Gold’s technical outlook has weakened considerably following its recent breakdown below US$4,000.

Source: Tradingview

After failing to sustain its recovery during October, XAU/USD experienced a sharp decline towards US$3,870 on 30 October.

Monday’s rebound towards US$3,900 suggests that short-term selling pressure may be easing.

However, the recovery has not yet provided convincing evidence of a sustained bullish reversal.

Bullish Scenario: Gold Rebounds Towards US$4,000

Following Friday’s substantial decline, gold may experience a technical rebound as short-term traders cover bearish positions and bargain-hunting interest emerges.

If XAU/USD holds above US$3,900, the first potential recovery targets lie around US$3,920 and US$3,950.

A decisive move above US$3,950 could encourage further buying towards the US$4,000 psychological level.

However, US$4,000 is now an important resistance area following the recent breakdown.

A sustained recovery above this threshold would be needed to provide stronger evidence that bearish momentum is weakening.

Until then, any rally may remain vulnerable to renewed selling pressure.

Bearish Scenario: Gold Fails to Reclaim US$4,000

If gold struggles to break above US$3,950–4,000, sellers may regain control.

A decline below US$3,900 could lead to another test of the recent low near US$3,870.

If that level fails to hold, attention may shift towards US$3,800.

A sustained break below US$3,800 could expose the lower support region around US$3,670.

The broader bearish scenario could remain relevant into late November or early December if inflation expectations remain elevated and financial market conditions continue to tighten.

Nevertheless, these are conditional technical scenarios rather than guaranteed price targets.