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6 01, 2025

Pound Sterling gains traction on improving risk mood

By |2025-01-06T16:00:58+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • GBP/USD trades in positive territory above 1.2450 in the European session on Monday.
  • The technical outlook points to a buildup of recovery momentum.
  • The pair could continue to push higher in case risk flows continue to dominate the market action.

After touching a fresh multi-month low near 1.2350 on Thursday, GBP/USD staged a technical correction and closed in positive territory on Friday. Early Monday, the pair benefits from improving risk mood and continues to stretch higher toward 1.2500.

British Pound PRICE Today

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies today. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.37% -0.44% 0.33% -0.58% -0.49% -0.40% -0.37%
EUR 0.37%   -0.08% 0.64% -0.15% -0.08% 0.00% 0.03%
GBP 0.44% 0.08%   0.73% -0.08% 0.00% 0.08% 0.10%
JPY -0.33% -0.64% -0.73%   -0.90% -0.80% -0.69% -0.47%
CAD 0.58% 0.15% 0.08% 0.90%   0.02% 0.14% 0.18%
AUD 0.49% 0.08% 0.00% 0.80% -0.02%   0.09% 0.09%
NZD 0.40% -0.01% -0.08% 0.69% -0.14% -0.09%   0.02%
CHF 0.37% -0.03% -0.10% 0.47% -0.18% -0.09% -0.02%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

Following a bearish start to the year, Wall Street’s main indexes gathered bullish momentum and registered strong gains on Friday. Early Monday, US stock index futures trade in the green, making it hard for the US Dollar (USD) to hold its ground.

December Factory Orders will be the only noticeable data featured in the US economic calendar on Monday. Ahead of this week’s key employment-related releases, however, investors are unlikely to react to this data. Hence, the risk perception could continue to influence the USD’s valuation and drive GBP/USD’s action.

On Tuesday, JOLTS Job Openings data for November and the ISM Services PMI report for December from the US will be watched closely by market participants.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart rose above 50 and GBP/USD closed the last 4-hour candle above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), highlighting a buildup of recovery momentum.

On the upside, 1.2500 (static level, round level, 50-period SMA) aligns as immediate resistance before 1.2525 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement) of the latest downtrend) and 1.2570-1.2575 (100-period SMA; Fibonacci 50% retracement). Looking south, first support could be spotted at 1.2460-1.2450 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 20-period SMA) ahead of 1.2400 (round level, static level).

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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6 01, 2025

USD/JPY Forecast Today 06/01: Tests Key Resistance (Video)

By |2025-01-06T14:00:03+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The Friday session has seen the US dollar pullback just a bit against the Japanese yen again.
  • Just like we have seen all week, the buyers have stepped in to pick it up. That being said, it isn’t exactly as if it’s a huge move.
  • It’s just the market trying to sort out whether or not we can finally break above the crucial 158 yen level.

The 158 yen level is an area that’s been like a brick wall over the last couple of weeks, but we also have to keep in mind the past couple of weeks have been all about the holidays. Now there is market memory to be found at the 158 yen level, so it all ties in quite easily. I would be surprised to see this market go somewhat sideways, more of a buy on the dip attitude, but sideways overall between now and the jobs number next Friday.

The Jobs Number and Its Importance

That will be your first piece of major information that will possibly drive the US dollar higher in general. The PMI numbers came out during the trading session a little better than anticipated for the dollar. So that’s part of what the recovery was, but really, I don’t even think that was that big of a deal. I think this all comes down to people wanting to continue to own the greenback.

Even if we were to fall from here, the 155 yen level is probably a short-term floor, especially now that the 50-day EMA is running toward it. If we break above the 158 yen level, then the 160 yen level, and then the 161.50 yen level, both come into focus. I do think that eventually happens, and I like the idea of buying dips, because after all, you get paid via swap at the end of every day to hold this USD/JPY pair.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out. 

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6 01, 2025

Euro recovery could pick up steam after German inflation data

By |2025-01-06T11:59:08+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • EUR/USD trades in positive territory above 1.0300 on Monday.
  • Regional and nation-wide inflation data from Germany will be watched closely.
  • The technical outlook points to a loss of bearish momentum in the near term.

After closing in positive territory on Friday, EUR/USD continues to edge higher and trades above 1.0300 in the European morning on Monday. Regional and nation-wide inflation data from Germany could drive the Euro’s valuation later in the session.

Euro PRICE Last 7 days

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   0.90% 0.96% -0.03% -0.15% -0.22% 0.05% 0.67%
EUR -0.90%   0.05% -0.96% -1.09% -1.19% -0.89% -0.28%
GBP -0.96% -0.05%   -1.00% -1.14% -1.24% -0.95% -0.33%
JPY 0.03% 0.96% 1.00%   -0.13% -0.14% 0.24% 0.78%
CAD 0.15% 1.09% 1.14% 0.13%   -0.08% 0.27% 0.82%
AUD 0.22% 1.19% 1.24% 0.14% 0.08%   0.30% 0.92%
NZD -0.05% 0.89% 0.95% -0.24% -0.27% -0.30%   0.62%
CHF -0.67% 0.28% 0.33% -0.78% -0.82% -0.92% -0.62%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).

The improving risk mood heading into the weekend made it difficult for the US Dollar (USD) to find demand and helped EUR/USD erase a portion of its weekly losses on Friday. 

Early Monday, US stock index futures trade marginally higher on the day, not allowing the USD to stay resilient against its rivals. 

Inflation in Germany, as measured by the change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), is forecast to rise to 2.4% on a yearly basis in December from 2.2% in November. In case the CPI rises at a stronger pace than expected, the Euro could gather strength. Investors will also pay close attention to regional CPI figures from Germany. If these data arrive generally higher than anticipated, this could be seen as a sign pointing to a positive surprise in the headline print and provide an early boost to the Euro.

On Tuesday, Eurozone inflation data and ISM Services PMI report from the US could influence EUR/USD’s action.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart recovered to 50, reflecting the loss of bearish momentum. Additionally, EUR/USD closed the last 4-hour candle above the 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA). 

On the upside, 1.0350 (static level), could be seen as first resistance before 1.0400-1.0410 (static level, 100-period SMA) and 1.0440 (static level). Looking south, supports could be spotted at 1.0300 (static level, round level), 1.0240 (static level) and 1.0200 (static level).

Euro FAQs

The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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6 01, 2025

XAG/USD bears have the upper hand while below 200-day SMA near $30.00

By |2025-01-06T11:08:06+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Silver kicks off the new week on a weaker note and seems vulnerable to weakening further.
  • The recent failures near the 200-day SMA validate the negative outlook for the XAG/USD.
  • A sustained strength beyond the $30.00 mark is needed to negate the near-term bearish bias. 

Silver (XAG/USD) extends Friday’s modest pullback from the vicinity of the $30.00 psychological mark and edges lower at the start of a new week. The white metal drops below the mid-$29.00s during the Asian session and now seems to have stalled its recovery from a multi-month trough touched in December. 

From a technical perspective, the recent breakdown and repeated failures near the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) favor bearish traders. This, along with the fact that oscillators on the daily chart are holding in negative territory, suggests that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the $29.40 area will reaffirm the outlook and make the commodity vulnerable to weakening towards the $29.00 mark.

The downside trajectory could extend further towards the $28.75-$28.70 region, or the multi-month low, which should act as a key pivotal point. A sustained break below will set the stage for an extension of a well-established downtrend from the $35.00 neighborhood, or a multi-year peak touched in October. 

On the flip side, the $30.00 mark (200-day SMA) might continue to act as an immediate strong barrier, above a bout of a short-covering could lift the XAG/USD to the next relevant hurdle near the $30.50 area. The momentum could eventually allow the white metal to reclaim the $31.00 mark and test the $31.15-$31.20 supply zone.

Silver daily chart

Silver FAQs

Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.

Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.

Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.

Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

 



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6 01, 2025

US Dollar Forecast: Factory Orders in Focus, Gold and GBP/USD Outlook

By |2025-01-06T09:57:32+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Gold Price Chart

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,632.27, facing bearish pressure after failing to break resistance at $2,662.26. Immediate support lies at $2,612.14, with stronger support at $2,583.80. The 50 EMA at $2,632.77 acts as near-term resistance, while the 200 EMA at $2,641.67 caps broader upside. Bulls need to push above $2,642.17 to regain momentum, while the descending trendline maintains downward pressure.

Sterling Weakens Amid Disappointing UK Data

The British Pound (GBP) faced headwinds on Friday as economic data fell short of expectations. M4 Money Supply stagnated at 0.0% (forecast: 0.1%), while Mortgage Approvals dropped to 66K, missing the 69K forecast. Net Lending to Individuals also declined to £3.4B, below the expected £4.4B.

Looking ahead, the Final Services PMI (forecast: 51.4) on Monday will be closely watched to assess the services sector’s resilience and its impact on Sterling.

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6 01, 2025

XAU/USD buyers stay hopeful whilst above 21-day SMA support

By |2025-01-06T07:05:26+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price finds support and looks at $2,650 as the US Nonfarm Payrolls week begins.        
  • The US Dollar corrects further despite firm US Treasury bond yields and a cautious mood.
  • Technically, daily indicators continue to paint a bullish picture for Gold price.

Gold price is finding fresh demand early Monday as buyers look to regain $2,650 after correcting from three-week highs of $2,665 on Friday.   

Gold price looks to US data and China’s stimulus optimism

The renewed upside in Gold price could be linked to fresh optimism surrounding more stimulus coming through from China after the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) pledged over the weekend that it will step up financial support for technology innovation and consumption stimulation as part of a continued effort to boost economic growth, per Bloomberg. 

Additionally, Gold buyers cheer the strong Chinese Caixin Services PMI, which shot to a seven-month high of 52.2 in December versus 51.7 expected. China is the world’s biggest Gold consumer, and any efforts by the Chinese authorities to ramp up the economic performance will likely bode well for the bright metal.

Furthermore, markets remain wary of the upcoming policies of US President-elect Donald Trump and the US Federal Reserve (Fed), helping Gold price stay afloat even as the US Treasury bond yields continue to hold firm near multi-month highs.

The US Dollar (USD) has reversed strong US ISM Manufacturing PMI-led gains, currently trading in the red, aiding the Gold price rebound.

However, it remains to be seen if the USD sustains the pullback heading into the mid-tier US final PMI and Factory Orders data releases. Speeches by Fed policymakers will also remain crucuial to determining the Fed’s policy move this month, significantly impacting the USD-denominated Gold price.

Markets are also likely to trade cautiously, gearing up for a series of labor data from the US later this week.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

The daily chart shows that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above the 50 level, backing the bullish bias for Gold price.

Meanwhile, Gold price defends the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,638 after failing to sustain above the 50-day SMA of $2,651 on Friday.

Gold buyers remain poised to regain the 50-day SMA barrier as long as the 21-day SMA support holds.

The next relevant topside barrier is seen at the three-week high of $2,665, above which the $2,700 level will come into play.

On the flip side, a sustained move below the 21-day SMA at $2,638 will expose the 100-day SMA at $2,627.

A daily candlestick close below the latter will open the door for a retest of the previous week’s low of $2,596.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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6 01, 2025

XAU/USD holds below $2,650 as traders await fresh catalysts

By |2025-01-06T05:01:36+02:00January 6, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


  • Gold price holds steady around $2,640 in Monday’s early Asian session.
  • US Manufacturing PMI improved to 49.3 in December vs. 48.4 prior, stronger than expected. 
  • Sustained geopolitical risks and a wave of purchases by central banks could lift the Gold price. 

The Gold price (XAU/USD) struggles to gain ground near $2,640 during the early Asian trading hours on Monday. The stronger US Dollar (USD) after the US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) weighs on the yellow metal. All eyes will be on the US labor market data for December on Friday for fresh impetus. 

Data released by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) on Friday showed that the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.3 in December from 48.4 in November. This reading was above the market consensus of 48.4. The upbeat data has lifted the Greenback and dragged the USD-denominated commodity price lower. 

Furthermore, the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) projection of fewer interest rate cuts could undermine the non-yielding asset. The US central bank decided to cut the interest rates in December but signaled that borrowing costs will fall more slowly than previously expected this year. 

On the other hand, economic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions might boost a safe-haven asset like Gold. On Sunday, Israel and Hamas wrangled over a deal to cease violence in the Gaza Strip and return hostages home as Palestinian officials said that Israeli bombardments killed over 100 people over the weekend.

Central bank purchasing activities could contribute to the precious metal’s upside. Central banks are forecast to continue to be net buyers of around 8 million oz. in 2025, roughly unchanged to a bit lower than in 2024. 

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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5 01, 2025

Domestic coffee prices forecast to continue to decline on January 6, 1

By |2025-01-05T20:58:29+02:00January 5, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Market the coffee world

Robusta coffee prices on the London floor updated at 15:30 p.m. on January 5, 2025 are still fluctuating between 4727 and 4968 USD/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 4968 USD/ton; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 4897 USD/ton; the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 4817 USD/ton and the monthly delivery term September 2025 is 4727 USD/ton.

Organic coffee garden of VNUM Coffee Import-Export Company Limited_C/9 Dak Lak. Photo: Danh Huu

Similarly, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor on the afternoon of January 5, 2025 was also unchanged compared to the previous day, fluctuating from 302.20 – 318.65 cents/lb. Specifically, the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 318.65 cents/lb, the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 314.90 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 309.10 cents/lb and the monthly delivery term September 2025 was 302.20 cents/lb.

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee on the morning of January 5, 2025 was updated as follows: The range is from 372.85 – 402.50 USD/ton. Specifically, the monthly delivery period March 2025 is 402.50 USD/ton; the monthly delivery period May 2025 is 392.25 USD/ton; the monthly delivery period July 2025 is 384.45 USD/ton; the monthly delivery period September 2025 is 372.85 USD/ton.

The highest domestic coffee price is 120.500 VND/kg

According to information from Giacaphe.com, at 15:30 p.m. today, domestic coffee prices remained unchanged compared to yesterday, remaining at an average of 120.300 VND/kg.

Coffee price forecast tomorrow October 6, 1:
Coffee in Duc Trong district, Lam Dong province. Photo: Le Son

In the Central Highlands region, the province Lam Dong is still the locality with the lowest coffee purchasing price at 119.800 VND/kg. On the contrary, Dak Nong continues to hold the position of the place with the highest coffee purchase price, reaching 120.500 VND/kg.

Specifically, coffee prices in the Central Highlands provinces are recorded as follows: Dak Nong: 120.500 VND/kg, Dak Lak: 120.300 VND/kg, Gia Lai: 120.200 VND/kg and Lam Dong: 119.800 VND/kg.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 6/ 1 / 2025

Vietnam’s coffee industry is facing major challenges as it enters the final months of 2024. Industry experts have expressed concerns about a sharp decline in coffee export volume, especially in the fourth quarter of 4.

It is estimated that coffee export volume in the fourth quarter of 4 will only reach about 2024-160.000 tons. This figure is not only lower than previous months but also equal to the export volume of a December in previous years. This shows a serious downward trend in Vietnam’s coffee supply.

Meanwhile, the global and domestic coffee markets are expected to continue to fluctuate, affected by various factors such as climate change, consumption demand and trade policy. To overcome these challenges, the Vietnamese coffee industry needs to make timely adjustments.

Experts recommend that the coffee industry should soon adjust its development strategy to maintain sustainable growth. Investing in technology and improving production processes can help improve coffee quality and output, thereby creating a competitive advantage in the international market.

In the short term, specifically tomorrow January 6, 2025, experts predict that coffee prices may continue to decrease, predicting a decrease of about 400 – 700 VND/kg.

Sources: https://congthuong.vn/du-bao-gia-ca-phe-trong-nuoc-ngay-612025-tiep-da-giam-368024.html



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5 01, 2025

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

By |2025-01-05T19:47:19+02:00January 5, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Fundamental Analysis & Market Sentiment

I wrote on 29th December that the best trade opportunities for the week were likely to be:

The weekly loss of 0.79% equals 0.26% per asset.

Last week saw a more active market as the Christmas holiday came to an end; the very few key takeaways were:

  1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI was better than expected, suggesting the US economy is still buoyant.
  2. US Unemployment Claims – a fraction better than expected.
  3. Chinese Manufacturing PMI – a small fraction worse than expected.

Last week saw continued risk-off sentiment, with particular fears of President-Elect Trump’s recent tariff threats and of slowing growth data in many G20 nations. However, towards the end of last week, there was a recovery in risk sentiment. However, two US Fed members made hawkish comments over the weekend about inflation not yet being under control, which may boost the US Dollar and weaken US stocks when markets open Monday.

The British Pound and Euro are notably weak in the Forex market, while the US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are strong.

There was little high-impact data last week, but there will be this coming week, so markets will probably be much more active now that the seasonal holiday is over.

The Week Ahead: 6th – 10th January

The coming week has a much fuller schedule, so we are very likely to see increased market activity and volatility.

The coming week’s important data points are:

  1. US Average Hourly Earnings
  2. US FOMC Meeting Minutes
  3. US Non-Farm Payrolls
  4. US JOLTS Job Openings
  5. US ISM Services PMI
  6. German Preliminary CPI (inflation)
  7. Australian CPI (inflation)
  8. Swiss CPI (inflation)
  9. US Unemployment Claims
  10. US Unemployment Rate
  11. Canadian Unemployment Rate

Monday is a public holiday in Italy.

Monthly Forecast January 2025

For the month of December, I forecasted that the EUR/USD currency pair would fall in value. The final performance of my forecast was:

 

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

For January, I forecasted that the USD/JPY currency pair would rise in value and that the EUR/USD currency pair would fall in value

Weekly Forecast 5th January 2025

Last week, I made no weekly forecast as there were no unusually strong price movements in currency crosses, which is the basis of my trading strategy.

The Japanese Yen was the strongest major currency, while the Euro was the weakest. Volatility was much higher last week, with 30% of the most important Forex currency pairs and crosses changing in value by more than 1%. It is likely to increase again this week.

You can trade these forecasts in a real or demo Forex brokerage account.

Key Support/Resistance Levels for Popular Pairs

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

Technical Analysis

US Dollar Index

Last week, the US Dollar Index again printed a bullish candlestick that continued toward the long-term bullish trend, bullishly breaking out to make its highest close in more than 2 years. The price is above its price from three and six months ago, suggesting a healthy long-term bullish trend in the greenback that should be exploitable. The breakout was from an inside bar, which suggests that momentum could be good. On the other hand, the weekly candlestick has a significant upper wick, which shows the Dollar has already given back some of its gains.

I have plenty of fundamental reasons to be bullish on the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tilt three weeks ago, which took markets by surprise and triggered a rise in the greenback and a sharp selloff in stocks, while US treasury yields rose. Comments from two Fed members over the weekend that inflation is still not under control could also produce hawkish sentiment towards the greenback and push the price higher still, stoking bullish momentum here.

Overall, the Dollar is more likely to rise than fall over the coming week. The price has room to rise to at least the next resistance level at 110.00.

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair is in a valid long-term bearish trend. This currency pair typically takes its time to move, with its trends usually including plenty of deep retracements, but for almost three weeks after plunging to a new long-term low price well below $1.0400, the price consolidated without turning definitively bearish.

This has changed over the past three weeks, and the past week finally saw a further significant breakdown. The Euro suddenly weakened, although it is not obvious why. The price traded below $1.0225 for a time, its lowest price in more than two years.

This currency pair often has very reliable trends, so I am interested in being short, especially after last week’s breakdown, which has it now trading in “blue sky”.

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

USD/JPY

The USD/JPY currency pair did not rise last week, although the fact that the entire week was a public holiday in Japan was significant. However, the souring risk sentiment in global markets has boosted the Japanese Yen to begin acting as a safe haven again, and recent weeks have seen Japanese monetary policy as a stronger driver of the price.

I still see this currency pair as a buy, as it tends to trend quite reliably over the long term, but I have less confidence in this trend than I do in the bearish trend in EUR/USD because the price here is still well below a relatively recent peak.

Another factor lowering my confidence in the bullish trend is that the Bank of Japan will eventually start implementing a more hawkish monetary policy. When that finally really starts to happen with the Bank of Japan’s next rate hike, the price will be very likely to start moving down, so the trend is vulnerable to policy.

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

USD/CAD

Last week, the USD/CAD currency pair printed another bullish candlestick, closing near its high, but the price did not quite make a new 2-year high. A look at the weekly chart below shows that the bullish momentum has been strong here since October, and the trend here has been stronger and clearer than any other trend in the Forex market, which does not often happen in this currency pair as the US and Canadian economies do not tend to be divergent.

The story is really about US economic success and a more hawkish Fed boosting the greenback, while Canada is dealing with several problems right now, both financial and political, which are feeding through to make a weaker Loonie.

This currency pair does not trend very reliably, so I don’t take long-term trades in it, but it certainly looks very weak right now. All the commodity currencies except maybe the Australian Dollar are looking very weak right now, so it might be an idea to use the CAD and the NZD together as the short component of any Forex trades you are making this week, or at least part of the short component by creating a basket. For example, if you were short two lots of EUR/USD, you might also be one lot of USD/CAD long.

Of course, early January can cause strange and volatile price movements in the Forex market that can end trends quickly, so keep an eye out for that.

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

NZD/USD

Last week, the NZD/USD currency pair printed a fifth consecutive bearish candlestick, closing not far from its low. It closed at a new 2-year low, a significant bearish breakdown in any asset. However, the candlestick was small, suggesting that momentum may have slowed, although it was a holiday week, so the market was slow.

This currency pair does not trend very reliably, so I don’t take long-term trades in it, but it certainly looks very weak right now. The Aussie has gotten a bit stronger, but for a few weeks, I have been talking about weakness in all the commodity currencies, notably the Canadian Dollar and the Kiwi.

Weekly Forex Forecast – 05/01: (Charts)

Bottom Line

I see the best trading opportunities this week as:

  • Short of the EUR/USD currency pair.
  • Long of the USD/JPY currency pair.

Ready to trade our Forex weekly forecast? Check out our list of the top best Forex brokers.

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5 01, 2025

Vietnamese coffee sets many records in 2024; Coffee price forecast in 2025?

By |2025-01-05T02:47:43+02:00January 5, 2025|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Coffee price today January 1, 2025

Coffee price world Declining in the trading sessions at the end of the old year 2024 and early 2025, the commodity market witnessed a quiet trading session and continued to adjust slightly down before the holidays due to weak trading activities and some year-end book-balancing activities.

However, for the full year of 2024, coffee is the strongest performing commodity for the second consecutive year due to a global supply shortage. The monthly robusta coffee futures contract March 2025 ended 2024 up more than 70%. After 1 year, robusta is up to 4.875 USD/ton, arabica is up to 319,75 cents/lb.

Currently, the impact on the coffee market – the Brazilian Real has lost nearly 9% of its value against the USD since the beginning of December, encouraging Brazilian producers to increase sales on the international market. Meanwhile, in Vietnam, harvesting activities continue to be hampered by rain.

Domestic coffee prices on the last day of the old year (December 31, 2024) turned down by 700 – 800 VND/kg, down to 119.700 – 120.500 VND/kg. At the end of 2024, the price of green coffee beans in the Central Highlands – Vietnam’s key coffee production area – fluctuated between 119.700 – 120.500 VND/kg, an increase of nearly 80% (about 52.000 VND/kg) over the past year. During the year, there was a time when domestic coffee prices reached an all-time high, exceeding 130.000 VND/kg.

Thanks to high prices, exports also had a brilliant 1 year. The General Department of Customs said that coffee export turnover as of 15/12 has reached 5,2 billion USD. This is the first time in the history of the Vietnamese coffee industry that coffee export turnover has exceeded the 5 billion USD mark in a year. High prices have made farmers excited and expect the 2025 year to continue to be successful.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the year trading session (31/2024) decreased by 700 – 800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. (Source: europosters.eu)

Notes of World & Vietnam, at the end of the first trading session of the week (30/12), the price of robusta coffee on the ICE Futures Europe London monthly delivery term March 2025 continued to decrease 32 USD, trading at 4.921 USD/ton. The monthly delivery term May 2025 decreased 29 USD, trading at 4.855 USD/ton. The average trading volume was low.

Arabica coffee prices on the ICE Futures US New York floor also decreased, with the monthly delivery term March 2025 decreasing by 1,65 cents, trading at 321,00 cents/lb. Meanwhile, the monthly delivery term May 2025 decreasing by 0,65 cents, trading at 316,95 cents/lb. Average trading volume.

Domestic coffee prices at the end of the year trading session (31/2024) decreased by 700 – 800 VND/kg in some key purchasing localities. Unit: VND/kg

Average price

Medium

Exchange rate USD/VND

25.221

 + 8

DAK LAK

120.300

– 700

Lam Dong

119.700

– 800

FAITH

120.300

– 700

DAK AGRICULTURE

120.500

– 800

(Source: giacaphe.com)

For now, the market outlook is muted as investors await the Federal Reserve’s 2025 outlook report, due next week. Coffee prices are also under pressure from a stronger US dollar and improved ICE certified inventories.

Coffee prices have surged in 2024, supported by adverse weather in producing countries, especially the two largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam. Severe drought in Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, has caused Arabica prices to surge to their highest level in more than 40 years.

Thus, coffee prices have been rising for quite a long time, now reaching a historical peak according to Trading Economics. The global coffee market is at a major crossroads as it enters 2025, with unpredictable developments from supply, weather, to currency fluctuations. Will coffee prices continue to rise or is this a time for adjustment?

The “dominant factors” of the market in 2024, such as supply disruptions, climate change and geopolitical tensions, are the main reasons for the high prices, posing many interesting predictions for 2025. Experts are particularly concerned that the upcoming crop will still be heavily affected, increasing the pressure on global supply.

Coffee prices are expected to remain high in 2025, with significant volatility due to climate disruptions, supply chain challenges and changing demand dynamics. Both the arabica and robusta markets face tight supply conditions, ensuring strong prices in the short to medium term.

The coffee market in 2025 is forecast to remain vibrant, with a mix of risks and opportunities. Factors such as weather, currency fluctuations, and global supply and demand will determine the direction of coffee prices in the coming year. With many potential uncertainties, coffee is likely to continue to be one of the most notable commodities in the global commodity market.

Sources: https://baoquocte.vn/gia-ca-phe-hom-nay-112025-ca-phe-viet-nam-ghi-nhieu-ky-luc-trong-nam-2024-du-bao-gia-ca-phe-nam-2025-299257.html





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