• PBOC Deputy Governor expects around 8% nominal economic growth for China in 2024
• China’s State Planner Vice Chairman flags 6 trln yuan available for government investment
• People’s Bank of China dep gov says still more monetary policy room
• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says massive stimulus had negative side effects
• Swiss National Bank policy decision due Thursday, 21 March 2024 – preview
• China’s focus on the supply side to drive economic growth is creating problems in Europe
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.0942 (vs. estimate at 7.1792 )
• BoJ Governor Ueda says expects to maintain accommodative monetary policy for time being
• AUD/USD popped on the big beat for Australian February employment data
• Japan finance minister Suzuki says closely watching FX moves with a high sense of urgency
• Japan March preliminary PMIs: Manufacturing 48.2 (prior 47.2) Services 54.9 (prior 52.9)
• Australian February unemployment rate 3.7% (vs. 4.0% expected)
• Japan’s government issues an emergency earthquake warning
• Japan February trade balance -379bn yen (vs. -810bn yen expected)
• Hong Kong’s central bank follows the Fed, leaves base rate unchanged at 5.75%, es expected
• Japan Reuters Tankan for March shows solid improvement for Manufacturing and Services
• Fed ‘insider’ Timiraos says Fed’s outlook has not changed since December: 3 cuts in ’24
• Gold price surging higher in thin trade
• Goldman Sachs have 3 three takeaways from Powell’s press conference
• Australian March preliminary PMIs show manufacturing lower on the month & services higher
• New Zealand Q4 2023 GDP -0.1% q/q (vs. +0.1% expected)
• ICYMI: European Central Bank President Lagarde emphasizes again decisions data dependent
• FOMC June rate cut probability back up to around 70%
• Record closes for the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ indices
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap: Dots continue to show 75 bps in cuts this year, risk pops
• Trade ideas thread – Thursday, 21 March, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

It
was an active post-FOMC/Powell session in Asia with plenty of news
and data flow, and plenty of FX movement.

We
kicked off with Q4 GDP from New Zealand, with the second consecutive
quarter of contraction for the economy and thus a ‘technical’
recession. A ‘technical’ recession is a recession, commonly
defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. NZD/USD
dipped a little on the data release but soon bounced back as the US
dollar continued its down draft after the Fed decision. More on the
USD losses to come a little further down in this wrap.

Data
flow from Japan was the next set of notable items. The monthly
Reuters Tankan survey, which serves as a key indicator for the Bank
of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey, due on April 1, showed that
confidence
at big Japanese companies rebounded to a three-month high in March,
and the service-sector mood rose to a seven-month high.

Japanese
February trade data followed soon after; exports
grew for a third consecutive month on the back of shipments of
vehicles. In
less bright news imports missed expectations. More in the bullets
above.

On
the session USD/JPY fell away, below its US-time lows and to under
150.50 before seeing some sideways movement around 150.40. Later in
the session we had verbal intervention comments from Finance Minister Suzuki and Chief Cabinet Secretary Hayashi. More on these in the
bullets above, along with remarks from Bank of Japan Governor Ueda,
who added some detail to the reasoning behind the Bank’s tightening
move earlier in the week.

From
Australia today was another stunning employment report. The
unemployment rate plunged to 3.7% from the previous month’s 4.1%
(admittedly there was a small drop in participation) with 116K jobs
added. The
78,200 rise
in
full-time employment
was the most in 11 months. The Australian dollar and bond yields
jumped. Further
support for AUD came from an ANZ forecast for iron ore to trade
between USD 90-110/ton for the remainder of 2024.

From
China we saw the People’s Bank of China injecting
the least
amount
of funds through reverse repos in open market operations since August
11, 2023. Later
was a press conference including the PBoC and State Planner (the
National Development and Reform Commission of the People’s Republic
of China (NDRC)). Remarks from PBOC and NDRC officials were
supportive and upbeat on the economy, with a PBOC Deputy Governor
saying he expects around 8% nominal economic growth for China in
2024. Maybe he is overstating expectations because 8% nominal would
be a huge win for China. Oil traders might like to pay attention to
this also, it implies a huge demand for oil this year from China.
Indeed, after dribbling lower the oil price found some stability here
during the session.

Gold
rose. Regional equities rose also, following the strong lead from Wall Street.

As
mentioned earlier the US dollar lost further ground during the day,
adding to its US-time fall.