Bearish Continuation Below 2.63

A decisive decline below today’s low will trigger a continuation of the bearish retracement. Subsequently, there are two primary potential support zones to watch. The first is from 2.58 to 2.54, and the second starts at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 2.48 and goes down to the orange 50-Day MA at 2.46. The first price zone starts with a prior interim swing high, includes the 50% retracement at 2.56, and completes with the purple 20-Day MA.

Another Test of Support at 50-Day MA May Occur

A recent test of support at the 50-Day line failed, and the price of natural gas fell below the line before rebounding back above it. Therefore, the current decline has the potential to successfully test support around the 50-Day MA and lead to a bullish reversal. One reason for this is indicated on the weekly chart (not shown), as a bullish reversal triggered this week.

Although the moving averages help provide some guide to price action, natural gas continues to trade inside consolidation that takes the form of a large symmetrical triangle pattern. Therefore, indications from the moving averages are generally not as reliable or significant as seen in a trending environment. Nonetheless, keeping that in mind they can still provide useful information as they have done recently with support at the 200-Day MA and the 50-Day crossing above the 200-Day.

Internal Uptrend to Provide Insights

Behavior around the internal uptrend line that connects the most recent swing low may also provide some insight. If it fails to hold as support, the 200-Day MA becomes a target, which is now at 2.23. Subsequently, if the 200-Day MA fails, the trendline becomes a target. If the trendline is broken to the downside, the potential bullish outlook diminishes.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Mild Weather Cuts Heating Demand

Forecasts from both American and European models show warmer temperatures are likely to persist across the U.S., limiting heating degree days (HDDs) and reducing natural gas demand. NatGasWeather reported that the American model adjusted its forecast by 11 HDDs lower, which decreases the immediate need for heating-related gas. This shift points to mild conditions across much of the country, particularly in the eastern and southern regions, where temperatures are expected to hover between the 60s and 80s Fahrenheit, with isolated areas even reaching the 90s.

In contrast, cooler temperatures in parts of the western and central U.S. will bring highs in the 40s to 60s Fahrenheit, though this will not significantly offset the mild conditions prevailing elsewhere. The overall demand profile remains light, as warmer weather patterns weaken market sentiment for natural gas futures in the near term.

High Storage Levels Add Bearish Pressure

Natural gas storage remains robust, further pressuring prices. As of October 25, 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported working gas in storage at 3,863 billion cubic feet (Bcf), an increase of 78 Bcf from the previous week. These levels are 107 Bcf higher than the same time last year and 178 Bcf above the five-year average. This storage surplus suggests that natural gas supplies are more than adequate to meet current and expected demand, which is particularly light due to the mild weather outlook.

Amid steady production levels, especially with wind energy contributing to electricity generation, natural gas demand for power remains subdued. This excess in supply, combined with steady injections into storage, limits the potential for a bullish reversal in the short term.

Technical Analysis Indicates Potential Further Declines

Experts predict that the price of coffee on October 30, 2024 in the domestic market will rebound due to the influence of weather and the influence of the international market.

World coffee prices increased due to concerns that the circulation after the storm could cause heavy rain in the key coffee growing region of the Central Highlands of Vietnam, slowing down the progress of the new crop harvest. Storm Tra Mi (storm No. 6) made landfall, causing heavy rain from Ha Tinh to Binh Dinh and the northern Central Highlands of Vietnam, slowing the supply of the current harvest to the market, as the storm dissipated quickly but brought rain with the tropical depression afterwards. Meanwhile, another storm is forming from the East of the Philippines, named Kong-rey. The storm is moving southward as it gets closer to the end of the year.

October 30, 2024 Coffee Price Forecast: Tends to increase strongly again due to weather concerns

Coffee prices also rose on news after Brazil’s Somar Meteorologia reported that Brazil’s largest arabica coffee growing region, Minas Gerais, received just 25,1 mm of rain last week, or 74% of the historical average.

Assessing the coffee market in the coming time, experts said that there were too many difficulties right from the beginning of the new crop year, perhaps these difficulties will last until early 2025, when international traders sell all the goods they had hastily purchased before.

At that time, coffee prices will be more stable, but the opportunity to increase prices to reach the previous peak is considered gone. In the current coffee market conditions, we need to do business based on quality, not quantity.

Recorded in the trading session on October 29, 2024, domestic coffee prices today decreased slightly by 800-900 VND/kg, ranging from 108.500-109.100 VND/kg. Currently, the average purchase price in the Central Highlands provinces is 108.700 VND/kg, the highest purchase price in Dak Nong province is 109.100 VND/kg.

Specifically, the coffee purchase price in Gia Lai province (Chu Prong) is 109.000 VND, down 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday, in Pleiku and La Grai the same price is 108.900 VND/kg; In Kon Tum province, the price is 109.000 VND/kg, down 800 VND/kg compared to yesterday; In Dak Nong province, coffee is purchased at the highest price of 109.100 VND/kg, down 900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

The price of green coffee beans (coffee beans, fresh coffee beans) in Lam Dong province in districts such as Bao Loc, Di Linh, Lam Ha, coffee is purchased at 108.500 VND/kg, a decrease of 900 VND/kg compared to yesterday.

Coffee price today (date 29/10) in Dak Lak province; in Cu M’gar district, coffee is purchased at around 109.000 VND/kg, down 800 VND/kg, while in Ea H’leo district and Buon Ho town, coffee is purchased at the same price 108.900 VND/kg.

Updated world coffee prices at 20:00 on October 29, 2024 Vietnam time on the London exchange, the price of Robusta coffee futures contract for monthly delivery November 2024 on the London exchange was at 4.457 USD/ton, down 45 USD compared to the beginning of the trading session.

Coffee price today October 29, 2024: Robusta coffee price on London floor. (Photo: Screenshot giacaphe.com

The monthly delivery term January 2025 is 4.367 USD/ton, down 43 USD; the monthly delivery term March 2025 is 4.296 USD/ton, down 41 USD and the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 4.206 USD/ton, down 51 USD.

Arabica coffee price on New York floor on October 29, 2024. (Photo: Screenshot of giacaphe.com)

In particular, the price of Arabica coffee on the New York floor today at 20:00 on October 29, 2024 decreased in all terms, fluctuating at 246.05 – 251.00 cents/lb.

Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 is 251.00 cents/lb; down 1.35 cents/lb compared to the beginning of the session. The monthly delivery term March 2025 is 250.05 cents/lb, down 1.30 cents/lb; the monthly delivery term May 2025 is 248.70 cents/lb, down 1.20 cents/lb and the monthly delivery term July 2025 is 246.05 cents/lb, down 0.47 cents/lb.

Brazilian Arabica coffee price on October 29, 2024.(Photo: Screenshot from giacaphe.com)

Brazilian Arabica coffee prices today at 21:00 p.m. October 29, 2024 increased and decreased in opposite directions. Specifically, the monthly delivery term December 2024 was 303.00 USD/ton, down 0.49%; the monthly delivery term March 2025 was 303.00 USD/ton, down 0.61%; the monthly delivery term May 2025 was 306.35 USD/ton, up 1.64% and the monthly delivery term July 2025 was 302.70 USD/ton, up 1.59%.

Robusta coffee traded on ICE Futures Europe (London floor) opens at 16:00 and closes at 00:30 (the next day), Vietnam time.

Arabica coffee on the ICE Futures US floor (New York floor) opens at 16:15 p.m. and closes at 01:30 a.m. (the next day), Vietnam time.

According to data from the General Department of Customs, Vietnam’s coffee exports in the first half of the month October 2024 reached 21,5 thousand tons, worth 125,8 million USD, up 0,4% in volume and 7,5% in value compared to the first half of September; and compared to the first half of the month October 2023 increased by 9% in volume and 20,5% in value. Accumulated from the beginning of the year to October 15, 2024, Vietnam’s coffee exports reached approximately 98,0 million tons, worth 1,13 billion USD, down 4,44% in volume, but up 11,1% in value compared to the same period in 39,1.

Currently, businesses in the Vietnamese coffee supply chain are facing many challenges. Rising prices stimulate farmers to pursue short-term benefits. Increasing supply shortages due to depleting domestic inventories.

Information for reference only. Prices may vary depending on locality.

A Reuters poll released Thursday paints a lackluster future for oil in 2025, with a cocktail of sluggish demand growth and supply glut concerns pulling prices down. Analysts now see Brent crude averaging $80.55 per barrel this year and $76.61 in 2025— a steady downgrade from earlier projections.

The pessimistic shift stems from a trio of factors. China’s lukewarm demand, despite its role as the world’s top oil consumer, casts a long shadow. Meanwhile, oil supplies from key producers are poised to swell, especially with OPEC+ eyeing an output hike in December. And the geopolitical storms that once rattled markets, particularly fears of escalations in the Middle East, have calmed. As Ole Hansen, Saxo Bank’s head of commodity strategy, noted, these flare-ups may stir oil prices, but the risk of real disruption is, well, limited.

U.S. crude also follows suit, with prices expected to hover at $76.73 a barrel this year and down to $72.73 in 2025. This downtrend marks the sixth straight month of reduced expectations for the year’s average prices.

Brent’s current crude price is $73.25, with WTI at $69.55 per barrel—up about 1% on the day, but down based on month-ago levels.

For 2025, the poll hints at a slight bump in global oil demand by roughly 1-1.5 million barrels per day, though it’s not exactly the cavalry. 2024 global demand is expected to be between 0.8 million and 1.2 million bpd, the poll showed.

Seasonal factors may prompt OPEC+ to delay their planned December increase until spring 2025, as Stratas Advisors’ president John Paisie told Reuters, saying “We think that OPEC+ could delay the increase in supply until end of March/beginning of April of 2025, given that demand will drop in Q1 2025 from Q4 2024 because of seasonal factors.”

When the geopolitical winds ease and China’s economy stalls, crude prices might just hit the snooze button for a while.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Potential Bearish Signals in Gold Futures

Gold’s recent price reversal could trigger a short-term correction, with a break below $2,731.63 likely confirming this bearish chart pattern. If the reversal plays out, we expect gold to test the $2,708.76–$2,697.28 support zone over the next few sessions. A decisive break below this range could accelerate selling toward the 50-day moving average of $2,624.71. Conversely, if prices push above the recent high of $2,790.17, this would negate the reversal, resuming the broader uptrend and supporting gold’s bullish momentum.

Gold Recovers on Profit-Taking and Election-Driven Demand

After profit-taking hit the market on Thursday, pushing gold 1.5% lower, prices rebounded as investors awaited economic insights from the U.S. jobs data. Despite the recent pullback, gold remains up 4% in October as uncertainty ahead of the Nov. 5 U.S. presidential election sustains demand for safe-haven assets.

Traders have kept a close watch on political and economic indicators, with the gold market responsive to any shifts in polling between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, as the race tightens. Additionally, Citi projects gold may reach $3,000 per ounce within six months, citing labor market concerns and sustained ETF inflows as key drivers.

Dollar, Treasury Yields Stable Before Jobs Data Release

The U.S. dollar held steady on Friday, supported by a series of economic data suggesting robust underlying economic conditions despite anticipated Fed rate cuts.

The October NFP report is expected to show an increase of roughly 100,000 jobs, a slowdown from September’s 254,000 figure. Analysts, however, caution that external factors, such as recent hurricanes, could weigh on the numbers.

Treasury yields were flat, with markets largely pricing in a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s November meeting. Dollar strength remains a central theme, supported by reduced expectations for aggressive rate cuts.

Next Lower Target is 2.65, Followed by 2.58

The next lower target is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 2.65. A decline below today’s low will signal a likely move to that price level. Nonetheless, a lower and what looks like a potentially more significant target zone is from 2.58 to 2.55. That range consists of a previous interim swing high and the 20-Day MA, respectively. Also, within that range is the 50% retracement level at 2.57. If that price zone is broken to the downside, then watch for support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.48, along with the 50-Day MA at 2.45.

Successful Test of 200-Day MA is Bullish

Recently, natural gas successfully tested the 200-Day MA as support. The 200-Day line was recaptured on September 11. Other than a quick test of support a week after the initial breakout, there has been no subsequent test of the 200-Day line as support. It can be considered as a maximum support level before the potential of natural gas in the foreseeable future starts to change. Staying above the 200-Day line during weakness would indicate strength overall given its long-term nature.

Higher Swing Lows Point to Underlying Strength

Moreover, notice how bullish momentum has been improving overall in recent months as represented by the higher swing lows and accompanying trendlines. If the higher internal trendline that connects the recent swing low fails as support, the potential for an eventual bullish breakout of the triangle diminishes or it may take longer to occur. The top triangle trendline is significant as it connects five swing highs. This means it may continue to offer strong resistance, or a bull breakout triggers with momentum spiking – a possibility.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Resistance Zone From 71.83 to 73.21

Next up, there is a potentially significant resistance zone a little higher, starting from 71.83 and rising to 73.21. The higher level is the 50% retracement, which should be watched in concert with the most recent interim swing high at 73.15. The price range starts with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. Also, included with the range is potential resistance around the 50-Day MA at 71.96, and the 20-Day MA at 72.27.

Nonetheless, the 73.15 swing high is the key pivot as a breakout above starts to reverse the price structure of the short-term downtrend. A bull breakout above 73.15 would provide a renewed sign of strength once there is a daily close above it. Further, the moving average trend indicators would have been exceeded by then.

Consolidation Pattern May Be Evolving

The large symmetrical triangle pattern in crude oil has been discussed before. A bearish breakdown triggered at the beginning of September, and it was followed by a bullish reversal that rose back into the pattern. Subsequently, another breakdown from the pattern triggered. Given that crude continues to chop around it is possible that the consolidation pattern has evolved into a larger triangle.

That may account for the lack of follow-through. Nevertheless, it is not clear yet. The initial lower boundary line of the triangle, that is now around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 74.60, may continue to provide insights if it is approached again. The question is, will it lead to a bearish reversal or a bullish breakout?

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.