Platinum price continued forming strong bullish waves, taking advantage of its stability within the main bullish channel’s levels, besides forming extra support at $1740.00 level, recording new historical gains by hitting 1828.00 level, to record the previously suggested targets.

Note that the continuation of providing positive momentum by the main indicators will motivate the price to resume the rise and record new gains by its rally towards $1847.00 and $1865.00, while reaching below $1740.00 will increase the chances of activating the profit- taking path, to expect reaching $1720.00 and $1675.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1750.00 and $ 1847.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Copper prices are back in focus heading into the final stretch of 2025, with the “red metal” hovering near record territory after a sharp run-up and an equally sharp bout of volatility late last week.

As of the latest mid‑afternoon pricing available, benchmark COMEX copper futures (most‑active contract) traded around $5.4185 per pound, up about 1.1% on the day, with the day’s range roughly $5.3433–$5.5192, according to Investing.com’s derived real-time feed.  ^[1]

In London, copper is still being priced like a market wrestling with two competing stories: (1) tightness and inventory distortions linked to U.S. stockpiling and (2) macro and China-demand anxiety that can knock prices around quickly. On Monday, Reuters reported LME three‑month copper up about 1.4% to $11,678 per metric ton by late afternoon in Europe.  ^[2]

Below is what’s moving copper today, the biggest headlines from Dec. 15, 2025, and where major forecasts are landing for 2026.

Copper price now: the key levels traders are watching

Copper is being quoted differently depending on the benchmark and venue, but the message is consistent: prices are elevated, and the market is moving in big, fast increments.

• COMEX (U.S.) copper futures: around $5.4185/lb, +1.11% on the session in the latest update, with heavy volume for the day and a wide intraday range.  ^[3]
• LME (London) three‑month copper: $11,678/mt, +1.4% in Reuters’ session update.  ^[4]
• LME three‑month (SMM/Metal.com feed): last quoted around $11,686/mt, +1.16%, with a reported daily range up to $11,890.5/mt.  ^[5]

The market is also still digesting Friday’s record-setting spike. Reuters noted copper hit a record high of $11,952/mt on Friday before volatility returned.  ^[6]

What’s driving copper today: dollar moves, short covering, and a China tug-of-war

1) A weaker dollar is offering near-term support

Copper is priced in dollars globally, so a softer greenback can mechanically make dollar‑denominated metals more attractive for non‑U.S. buyers. Reuters specifically pointed to a weaker dollar supporting copper on Monday even as China concerns lingered.  ^[7]

2) Traders are repositioning into settlement and year-end

One of the more “market microstructure” drivers today is positioning. Reuters described short (bearish) positions being cut or rolled ahead of midweek settlement.  ^[8]
That matters because when positioning becomes crowded, price can jump quickly on relatively ordinary headlines.

3) China’s mixed signals still cap enthusiasm

Copper can rally hard on supply tightness, but it’s still tethered to end-demand expectations—especially from China.

Reuters highlighted that China’s factory output growth slowed to a 15‑month low in November, while new home prices extended a decline, underscoring persistent property‑sector pressure.  ^[9]
That combination—slower industrial momentum and fragile real estate—keeps the market wary of extrapolating high prices into a straight line.

Inventories are the pressure point: LME stocks vs U.S. stockpiling

If there’s a single structural theme running through today’s copper market, it’s the inventory and flow story—particularly the idea that metal is being “pulled” into U.S. warehouses.

Reuters reported that about 39% of 165,875 tons of copper in LME‑registered warehouses was marked for delivery out(i.e., earmarked to leave), a statistic traders watch because it can signal tightening availability.  ^[10]

At the same time, Reuters said daily inflows into COMEX copper stocks continued, with inventories already at record highs, driven by higher U.S. prices and arbitrage incentives.  ^[11]

This is why copper can feel “tight” even when macro data (especially from China) looks soft: where the metal sits—and where it’s moving—can dominate the price action.

Fresh forecasts and outlook changes dated Dec. 15, 2025

Goldman Sachs lifts its 2026 copper forecast

A major headline for Dec. 15 is Goldman Sachs raising its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400/mt from $10,650/mt, according to a Reuters item carried by TradingView.  ^[12]

The reasoning is explicitly linked to trade policy probabilities and affordability politics: Goldman cited reduced odds of a refined copper tariff being implemented in the first half of 2026—not “no tariff risk,” but a shifting timeline.  ^[13]

Goldman also put numbers around tariff scenarios, saying there is a 55% chance of a 15% tariff on copper importsbeing announced in the first half of 2026, with implementation slated for 2027 and the possibility of higher rates later.  ^[14]

Just as importantly, that same Reuters/TradingView update frames the tariff narrative as a global pricing engine: the prospect of future tariffs could keep U.S. copper trading at a premium, encourage stockpiling, and tighten supply outside the U.S.  ^[15]

Citi’s bullish scenario gains attention: $13,000 early 2026 and $15,000 in Q2

Another widely circulated Dec. 15 read-through is Citi’s more aggressive upside case. AASTOCKS reported Citi’s view that copper could rise to $13,000/mt early next year and potentially reach $15,000/mt in Q2 2026, supported by limited mine supply and U.S. stockpiling dynamics.  ^[16]

AASTOCKS also emphasizes the thematic demand story—electrification, grid expansion, and data-center buildouts—as ongoing support for higher copper pricing into 2026.  ^[17]

“Expect choppy, volatile trade” into year-end

Even the near-term tone from market strategists is cautious on the path, if not the direction. Reuters quoted Marex senior metals strategist Alastair Munro warning that prices are likely to remain “choppy and volatile” into year-end and into the first quarter.  ^[18]

That’s an important cue for anyone following copper “price today” headlines: the market is not only high—it is fast.

Today’s market-structure headline: the LME’s position-limit rule changes

Not every Dec. 15 copper headline is about price prints. One is about how the world’s main base-metals marketplace plans to police positions in the future.

Reuters reported the London Metal Exchange outlined plans for new position‑limit rules from July 2026, as responsibility shifts from the UK Financial Conduct Authority to trading venues. The LME said the changes are intended to make limits more responsive to market dynamics and give the exchange a more holistic view of exposure.  ^[19]

This matters for copper because, in extreme squeezes or dislocations, position rules can influence how quickly an imbalance can build—and how it is managed.

Supply chain moves in the background: a major U.S. smelter plan

Beyond trading and inventories, governments and companies are trying to “re‑plumb” critical-minerals supply chains—and copper is a core part of that effort.

Reuters reported on Dec. 15 that Korea Zinc plans a $7.4 billion smelter investment in the United States, intended to produce non‑ferrous metals including copper (with commercial operations rolling out gradually from 2027 to 2029).  ^[20]

This isn’t a 2025 supply fix, but it’s part of the longer arc the copper market is pricing: new capacity is expensive, slow, and increasingly strategic.

What the derivatives tape is saying: volumes and open interest

For traders watching whether the move is “real” or just thin year-end flows, market activity is also getting attention.

The Associated Press reported that as of 10:00 AM (Dec. 15), estimated COMEX copper futures volume was 30,578 contracts, with open interest at 258,743, down modestly from prior levels.  ^[21]

That snapshot supports the broader narrative of a market actively repositioning after Friday’s whipsaw.

The big question for copper into 2026: is this a supply squeeze, a tariff trade, or a demand boom?

Right now, copper is being driven by a three-way tension:

1. Physical tightness signals (like LME stocks marked for delivery and elevated price levels)  ^[22]
2. Policy and tariff uncertainty that can re-route global inventory flows and create regional pricing premiums  ^[23]
3. Demand confidence, especially in China, where weak property data remains a recurring headwind even as industrial and strategic demand themes (grids, electrification, data infrastructure) stay supportive  ^[24]

That’s why today’s copper price action can look “inconsistent” at first glance: copper can rise on dollar weakness and positioning even while traders cite soft China numbers—because inventory dynamics and policy probabilities can dominate the daily tape.

Bottom line: copper remains near record levels, but volatility is the base case

Copper’s latest mid‑afternoon read shows the market still priced near the high end of the past year, with COMEX near $5.42/lb and LME copper near $11,700/mt in widely followed benchmarks.  ^[25]

But Dec. 15’s news flow makes one point clear: the next leg—up or down—may be decided less by a single macro print and more by how inventories move, how wide U.S.–ex‑U.S. pricing gaps stay, and what the market concludes about tariff timelines.  ^[26]

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.metal.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.tradingview.com, 13. www.tradingview.com, 14. www.tradingview.com, 15. www.tradingview.com, 16. www.aastocks.com, 17. www.aastocks.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. apnews.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.tradingview.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.tradingview.com

NEW YORK — Monday, December 15, 2025 (3:30 p.m. EST) — Crude oil is trading lower in late-afternoon dealings as the market weighs fresh geopolitical supply risks—especially escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions and operational disruption fears—against an increasingly dominant narrative for 2026: a potential global oil surplus large enough to keep prices capped even when headlines turn more bullish.

As of the mid‑afternoon window around 3:09–3:24 p.m. ET, WTI crude futures were changing hands near $56.5 a barrel and Brent crude futures near $60.5 a barrel, both down a little over 1% on the session.  ^[1]

Oil price now: the latest WTI and Brent levels (late afternoon, Dec 15)

Here are the key benchmark levels traders are watching into the U.S. close:

• WTI crude (front month): about $56.52/bbl, down roughly 1.26%, with an intraday range around $56.25–$57.62.  ^[2]
• Brent crude (front month): about $60.45/bbl, down roughly 1.10%, with an intraday range around $60.13–$61.50.  ^[3]

A separate price board tracking futures with an 11‑minute delay showed similarly soft levels—WTI near $56.69 and Brent near $60.43—reinforcing the day’s risk‑off tone.  ^[4]

What’s driving oil prices today?

The simplest way to understand today’s crude action: headline risk is tugging prices up, but “surplus math” is pushing prices down. And right now, surplus expectations are winning.

By midday, Reuters reported Brent and WTI down more than 1% as investors balanced the Venezuelan disruption story with oversupply concerns, plus the possibility that a Russia‑Ukraine deal could eventually loosen constraints on Russian barrels.  ^[5]

Below are the main forces shaping the oil price now.

Venezuela: sanctions, tanker seizures, and a cyberattack collide with oil flows

Venezuela has become a focal point for crude traders because its exports are being squeezed at the same moment the market is debating whether the world is headed into a major surplus.

1) Washington’s tougher stance on Venezuelan oil

Reuters reporting describes an intensified U.S. campaign aimed at Venezuela’s oil trade, including a tanker seizure and threats of additional maritime interdictions—measures intended to disrupt the “shadow” logistics network that has supported exports.  ^[6]

In one of the most closely watched data points for the oil market, Reuters analysis said Venezuela’s crude exports have already fallen sharply—down from above 1 million bpd in September to a projected ~702,000 bpd in December.  ^[7]

2) PDVSA cyberattack adds near-term operational uncertainty

Adding to the risk premium, Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA reported a cyberattack. While the company publicly said operations were unaffected, sources told Reuters that internal systems were down and cargo deliveries were disrupted.  ^[8]

Why it matters for oil price now: even modest delays can tighten regional prompt supply and widen local differentials—especially for heavy sour grades—yet the global price impact depends on whether replacement barrels are readily available.

3) Why this may not cause a global oil crunch

The same Reuters analysis argues that even with Venezuela under pressure, the world market is unlikely to face a genuine supply crunch because overall supply is ample and other producers can offset losses—while Chevron continues producing under a U.S. license.  ^[9]

China’s buffer: record arrivals and rising floating storage limit the shock

One reason today’s market reaction has been contained is that China—Venezuela’s biggest buyer—appears buffered in the near term.

Reuters reported that China is drawing support from ample inventories, softer demand, and prior shipments, with Merey crude arrivals projected above 600,000 bpd in December and a significant rise in “oil on water” (floating storage) volumes in Asia.  ^[10]

That matters because when the world’s top importer has inventory breathing room, it takes more than a disruption headline to ignite a sustained rally in Brent and WTI.

Russia-Ukraine peace talks: a potential supply release valve (if sanctions ease)

Geopolitics is also cutting the other way: markets are watching whether diplomacy could eventually mean more barrels, not fewer.

Reuters reported that developments in U.S.-linked peace talks, including Ukraine signaling flexibility on NATO aspirations, fed the view that a deal could eventually increase Russian supply if sanctions were eased—adding to the bearish supply outlook.  ^[11]

At the same time, Europe is tightening pressure on sanction‑evasion networks.

EU “shadow fleet” sanctions: more friction in the oil system, higher shipping costs

On Monday, the EU announced sanctions targeting companies and individuals accused of helping move Russian oil through a shadow fleet, part of a broader effort to disrupt sanction circumvention.  ^[12]

Why this matters for crude prices (even in an oversupplied world):

• Sanctions can reduce the pool of compliant vessels and raise the cost/complexity of moving marginal barrels.
• That can widen regional spreads and keep certain routes tighter—even if global crude is plentiful.

Reuters separately reported that tanker markets are expected to remain tight into early 2026, with VLCC rates recently climbing to around $130,000 per day, and analysts pointing to sanctions and an aging fleet as key constraints.  ^[13]

Russia’s fuel-export limits: refined-product policy with crude implications

Another headline adding texture to today’s oil complex: Russia is considering extending restrictions on diesel and gasoline exports until February, according to state media cited by Reuters.  ^[14]

While this is primarily a refined‑product story, it can matter for crude balances indirectly by influencing refinery runs, product inventories, and regional crack spreads—especially heading deeper into winter.

The biggest force on oil prices: the 2026 oversupply debate

Even with Venezuela and Russia in the headlines, the market’s center of gravity is shifting toward 2026 balances—and forecasters disagree on the size of the surplus.

IEA: surplus remains large, even after a trim

The International Energy Agency said it upgraded demand growth expectations, but still sees supply rising faster than demand next year—pointing to a sizable surplus and ongoing “parallel markets” dynamics (ample crude vs tighter products).  ^[15]

Key IEA figures in the latest outlook:

• 2026 demand growth: about 860,000 bpd  ^[16]
• 2026 supply growth: about 2.4 million bpd  ^[17]

The IEA also described a notable build in observed inventories and highlighted that benchmark prices have been pinned near multi‑year lows despite sanctions tightening—an important context for why rallies keep fading.  ^[18]

OPEC: “no glut” and a closer 2026 balance

OPEC’s monthly reporting presents a more constructive view, with Reuters noting OPEC data indicating a closer supply‑demand balance in 2026 and that OPEC kept its demand growth forecasts unchanged, contrasting with IEA surplus implications.  ^[19]

EIA: inventories building and prices pressured into 2026

The U.S. EIA’s Short‑Term Energy Outlook commentary is notably bearish on near‑term price pressure, forecasting that:

• Brent averages around $55/bbl in 1Q26 and stays near that level through 2026  ^[20]
• Global oil inventory builds exceed 2 million bpd in 2026  ^[21]
• WTI averages about $51/bbl in 2026 (with WTI around $65/bbl in 2025 in the same EIA analysis line)  ^[22]

This EIA framing—strong production growth outpacing seasonal demand, with storage economics becoming a bigger constraint—is a major reason the market remains quick to sell rallies.

Why oil is down even with geopolitics: the “rally ceiling” problem

Oil’s pattern today fits a broader theme described by multiple analysts: geopolitical risks may slow the fall, but they haven’t been strong enough to reverse it because forward balances still look heavy.

Reuters quoted market participants pointing to weaker risk sentiment and weaker China data as additional pressure, while noting the market’s focus on the potential for a surplus widening into 2026 and beyond.  ^[23]

A separate technical read from FXEmpire published Monday argues that—unless key resistance levels are reclaimed—WTI is vulnerable toward the $55 area, while Brent is pulling toward the $60 psychological zone, with sellers likely to fade short‑term rallies in a broader downtrend.  ^[24]

One notable contrarian framing: “phenomenal price equilibrium”

Not all commentary today is purely bearish. An Investing.com analysis by Phil Flynn argues that the oil market has shown unusual price stability relative to other commodities, suggesting U.S. output dynamics and OPEC policy have helped produce a tighter trading range than many expected—and that crude looks “cheap” relative to metals on certain ratios.  ^[25]

For readers following oil price now, the takeaway isn’t that oil must rally—but that some analysts see the market as structurally anchored unless a true supply shock materializes.

What to watch next: the catalysts that could move oil prices this week

With Brent around $60 and WTI in the mid‑$50s, the market’s next move likely depends on whether supply disruptions become measurable (not just rhetorical) and whether the 2026 surplus narrative intensifies.

Key things traders will track from here:

1. Venezuela export flows and enforcement actions
   If additional interdictions or operational disruptions show up in shipping data, the market could reprice near‑term tightness—even if the longer‑term outlook stays bearish.  ^[26]
2. Russia-Ukraine diplomacy and sanctions enforcement
   Progress toward a deal could be bearish (more supply potential), while tighter enforcement and fresh shadow‑fleet sanctions can be bullish for freight and prompt differentials.  ^[27]
3. Inventory and storage signals
   EIA and IEA both emphasize inventories as the key pressure point. If storage builds accelerate or floating storage rises, downside pressure tends to increase.  ^[28]
4. China demand data and teapot refinery behavior
   China’s buffer is substantial for now, but shifts in independent refinery appetite or quotas can change marginal demand quickly.  ^[29]

Bottom line: Oil price now is soft, and forecasts still point lower into 2026

At 3:30 p.m. EST on December 15, 2025, oil prices are lower on the day, with WTI near $56.5 and Brent around $60.5.  ^[30] The market is absorbing serious geopolitical headlines—Venezuela, Russia, sanctions, cyber risk—but the broader pricing mechanism is still being driven by expectations that global supply growth will outpace demand in 2026, keeping rallies contained unless disruptions expand materially.  ^[31]

References

1. www.investing.com, 2. www.investing.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. oilprice.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.iea.org, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.eia.gov, 21. www.eia.gov, 22. www.eia.gov, 23. www.reuters.com, 24. www.fxempire.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.reuters.com, 27. www.reuters.com, 28. www.eia.gov, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.investing.com, 31. www.reuters.com

U.S. natural gas is trading with a familiar winter tug-of-war: colder-season risk vs. suddenly warmer model runs—and, today, the warm side is winning.

As of about 3:30 p.m. ET on Monday, December 15, 2025, NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures (January 2026) were near $4.02 per MMBtu, down roughly 2% on the day after an early selloff extended into the afternoon.  ^[1]

That price level matters because it sits right at the psychological “$4 handle” that often becomes a battleground during winter—especially after the market just went through an early-December spike above $5 before reversing sharply.

Natural gas price now: futures, day range, and what the curve is signaling

The latest session has been defined by a steady fade:

• January 2026 (front month): ~$4.02/MMBtu, -2% on the day, with a day’s range roughly $4.00 to $4.22.  ^[2]
• February 2026: ~$3.76/MMBtu (mid-$3s).  ^[3]
• March 2026: ~$3.34/MMBtu (low-$3s).  ^[4]

In plain terms, the forward curve is projecting that winter tightness may be front-loaded—and that pricing pressure could ease as the market moves toward late winter and early spring, assuming production stays strong and weather normalizes.  ^[5]

Why natural gas is down today: warmer late-December forecasts meet near-record supply

Multiple same-day market updates converged on the same theme: the near-term demand outlook cooled faster than the weather.

Reuters reported Monday that U.S. natural gas futures were holding near a six-week low on milder weather forecasts for the next two weeks, near-record Lower 48 output, ample storage, and weaker global gas prices. In the morning, Reuters pegged the front-month contract around $4.095/MMBtu, already pointing to the market’s soft tone.  ^[6]

Key fundamental drivers highlighted in that report:

• Production remains extremely high: Lower 48 output averaged about 109.7 Bcf/d so far in December, just above November’s record pace, even with daily flows easing off late-November peaks.  ^[7]
• Forecasts lean warm through month-end: Meteorologists cited in the Reuters report expected temperatures to stay mostly warmer than normal through December 30, limiting heating demand.  ^[8]
• Demand is expected to fall week-over-week: LSEG projected total Lower 48 demand (including exports) could slip from about 145.2 Bcf/d this week to about 131.6 Bcf/d next week.  ^[9]

A related data table in the same Reuters package also indicated below-normal heating degree days versus historical norms in the two-week window—another statistical way of saying the market sees less heating-driven demand than typical for mid-December.  ^[10]

Storage and the next big catalyst: the upcoming EIA storage print

Storage is acting like a shock absorber right now—helping prevent a panic move higher when cold shows up, and cushioning the downside when forecasts flip warmer.

Reuters data tables show U.S. working gas in storage around 3,593 Bcf, roughly 1.3% above the five-year average.  ^[11]

The next pivotal datapoint is the next EIA storage report (for the week ended Dec. 12). Market expectations referenced in the Reuters tables point to a withdrawal around 153 Bcf—still a sizable draw, but the futures market is weighing that against strong supply and a milder late-December outlook.  ^[12]

LNG exports are still strong—but global gas prices are not helping the bulls

One reason natural gas didn’t simply collapse earlier this winter was the relentless pull from LNG exports. That remains a major support pillar—but it’s not a one-way ticket higher, especially when overseas benchmarks are soft.

Reuters reported that feedgas deliveries to the eight large U.S. LNG export plants averaged about 18.6 Bcf/d so far in December, above November’s record pace.  ^[13]

However, the same Reuters reporting also noted that international benchmark prices have been hovering near multi-month lows—around $9/MMBtu at Europe’s TTF and roughly $11/MMBtu in Asia (JKM)—a backdrop that can cap the upside enthusiasm for U.S. gas, even when export volumes are high.  ^[14]

There’s also a geopolitical overlay: Reuters pointed to market hopes that Ukraine-related peace talks could ultimately affect sanctions and future Russian supply, which, even as a “maybe,” tends to cool longer-dated risk premiums in global gas pricing.  ^[15]

Europe’s gas market today: TTF steadies as wind slows, but fundamentals stay “comfortable”

European prices were not signaling a major crisis on Dec. 15—more like a cautious winter grind higher that’s being actively resisted by supply.

Reuters reported that the Dutch TTF front-month traded around €27.46/MWh (about $9.45/MMBtu) in a narrow range Monday morning after two sessions of gains. Cooler temperatures boosted heating demand, and lower wind speedsincreased gas-fired power needs, but steady LNG and Norwegian supply limited the rally.  ^[16]

A key datapoint for sentiment: EU storage was reported around 69.61% full, below last year’s level at the same time, but still not low enough to force a broad panic bid in prices.  ^[17]

U.S. regulatory friction: EU methane rules and what they could mean for LNG trade flows

A major December 15 policy headline for gas markets came out of Brussels.

Reuters reported that the U.S. has asked the EU to exempt U.S. oil and gas from obligations under the bloc’s methane emissions regulation until 2035, framing the regulation as a trade barrier and seeking a long delay in emissions-data reporting requirements. The EU’s rule requires importers to monitor and report methane associated with imported fuels.  ^[18]

For market participants, this is less about today’s tick-by-tick move and more about longer-term cost, compliance, and documentation requirements that can influence contracting, certification, and the competitiveness of LNG cargoes into Europe over time.

Market structure is evolving too: ICE flags record TTF trading and longer hours

Another December 15 development underscores how “global” natural gas has become.

Reuters reported that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) posted record 2025 volumes for benchmark European gas contracts—103 million contracts across TTF futures/options—and said it plans to extend trading hours (from a 10-hour European window toward longer cycles that resemble U.S. and Asian markets).  ^[19]

For traders, longer hours can mean faster price discovery when weather, outages, or LNG headlines hit outside the traditional European trading day—something that increasingly matters in an LNG-linked world.

Forecasts and outlook: what analysts are watching after the $5-to-$4 whiplash

Today’s action is part of a broader theme: extreme sensitivity to weather model runs—and the market’s growing reliance on incremental demand from LNG and power.

1) Household heating costs are moving up in official forecasts

In a December 15 “Today in Energy” note, the U.S. EIA said it has raised residential winter heating expenditure forecasts versus mid-October expectations because it now expects a colder winter and higher retail price forecasts, especially for natural gas and propane. The agency also cited NOAA expectations that December will be about 8% colder than the average of the previous 10 Decembers.  ^[20]

EIA also noted that the Henry Hub spot price was near $3/MMBtu in October and rose to more than $4/MMBtu by late November, which helps explain why consumer-facing forecasts shifted upward even before winter fully arrived.  ^[21]

2) Technical levels traders are focusing on this week

A December 15 technical note carried by Interactive Brokers/Investopedia described the prompt-month January contract as having turned bearish after last week’s sharp drop, highlighting potential downside levels around the high-$3s and resistance in the mid-$4s.  ^[22]

Whether you follow technicals or not, the takeaway is consistent with the fundamentals: weather and storage surprises are the catalysts most likely to force a break away from the $4 area.

What to watch next for natural gas prices this week

If you’re tracking natural gas price action into mid-December, these are the catalysts most likely to move the market quickly:

• Weather model updates (especially any shift back toward sustained cold after Dec. 20).  ^[23]
• The next EIA storage report and whether the withdrawal aligns with expectations around ~153 Bcf for the week ended Dec. 12.  ^[24]
• LNG feedgas volumes—whether flows stay near the 18+ Bcf/d pace reported so far this month.  ^[25]
• Europe’s TTF direction and storage trajectory as wind output and temperatures shift week to week.  ^[26]
• Policy headlines around methane reporting rules and compliance timelines that could influence future LNG trade friction.  ^[27]

Bottom line

Natural gas prices today are being pinned near $4.02/MMBtu by a warm-forecast narrative and relentless U.S. supply—despite very strong LNG export pull. The market’s next decisive move likely depends on whether late-December weather turns materially colder again, and whether storage withdrawals begin to outpace expectations.  ^[28]

References

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Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its 2026 copper price forecast to $11,400 per metric ton from $10,650, citing reduced odds of a refined copper tariff being implemented in the first half of 2026 as affordability concerns take priority.

Benchmark three-month copper HG1! on the London Metal Exchange was up 1.4% to $11,670 per metric ton by 1838 GMT.

Copper hit a record high of $11,952 on Friday on worries about tight supply, but then experienced a selloff amid renewed fears that the artificial intelligence sector was in a bubble that was ready to burst.

Daily inflows to the Comex copper stocks (HG-STX-COMEX), already at a record high, continued due to higher prices on Comex. The U.S. excluded refined copper from the 50% import tariffs that came into force in August but kept the matter under review.

Goldman Sachs said there is a 55% chance that the Trump administration will announce a 15% tariff on copper imports in the first half of 2026, with implementation slated for 2027 and a possible increase to 30% in 2028.

The investment bank said the prospect of future tariffs is likely to keep U.S. copper prices trading at a premium to the London Metal Exchange benchmark and drive stockpiling, which would tighten supply in markets outside the U.S., which is now a key driver of global copper prices.

“We have kept our 2027 price forecast of $10,750 unchanged, as we expect the LME price to retreat once a tariff is in place and the ex-U.S. market rebalances,” Goldman Sachs added.

It also lifted its forecast for the 2026 global market surplus to 300,000 tons from 160,000 tons.