Oil prices have fallen back from recent highs, with OIL/USD trading near $90.54 after reaching $95.32 earlier this week. However, Rabobank believes the market is underestimating the severity of the ongoing energy supply disruption.

The bank now expects the Strait of Hormuz to remain effectively closed through the summer, with September viewed as the earliest realistic point for a broader reopening and normalisation of flows.

“We remain skeptical about the futures market’s ability to price the risk of disruption that has occurred in the physical energy markets.”

Rabobank argues that strategic petroleum reserve releases and weaker demand are masking a global supply deficit.

“The world is facing a deficit of more than 11 million barrels per day and we see current prices as misleading.”

The bank is particularly concerned about diesel markets, warning that shortages could become severe during the third quarter.

“Between July and September, our scenario analysis shows that diesel and jet fuel markets will be in crisis levels of shortage in several locations.”

According to Rabobank, the market remains too complacent about the length of the disruption and the time required to restore normal supply chains once a deal is eventually reached.

Brent Oil Forecast: $140 Peak Still Possible

Rabobank’s central scenario sees Brent crude rising substantially if disruptions persist.

“Brent crude reaches approximately $140 at its peak and sustains above $120 for an extended period in August.”

As a result, the bank has lifted its Q3 2026 Brent forecast to an average of $120 per barrel, while also raising its 2027 forecasts.

Even if the Strait reopens later this year, Rabobank expects shipping bottlenecks, refinery constraints and lost production capacity to keep energy markets tight well into 2027.

Explore the latest platinum price insights for Davanagere. As of now, platinum trades at
₹0 per 10g, ₹0 per 100g, and ₹0 per kg. In
June, prices shifted significantly. For 100g, the max was
₹5,95,300, and the min was ₹0. The

1kg rate fluctuated between ₹0 and
₹59,53,000.

Platinum pricing depends on mining output, worldwide demand, and political factors.
Heavy industrial use, particularly in automotive and electronic sectors, creates
significant market pull. Exchange rate shifts—most notably the US dollar—along with
inflation and central bank policies, directly affect the metal’s financial performance.

• The silver market rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Thursday as the interest rate market has pulled back just a touch in the United States.
• Rates dropping of course does help silver but all things being equal this is a market that will continue to see a lot of back-and-forth behavior, and I also recognize that this is a market that is bouncing around between the $70 level underneath and the $80 level above.

It’s worth noting that the 50-day EMA is also sitting right at the $77.25 level offering a little bit of a short-term barrier as well. That being said one of the biggest problems that the silver market will have is that the bond market will probably be very quiet as well mainly due to the fact that we have the jobs number in America coming out on Friday.

Bond Market Awaits Jobs Numbers

That should continue to be a major issue, and I think all things being equal we probably are waiting to see how the bond market reacts to the jobs numbers because of course it will have such a major influence on a non-yielding asset such as silver.

Ultimately this is a market that I think will continue to be noisy but if we can break out of this $10 range it opens up the possibility of a move to the $90 level or possibly the $60 level based on a breakout. As things stand right now though we’re just held hostage by the bond market which of course continues to watch the Middle East and tomorrow we’ll be watching jobs.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire