GBP/JPY eyes higher moves, supported by rate differentials. Holding firm at ¥191, with potential dip to ¥189 EMA. Long-term bullish, targeting ¥195; BoJ unlikely to hike rates further.

• The British pound has gone back and forth during the trading session on Friday as it looks like we continue to hang around the ¥191 level.
• All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of upward momentum over the longer term, and of course you have a situation where the interest rate differential is wide enough to drive a truck through, so it does make a lot of sense to be holding on to this pair.

If we do pull back from here, we could see the market go looking to the 50-Day EMA underneath, which is closer to the ¥189 level. All things being equal, I think there are plenty of buyers between here and there, so I do think that’s as low as this pair falls anytime soon. After all, the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates to a paltry 0.1%, and at this point in time is very unlikely to be able to raise interest rates any further. Because of this, this is a situation where the trend will continue to go much higher.

I continue to buy dips in all of the yen related pairs, as we had seen so many other currencies beat up on the Japanese yen, and the British pound will be any different. In fact, if the British pound starts to rise against the US dollar as well, which it looks like it could very well do so, that will put further pressure on this pair to the upside. You get paid quite nicely at the end of every day to hang on to this pair, and therefore the interest rates continue to look attractive for longer-term trades.

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In general, I do believe that we reach the highs again, and then eventually go looking to the ¥195 level. The ¥195 level is just simply yet the next large, round, psychologically significant figure overall. As far as selling is concerned, I have no interest in trying to short this market, because quite frankly I’m not paying the interest at the end of every day to own the paltry Japanese yen.

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