Goldman Sachs has revised its oil price forecasts upward amid escalating risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and potential supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf.

Operative Information Center-OMM reports that the adjustment was highlighted in a recent Bloomberg analysis. The investment bank now expects Brent crude to average $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, a significant increase from its previous estimate of $80 per barrel.

According to the bank’s analysts, the shift is primarily driven by a possible sharp decrease in oil supply from the Persian Gulf region. Goldman Sachs suggests that regional exports may not fully recover until the end of June. Furthermore, the bank projects a substantial supply deficit of approximately 9.6 million barrels per day in the global market during the current quarter, warning of potential negative impacts on the global economy if prices continue to climb.

The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints, with approximately one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption passing through it daily. Any geopolitical instability in this region traditionally leads to volatility in global energy markets. For Azerbaijan, a significant exporter of crude oil and natural gas, fluctuations in global oil prices directly influence state revenues and the implementation of large-scale reconstruction projects in the liberated territories of Garabagh and East Zangezur.