and above $5,000 in Q4 2026; Reuters also reports J.P. Morgan estimates about 350 tonnes per quarter of central-bank + investment demand is needed to keep prices flat, with a forecast around 585 tonnes per quarter in 2026. ^[10]
• Metals Focus (Reuters): sees gold at $5,000 by end-2026. ^[11]
• Deutsche Bank: lifted its 2026 forecast to $4,450/oz, projecting a $3,950–$4,950 range and arguing ETF flows could help hold a ~$3,900 support floor; it also kept a $5,150 forecast for 2027. ^[12]
• Macquarie (Reuters): sees average prices around $4,225 in 2026, slightly below then-current spot levels at the time of the report. ^[13]
• State Street Global Advisors (SSGA): frames a bull case of $4,500–$5,000 and says it sees a 30% probability of gold hitting $5,000/oz, with scenarios involving steady official/China demand and sustained ETF flows. ^[14]

The “underowned gold” argument

One widely shared late-December thesis: even after the rally, gold may still be under-allocated in key markets. Business Insider, citing Goldman’s analysis, reported gold ETFs were only ~0.17% of private U.S. financial portfolios, and Goldman estimated that even small increases in allocation could have an outsized price effect in a comparatively small market. ^[15]

Why gold surged in 2025—and why strategists say the cycle may not be over

Reuters’ late-year roundup captured the scale of the move: gold posted its biggest jump since the 1979 oil crisis, with prices doubling in the last two years and reaching a record around $4,381/oz in October. ^[16]

Strategists highlighted several forces that turned a “normal” macro rally into something more structural:

1) Central banks as a price anchor

Reuters described central-bank reserve diversification away from dollar assets as a key foundation for 2026, with official buyers stepping in when positioning looks stretched and prices dip. ^[17]

2) ETF and investor demand broadened beyond the usual crowd

Gold’s 2025 story is no longer just “rates and recession.” Reuters pointed to new market participants (including corporate/crypto-linked buyers) and a broader investor pool. ^[18]

3) Demand hit record levels during the year

ING, citing World Gold Council figures, reported global gold demand reached 1,313 tonnes in Q3 2025, described as the strongest quarterly total on record, driven by investment demand (ETFs, bars, coins) and central-bank buying. ^[19]

4) The “uncertainty premium” expanded

Analysts cited concerns ranging from geopolitics to policy disputes and questions about Fed independence as additional support pillars for bullion going into 2026. ^[20]

A new warning in the background: is gold trading like a risk asset?

Not everyone is comfortable with how gold behaved in 2025.

Reuters reported that the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) raised concerns about a rare co-movement of gold and equities that it says hasn’t been seen in at least half a century, suggesting “growing fragility” in a risk-on environment and questioning what happens if both stocks and gold correct together. Reuters also noted BIS commentary that gold began behaving “much more like a speculative asset,” and flagged unusual signals such as gold ETF pricing trading at a premium versus NAV (per the BIS discussion reported by Reuters). ^[21]

For gold investors, this matters because it challenges the simplest “safe haven always offsets equities” assumption—especially in a world where portfolio rebalancing can force selling across asset classes during sharp drawdowns.

Policy and supply-side developments to watch

Gold’s price is driven mainly by macro and demand—but policy and supply headlines can still shape sentiment, especially when they reinforce the “gold as sovereignty” narrative.

Italy: “the people’s gold” debate

Reuters reported that an Italian parliamentary committee approved an amendment declaring that the central bank’s gold reserves belong to “the people,” drawing criticism from the ECB over potential implications for central bank independence. Italy’s reported stockpile is 2,452 metric tons, valued around $300 billion in the Reuters report. ^[22]

Even if largely symbolic, the story underscores how politically salient gold reserves have become in an era of fiscal strain and de-dollarisation debates.

Zimbabwe: adjusting royalties as gold prices soar

On the supply side, Reuters reported Zimbabwe reversed plans to double gold royalties to 10%, keeping 5% royalties for gold between $1,200 and $5,000/oz, and applying 10% only above $5,000/oz. Reuters also noted Zimbabwe’s gold production hit 42 metric tons in the first 11 months of 2025, a record. ^[23]

Near-term outlook: thin liquidity, key U.S. data, and a “breakout vs pullback” market

With Christmas week beginning, many desks are lightly staffed, and liquidity can thin quickly—conditions that often amplify short-term moves in FX, rates, and metals.

Holiday-week volatility risk is real

India-based market coverage on Dec. 21 highlighted a common theme: year-end low volumes can mean quieter trading—or sudden swings if a surprise data print hits a thin book. Times of India reported analysts watching U.S. data such as GDP, housing statistics, and consumer confidence, while anticipating reduced participation around the holidays. ^[24]

A separate Dec. 21 report carried by Rediff (PTI/market commentary) similarly emphasized the risk of consolidation/correction amid low participation, while pointing to the same cluster of U.S. macro releases as near-term catalysts. ^[25]

Technical levels traders are watching (no charts—just the numbers)

Technical commentary published on Dec. 21 illustrates how tight the market’s focus has become around the highs:

• FXEmpire’s daily metals coverage described gold as sitting just under the all-time high near $4,381, with traders split between chasing a breakout and buying dips; it also referenced nearby support levels as the market “debates” direction. ^[26]
• DailyForex’s weekly outlook noted gold has been trying to “catch up” with other precious metals, pointing to a move beyond the $4,270 area and suggesting the market is watching for a decisive push above the record zone. ^[27]

The key takeaway: when a market grinds near record highs late in the year, the first big move can be exaggerated—either a breakout that forces under-allocated investors to chase, or a quick pullback driven by profit-taking and thin liquidity.

What happens next for gold in 2026?

Putting the day’s headlines and the latest institutional forecasts together, the 2026 gold narrative is shaping up around three questions:

1. Does the Fed cut enough—or pause long enough—to keep real yields supportive for gold? Hammack’s “hold steady for months” stance adds tension to a market that has largely priced in easier policy over time. ^[28]
2. Do central banks keep buying at a pace that offsets softer ETF demand if retail flows cool? That’s central to the bullish bank cases, and a key assumption in forecasts clustered between $4,450 and $5,000. ^[29]
3. Does gold remain a portfolio “cornerstone” even if risk assets wobble—or does the BIS-style “double bubble” risk lead to a broader de-risking? ^[30]

For now, price action says the bull market is not “over”—it’s being renegotiated. Gold is no longer just reacting to the next CPI print; it’s being priced as a strategic hedge against a wider set of risks: geopolitics, reserve diversification, fiscal concerns, and shifting confidence in fiat stability. ^[31]

References

1. www.jmbullion.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.jmbullion.com, 4. www.investing.com, 5. www.gold.org, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.ssga.com, 15. markets.businessinsider.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. think.ing.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. timesofindia.indiatimes.com, 25. money.rediff.com, 26. www.fxempire.com, 27. www.dailyforex.com, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.gold.org

December 21, 2025 — Natural gas markets are closing out the year with a familiar winter paradox: heating season is underway, but prices are being dragged lower by milder temperature forecasts and a supply picture that still looks comfortable in both the U.S. and Europe.

In the United States, NYMEX natural gas futures for January delivery slid to $3.879 per million British thermal units (mmBtu) in the latest session, touching a seven-week low as traders priced in warmer-than-normal weather into early January and continued strength in Lower 48 production. ^[1]

Globally, the soft tone is reinforced by weaker benchmark prices in Europe and Asia—reducing LNG “pull” from overseas and narrowing export margins. At the same time, major structural stories continue to reshape the longer-term outlook: Qatar-linked expansion activity moved forward with a new offshore contract, while at least one large proposed U.S. export project was paused amid cost and oversupply concerns. ^[2]

Below is a detailed look at the key news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping natural gas as of Dec. 21, 2025.

Key takeaways driving natural gas today

• U.S. prices: January futures ended the latest session around $3.879/mmBtu, pressured by milder weather outlooks and near-record output. ^[3]
• Supply comfort signals: The closely watched March–April 2026 spread (“widow-maker”) traded near a record-low premium of ~1 cent, a sign traders aren’t pricing in major late-winter scarcity risk right now. ^[4]
• Production and demand: Lower 48 output hovered around 109.6 bcfd (billion cubic feet per day) for December, while projected total demand (including exports) was expected to fall sharply over the next two weeks as warmth trims heating needs. ^[5]
• LNG feedgas remains high: Flows to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants averaged about 18.5 bcfd so far this month—near record territory—though plant-specific fluctuations continue. ^[6]
• Project signals: Energy Transfer said it is suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana as it prioritizes pipeline investments amid cost inflation and oversupply concerns. ^[7]
• Geopolitics and regional gas: Israel approved what it described as its largest-ever gas export deal, tied to Leviathan supply to Egypt through 2040 (or until contract value is reached), underscoring how East Med gas is becoming more central to North African balances. ^[8]
• Europe policy shift continues: The European Parliament approved legislation to phase out Russian gas imports—including halting Russian LNG by end‑2026 and pipeline gas by end‑September 2027—a structural bullish factor for LNG demand over time even if near-term prices are soft. ^[9]
• 2026 forecasts diverge: EIA expects Henry Hub to average about $4.01/mmBtu in 2026 (and around $4.30/mmBtu this winter season), while Enverus projects $3.80 through winter before softening in summer 2026; Goldman sees higher 2026 pricing in both the U.S. and Europe than current winter softness implies. ^[10]

Where U.S. natural gas prices stand—and what’s pushing them

The current U.S. move is less about a sudden collapse in fundamentals and more about a rapid repricing of winter expectations. After earlier cold-driven strength, the latest model runs shifted warmer—enough to shave expected heating demand in the critical late-December/early-January window.

Reuters-reported market data showed meteorologists expecting weather to stay mostly warmer than normal through Jan. 3, reducing the volume of gas needed for residential and commercial heating. ^[11]

At the same time, supply remains strong. Lower 48 output has been hovering near record levels (~109.6 bcfd), giving the market less reason to pay up for winter risk. ^[12]

One of the most telling indicators is the forward curve. The March–April 2026 spread—nicknamed the “widow-maker” for how violently it can move when late-winter weather swings—compressed to around a 1-cent premium, an unusually calm signal for the end of winter. ^[13]

Storage: still not tight (for now)

Storage is also helping keep a lid on panic pricing. In the same Reuters dataset, the U.S. storage position was shown close to normal—recently around 0.9% above the five-year average at the reported point in time (with totals cited around 3,579 bcf for the referenced week). ^[14]

That doesn’t mean winter is “solved.” It means the market currently believes supply + storage are adequate unless a sustained cold regime emerges.

LNG: high export flows, but global prices are softening

U.S. LNG export demand continues to be a critical support pillar. Feedgas to the eight major U.S. LNG plants averaged around 18.5 bcfd so far this month—up from a monthly record of 18.2 bcfd in November, according to Reuters-reported figures. ^[15]

However, softer global gas benchmarks are complicating the picture.

Earlier in the week, Reuters reporting noted European (TTF) and Asian (JKM) benchmarks trading near multi‑month lows, with global prices declining as the winter heating season began slowly and markets weighed prospects of improved Russia-linked supply conditions over time. ^[16]

This matters because LNG is not just a “volume” story—it’s a margin story. When international prices fall faster than Henry Hub (or when shipping and liquefaction costs rise), U.S. cargo economics can tighten, especially for spot-linked volumes.

Operational noise: Freeport and Venture Global headlines

Operationally, traders are still tracking plant-level events. Reuters noted a shutdown of one liquefaction train at Freeport LNG in Texas during the week, a reminder that unplanned outages can quickly change short-term balances. ^[17]

Separately, Reuters also pointed to small flow declines at Venture Global facilities in Louisiana in recent days (as referenced in market reporting), though overall U.S. LNG feedgas stayed near record highs. ^[18]

Big project signal: Energy Transfer pauses Lake Charles LNG

One of the most important structural stories heading into 2026 isn’t a price tick—it’s what developers are doing (or not doing) with multi‑billion-dollar export projects.

Energy Transfer said it is suspending development of its Lake Charles LNG export project in Louisiana, citing a preference to focus capital on pipeline investments amid rising costs and fears of looming global oversupply as more LNG capacity comes online. The project had been planned at roughly 16.45 million tonnes per annum of liquefaction capacity. ^[19]

For the market, this is a two-sided signal:

• In the short-to-medium term, fewer new terminals could be supportive for U.S. balances if demand growth from LNG slows.
• In the long term, it highlights how financing and cost inflation can gatekeep the next wave of LNG—potentially preventing the most bearish oversupply scenarios from materializing on schedule.

Qatar keeps the long game in focus

While some U.S. capacity ambitions are being reassessed, Qatar’s expansion narrative keeps moving.

Italy’s Saipem won an offshore EPCI contract from QatarEnergy LNG (in partnership with China’s COOEC), with the overall contract value around $4 billion and Saipem’s share around $3.1 billion. The work is described on a multi‑year timeline, with offshore installation operations expected later in the decade. ^[20]

The strategic message is clear: Qatar’s North Field-linked expansion remains one of the most consequential supply additions expected for the second half of the 2020s.

For traders and policymakers, that raises the central question: Will demand growth (Europe’s LNG reliance, Asia’s industrial/power growth, and new uses like data center power demand) keep pace with the supply wave? ^[21]

Europe: policy is tightening even as prices stay calm

European gas is increasingly shaped by policy—and by the reality that LNG is now a structural pillar of supply.

EU moves closer to a Russian gas phase-out

The European Parliament approved the bloc’s plan to phase out Russian gas imports, including halting Russian LNG by end‑2026 and ending pipeline gas imports by end‑September 2027. Reuters reported Russia accounted for about 12% of EU gas imports as of October 2025, down sharply from pre‑2022 levels. ^[22]

This is a long-duration bullish factor for LNG infrastructure and flexible supply—but it doesn’t automatically translate into high near-term prices if weather is mild and inventories are adequate.

Methane regulation becomes a trade friction point

Another European factor that could influence LNG flows—and compliance costs—is methane policy.

Reuters reported the U.S. asked the EU to exempt U.S. oil and gas imports from aspects of the EU’s methane emissions regulation until 2035, framing it as a trade barrier and warning of implementation challenges given complex U.S. supply chains and commingled molecules. The EU, however, signaled the legislation stands while discussing implementation pathways. ^[23]

For market participants, methane rules can affect contract structures, certification practices, and potentially the attractiveness of certain supply sources over time—particularly in a world where Europe is expected to remain a premium LNG buyer for years.

Trading infrastructure: TTF’s financial market is getting bigger

Even as prices soften, European gas market activity is expanding. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) reported record trading volumes for benchmark Dutch TTF contracts in 2025 and said it is preparing to extend trading hours to better align with global cycles, reflecting how Europe’s gas pricing is increasingly connected to Henry Hub and Asian LNG benchmarks. ^[24]

East Mediterranean gas: Israel’s Leviathan deal reshapes Egypt’s supply picture

A major regional headline this week came from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Reuters reported Israel approved what it described as its largest-ever natural gas export deal—valued around $34.67 billion—to supply Egypt with gas from the Leviathan field. The deal referenced roughly 130 bcm of gas through 2040 (or until the contract value is met), and it comes as Egypt works through an energy crunch linked to domestic production declines and rising demand. ^[25]

Why this matters beyond the region:

• Egypt’s ability to secure reliable pipeline gas can influence whether it becomes a steadier LNG exporter again—or remains a net importer during tight periods.
• The deal underscores how “regional pipeline gas” can still compete with LNG in certain corridors, even as Europe globalizes gas through LNG.

Australia’s domestic gas debate highlights a global tension

Natural gas is increasingly global: LNG prices and flows often ripple back into domestic energy bills.

In Australia, policy debate remains active over how to protect local consumers and industry from LNG-linked price pressures. Reporting highlighted concerns around high gas prices and scrutiny of mechanisms meant to ensure adequate domestic supply. ^[26]

For global readers, the takeaway is broader than Australia: countries that are large LNG exporters often face political pressure to “decouple” domestic pricing from international markets—especially when cost-of-living becomes a dominant theme.

Forecasts for 2026: what major outlooks are saying now

Forecasting gas is notoriously difficult because weather dominates and LNG is both a demand source and a volatility amplifier. Still, several major outlooks released or highlighted in December frame today’s debate: Is the recent pullback a pause—or a reset lower?

EIA: firmer 2026, strong LNG exports, and winter volatility risk

In its December Short‑Term Energy Outlook messaging, EIA forecast Henry Hub natural gas prices at $3.56/mmBtu for 2025 and $4.01/mmBtu for 2026, and described winter conditions putting upward pressure on prices—projecting a winter average around $4.30/mmBtu in its forecast narrative. EIA also projected U.S. LNG gross exports rising to ~16 bcfd in 2026 (from ~15 bcfd in 2025). ^[27]

Enverus: the winter spike looked “premature”

Enverus Intelligence Research projected Henry Hub prices averaging about $3.80/mmBtu through winter before softening to around $3.60/mmBtu in summer 2026, arguing the earlier run-up had gotten ahead of fundamentals amid expectations for a mild winter and continued Lower 48 supply growth. ^[28]

Goldman: higher 2026 pricing assumptions than the market is signaling today

Reuters reporting on Goldman’s outlook included expectations that in 2026 Dutch TTF could average around €29/MWh and U.S. natural gas around $4.60/mmBtu, illustrating how some bank forecasts still lean above what today’s softened winter curve implies. ^[29]

Kpler: storage trajectory and LNG imports will decide Europe’s end‑winter comfort

Kpler’s European natural gas outlook suggested EU‑27 storage could end the 2025–26 winter around 36% full, with the estimate sensitive to LNG import expectations and pipeline inflows—another reminder that Europe’s balance is increasingly an LNG scheduling story. ^[30]

What to watch next week (and why it matters)

Natural gas is entering a period where small changes in weather models can drive outsized moves. Here’s what professionals are watching right now:

1. Late‑December / early‑January weather revisions
   With forecasts currently leaning warm, any shift toward sustained cold could quickly reprice the curve—especially given how aggressively winter risk premium has been compressed. ^[31]
2. LNG plant reliability and feedgas trends
   Feedgas is near record highs, but events like the Freeport train outage show how quickly balances can change. ^[32]
3. U.S. storage withdrawals vs. expectations
   The market has been pricing “comfortable” storage conditions; surprises (either direction) will matter more with the curve already leaning bearish. ^[33]
4. Policy signals in Europe
   Russian gas phase-out timelines and methane compliance negotiations are structural, but they can influence contracting, LNG sourcing, and long-run price formation. ^[34]
5. Final investment decisions and cancellations in LNG
   The Energy Transfer pause is a reminder: not all proposed LNG capacity becomes real, and that uncertainty is itself a key driver of 2026–2028 expectations. ^[35]

References

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