China kept buying. Premiums held steady and investment demand stayed intact on weakness. Chinese buyers have been accumulating on dips consistently for weeks. At current prices that is not enough to reverse the decline. It keeps the physical market from falling apart underneath the rate selling. If gold trades back toward the September low, the steady Chinese accumulation starts to count for more. Right now it is a floor in search of a reason and the rate trade is not providing one.

What to Watch

Central bank speakers and inflation data this week are the catalyst. Kashkari called it broad Sunday. If the rest of the Fed follows that line there is nothing for gold to trade except the next lower high. The next data print either supports the hawks or gives the doves room to push back. Oil coming down only matters if yields come down after it and Monday said they are not interested. India stepping aside strips physical support during the correction. China buying every dip keeps a bid underneath but Chinese premiums alone are not going to reverse a decline running across three central banks.

Sellers own the chart below $4,384.59 and $4,405.59 with the main trend down and the lower high at $4,510.93 confirmed. Below $4,319.61, sellers have a path through the 50-day moving average at $4,295.83 and $4,282.62 into the $4,235.17 to $4,230.51 zone.

Gold has to clear $4,384.59 and then deal with $4,405.59 to put the $4,466.14 to $4,481.78 zone in play. The lower high at $4,510.93 and the 200-day at $4,541.86 both have to break to turn the trend.

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