200-Day Line at 2.46 is Next Target

The next target zone is the 200-Day MA at 2.46. It is strengthened by the 50% retracement, which marks the same price. Natural gas is well on its way to that target, and it continues to have a good chance of being reached before resistance stops the ascent, possibly leading to a pullback. Further, the 50-Week MA (not shown) is slightly above the 200-Day line at 2.49. If the completion of the measured move at today’s high doesn’t end the ascent, a 2.46 to 2.48 target zone should be next on the agenda.

First Approach to 200-Day Line Could See Strong Resistance

It is common for price to be rejected from a long-term moving average the first time it is approached after being away from it for a while. Following the January 25 internal swing high natural gas dropped below the 200-Day line and accelerated to the downside.

The current rally is the first attempt since then to test the 200-Day line as resistance. However, if natural gas manages to break through the 200-Day line and the 50-Week line, and then stays above them, it would next be heading towards the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 2.68. Depending on when reached, the upper declining blue dashed channel line may have an impact as the channel line and 61.8% level may be near each other.

Near-term Support at 2.31

If instead of continuing to ascend, today’s high leads to a retracement, the first sign of it would be on a drop below today’s low of 2.31. The prior swing low and 38.2% retracement at 2.24 would the be the next lower possible support zone. Other price levels will be looked at in the future if the pullback scenario unfolds.

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