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3 07, 2024

EUR/USD Forecast – Euro Continues to See Noisy Action

By |2024-07-03T16:08:44+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

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3 07, 2024

Pound Sterling could clear 1.2700 on weak US data

By |2024-07-03T14:06:46+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

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  • GBP/USD trades marginally higher near 1.2700 on Wednesday.
  • The technical outlook highlights a bullish tilt in the near term.
  • The USD could stay on the back foot if the US data disappoint.

GBP/USD continues to edge higher and trades in positive territory near 1.2700 after posting gains on Tuesday. The pair’s technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the near term as investors await key macroeconomic data releases from the US.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.42% -0.42% 0.68% 0.00% -0.02% 0.24% 0.62%
EUR 0.42%   -0.19% 0.80% 0.14% 0.18% 0.37% 0.77%
GBP 0.42% 0.19%   0.99% 0.34% 0.39% 0.56% 0.95%
JPY -0.68% -0.80% -0.99%   -0.67% -0.69% -0.31% -0.19%
CAD -0.00% -0.14% -0.34% 0.67%   -0.03% 0.23% 0.62%
AUD 0.02% -0.18% -0.39% 0.69% 0.03%   0.19% 0.66%
NZD -0.24% -0.37% -0.56% 0.31% -0.23% -0.19%   0.41%
CHF -0.62% -0.77% -0.95% 0.19% -0.62% -0.66% -0.41%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) came under modest selling pressure as the market mood improved during the American trading hours on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the policy outlook on Tuesday.

Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Powell acknowledged that the disinflation trend was showing signs of resuming. Although he reiterated that they need to be more confident before reducing the policy rate, he added that an unexpected weakness in the labor market could cause them to react.

Later in the session, ADP Employment Change from the US will be watched closely by market participants. The report is expected to show an increase of 160,000 in private sector payrolls. A significant negative surprise, with a reading below 130,000, could put additional weight on the USD’s shoulders. 

The US economic calendar will also feature the ISM Services PMI for June. In case the headline PMI holds comfortably above 50, the USD could stay resilient against its rivals and limit GBP/USD upside. On the flip side, a print below 50 could further weigh on the USD.

On Thursday, US markets will remain closed in observance of the July 4 holiday and the UK general election will take place.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 60, reflecting a buildup of bullish momentum. Additionally, the last 4-hour candle close above the 100-period Simple Moving Average.

On the upside, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart form stiff resistance near 1.2700. In case GBP/USD rises above this level and starts using it as support, technical buyers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.2750 (static level) and 1.2800 (static level, psychological level) could be seen as next resistance levels.

If GBP/USD fails to clear 1.2700, it could stage a technical correction. The 100-day SMA aligns as key support at 1.2640 before 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

  • GBP/USD trades marginally higher near 1.2700 on Wednesday.
  • The technical outlook highlights a bullish tilt in the near term.
  • The USD could stay on the back foot if the US data disappoint.

GBP/USD continues to edge higher and trades in positive territory near 1.2700 after posting gains on Tuesday. The pair’s technical outlook points to a bullish tilt in the near term as investors await key macroeconomic data releases from the US.

British Pound PRICE This week

The table below shows the percentage change of British Pound (GBP) against listed major currencies this week. British Pound was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.

  USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF
USD   -0.42% -0.42% 0.68% 0.00% -0.02% 0.24% 0.62%
EUR 0.42%   -0.19% 0.80% 0.14% 0.18% 0.37% 0.77%
GBP 0.42% 0.19%   0.99% 0.34% 0.39% 0.56% 0.95%
JPY -0.68% -0.80% -0.99%   -0.67% -0.69% -0.31% -0.19%
CAD -0.00% -0.14% -0.34% 0.67%   -0.03% 0.23% 0.62%
AUD 0.02% -0.18% -0.39% 0.69% 0.03%   0.19% 0.66%
NZD -0.24% -0.37% -0.56% 0.31% -0.23% -0.19%   0.41%
CHF -0.62% -0.77% -0.95% 0.19% -0.62% -0.66% -0.41%  

The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the British Pound from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent GBP (base)/USD (quote).

The US Dollar (USD) came under modest selling pressure as the market mood improved during the American trading hours on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments on the policy outlook on Tuesday.

Speaking at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, Powell acknowledged that the disinflation trend was showing signs of resuming. Although he reiterated that they need to be more confident before reducing the policy rate, he added that an unexpected weakness in the labor market could cause them to react.

Later in the session, ADP Employment Change from the US will be watched closely by market participants. The report is expected to show an increase of 160,000 in private sector payrolls. A significant negative surprise, with a reading below 130,000, could put additional weight on the USD’s shoulders. 

The US economic calendar will also feature the ISM Services PMI for June. In case the headline PMI holds comfortably above 50, the USD could stay resilient against its rivals and limit GBP/USD upside. On the flip side, a print below 50 could further weigh on the USD.

On Thursday, US markets will remain closed in observance of the July 4 holiday and the UK general election will take place.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart climbed above 60, reflecting a buildup of bullish momentum. Additionally, the last 4-hour candle close above the 100-period Simple Moving Average.

On the upside, the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-period SMA on the 4-hour chart form stiff resistance near 1.2700. In case GBP/USD rises above this level and starts using it as support, technical buyers could remain interested. In this scenario, 1.2750 (static level) and 1.2800 (static level, psychological level) could be seen as next resistance levels.

If GBP/USD fails to clear 1.2700, it could stage a technical correction. The 100-day SMA aligns as key support at 1.2640 before 1.2600 (psychological level, static level).

Pound Sterling FAQs

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE).

The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects.

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall.

Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

 

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3 07, 2024

Natural Gas Price Forecast – natural gas continues to hang at low levels

By |2024-07-03T12:27:42+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


Natural gas markets have continued to go a bit sideways as the market hangs around very low levels. Because of this, I’m simply sitting on my hands and waiting for the appropriate trading opportunity.

Natural gas markets have been sold off rather drastically over the last several months, as we have left the coldest part of the year for the United States. At this point, the $2.50 level underneath is offering support, and it is a level that is historically important as we have seen so much in the way of support at this level over the last several years. At this point, I’m not willing to sell this market, because quite frankly we don’t have that far to go before you can run into trouble. However, I’m not willing to buy this market as although it is oversold, the reality is that there are far too many reasons to think that natural gas will remain cheap.

NATGAS Video 14.02.19

After all, there is a massive oversupply of natural gas in the United States and Canada, which both could power the world for 300 years based upon proven gas in the ground. With that in mind, the fact that we rallied should get you interested in selling at signs of exhaustion. We have fallen so far that I think we need a significant rally though, probably to at least the $2.75 level, perhaps even the $3.00 level. As soon as we get to those levels and show signs of exhaustion, I will not hesitate to sell this market. From a technical standpoint, you could make an argument for a falling wedge, which is a slightly bullish pattern, but I will ignore those buying signals and simply look for an opportunity to sell at higher levels as it goes with the longer-term trend.

Please let us know what you think in the comments below

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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3 07, 2024

XAU/USD eyes a range breakout, as Fed Minutes looms

By |2024-07-03T10:26:54+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


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  • Gold price oscillates in a familiar range near $2,330 early Wednesday.
  • The US Dollar licks wounds with US Treasury yields amid a cautious mood.  
  • Fed Chair Powell touts inflation progress, boosts September rate cut prospects.
  • Gold price needs to crack the 50-day SMA for a sustained recovery, as the daily RSI prods 50 level.

Gold price is trading around a flatline near $2,330 early Wednesday, as traders consider the recent US jobs data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, bracing for yet another busy US calendar.  

Gold price awaits US ADP jobs data and Fed Minutes

Asian markets are trading mixed, shrugging off the positive close on Wall Street overnight. Weaker-then-expected China’s Caixin Services PMI rekindles economic growth concerns and dents the sentiment around the domestic stocks. The negative shift in the market mood somewhat helps limit the US Dollar decline while keeping Gold price slightly on the back foot.

However, the downside in Gold price remains capped, as the US Treasury bond yields continue to reel from the pain of dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered on Tuesday at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on central banking in Sintra. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields nudged lower to 4.43% on Tuesday after one of its largest single-day gains of the year on Monday.

Though Powell cheered the recent inflation data, which clearly points to a disinflationary path, he quickly added that he wants to see more before being confident enough to start cutting interest rates.

Markets scaled up bets for a September rate cut slightly after Fed Chair Powell acknowledged progress in disinflation, as they perceived his comments as dovish. Currently, markets see a 67% chance of the Fed lowering rates in September, a tad higher than about 63% seen before Powell’s commentary.

Renewed dovish Fed expectations could continue to provide ‘dip-buying’ demand for Gold price, also as the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report showed a net 10 tons of Gold buying by central banks in May. The National Bank of Poland was the biggest Gold purchaser in May, adding 10 tons of gold to its reserves, the WGC report said.

All eyes now turn to the US ADP Employment Change report after the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed Tuesday that the job openings rose to 8.14 million at the end of May, an increase from the 7.92 million job openings in April. The ADP data is expected to show 160K jobs gains in the US private sector last month, against a 152K increase in May.

Next of note for Gold price remains the Minutes of the Fed’s June 11-12 policy meeting, which could shed more insights on the central bank’s rate and inflation outlook, having a considerable impact on the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

 

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirting with the 50 level and Gold price defending the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,328, risks appear evenly split for traders.

Gold buyers need a sustained break above the 50-day SMA barrier at $2,338 to restart a meaningful recovery from the monthly low of $2,287. 

The next topside barrier is seen at the $2,350 psychological level, above which the two-week high of $2,369 could be challenged.

Conversely, if the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,328 fails to hold the fort, sellers could extend their control for a test of this week’s low of $2,319.

The $2,300 threshold will come into play should the selling momentum gather pace. The next strong support is aligned at the June low of $2,289.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 

  • Gold price oscillates in a familiar range near $2,330 early Wednesday.
  • The US Dollar licks wounds with US Treasury yields amid a cautious mood.  
  • Fed Chair Powell touts inflation progress, boosts September rate cut prospects.
  • Gold price needs to crack the 50-day SMA for a sustained recovery, as the daily RSI prods 50 level.

Gold price is trading around a flatline near $2,330 early Wednesday, as traders consider the recent US jobs data and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, bracing for yet another busy US calendar.  

Gold price awaits US ADP jobs data and Fed Minutes

Asian markets are trading mixed, shrugging off the positive close on Wall Street overnight. Weaker-then-expected China’s Caixin Services PMI rekindles economic growth concerns and dents the sentiment around the domestic stocks. The negative shift in the market mood somewhat helps limit the US Dollar decline while keeping Gold price slightly on the back foot.

However, the downside in Gold price remains capped, as the US Treasury bond yields continue to reel from the pain of dovish comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered on Tuesday at the European Central Bank (ECB) Forum on central banking in Sintra. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury yields nudged lower to 4.43% on Tuesday after one of its largest single-day gains of the year on Monday.

Though Powell cheered the recent inflation data, which clearly points to a disinflationary path, he quickly added that he wants to see more before being confident enough to start cutting interest rates.

Markets scaled up bets for a September rate cut slightly after Fed Chair Powell acknowledged progress in disinflation, as they perceived his comments as dovish. Currently, markets see a 67% chance of the Fed lowering rates in September, a tad higher than about 63% seen before Powell’s commentary.

Renewed dovish Fed expectations could continue to provide ‘dip-buying’ demand for Gold price, also as the latest World Gold Council (WGC) report showed a net 10 tons of Gold buying by central banks in May. The National Bank of Poland was the biggest Gold purchaser in May, adding 10 tons of gold to its reserves, the WGC report said.

All eyes now turn to the US ADP Employment Change report after the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showed Tuesday that the job openings rose to 8.14 million at the end of May, an increase from the 7.92 million job openings in April. The ADP data is expected to show 160K jobs gains in the US private sector last month, against a 152K increase in May.

Next of note for Gold price remains the Minutes of the Fed’s June 11-12 policy meeting, which could shed more insights on the central bank’s rate and inflation outlook, having a considerable impact on the value of the US Dollar and the Gold price.

Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart

 

With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) flirting with the 50 level and Gold price defending the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $2,328, risks appear evenly split for traders.

Gold buyers need a sustained break above the 50-day SMA barrier at $2,338 to restart a meaningful recovery from the monthly low of $2,287. 

The next topside barrier is seen at the $2,350 psychological level, above which the two-week high of $2,369 could be challenged.

Conversely, if the 21-day SMA resistance-turned-support at $2,328 fails to hold the fort, sellers could extend their control for a test of this week’s low of $2,319.

The $2,300 threshold will come into play should the selling momentum gather pace. The next strong support is aligned at the June low of $2,289.

Gold FAQs

Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.

Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.

Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.

The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

 



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3 07, 2024

USD/JPY Forecast: How Japanese Services PMI May Affect BoJ’s Interest Rate Decision?

By |2024-07-03T06:02:23+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

FX Empire – US Continuing Jobless Claims
Beyond the US labor market, US services sector PMI numbers may also impact investor expectations of a Fed rate cut.

US ISM Services PMI Another Fed Consideration

The services sector accounts for over 70% of the US economy and contributes to headline inflation.

Economists expect the ISM Services PMI to drop from 53.8 in May to 52.5 in June. Furthermore, economists predict the ISM Services Prices Index to fall from 58.1 to 57.8.

More modest service sector activity and weaker input price pressures could fuel investor bets on a September Fed rate cut.

However, investors should consider the ISM Services PMI data alongside the US labor market data.

The Fed may require softer service sector activity and a pullback in service sector prices. Weaker labor market conditions would also be considerations in their decision to cut interest rates in 2024.

Late in the US session, the FOMC Meeting Minutes may have a limited impact on the USD/JPY. Recent US economic indicators could give investors a more current picture of the Fed rate path.

Short-term Forecast: Bearish

USD/JPY trends remain hinged on intervention threats, BoJ commentary, US labor market data, and services sector data. Hotter-than-expected US data could sink investor bets on a September Fed rate cut. However, an intervention to bolster the Yen would offset the immediate effects of the numbers from the US.

Investors should stay vigilant as the Japanese Services PMI release approaches. Monitor real-time data and expert commentary to adjust trading strategies accordingly. Stay informed with our latest updates and insights to navigate the USD/JPY dynamics effectively.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

The USD/JPY remained well above the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, confirming the bullish price trends.

A USD/JPY break above the July 2 high of 161.745 could signal a return to the 162 handle.

The Japanese government, Bank of Japan, US labor market data, and services PMIs require consideration.

Conversely, a drop below the 160 handle could give the bears a run at the 50-day EMA.

The 14-day RSI at 75.74 shows a USD/JPY in overbought territory. Selling pressure may increase at the July 3 high of 161.745.

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3 07, 2024

EUR Strengthens Vs GBP (Chart)

By |2024-07-03T04:00:58+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments







(MENAFN– Daily Forex)

  • I see that the
    EUR/GBP pair is starting to rise again, and perhaps threaten a major resistance barrier in the form of the 0.85 level furthermore, there are other technical analysis factor to take into account, but today has been very interesting to say the least.

EUR/GBPThe Euro rallied a bit during the course of the trading session on Monday to reach the crucial 0.85 level. The 0.85 level is an area that has been very important more than once, so therefore I think you need to be cognizant of the fact that it has a certain amount of“market memory” attached to it. Furthermore, we have the 50-Day EMA hanging around the same level, and that of course is a major influence on what happens next. We have pulled back from their rather aggressively, so it shows that there is quite a bit of selling pressure in that general vicinity.Top Forex Brokers

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That being said, if we can get a daily close above the 0.85 level, then I think we have an opportunity to pick up value on any short-term dip, and the main reason I say this is due to the fact that we had recently tested a major support level underneath, which is right around the 0.84 level. This is an area that people had paid attention to on longer-term charts via a monthly action, and perhaps even yearly. All things being equal, the idea that one of these currencies are actually going to suddenly take off against the other for a longer-term move is probably a bit of a stretch, mainly due to the fact that the US dollar is king at the moment, and I think it will continue to be so.This brings me to the main reason to follow this pair, which of course is the fact that it can give you relative strength characterization of either the euro or the British pound, and then you can trade these currencies against the other ones using this information. In other words, both of them are weak against the US dollar, but the euro is weaker than the British pound, then the trade is to short the EUR/USD pair . This is a process called“triangulation”, that I have found to be very profitable over the longer term.Ready to trade our EUR to GBP Forecast ? We’ve made this forex brokers list for you to check out.MENAFN02072024000131011023ID1108399814


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3 07, 2024

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Breakdown Signals Lower Targets

By |2024-07-03T02:21:08+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


200-Day Line Fails to Hold as Support

Both the long-term 200-Day MA and intermediate 50-Day MA failed to stop the descent in the price of natural gas. And it is on track to close clearly below the line today. This increases the short-term bearish outlook and the chance to reach lower targets before the retracement is complete. Below 2.34 begins a price zone from 2.235 to around 2.18.

Nonetheless, this does not mean that natural gas continues straight down as it has the past several days. A bounce is coming sometime. If it comes soon, the first sign of strength would be on a rally above today’s high of 2.48. Potential resistance around the 200-Day MA at 2.47 and the 50-Day line at 2.49 should also be considered, followed by this week’s high of 2.60.

Result of Failed Trendline Breakout

Natural gas is reacting to a failed trendline breakout that began in early-June. It was able to stay above the long-term downtrend line for only four days before it succumbed to selling pressure. Bearish implications were confirmed today with the drop below the 200-Day line. This means that the recovery could take some time.

Possible Time Symmetry

Let’s quickly analyze the timing of the current retracement. As indicated above, it takes the shape of a falling ABCD pattern. The AB decline of the pattern occurred in eight days while the current CD down leg is now in its fourth day. Will a retracement low be reached after an eight-day decline for the CD leg of the pattern? If it does, time symmetry will be represented. As with price, once swings match in time a potential pivot point has been identified.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.



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3 07, 2024

GBP/USD Analysis Today 02/7: Gains Remain Limited (Chart)

By |2024-07-03T01:59:29+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • The British pound started the new week trading higher against the US dollar, although a crowded US data calendar and the UK elections could cause some volatility.
  • According to forex trading, GBP/USD rose to the 1.2709 resistance level before quickly returning to its broader downtrend, settling around 1.2645 at the time of writing.

According to reliable trading platforms, the pound received support from the rise in European assets as investors expressed relief that Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party is unlikely to win an absolute majority in the National Assembly after the weekend’s elections. This came after her party performed less than expected (~33% of the vote) compared to what opinion polls indicated it would achieve (~36%). Overall, a hung legislature is the likely outcome of Sunday’s second round of voting, especially as the far left and centrist parties are willing to cooperate on an anti-Le Pen voting strategy. The end result is that European assets are on the rise, including the pound.

 Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

Technically, GBP/USD has moved above its 9-day moving average, the first real positive technical development we have seen for the pair since mid-June. This could signal some near-term gains, with 1.27 a potential target. Also, the RSI is at 50 (neutral) but has turned higher again (positive development in the coming hours). Overall, we note that GBP/USD has also broken above its 50-day moving average, which has turned into a source of resistance last week.

A daily close above this level (1.2654) could indicate that a more constructive technical outlook is starting to form again. Recently, a rise in the pound could put it on track towards the midpoint forecast by major global investment banks.

Looking at the economic calendar, several releases and speeches this week could offer sterling volatility. The US ISM manufacturing survey is due out on Monday, which could provide further signs of an economic slowdown. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the European Central Bank conference in Sintra, Portugal on Tuesday. Markets will be keen to hear his updated views on the possibility of a Fed rate cut in 2024.

This theme continues into the middle of the week when the Fed releases its minutes of its June 11-12 policy meeting. Thus, this is expected to provide more color for markets on the very important question of interest rates. Also, Wednesday sees the release of the ISM PMI services survey, another potential market-moving release. As a reminder, if the market raises its expectations of a September rate cut after this data and appearances, the dollar could weaken. Any disappointments would strengthen the dollar. Currently, the market is pricing in a 56% chance of a September rate cut.

Furthermore, the highlight of the week will be the US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday. The headline number is expected to come in at 180,000, down from 272,000. Also, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% on a monthly basis in June.

The UK election on Thursday is a low-risk event at this stage as the odds of a Labor win are very high and we have seen no shift in the polls to suggest that this will not be the outcome. The first major event to watch is the exit poll due at 10pm on Thursday night. Moreover, this has been a very accurate indicator in recent history. However, the surprise would be a strong Conservative showing which would lead to a ‘hung parliament’ where no party can command a majority on its own. Consequently, this would lead to a weaker pound as markets contemplate a period of uncertainty. Ultimately, we expect volatility to be short-lived as there is nothing radical in the spending and tax plans of Labor, the Conservatives or the Lib Dems.

Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex trading platforms UK to choose from. 

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3 07, 2024

Global Coffee Capsules Market Size To Worth USD 14.2

By |2024-07-03T00:20:33+03:00July 3, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments


New York, United States , July 02, 2024 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) — The Global Coffee Capsules Market Size is to Grow from USD 6.9 Billion in 2023 to USD 14.2 Billion by 2033, at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 7.48% during the projected period.

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A coffee capsule is a paper filter-free coffee container made of aluminum or plastic. It is typically different from other things since it is designed expressly to work with a certain brand or system. Utilizing single-serve vacuum-packed coffee capsules calls for certain equipment. As a result, producers release new formulas onto the market, such as coffee capsules. Caffeine also enhances athletic performance by increasing fatty acid oxidation and metabolism and releasing fatty acids from fat cells. There is a growing market for non-alcoholic beverages. Non-alcoholic beverage options include fruit juices, bottled water, carbonated soft drinks, and RTD tea and coffee. Growing urbanization, changing lifestyles, rising health consciousness, and rising disposable income are all predicted to cause a rise in the use of non-alcoholic beverages. Popular non-alcoholic drinks, such as coffee, are valued for their strong caffeine flavor and scent. However, due to the detrimental impacts of packaging, it is anticipated that the demand for coffee capsules will decrease. Coffee capsules are not recyclable since they include both plastic and aluminum.
Browse key industry insights spread across 210 pages with 95 Market data tables and figures & charts from the report on the “Global Coffee Capsule Market Size, Share, and COVID-19 Impact Analysis, By Material (Aluminum, Compostable, PBT Plastic), By Application (Residential, Commercial), By Distribution Channel (Supermarkets and Hypermarkets, Specialty Stores, Online Stores, and Others), and By Region (North America, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Latin America, Middle East, and Africa), Analysis and Forecast 2023 – 2033.”

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The aluminum segment is anticipated to hold the greatest share of the global coffee capsules market during the projected timeframe.   
Based on the material, the global coffee capsules market is divided into aluminum, compostable, and PBT plastic. Among these, the aluminum segment is anticipated to hold the greatest share of the global coffee capsules market during the projected timeframe. A combination of their simplicity of use and adaptability, aluminum coffee capsules have seen a significant increase in popularity recently. Customers who want to quickly and conveniently create delicious coffee without having to measure out coffee grounds or grind their own beans are starting to like aluminum coffee capsules more and more. Aluminium coffee capsules are in high demand due to the growing popularity of single-serve coffee makers such as Keurig and Nespresso. These machines, which are designed to use pre-packaged coffee capsules, allow users to quickly prepare one cup of coffee. 

The commercial segment is anticipated to hold the greatest share of the global coffee capsules market during the projected timeframe.   
Based on the end user, the global coffee capsules market is divided into residential and commercial. Among these, the commercial segment is anticipated to hold the greatest share of the global coffee capsules market during the projected timeframe. The use of coffee capsules in an industrial setting has several advantages. Coffee capsules are a cost-effective and practical solution for businesses looking to provide a range of coffee choices without having to hire professional baristas or invest in specialist equipment. Coffee capsules additionally reduce waste and disarray, which is advantageous in hectic workplaces where productivity and organization are essential.

The supermarkets & hypermarkets segment is predicted to hold the greatest share of the coffee capsules market during the estimated period.
Based on the distribution channel, the global coffee capsules market is divided into supermarkets and hypermarkets, specialty stores, online stores, and others. Among these, the supermarkets & hypermarkets segment is predicted to hold the greatest share of the coffee capsules market during the estimated period. Supermarkets and hypermarkets provide a wide variety of food, drink, and everyday items. Numerous brands of coffee capsules are among the many products available in supermarkets and hypermarkets. Customers have lots of alternatives when it comes to coffee capsules because supermarkets and hypermarkets have dedicated departments for them. The producers of coffee capsules sell directly to retailers or distributors, who resell the capsules to retailers that stock supermarkets and hypermarkets.

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Asia Pacific is expected to hold the largest share of the global coffee capsules market over the forecast period.

Asia Pacific is expected to hold the largest share of the global coffee capsules market over the forecast period. The growth of the Asia Pacific market is heavily impacted by variables such as customers’ changing lifestyles and preference for coffee over tea. Customers in the Asia-Pacific region, especially those from China, India, and Japan, prefer to purchase health-related goods. The strong demand for novel products in the Asia Pacific region is driving the market’s growth. The market for coffee capsules is growing in the Asia-Pacific region as a result of rising coffee maker supply and demand.

Europe is predicted to grow at the fastest pace in the global coffee capsules market during the projected timeframe. Coffee capsules, sometimes referred to as coffee pods, allow consumers to quickly and simply make one cup of coffee at home or at work. There are a number of factors driving the demand for coffee capsules in Europe, such as the rising popularity of single-serve coffee and the trend toward home brewing. Consumers are searching for quick and easy ways to enjoy delicious coffee at home without having to invest in bulky, costly coffee brewing supplies. coffee capsules’ ease of use and convenience have increased their appeal. Because they have already been measured, ground, and packaged, they are a hassle-free option for clients who are rushed for time.

Competitive Analysis:

The report offers the appropriate analysis of the key organizations/companies involved within the global market along with a comparative evaluation primarily based on their product offering, business overviews, geographic presence, enterprise strategies, segment market share, and SWOT analysis. The report also provides an elaborative analysis focusing on the current news and developments of the companies, which includes product development, innovations, joint ventures, partnerships, mergers & acquisitions, strategic alliances, and others. This allows for the evaluation of the overall competition within the market. Major vendors in the global coffee capsules Starbucks Corporation, illycaffè S.p.A., Coffeeza, The Kraft Heinz Company, Dualit Limited, JACOBS DOUWE EGBERTS, RAVE COFFEE, Nestle Nespresso SA, Gourmesso Coffee, Blue Tokai Coffee, Keurig Green Mountain, Inc., Gloria Jeans, DD IP Holder LLC, com, Starbucks Corporation, Others.

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Recent Developments

  • In April 2024, Arabica coffee capsules that are compatible with the Nespresso machine are being promoted as a way for Starbucks and Nespresso to bring the Starbucks coffee experience home. The new campaign aims to highlight the wide range of Flavors available in Starbucks’ great coffee.
  • In February 2024, Nestle S.A., one of the leading producers of coffee, announced the launch of their new range of organic coffees. The most recent product to be added to the organic collection is the Nespresso Brazil Organic Coffee Capsule. This new product is a responsibly sourced 100% Arabica blend.

Market Segment
This study forecasts revenue at global, regional, and country levels from 2020 to 2033. Spherical Insights has segmented the global coffee capsules market based on the below-mentioned segments:

Global Coffee Capsules Market, By Material

  • Aluminium
  • Compostable
  • PBT Plastic

Global Coffee Capsules Market, By End Use

Global Coffee Capsule Market, By Distribution Channel

  • Supermarkets And Hypermarkets
  • Specialty Stores
  • Online Stores
  • Others

Global Coffee Capsules Market, Regional Analysis

  • North America
  • Europe
    • Germany
    • Uk
    • France
    • Italy
    • Spain
    • Russia
    • Rest of Europe
  • Asia Pacific
    • China
    • Japan
    • India
    • South Korea
    • Australia
    • Rest of Asia Pacific
  • South America
    • Brazil
    • Argentina
    • Rest of South America
  • Middle East & Africa
    • UAE
    • Saudi Arabia
    • Qatar
    • South Africa
    • Rest of the Middle East & Africa

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2 07, 2024

USD/JPY Analysis Today 02/07: Uptrend to Continue (Chart)

By |2024-07-02T23:58:29+03:00July 2, 2024|Forex News, News|0 Comments

  • As the start of a key trading week, the Japanese yen traded at 161 yen to the dollar, slightly below its 38-year low of 161.72 yen set last week.
  • A downward revision to Japan’s first-quarter GDP kept the currency under pressure.
  • According to the economic calendar, the second revision showed that the Japanese economy contracted at an annual rate of 2.9% in the quarter from January to March, a sharper downturn than the previous 1.8% reading as revisions to capital spending weakened significantly.

Meanwhile, data showed that confidence among large Japanese manufacturers improved to a two-year high in the second quarter amid an improved economic outlook. Last week, the yen fell to multi-decade lows after the Finance Ministry appointed Atsushi Mimura as Japan’s top currency diplomat amid growing pressure to further defend the currency. Recently, the yen lost 2.3% against the U.S. dollar in June, extending its year-to-date decline to about 14% as the Bank of Japan took a more dovish approach to normalizing monetary policy than markets had expected.

In contrast, a growing group of Federal Reserve officials are debating the merits of communicating how they will respond to economic outcomes that diverge from their baseline expectations. Moreover, the post-pandemic recovery has repeatedly surprised economists on Wall Street and at the Fed, leading to sudden changes in market expectations for U.S. interest rates.

This has prompted a new discussion about how central bankers can better explain the risks and uncertainties surrounding the outlook for policy moves. Fed Governor Lisa Cook said last week, “The path of the economy is very uncertain – which means our response to it, which is the change in monetary policy, may also be uncertain – so why don’t we think about different scenarios?” and “It could be a very helpful tool.”

Overall, the concept of using scenarios in policymaking has gained new momentum after former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke recommended that the Bank of England make greater use of such scenarios in its April independent review of the central bank’s forecasting approach. The word “scenario” has been peppering Fed officials’ speeches and other public comments ever since, with several officials – such as Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic and San Francisco’s Mary Daly – using scenarios to paint different ways the economy could evolve, affecting the path of borrowing costs.

The main tool the Fed uses to signal its expectations is a quarterly summary of individual officials’ forecasts for unemployment, GDP, inflation, and the interest rate. The median forecasts in this document, known as the Summary of Economic Projections, are not intended to be official baseline estimates but are often seen as such.

Some officials, such as Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and former Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, have suggested adding more detail to the baseline to better communicate potential policy paths to the public.

USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today

My technical view on USD/JPY performance has not changed. The overall, trend remains bullish and recent gains have been enough to push all technical indicators into strong overbought levels. Technically, the trend may remain as it is until Japan intervenes in the forex markets to stem the yen’s losses or until markets and investors react to the Fed’s signals and US jobs numbers. Currently, the closest resistance levels for the currency pair are 161.75, 162.50 and 163.20, respectively.

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