• Silver trades with negative bias for the second straight day, though lacks follow-through selling.
• A fall below the 50-day SMA validates an ascending channel breakdown and favors bearish traders.
• Any meaningful recovery attempt might now be seen as a selling opportunity and remain limited.

Silver (XAG/USD) remains on the back foot through the first half of the European session on Thursday, albeit manages to hold above the $31.00 mark. The technical setup, however, seems tilted in favor of bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the white metal remains to the downside. 

The overnight downfall and a subsequent weakness below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) confirmed a short-term ascending trend-channel breakdown. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and add credence to the near-term negative outlook for the XAG/USD. Any further decline, however, is likely to find decent support near the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the $30.40-$30.35 region.

Some follow-through selling could drag the XAG/USD below the $30.00 psychological mark, toward testing the next relevant support near the $29.70 zone. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the $29.00 round figure en route to the very important 200-day SMA, currently pegged near the $28.50-$28.40 region.

On the flip side, the 50-day SMA support breakpoint, around the $31.35 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle. A sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally towards the $31.75 intermediate resistance, the $32.00 round figure and the $32.25-$32.30 supply zone. Any further move up is more likely to attract fresh sellers and remain capped near the ascending channel support breakpoint, around the $32.75 region.

Silver daily chart

Bearish Momentum Accelerates

Given the accelerated downward momentum seen today, it looks like gold is heading for a retest of support around the 50-Day MA at 2,638, if not lower. The next lower pivot is at the bottom of the bull flag at 2,600. That low is also a higher swing low and therefore part of the price structure of the rising near-term trend. If it fails to hold as support and gold falls lower, a violation of the trend structure will occur thereby providing another bearish sign.

Targeting 50-Day Moving Average at 2,638

Nonetheless, the higher 50-Day MA has a good chance of seeing support. The 50-Day line was reclaimed in early-July after natural gas traded below the line for about 17 days. After the subsequent rally a pullback successfully tested support around the 50-Day line with a couple minor swing lows. Following the August 5 test of the 50-Day line, the bull trend accelerated, and the faster 20-Day MA began to identify support for the rising trend.

Trend Channel Failed Breakout

Let’s also consider the rising parallel trend channel with the lower line beginning from the mid-February swing low. A parallel of the trendline was then connected to where multiple highs and lows hit the line, as shown on the chart with red and green arrows. Subsequently, the market recognized resistance around the top channel line around the September high and then again with the most recent record high of 2,790.

The rally into new highs indicated a potential bullish breakout of the channel. Of course, given today’s bearish price action, a failed breakout has happened instead. Now that a bullish breakout has failed and key 20-Day MA trend support is broken, there is always the potential that gold falls to the lower uptrend line of the channel. When it is reached, if it is, will determine whether the 2,600-swing low is tested.

Weekly Bearish Pattern Triggered Today

As mentioned again yesterday, the weekly candlestick pattern (not shown) for last week was bearish. Gold ended with a doji shooting star formation that triggered below last week’s low of 2,725. The breakdown triggered today, and the subsequent bearish performance is what might be expected from such a weekly pattern.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

• Silver remains under some selling pressure on Thursday and hangs near a three-week low.
• The recent breakdown below key technical levels supports prospects for additional losses.
• Any attempted recovery might now be seen as a selling opportunity and remain capped.

Silver (XAG/USD) trades with negative bias for the second straight day on Thursday and languishes near the $31.00 mark, just above its lowest level since mid-October touched the previous day. 

From a technical perspective, the overnight decline confirmed a short-term ascending trend-channel breakdown. A subsequent slide below the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) was seen as a fresh trigger for bearish traders. Furthermore, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining negative traction and suggest that the path of least resistance for the XAG/USD remains to the downside. 

Hence, some follow-through weakness towards testing the 100-day SMA support, currently pegged near the $30.40-$30.35 area, looks like a distinct possibility. The downfall could eventually drag the XAG/USD below the $30.00 psychological mark, toward the next relevant support near the $29.70 zone en route to the $29.00 round figure and the key 200-day SMA, around the $28.55 region.

On the flip side, the 50-day SMA breakpoint, near the $31.40 area, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle, above which a bout of a short-covering move could allow the XAG/USD to reclaim the $32.00 mark. Any further move up, however, might be seen as a selling opportunity and runs the risk of fizzling out rather quickly near the ascending channel support breakpoint, around the $32.65 region.

The latter should act as a key pivotal point, which if cleared decisively will suggest that the recent corrective slide from the vicinity of the $35.00 psychological mark, or a 12-year high touched in October is over. This, in turn, might shift the near-term bias in favor of bullish traders and lift the XAG/USD beyond the $33.00 round figure, towards the $33.60-$33.70 static resistance zone.

Silver daily chart

• Gold price attempts a tepid bounce from three-week lows of $2,644 early Thursday.
• The US Dollar consolidates the Trump trades-led rally on the Republican candidate’s presidency.      
• The daily technical setup for Gold price suggests that the tide has turned in favor of sellers.

Gold price is seeing a dead cat bounce from three-week lows of $2,644 in Asian trading on Thursday, as the dust settles in the aftermath of a massive sell-off, fuelled by Republican candidate Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential race.

Gold price stays defensive, awaiting the Fed verdict

The US Dollar (USD) has entered a bullish consolidation phase after rallying to its highest level in four months against its major rivals, capitalizing on the return of Trump trades. Trump’s policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs are expected to put upward pressure on inflation, Wall Street stocls, US Treasury bond yields and the USD.

These expectations from the Trump administration and their likely implications on the economy spelt doom for the non-yielding Gold price, smashing it about $100 from the static resistance of $2,750.

Attention now turns toward the US Federal Reserve (Fed) policy announcements due later this Thursday. Markets are fully pricing in a 25 basis points (bps) Fed rate cut this week but investors will closely scrutinize any hints on the central bank’s path forward on interest rates.

Donald Trump’s return to the White House could prompt the Fed to slow down on its easy cycle, as his expansionary fiscal policies are seen as highly inflationary.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to affirm the US central bank’s independence and that they will act as the economic and inflation outlook unfolds. Powell is likely to acknowledge the recent slack in the labor market and the progress on disinflation, reiterating that the Fed will remain ‘data-dependent’ while determining the next policy move.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

As observed on the daily chart, Gold price cracked all the major Fibonacci Retracement (Fibo) support levels amid the Trump trades-induced sell-off on Wednesday.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) also pierced through the midline to dive into bearish territory, currently trending near 43.

The leading indicator suggests that more downside remains in the offing. However, a temporary pullback following the previous slump cannot be ruled out.

A dovish message by the Fed could rescue Gold buyers so long as they defend the critical support at $2,641, which is the confluence of the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 78.6% Fibo level of the latest record rally from the October 10 low of $2,604 to the new all-time high of $2,790.

Gold buyers will then aim for acceptance above the 61.8% Fibo support-turned-resistance at $2,673. Further up, a strong topside barrier near $2,700 will be tested, where the 50% Fibo of the same ascent level aligns.  

If the Fed signals a slower pace of easing in the coming months, Gold price could see a sustained break below the abovementioned healthy support at $2,641.

A fresh downtrend will unleash toward the October 10 low of $2,604, below which the $2,550 psychological level will challenge the bullish commitments.

Experts predict that coffee prices on November 7, 11 will likely continue to fluctuate within a narrow range due to pressure from supply and fluctuations in the international market.

The recovery of Robusta coffee prices on the London floor has partly supported domestic coffee prices, helping to prevent a sharp decline. However, the abundant coffee supply in Vietnam during the main harvest season still puts considerable pressure on coffee prices.

Vietnam’s robusta coffee harvest could help ease price pressure, but the smaller output may not be enough to restore global coffee supplies in the long term. worldVietnam’s coffee output this year (including Arabica and Robusta) is expected to reach around 26-27 million bags, lower than the US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) estimate of 5 million bags in May, as the impact of drought has yet to be fully assessed.

Recorded in the trading session on November 6, 11, today’s coffee price increased by 2024 – 400 VND/kg, ranging from 500 – 105.900 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 106.400 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in the province Dak Nong, Dak Lak, Gia Lai, Kon Tum 106.400 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 106.400 VND, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 106.300 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 106.400 VND/kg, an increase of 500 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 106.400 VND/kg, an increase of 400 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in the province Lam Dong In districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee was purchased at 105.900 VND/kg, an increase of 400 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Domestic coffee prices (November 6) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee was purchased at about 11 VND/kg, an increase of 106.400 VND/kg compared to yesterday, and in Ea H’leo district, Buon Ho town, coffee was purchased at the same price of 400 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 p.m. on September 6, 11, Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for September 2024 delivery on the London exchange was at 1 USD/ton, down 2025 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee prices today, July 6, 11: Robusta coffee prices on the London floor. (Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com

Delivery term in November 3 is 2025 USD/ton, down 4.205 USD; Delivery term in January 98 is 5 USD/ton, down 2025 USD and delivery term in March 4.146 is 98 USD/ton, down 5 USD.

Arabica coffee prices on the New York floor on October 6, 11. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

Of which, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor at 20:00 on November 6, 11 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 2024 – 241.20 cents/lb.

Specifically, the December 12 delivery period is 2024 cents/lb; down 245.20 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The March 4.95 delivery period is 3 cents/lb, down 2025 cents/lb; the May 244.60 delivery period is 4.80 cents/lb, down 5 cents/lb and the July 2025 delivery period is 243.30 cents/lb, down 1.95 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 6, 11. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

The price of Brazilian Arabica coffee today at 21:00 p.m. on November 6, 11 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the delivery period for December 2024 is 12 USD/ton, down 2024%; the delivery period for March 300.00 is 1.40 USD/ton, down 3%; the delivery period for May 2025 is 299.50 USD/ton, up 1.40% and the delivery period for July 5 is 2025 USD/ton, up 304.05%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

Research Agency Agriculture Rains in key coffee-producing regions in October facilitated flowering, raising producers’ expectations for the 10-2025 crop, Brazil (CEPEA) said. However, concerns about crop development remain uncertain, given that coffee plants have been hit by high temperatures and a lack of rain for nearly six months in some areas.

The 2023-2024 crop failure, high prices and low yields have led to a high rate of sales this year, leaving inventories tight, raising concerns about coffee supplies until Brazil’s next crop.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

• Silver breaks below key support levels, including 50-day SMA at $31.27.
• Daily close below $31.00 may lead to further decline toward 100-day SMA at $30.23.
• Resistance levels to watch: July 11 high at $31.75 and May 20 peak at $32.51.

Silver price slumped sharply on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election. Additionally, the Republican party sweep seems likely as they hold the majority in the Senate, while the House of Representatives is still early to be called. The XAGU/USD trades at $31.16, down over 4.50%.

XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlook

Silver’s price uptrend remains in play, even though Trump’s victory boosted the Greenback. Consequently, the XAG/USD tumbled below key support levels, including the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $31.27, which opened the door to hit a daily low of $30.84.

If XAG/USD achieves a daily close below $31.00, it could trigger a potential slump to the 100-day SMA at $30.23. If surpassed, the next stop would be the $30.00 figure.

On the upside, the next key resistance would be the July 11 high at $31.75. A breach of the latter will expose $32.00, followed by May’s 20 peak at $32.51.

XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily