GBP/JPY Forecast Video for 03.03.23

British Pound vs Japanese Yen Technical Analysis

The British pound has initially fallen against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Thursday, as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior in this market. We had recently seen the British pound spike well above the ¥165 level, only to sell off quite drastically. That being said, the reality is that the British pound is not the major force in this market. The big driver of where everything is going is more likely than not going to remain the Japanese yen as the Bank of Japan continues its yield curve control policy. Remember, the Japanese are trying to keep the 10 year yield at 50 basis points or lower, meaning that they are printing yen in order to buy those bonds.

The Bank of Japan continues to be one of the few central banks around the world with loose monetary policy, and therefore a lot of traders will continue to beat up on the Japanese yen. The shooting star that formed on Tuesday should be thought of as major resistance, but it certainly looks as if this pair is going to do everything it can to test that area. It’s not a huge surprise we sold off from where we did, because we touched the top of the huge wipeout candlestick from last year.

If we do pull back from here, I believe that the 200-Day EMA which currently sits near the ¥162 EMA, should end up being a nice area of support. Anything below there gets interesting, but at this point it does not look like the Japanese yen is suddenly going to strengthen, and it would almost certainly would need to see yields drop around the world in order for that to happen. Remember, as those yields continue to rise in other markets, it puts more bearish pressure on Japanese bonds, driving yields higher, which means that the central bank has to step in and start buying yet again. It’s a bit of a vicious feedback loop that the Japanese find themselves in at the moment. Because of this, I remain bullish of the market.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

This article was originally posted on FX Empire

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