The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above the barrier at 206.95 level, forcing it to form corrective waves to settle near 205.75 as appears in above image.
Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, to increase the intraday negative pressures on the trading, to increase the chances of testing extra support at 205.20, where breaking it will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching 204.60 and 204.10, while renewing the bullish attempts require providing new positive close above 206.90, to ease the mission of recording the main positive targets that extend to 207.70 and 208.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 205.20 and 206.60
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends the rally to near $4,230 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher to a near six-week high amid growing expectations of US interest rate cuts.
The US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) contracted for the ninth straight month in November, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed on Monday. The Manufacturing PMI declined to 48.2 in November, versus 48.7 prior, below the estimation of 48.6. Following softer US economic data, traders have increased December rate-cut bets to an 87% chance, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Lower interest rates could reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold, supporting the non-yielding precious metal.
“The underlying environment of expectations of further rate cuts, along with inflationary pressure still above the Fed target… is still the underlying support in gold and silver,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures.
On the other hand, China’s physical Gold demand softens at high prices, which could drag the yellow metal price lower. The Financial Times reported that large retail chains have reduced their footprint in mainland China this year, while several small sellers said surging prices and a growing tax burden had torpedoed sales.
This week’s key US macro releases could drive the US dollar (USD) demand and influence the near-term trajectory for the Gold price in the near term. Traders will take more cues from the US ADP Employment Change and ISM Services PMI reports on Wednesday, ahead of the key Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index inflation data. If the data come in stronger than expected, this could boost the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated commodity price.
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted sideways on Monday, with UK political tensions and shifting expectations around US monetary policy leaving the pairing without a clear direction.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was hovering around $1.3232, stuck in a tight band since the session began.
The Pound (GBP) traded without conviction at the start of the week, as the political and economic aftershocks of the UK’s autumn budget continued to weigh on sentiment.
Sterling was unsettled by fresh accusations that Chancellor Rachel Reeves misrepresented the true state of the public finances ahead of the budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) had revised productivity lower, but this was offset by stronger wage growth and healthier tax revenues — leaving Reeves with a surplus rather than the anticipated funding gap. Despite this, she signalled in pre-budget comments that tax increases were unavoidable.
The controversy has emerged at a difficult moment for the government. Both Reeves and Prime Minister Keir Starmer are grappling with persistently weak polling numbers and simmering frustration within Labour ranks, fuelling concerns that political tensions could escalate.
This undercurrent of instability kept the Pound on the back foot throughout Monday’s session, with traders wary that further volatility may lie ahead.
The US Dollar (USD) found its momentum constrained at the start of the week, even as markets leaned towards a risk-off stance, amid rising expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cut.
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Confidence in a December cut has grown steadily, with markets now pricing in an 87.6% probability — up from 84.4% a week ago. Softer labour market indicators have fuelled speculation that the Fed may act sooner rather than later to ease borrowing costs.
With rate-cut expectations building, the ‘Greenback’ struggled to extend any gains, its upside capped by the growing conviction that lower interest rates may be just around the corner.
GBP/USD Forecast: UK Politics Could Keep Pressure on Pound
Looking ahead, the political and fiscal turbulence following the autumn budget is likely to remain a dominant driver for the Pound, particularly in the absence of major UK data releases.
If pressure on Reeves and Starmer continues to mount — especially if dissent within the Labour Party becomes more vocal — Sterling may find it difficult to attract sustained support. Renewed political instability remains a well-established risk factor for GBP.
For the US Dollar, broader market sentiment may determine the next move. A risk-on shift would typically limit demand for the safe-haven currency, while a turn toward risk-off trading could help the ‘Greenback’ regain ground.
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International Paper Company (IP) extended its gains in its latest intraday trading as the stock attempts to correct its main short-term descending trend. However, continuous negative pressure persists from trading below its previous 50-day SMA, which limits its near-term recovery prospects. This comes especially with the emergence of a negative crossover on the RSI indicators after they reached extremely overbought levels in an exaggerated manner compared to the price movement, suggesting the early formation of a negative divergence.
Therefore we expect the stock to decline in its upcoming trading, especially if the resistance level of $39.50 holds, targeting again the pivotal support level of $35.55.
Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1510 with a target of 1.1700 and a stop-loss at 1.1450.
Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1700 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1780.
Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:
At the end of last week’s trading, the EUR/USD stabilized following the release of the latest Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. As announced, inflation is stable across most member states, and falling energy prices may contribute to its gradual decline. Excessive disinflation could eventually prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider further cuts, which would weigh on the Euro, but there is no evidence of this yet. According to licensed currency trading platforms, the Euro/Dollar price is currently stable around the 1.1600 level in the neutral zone at the start of the trading week.
Eurozone Inflation Rate Stabilization
According to the results of the economic calendar data, consumer price pressures in the Eurozone continue to show stability. National data pointed to subdued inflation expectations for November, reinforcing the ECB’s position to keep interest rates unchanged at this month’s meeting. As announced, the annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) in France stabilized at 0.8%. Harmonized inflation in Spain fell slightly to 3.1% from 3.0%, as falling food and transport prices offset some stickier core factors. In Germany, regional data from key states like North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria showed little change from the previous national reading of 2.3%.
On the other hand, selling price expectations in the services and manufacturing sectors have recently risen again, and upcoming fiscal stimulus is also expected to lead to new inflationary pressures, at least in certain sectors. In this regard, economists at Standard Chartered reported that their model suggests Eurozone core inflation is aligning with 2.5% for November. Akriti Agarwal, the bank’s European economist, stated that the rising Euro and weaker Spanish data would neutralize the upward effects of producer prices in other regions.
When is the euro trading bullish?
Based on the daily chart above, the current trading range for the EUR/USD is neutral. This is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) holding around a reading of 52, slightly above the neutral line. Simultaneously, the MACD indicator lines are preparing to turn upward pending stronger positive catalysts. A bullish turn for the Euro/Dollar requires a move toward the resistance levels of 1.1685, 1.1770, and 1.1820, respectively. Conversely, the bearish scenario for the Euro/Dollar will remain the most likely as long as it stabilizes around and below the psychological support level of 1.1500.
Today’s EUR/USD trading session will react to the release of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) readings for Eurozone economies. This starts with the Spanish reading at 10:15 AM Egypt time, the German reading at 10:55 AM Egypt time, and the aggregate Eurozone reading at 11:00 AM Egypt time. Following this, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI reading will be announced at 5:00 PM Egypt time.
Meanwhile, attention will now turn to the peace negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. As is known, any breakthrough could push energy prices down and potentially support the euro until the end of the year.
Trading Advice:
The EUR/USD exchange rate remains in a convoluted range. We are waiting for a strong move to determine the most suitable trading opportunities. Ultimitally, Buying below 1.1480 may be the best option.
The British pound traded quietly amid thin post-Thanksgiving conditions, with major technical levels clustering near 1.32.
A decisive break on either side of this inflection zone could determine the broader trend in the weeks ahead.
The British pound has been somewhat noisy during the trading session on Friday as we continue to see a lot of technical factors come into the picture. Friday, of course, was a fairly quiet trading session due to the fact that although the Thanksgiving holiday was over, it’s generally accepted that most Americans don’t go back to work until Monday. So, because of this, you have an entire part of the world that isn’t even involved in the markets.
That being said, it’s worth noting that the technical confluence is worth paying close attention to because it could matter. The 200-day EMA, the 50-day EMA, and the 1.32 level all come into play in this general vicinity. And if we break down below the 1.32 level, then I think we’ve got a situation where the market just simply rejected breaking above these crucial moving averages and broke above the idea of changing trends.
Critical Inflection Levels
If we drop from here, we could go to the 1.30 level given enough time. On the other hand, if we turn around and break above the 1.33 level, then we could go looking to the 1.35 level. But in that environment, I would expect not only the British pound to do fairly well against the US dollar, but multiple other currencies well, including the euro and the Canadian dollar.
In general, the British pound has made a massive topping pattern for most of the year. And now we are at a major point of inflection that will probably determine where we go for the next several weeks. Federal Reserve interest rate cut expectations continue to be very noisy. And it’s worth noting that the market keeps fluctuating between an almost guaranteed rate cut to a lot of questions asked about that.
And it has a major influence on the US dollar.
Keep in mind that the Bank of England almost cut interest rates last time, and the vote count only reinforced the idea that perhaps the rate cuts are coming fairly soon. Now the question is how many times will they cut? I think this is a market that probably continues to be very noisy as both central banks are in play at the moment.
Gold is firming up near $4,250 early Monday, its highest level in six weeks. Gold buyers retain control at the start of a new month amid growing calls for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) as early as next week.
Gold capitalizes on broad US Dollar weakness
Markets are now pricing in an 87% chance the Fed will cut by 25 basis points (bps) at its December monetary policy meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
With a December Fed rate cut almost a done deal, the US Dollar (USD) keeps its bearish undertone intact, after having registered its worst week in four months, favoring the Gold price upside.
Concerns over the Fed’s leadership also remain a drag on the USD, as Gold optimists aim for the $4,300 threshold.
Last week, Reuters reported that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett emerged as the frontrunner to be the next Fed chair.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there was a good chance President Donald Trump would announce his pick before Christmas.
In the day ahead, all eyes will be on the US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November, which could provide fresh hints on the health of the economy, following a spate of dated economic releases. The headline Manufacturing PMI is set to edge lower to 48.6 last month after October’s 48.7.
Deepening contraction in the American manufacturing sector will likely cement a December Fed rate cut, exacerbating the Greenback’s pain, while providing a fresh leg higher in the bright metal.
Later this week, a host of US statistics, including the ADP Employment Change, ISM Services PMI, Unemployment Claims and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, will fill in the recent data void and offer fresh directives on trading the USD and Gold heading into the Fed showdown next week.
Gold price technical analysis: Daily chart
In the daily chart, the 21-, 50-, 100- and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) all rise in bullish alignment with price above them, while the 21-day SMA at $4,095.07 offers nearby dynamic support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) prints at 65.97, reflecting firm upside momentum without venturing into overbought territory. Measured from the $4,381.17 high to the $3,885.84 low, the 78.6% retracement at $4,275.16 caps the immediate advance. A decisive close above it could extend the run.
Bias stays positive as the metal holds above its rising averages, with the 50-day SMA at $4,040.77 underpinning the trend. Holding above the 61.8% retracement at $4,191.95 indicates the prior bearish phase is losing strength. A failure to maintain that level would risk a deeper pullback, while a break higher would keep bulls in control toward the recent high.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Gold FAQs
Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government.
Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves.
Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal.
The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.
USD/JPY pulled back slightly in thin post-Thanksgiving trading, but broader fundamentals still favor the upside.
With Japan unable to tighten meaningfully and U.S. policy still supportive, the pair remains a buy-the-dip market above key support zones.
The US dollar initially rallied on Friday against the Japanese yen only to turn around and show signs of hesitation. That’s not really anything that I care about because Friday was a very thin trading session with the Americans basically stepping away from the markets as they tend to take four-day holidays for Thanksgiving. Nonetheless,
We have seen a short-term pullback as of late, and I think that is something that you need to keep in the back of your mind, recognizing that maybe the market got a little bit ahead of itself. And of course, there’s the usual machine-driven nonsense and panic about a Federal Reserve official saying one thing and then another one saying a different thing. And now we’re back to the Federal Reserve, which is going to cut rates to oblivion again.
Fundamental Divergence and Pullback Opportunities
These wild swings have become the norm in sentiment because it’s not human sentiment; it’s quantified mathematical sentiment. With that being the case, it’s a different world, but at the end of the day, you do get paid to hang on to this trade. And I still am bullish because the Federal Reserve may cut rates once or even twice, but the Bank of Japan is not going to get ultra-tight with its monetary policy anymore. Math and reality just don’t allow them to do this. With that being the case, I look at significant pullbacks as wonderful buying opportunities in a market that I have been long of for months. I have no interest in shorting this market, and every time it dips and bounces, I add to an already sizable position at this point. If we can break above the 158 yen level, then I think we start to think about 160 yen and so on.
Right now, for me at least, the floor in the market is at the 153 yen level with the 50-day EMA sitting there. If we were to break down below there, then maybe I could collect all of my profit and then rethink the situation. But until then, this is a buy on the dip scenario.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
The GBPJPY pair failed to settle above the barrier at 206.95 level, forcing it to form corrective waves to settle near 205.75 as appears in above image.
Stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, to increase the intraday negative pressures on the trading, to increase the chances of testing extra support at 205.20, where breaking it will force it to suffer extra losses by reaching 204.60 and 204.10, while renewing the bullish attempts require providing new positive close above 206.90, to ease the mission of recording the main positive targets that extend to 207.70 and 208.25.
The expected trading range for today is between 205.20 and 206.60
EUR/USD seems to have entered a consolidation slightly below 1.1600 after rising more than 0.7% in the previous week. While the technical picture suggests that the bullish bias remain intact, the risk-averse market atmosphere could make it difficult for the pair to continue to push higher in the near term.
Euro Price Last 7 Days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
-0.67%
-0.83%
-0.59%
-0.80%
-1.27%
-1.99%
-0.48%
EUR
0.67%
-0.16%
0.07%
-0.13%
-0.62%
-1.33%
0.19%
GBP
0.83%
0.16%
0.25%
0.03%
-0.45%
-1.17%
0.35%
JPY
0.59%
-0.07%
-0.25%
-0.21%
-0.74%
-1.54%
0.11%
CAD
0.80%
0.13%
-0.03%
0.21%
-0.48%
-1.20%
0.32%
AUD
1.27%
0.62%
0.45%
0.74%
0.48%
-0.71%
0.83%
NZD
1.99%
1.33%
1.17%
1.54%
1.20%
0.71%
1.54%
CHF
0.48%
-0.19%
-0.35%
-0.11%
-0.32%
-0.83%
-1.54%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
The US Dollar (USD) weakened against its rivals last week as dovish comments from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials revived expectations of a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut at the December meeting. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are pricing in about a 90% chance of a rate cut next week.
Nevertheless, the negative shift seen in risk mood helps the USD hold its ground early Monday and limits EUR/USD’s upside. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 0.6% and 0.9%. A bearish opening in Wall Street could help the USD find demand as a safe haven and cause EUR/USD to correct lower in the second half of the day.
The US economic calendar will feature the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for November.
Markets expect the headline PMI to edge slightly lower to 48.6 in November from 48.7 in October. In case this data comes in above 50 and highlights an expansion in the manufacturing sector’s business activity, the USD could gather strength with the immediate market reaction. Conversely, a disappointing print, especially if combined with a decline in the Employment Index of the PMI survey, could trigger another USD selloff and allow EUR/USD to turn north.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
The 20-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) climbs above the 100- and 200-period SMAs, with price holding above all key averages. The RSI (14) prints 54, neutral, reflecting a loss of bullish momentum in the near term.
Measured from the 1.1885 high to the 1.1472 low, the 38.2% retracement at 1.1630 acts as the next resistance level before 1.1680 (Fibonacci 50% retracement). On the downside, immediate support is seen at 1.1590 (200-period SMA) ahead of 1.1570 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement, 100-period SMA) and 1.1500 (static level, round level).
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
