At 16:14 GMT, Natural Gas Futures are trading $3.447, down $0.023 or -0.66%.

Can Natural Gas Hold Its Gains Despite Low Weather Demand?

Mild early-fall temperatures are weighing on national demand. According to NatGasWeather, the northern two-thirds of the U.S. are experiencing unseasonably warm conditions, with highs in the upper 60s to 80s. The South remains warmer, reaching into the 90s in some areas. While this setup limits Heating Degree Days, Cooling Degree Days are running slightly above average. Still, overall U.S. demand remains light for the first week of October.

However, demand is not quite as weak as models had indicated late last week, partially supporting the price recovery. Traders are pricing in a more balanced outlook, with short-covering likely contributing to the rally after several weeks of choppy trade.

Will the U.S. Government Shutdown Disrupt Energy Market Data?

A new risk emerged Wednesday as a partial U.S. government shutdown began, following a standoff between former President Trump’s allies and Senate Democrats. While the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is expected to release its weekly natural gas storage report on schedule, traders remain on alert for possible delays in upcoming data that could cloud market signals and create volatility.

In the meantime, traders are awaiting fresh EIA inventory data, after last week’s report showed a build of +75 Bcf — just above expectations but still slightly below the 5-year average. Inventories remain well supplied, sitting +6.1% above seasonal norms.

Is Colder Weather on the Horizon Enough to Sustain the Rally?

Weather models are starting to shift, with forecasts from Atmospheric G2 suggesting cooler trends in the West between October 6–10, and a broader cool risk developing nationwide for October 10–14. This potential boost to heating demand may offer further upside if confirmed.