The US dollar is retracing on most fronts today but the New Zealand dollar is an exception. NZD/USD remains within striking distance of a four-month low and below recent support.

Two days of heavy selling on Thursday and Friday broke through the 2024 low and it’s found little buying interest down here.

That’s a bad sign going forward for the only G10 currency that can compete with the US dollar on rate differentials.

The RBNZ cash rate is at 5.50% and the market is pricing in 73 bps in cuts this year. The housing market in New Zealand has remained resilient and it hasn’t gotten a boost from improving global risk appetite and commodity prices.

As for the chart, it’s not a pretty one. The lack of bounce today is ominous and there isn’t much support until 0.5850, though a close today above 0.6000 might encourage some more-optimistic bulls.