• GBP/USD fluctuates in a tight range near 1.2800 after posting small losses on Tuesday.
• The pair’s bullish bias remains intact but the momentum weakens.
• Fed Chairman Powell will testify before House Financial Services Committee.

GBP/USD edged lower during the American trading hours on Tuesday and closed the day in negative territory. The pair holds steady near 1.2800 in the European session on Wednesday as investors refrain from taking large positions while awaiting the next fundamental driver.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell presented the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and responded to questions before the Senate Banking Committee on the first day of his Congressional testimony on Tuesday.

Powell reiterated that it will not be appropriate to lower the policy rate until they gain greater confidence in inflation heading sustainably toward 2%. Assessing the developments in the job market, “the most recent labor market data sent a pretty clear signal that the labor market has cooled considerably,” Powell said.

Following these remarks, the probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged in September stays near 25%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee later in the day. Investors, however, are likely to await Thursday’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data before deciding on the next direction for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index edged higher to 60 after falling toward 50 late Tuesday, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact, albeit lacking momentum.

In case GBP/USD continues to use 1.2800 (psychological level, static level) as support, 1.2850-1.2860 (static level, June 12 high) could be seen as next resistance before 1.2900 (psychological level, static level). If 1.2800 support fails, an extended slide toward 1.2750 (static level) and 1.2710 (20-day Simple Moving Average) could be seen.

• GBP/USD fluctuates in a tight range near 1.2800 after posting small losses on Tuesday.
• The pair’s bullish bias remains intact but the momentum weakens.
• Fed Chairman Powell will testify before House Financial Services Committee.

GBP/USD edged lower during the American trading hours on Tuesday and closed the day in negative territory. The pair holds steady near 1.2800 in the European session on Wednesday as investors refrain from taking large positions while awaiting the next fundamental driver.

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell presented the Semi-Annual Monetary Policy Report and responded to questions before the Senate Banking Committee on the first day of his Congressional testimony on Tuesday.

Powell reiterated that it will not be appropriate to lower the policy rate until they gain greater confidence in inflation heading sustainably toward 2%. Assessing the developments in the job market, “the most recent labor market data sent a pretty clear signal that the labor market has cooled considerably,” Powell said.

Following these remarks, the probability of the Fed leaving the policy rate unchanged in September stays near 25%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Powell will testify before the House Financial Services Committee later in the day. Investors, however, are likely to await Thursday’s June Consumer Price Index (CPI) data before deciding on the next direction for GBP/USD.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index edged higher to 60 after falling toward 50 late Tuesday, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact, albeit lacking momentum.

In case GBP/USD continues to use 1.2800 (psychological level, static level) as support, 1.2850-1.2860 (static level, June 12 high) could be seen as next resistance before 1.2900 (psychological level, static level). If 1.2800 support fails, an extended slide toward 1.2750 (static level) and 1.2710 (20-day Simple Moving Average) could be seen.

• In my daily Euro/US dollar analysis, it’s hard not to notice that we are essentially sitting still.
• It looks like the 1.08 level will continue to be a bit of a magnet for price.
• And it’s worth noting that if you go back two years, you can see that most of the action is centered around large round figures.

So, for example, the fact that we are at the 1.08 level and bouncing around should not be a huge surprise. We’ve previously seen the 1.07 level and the 1.09 level both be rather important. So, I think we’re just killing time. This does make a certain amount of sense considering that it’s summer and this is typically a low liquidity or at least low volatility time of year and really there’s nothing to do.

Moving Average Suggest Nothingness

Looking at the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators, you can see they are essentially flat and lost. So, with this, I think we remain very range bound, and it would not surprise me at all to see this EUR/USD market end up right about where we are by the end of the week. There are a couple of announcements that we will have to pay attention to in the form of the consumer price index and the producer’s price index in America at the end of the week.

That could cause some noise, but really, I don’t see this market moving more than about 100 pips on both of those announcements combined, because it seems like there’s always a narrative to bring things back the other way. The federal reserve is nowhere near cutting interest rates. At least not from what I see, but they are at least acknowledging that they will have to someday and that might be enough to get people excited, but at the same time, the ECB has already cut raids once and are more likely than not going to do so again rather soon. In other words, this is a very ambivalent and neutral pair.

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• In my daily GBP/JPY analysis, the British pound has shown itself to be very strong yet again against the Japanese yen as we continue to see upward trajectory, mainly based on the interest rate differential.
• It does make a lot of sense that we would see this.
• After all, the market is going to continue to be a situation where people take advantage of cheap pounds anytime they get the opportunity.

You also have to keep in mind that the GBP/JPY market is going to see this as a situation where traders look at this as being a little extended to the upside, but over the longer term, I do believe that the interest rate differential will continue to push this market higher over the longer term and it would just be too much for traders to ignore.

A pullback at this point in time would be looking toward the 205 yen level as potential support. On the other hand, if we break down below there then we could be looking at a move down to the 200 yen level which would be an excellent value opportunity from what I see. If for some reason we do drop to the 200 level, I think a lot of people will jump into the market right away on the first signs of strength.

Noisy, But Bullish Overall

All things being equal, this is a market that will continue to be very noisy. But really at this point in time, you have to keep in mind that the bank of Japan has no real recourse due to the fact that they simply cannot do anything about interest rates. The debt in the country of Japan is so overdone at this point in time that any type of interest rate hike is off the table. They have shown proclivity to intervene from time to time, and that is a possibility. But right now, I think any intervention will only be met by more buying on the dip. So therefore, I remain long and strong.

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A note from RBC on the Bank of England and sterling, says that apart from the BoE outlook the currency could drop on fiscal risks regardless. In summary:

• BOE could cut by 50 basis points in both 2024 and 2025, leaving GBP with still one of the highest rates in the G10

But risk for GBP comes from government fiscal policy:

• the constrained fiscal backdrop not leaving much space for flexibility
• any deterioration in fiscal policy credibility would leave sterling vulnerable
• GBP faces more “asymmetric risk to the downside than to the upside”

Forecasts EUR/GBP to 0.91 by Q4 of 2025

• EUR/USD met a decent resistance near 1.0860 so far.
• The decent recovery in the Dollar kept the pair under pressure.
• Chief Powell’s testimony fell on the cautious side.

The US Dollar (USD) regained further upside impulse on Tuesday, prompting the USD Index (DXY) to trespass the 105.00 hurdle amid a generalized risk-off sentiment in the FX world.

This recovery in the Greenback triggered extra selling pressure on EUR/USD, pushing it back to the 1.0800 neighbourhood as market participants digested the first semi-annual testimony by Chief Jerome Powell before Congress, where he once again reiterated that the Committee needs to see further progress on inflation heading towards the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) 2% goal before starting to reduce its interest rates. That said, Powell gave no indication whatsoever of the potential timing of an interest rate reduction.

Following Powell’s testimony, the macroeconomic environment remained relatively stable on both sides of the Atlantic.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is considering further rate cuts beyond the summer, with market expectations pointing to two additional cuts by the end of the year. Conversely, there is still debate among investors about whether the Fed will implement one or two rate cuts this year, despite the bank’s current projection of a single cut, likely in December.

According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there is about a 74% chance of interest rate cuts in September, rising to nearly 96% by December.

The ECB’s rate cut in June, combined with the Fed’s decision to maintain rates, has increased the policy divergence between the two central banks. This divergence could potentially lead to further weakening of EUR/USD in the short term.

However, the prospects of economic recovery in the Euroland, coupled with the perceived cooling of some key US fundamentals, may mitigate this disparity and occasionally support the pair in the near future.

Looking ahead, the second testimony by Chair Jerome Powell, Fed speakers, and the release of US inflation figures measured by the CPI are expected to be key drivers for the pair’s price action in the very near term.

EUR/USD daily chart

EUR/USD short-term technical outlook

EUR/USD is expected to target the July peak of 1.0845 (July 8), followed by the weekly high of 1.0852 (June 12) and the June top of 1.0916 (June 4). If the pair breaks above this level, it may bring the March peak of 1.0981 (March 8) back into focus, seconded by the weekly high of 1.0998 (January 11) and the psychological 1.1000 barrier.

If bears regain control, spot may confront the 200-day SMA at 1.0798 prior to its June low of 1.0666 (June 26). Down from here emerges the May low of 1.0649 (May 1), and ultimately to the 2024 bottom of 1.0601 (April 16).

Looking at the larger picture, more gains appear to be on the horizon if the critical 200-day SMA (1.0797) is routinely surpassed.

So far, the 4-hour chart indicates the resumption of the downward bias. The initial support comes at the 200-SMA at 1.0783 ahead of the 55-SMA of 1.0767 and then 1.0709. On the upside, initial hurdle aligns at 1.0845 closely followed by 1.0852 and the 1. 0902.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to around 51.

• I can see that the GBP/JPY pair is going to continue to be positive, which of course makes a lot of sense considering that you’ve seen a lot of interest rate differential come into play, and it looks like the bulk of traders out there willing to hang on to this pair.
• I know I certainly am and will continue to hold the British pound over the Japanese yen, because of the massive interest rate differential.

Short-term pullbacks at this point in time should be a nice buying opportunity, as it gives us an opportunity to pick up “cheap pounds”, and of course continue to collect that swap at the end of every day. With this being said, it’s also worth noting that the interest rate differential is quite large, and I suspect that there is no real argument to make for it changing anytime soon. Quite frankly, even if the Bank of England did cut rates, the interest rate is still wide enough to drive a truck through, and as long as that’s going to be the case, you get paid at the end of every day to hang on to this pair.

I have no interest in shorting this market because I am not willing to pay to do so. I believe that there are several areas of support underneath, not the least of which would be the ¥205 level, and then again at the ¥200 level. The ¥200 level is also backed up by the 50-Day EMA, which of course is a technical indicator that a lot of people will be paying attention to.

One way trade

I believe that unless something changes quite drastically, this will continue to be a “one-way trade”, as the market has been so bullish that even if we were to pull back, you would have to assume that sooner or later the buyers would come in and try to pick up any type of value that presents itself. As things stand right now, I don’t even have a scenario where I am going to short the GBP/JPY pair.

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