Created on December 27, 2024

• In my daily analysis of the commodity markets, the West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has caught my attention.
• The WTI Crude Oil (US Oil) market has been going sideways for some time, and I think this might end up being one of the more interesting trades in the early part of 2025.
• That being said, this is a market that also needs some type of reason to get going.

From a fundamental analysis standpoint, there are concerns about whether or not demand will be strong enough to warrant higher pricing, but I do think eventually demand does pick up. Keep in mind that the central banks around the world continue to loosen monetary policy, and eventually that should have some type of influence on business expenditures. If the economy starts moving again, the first place that you see benefit from it typically will be the crude oil markets, as energy of course is necessary for the economy to get going, especially when you’re talking about international trade.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this crude oil market is fairly neutral at the moment, but it is worth noting that we are hanging around the crucial 50 Day EMA. The $72.50 level above is a significant amount of resistance and breaking above that would obviously be a major victory for the bulls. The 200 Day EMA sits just above there, and I do think that is going to be a bit of an issue. On the other hand, to the downside we have plenty of support near the $67 level, and then again at the $65 level. When you look at the longer-term charts, the $65 level is a major support level going back at least a couple of years. This suggests to me that perhaps we are getting close to bottoming completely, and now we are just waiting for some type of fundamental reason to continue going higher. I think we get that sooner or later, but again, I think this is probably a story for 2025.

In the meantime, I think a lot of traders are just simply buying the dips and taking advantage of “cheap barrels of oil” anytime they get the opportunity. However, I don’t know that many people out there are confident enough to hang onto their long positions, and that might be part of what we are seeing play out on the charts.

Ready to trade the daily crude oil Forex forecast? Here’s a list of some of the best Oil trading platforms to check out. 

Hits New Trend High of 4.01

Natural gas rallied to a new trend high of 4.01 on Thursday and generated another sequential higher daily high and higher low, the sixth day in a row. At the time of this writing, it continues to trade near the lows of the day, which was 3.67.

That is short-term support and if it is broken to the downside a drop to test support around the prior trend high of 3.56 is likely or a test of the 20-Day MA, currently at 3.37. The 20-Day line is a key dynamic support indicator for the near-term bull trend as it was tested and held as support on several days since the October swing low (red). That trend is marked by a rising ABCD pattern (red).

Above 20-Day Line is Bullish

If natural gas can retain a position above the 20-Day line, it has a chance to continue higher as the uptrend lower boundary would be retained. It is interesting to notice that there are several rising trendlines that cross above current price levels at approximately 4.39 and 4.45.

Those levels are within a potential resistance zone that begins around 4.33 to 4.42. That price level is the initial target from the red ABCD pattern shown on the chart. The crossovers also show possible resistance around the price zone. Therefore, it makes sense to expand the target zone to 4.33 to 4.45.

Bullish Outlook Retained

Notice that natural gas could continue to advance higher and stay within the top channel line and internal rising trend line. Together, they generate a potential rising wedge pattern. One possibility to consider is that natural gas could proceed and stay within the boundaries of the pattern to eventually reach the 4.33 target without breaking through either boundary line of the wedge.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Flag Breakout Above 71.41

A decisive rally above the top of the flag at 71.41 will trigger a breakout. The prior interim swing high at 71.79 should then easily be exceeded if there is upside momentum. That would put the recent swing high at 73.27 as an initial upside target. However, a breakout of the bull flag would solidify the recent reclaims of the 20-Day and 50-Day MAs and set the stage for improved bullish sentiment. Higher initial targets following a flag breakout include the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 74.42 and the 78.6% retracement at 76.47.

Larger Patterns Show Downward Pressure

Stepping back to consider the larger pattern, the fractal nature of the market is shown by the recent small symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern that formed following a larger symmetrical triangle. On an annual basis, crude oil looks likely to close negative for 2024 and at a lower annual closing price than 2023.

This would be the second year in a row that crude ended the year lower than the year before. It reflects the bearish nature of the breakdown from the large symmetrical triangle in September and subsequent bearish small symmetrical triangle. The small triangle is considered potentially bearish since it is contained within a larger downtrend price structure, and it formed below prior support and now resistance that is represented by the lower boundary line of the triangle.

Price volatility has compressed the past couple of months during the consolidation phase. This could set the stage for a spike in volatility if the breakout from the small triangle starts to see greater interest. A bullish breakout of the flag would go a long way towards attracting buyers.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Coffee price world jar is fine

Giá cà phê Robusta trên sàn London cập nhật lúc 15 giờ 00 phút ngày December 26, 2024 dao động từ 4754 – 5041 USD/tấn. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 5041 USD/tấn; kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 4953 USD/tấn; kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 4858 USD/tấn; kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng September 2025 tăng 4754 USD/tấn.

Tương tự, giá cà phê Arabica trên sàn New York chiều ngày December 26, 2024, cũng dao động từ 307.45 – 328.60 cent/lb. Cụ thể, kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 328.60 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 323.35 cent/lb; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 315.95 cent/lb và kỳ giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 307.45 cent/lb.

Giá cà phê Arabica Brazil được cập nhật như sau: Kỳ giao hàng tháng March 2025 là 408.60 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng May 2025 là 401.45 USD/tấn; kỳ giao hàng tháng July 2025 là 391.10 USD/tấn và kỳ hạn giao hàng tháng September 2025 là 375.35 USD/tấn.

Giá cà phê trong nước bật tăng

Theo thông tin từ Giacaphe.com, cập nhật giá cà phê lúc 15 giờ 30 phút hôm nay ngày December 26, 2024, giá cà phê trong nước vẫn giữ ở mức 121.500 đồng/kg, tăng +800 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

Sau khi thu hoạch người dân làm sạch cà phê. Ảnh: Hiền Mai

Giá cà phê cao nhất thu mua ở các vùng trọng điểm của Tây Nguyên được ghi nhận ở mức 121.700 đồng/kg. Trong đó, 3 tỉnh đều có mức tăng +800 đồng/kg (giá cà phê hôm nay tại Dak Lak at 121.500 VND/kg; coffee price at Lam Dong has a price of 121.000 VND/kg; coffee price at Gia Lai hôm nay có mức giá 121.400 đồng/kg). Riêng, giá cà phê tại Dak Nong là 121.700 đồng/kg, tăng +700 đồng/kg so với ngày hôm qua.

The domestic coffee prices that Giacaphe.com lists every day are calculated based on the prices of two world coffee exchanges combined with continuous surveys from businesses and purchasing agents in key coffee growing areas across the country.

Y5Cafe always tries to stay as close as possible to each region, however there will be days when the listed price does not completely match the local coffee purchase price, but Y5Cafe believes that the listed information is a valuable reference source for farmers and coffee purchasing businesses.

Coffee price prediction tomorrow 27/ 12 / 2024

Theo ghi nhận, giá cà phê ngày December 26, 2024 tại khu vực Tây Nguyên dao động từ 120.600 – 121.400 đồng/kg, tăng 700 – 800 đồng/kg so với ngày trước đó.

Dựa trên diễn biến thị trường hiện tại, giới chuyên gia dự đoán giá cà phê trong nước ngày December 27, 2024 sẽ tăng nhẹ từ 100 – 200 đồng/kg. Tuy nhiên, giá cà phê còn phụ thuộc vào nhiều yếu tố như thời tiết, tình hình thu hoạch và biến động tỷ giá.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has shown itself to be somewhat positive in the early hours on Tuesday as it looks like we are trying to grind our way toward the $72.50 level again, the $72.50 level is a significant resistance barrier, so I think it does take a little bit of effort to finally get above there, but if and when we do, I think we really start to take off. Over the last several months, we’ve been building a bit of a base in this market, and now the question is, will we get some type of momentum? Short-term pullbacks, for me at least, are going to continue to be buying opportunities.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis

The Brent market, of course, looks very much the same and is testing the crucial 50-day EMA. The 50-day EMA, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people pay attention to. And with that being the case, I suspect it’s probably only a matter of time before we start to see people chase. If we can break above the $76 level, I think that opens up the next leg higher.