– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Softens on UK Economic Concerns

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) pulled back from a one-month peak on Thursday as volatility picked up following the Federal Reserve’s final policy decision of 2025.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering around $1.3358, roughly 0.2% below the day’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) saw sharp, uneven swings on Thursday as markets attempted to digest the Fed’s December rate cut.

As widely expected, the central bank lowered its benchmark rate to 3.5–3.75%.

However, traders were taken aback by the voting distribution. Ahead of the decision, markets had anticipated as many as four dissents, reflecting deep division within the Federal Open Market Committee. Instead, just two members opposed the move, while another unexpectedly argued for a larger cut.

This dovish surprise sent the Dollar sharply lower in the immediate aftermath, amplifying speculation that the Fed may deliver additional easing through 2026.

The ‘Greenback’ later reclaimed some ground, though its recovery was uneven as investors continued to debate the likely pace of next year’s policy trajectory.

The Pound (GBP) struggled for support on Thursday as concerns around the UK’s economic resilience resurfaced.

Investors remain uneasy about signs of a weakening labour market and mounting pressure on household spending. A new Barclays report underscored these concerns, revealing the sharpest decline in consumer expenditure in five years.

Such developments have strengthened expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will need to adopt a more accommodative stance, with further rate cuts anticipated over the coming months.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Forecast: Underwhelming GDP to Weigh on Sterling?

Looking ahead, Friday’s UK GDP release will take centre stage for Pound traders.

Economists expect October’s monthly GDP to show a modest 0.1% rise — the first growth since June — but such a muted improvement is unlikely to shift the broader narrative of a sluggish UK economy.

A soft reading may reinforce expectations that the BoE will cut rates at its upcoming meeting, potentially placing renewed pressure on Sterling.

Meanwhile, with the US schedule light on major data, Dollar movement may be guided largely by broader risk appetite. A risk-on environment could leave the ‘Greenback’ on the defensive, while any deterioration in sentiment may help USD find renewed support.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Created on December 11, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Neutral with an upward bias.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1620 – 1.1570 – 1.1490
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1720 – 1.1800 – 1.1880.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1800 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1900.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

Currency prices moved positively against the US Dollar after the Federal Reserve cut the key US interest rate for the third consecutive time on Wednesday, though it signaled the possibility of keeping it unchanged in the coming months—a move that could anger President Donald Trump, who has demanded sharp reductions in borrowing costs. According to reliable trading platforms, the EUR/USD pair rebounded to the 1.1680 resistance level at the time of writing this analysis. These gains may push the EUR/USD trend out of the neutral zone that dominated trading recently while awaiting the Fed announcement.

The bullish scenario for EUR/USD requires more work to confirm the strength of the bulls’ control. On the daily chart, the psychological resistance of 1.1800 remains the key to a confirmed bullish shift. The pair’s recent gains pushed the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to the 61 level, which supports a technical correction upward, but it still has more room for stronger gains before reaching the overbought zone. The MACD indicator is also moving positively. The echoes of the Fed’s decisions, its policy statement, and updated projections will continue to influence EUR/USD trading in the coming days.

The scenario for a EUR/USD pullback over the same timeframe is linked to the bears bringing the currency prices back toward the vicinity of the psychological support of 1.1500 once again.

Trading Advice

Be cautious. The EUR/USD’s upward trend is still in its early stages. We await confirmation of this and recommend buying from the 1.1500 support level again, but never take unnecessary risks.

The Future of US Interest Rates in the New Year

Following the widely anticipated announcement of a US interest rate cut, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate-setting committee indicated in a statement released after a two-day meeting that it is likely to keep US interest rates unchanged in the coming months. In a series of quarterly economic projections, Federal Reserve officials indicated they expect to cut US interest rates only once next year. Overall, yesterday’s rate cut brought the federal funds rate down by a quarter of a percentage point to around 3.6%, its lowest level in nearly three years. Lower interest rates by the Federal Reserve can reduce borrowing costs for mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards over time, although market forces may also influence these rates.

At the final meeting of 2025, three Fed officials opposed the move, the most dissenting votes in six years, indicating deep divisions within a committee that traditionally operates by consensus. Two officials voted to keep the U.S. interest rate unchanged, while Stephen Miran, appointed by Trump in September, voted for a half-point cut.

The December meeting may well signal a more tense period for the Fed. Officials are divided between those who favor lowering U.S. interest rates to stimulate employment and those who favor keeping them unchanged because inflation remains above the central bank’s 2% target. Unless there are clear signs of full control over inflation, or unemployment worsens, these divisions are likely to persist.

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Created on December 11, 2025

• USD/JPY is holding firm ahead of the FOMC, with traders focused on the press conference for clues on the pace of future cuts.
• The broader uptrend remains intact, with potential pullback zones between 155 and 153 offering possible long entries.

We do have the FOMC interest rate here in a couple of hours, and perhaps more importantly, we have the press conference. So, I suspect that about three hours from now, this chart will look quite a bit different. That being said, it doesn’t really matter because there are a couple of things that we can look at to determine whether or not there is going to be a continuation of the trend, or do we get some type of significant pullback. Notice how I didn’t say change in trend. And that’s because it would take a massive change in tone by the Federal Reserve to turn this thing around.

Pay attention to the press conference; he may say something along the lines of “data-dependent in our future decisions”, and that throws a bit of doubt into the market about the likelihood of continuous interest rate cuts. If that’s the case, then the US dollar should do quite well over the longer term. As a trader, I have closed my long position, and I’m waiting for an entry again. I look at this through the prism of maybe 154 yen being an excellent opportunity. But if we take off straight away and that would be a result of either Powell sounding very hesitant to cut going forward, the statement sounding very hesitant, or maybe they don’t cut at all.

Watching Key Pullback Zones

Right now, the Fed watch tool at the CME suggests, I want to say it’s around 90%, I haven’t checked it in a few days, that the Federal Reserve will cut. So, I think that would catch the market so far offside that the US dollar would just slam through the 158 yen level and go to the 160 yen level very quickly. That being said, though, I do think we have an opportunity for a little bit of a pullback to take advantage of, and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I’m watching this area right around 155, down to 154, and then again at 153.

What I am looking for on a shorter timeframe, not the daily chart necessarily, is some type of move like this. The V pattern on the hourly chart. Once we start to bounce and pick up a little bit of momentum, I’m willing to go long, and that’s because I am okay with owning this pair longer term. That being said, if we break down below 153 in the next several days, then the game’s up at least for a while. I don’t think that happens. Truthfully, I’d be a bit concerned if we broke down below 154, at least in the short term.

Longer term, I do think we’d go higher because the Bank of Japan has a whole litany of problems it has to deal with as well. And really, at this point in time, I think this ends up being a continuation of the carry trade, but I recognize that you may get an opportunity to pick up cheap US dollars.

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Platinum price surrendered to the sideways bias dominance, to fluctuate slowly near$1660.00 level, affected by the stability at $1695.00 barrier, which obstructs the chances of resuming the main bullish attack.

The price might keep providing sideways trading, however the stability above the extra support of $1605.00 supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, therefore, we will keep waiting for breaching the current barrier, to open the way for recording new gains that might begin at $1715.00 and $1745.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1635.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach

Platinum price surrendered to the sideways bias dominance, to fluctuate slowly near$1660.00 level, affected by the stability at $1695.00 barrier, which obstructs the chances of resuming the main bullish attack.

The price might keep providing sideways trading, however the stability above the extra support of $1605.00 supports the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, therefore, we will keep waiting for breaching the current barrier, to open the way for recording new gains that might begin at $1715.00 and $1745.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1635.00 and $1695.00

Trend forecast: Sideways until achieving the breach