Updated: 23.12.2025 — 5:04

Natural gas markets are closing in on year-end with a familiar mix of winter weather risk, record LNG pull, and stubbornly strong production—but on Tuesday, December 23, 2025, the bullish forces briefly overwhelmed the bears.

In the U.S., Henry Hub front-month futures surged into the mid-$4s per million British thermal units (mmBtu), after trading swung from an early single-digit gain to a double-digit move later in the day. Reuters pricing showed the front month around $4.41/mmBtu on the session, up sharply on the day with an intraday range roughly $3.94–$4.45. ^[1]

Across the Atlantic, benchmark Dutch TTF gas eased below €28/MWh in thin pre-holiday trading, with Norway and LNG supply cushioning the market even as temperatures are expected to turn colder in parts of Europe. ^[2]

Below is a detailed roundup of the key news, forecasts, and market analysis shaping natural gas on 23.12.2025—and the catalysts traders are watching next.

U.S. natural gas: a volatile rally fueled by LNG demand and shifting weather signals

Morning move: futures rise on record LNG feedgas and higher near-term demand estimates

Early Tuesday, U.S. natural gas futures pushed higher as flows to LNG export plants hit fresh highs and forecasters upgraded the next two weeks’ demand outlook.

Reuters reporting cited record-level feedgas flows and an improved demand projection from LSEG. In morning trade, the January NYMEX contract was up around 4% and trading near $4.105/mmBtu, supported by expectations that gas demand (including exports) could rise from roughly 127.9 bcfd this week to about 136.0 bcfd over the next two weeks. ^[3]

That demand uplift matters because the U.S. gas market is increasingly balanced at the margin by export pull, not just domestic heating loads.

Later momentum: the rally accelerates as LNG sets a floor and “cold risk” returns

Later in the session, market commentary pointed to a classic year-end dynamic: thinner liquidity, more stop-driven moves, and fast-changing weather runs.

A separate market analysis described a late-day surge, with January futures trading around $4.370/mmBtu and up more than 10% at one point, as record LNG demand collided with colder revisions in parts of the U.S. outlook. ^[4]

While forecasts still include warmer-than-normal periods (a bearish signal for heating demand), traders are increasingly sensitive to any model shift that reintroduces cold into the highly populated U.S. East—because that’s where residential and commercial demand can spike quickly.

Record LNG feedgas is the headline driver—and it’s not just “strong,” it’s structural

The most important U.S. gas storyline on December 23 is simple: LNG export demand remains near full throttle.

Reuters-linked reporting said LNG feedgas was on track to reach about 18.6 bcfd on Tuesday (a record area), supported by higher intake at major facilities including Cameron, Freeport, and Calcasieu Pass. ^[5]

This isn’t a short-term quirk. The EIA’s most recent weekly market update highlighted just how large U.S. LNG logistics have become, noting that 33 LNG vessels departed U.S. ports in a single week (Dec. 11–17) with a combined carrying capacity of 126 Bcf. ^[6]

Why it matters for price: When LNG feedgas stays elevated, it reduces the market’s ability to “relax” even during mild weather breaks—because export terminals keep pulling molecules regardless of whether Chicago or New York is having a warm spell.

Production is also at (or near) record highs—keeping the rally on a tight leash

Even as prices spiked Tuesday, the supply side continues to impose a ceiling on sustained upside.

Reuters-cited figures put Lower 48 output around 111.1 bcfd in December—an all-time high area—illustrating that U.S. producers and infrastructure are still delivering large volumes into the system. ^[7]

That supply strength is showing up in storage resilience as well:

• The EIA reported working gas in storage at 3,579 Bcf (week ending Dec. 12), after net withdrawals of 167 Bcf. Inventories were slightly above the five-year average and slightly below last year at that point. ^[8]

This combination—very strong exports and very strong production—is why the market can rally sharply on weather risk, but also why those rallies can struggle to hold if the cold fails to materialize.

Europe: TTF slips below €28/MWh as Norway and LNG offset cold-weather demand risk

European gas prices stayed relatively contained on December 23, even as the market monitored colder conditions.

A Reuters-sourced European market report showed:

• Dutch TTF front-month down to about €27.95/MWh (around $9.61/mmBtu) by mid-morning,
• UK day-ahead slightly lower,
• trading described as narrow-range and thin ahead of the Christmas holiday. ^[9]

Europe’s storage: still comfortable, but trending lower into winter

The same report pegged EU storage at 67.24% full, a key benchmark because Europe’s winter price sensitivity rises sharply when inventories fall. ^[10]

An Engie market note cited in the report suggested fundamentals were currently bearish, but warned that risk factors—particularly on the U.S. supply side—could still flip sentiment if prices keep falling. ^[11]

And with Europe entering winter with lower storage than recent years, an S&P Global LNG analyst quoted in the report said buyers may be compelled to increase LNG procurement in January and February. ^[12]

Norway supply: a key stabilizer for Europe

Norway remains Europe’s largest natural gas supplier, and on December 23 Reuters reported that Norwegian oil and gas output in November beat official forecasts, with gas output slightly down year-on-year but above forecast. ^[13]

Steady Norwegian flows—plus LNG arrivals—help explain why TTF can remain subdued even with winter weather risk in the background.

Middle East supply shock: Iraq says Iranian gas supplies halted

One of the most consequential geopolitical gas headlines on December 23 came from Iraq.

Reuters reported that Iraq’s electricity ministry said gas supplies from Iran have been halted, and the disruption knocked an estimated 4,000–4,500 megawatts out of Iraq’s power system. ^[14]

While this is primarily a regional power-generation story (and not a direct “global price setter” like U.S. LNG or TTF), it underscores how quickly gas-linked power systems can become fragile when pipeline supplies are interrupted—especially in peak-demand periods.

Global LNG demand: Myanmar’s return adds a new (small but notable) source of import demand

In Asia, Reuters reported Myanmar is expected to resume LNG imports next year after receiving a partial cargo last month—ending a more than four-year hiatus. ^[15]

Key details from the report:

• Myanmar is projected to import about 0.4 million tons of LNG in 2026, according to Kpler,
• tied to restarted or upgraded LNG-to-power projects totaling around 500 MW. ^[16]

In pure volume terms, Myanmar is not big enough to move global LNG pricing alone—but it’s another sign that LNG-to-power can re-emerge quickly when domestic gas declines or power shortages bite.

Policy and industry signals: rigs, regulation, and power-market shifts

U.S. drilling: rig counts edge up, but the bigger signal is the longer-term price incentive

Reuters reported that U.S. drillers added rigs for the first time in three weeks, with the total rig count rising to 545, while gas rigs held at 127. ^[17]

The same report highlighted that the EIA expects natural gas production to grow, helped by a sharp rebound in spot prices during 2025—an incentive that can translate into more drilling activity if producers believe higher prices will stick. ^[18]

Australia: new gas reservation scheme targets domestic supply from 2027

In another major policy development dated December 23, reporting in Australia said the government’s new gas reservation scheme will require LNG exporters from 2027 to reserve 15–25% of output for domestic use (roughly 200–350 petajoules annually), with analysts flagging uneven impacts across exporters. ^[19]

This is a longer-dated policy lever, but markets pay attention because restrictions on export flexibility can reshape contract behavior, upstream investment decisions, and eventually regional LNG availability.

Offshore wind pause: potential knock-on effect for U.S. gas-fired power

Reuters-linked reporting also noted that the Trump administration suspended leases for several large offshore wind projects under construction off the U.S. East Coast—an action that could increase reliance on gas-fired generation if renewable build-out slows. ^[20]

For natural gas, the key takeaway is not “one project,” but the direction of travel: power-sector demand can shift materially if policy changes alter the generation mix.

Forecast and outlook: what traders are watching next

Here are the market indicators most likely to set direction after the December 23 move:

1) Weather models and “late-January cold risk”

• The near-term forecast still includes warmer-than-normal stretches, but traders are reacting to any incremental shift colder in major demand centers—especially the U.S. East. ^[21]

2) LNG feedgas: can flows stay near 18.6 bcfd?

• With LNG feedgas at record levels, even small disruptions (maintenance, commissioning changes, pipeline constraints) can move price expectations quickly. ^[22]

3) Storage trajectory

• U.S. storage remains close to the historical norm (EIA: 3,579 Bcf as of Dec. 12), which keeps the market sensitive to whether upcoming withdrawals land above or below seasonal averages. ^[23]

4) Europe’s storage drawdown pace

• European storage around 67% is not “alarm level,” but the speed of winter drawdowns—combined with Norway flows—will shape TTF volatility into January and February. ^[24]

5) 2026 LNG supply wave and pricing pressure

Looking beyond the immediate weather/LNG headlines, longer-horizon analysis still points to a potential loosening of global LNG balances in 2026 as new supply ramps—an anchor that can temper longer-dated price expectations even when near-term volatility spikes. ^[25]

Bottom line

Natural gas on 23.12.2025 was a textbook example of a market being pulled in opposite directions:

• Bullish: record LNG feedgas and periodic cold-weather risk
• Bearish: record U.S. production and storage still near normal
• Europe: capped by steady Norway/LNG supply despite winter demand
• Geopolitics: localized disruptions (Iraq/Iran) reinforcing energy security concerns without immediately repricing global benchmarks

For now, the market’s center of gravity remains LNG: as long as U.S. export pull stays near record levels, even mild weather can have a harder time pushing prices down for long—but with production this strong, sustaining rallies still requires the weather to cooperate. ^[26]

References

1. jp.reuters.com, 2. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 3. www.bairdmaritime.com, 4. www.fxempire.com, 5. www.bairdmaritime.com, 6. www.eia.gov, 7. www.bairdmaritime.com, 8. www.eia.gov, 9. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 10. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 11. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 12. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. www.reuters.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.theaustralian.com.au, 20. www.bairdmaritime.com, 21. www.bairdmaritime.com, 22. www.bairdmaritime.com, 23. www.eia.gov, 24. www.hellenicshippingnews.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.bairdmaritime.com

Silver is ending December 23, 2025 with a bang. The white metal has pushed through the long-watched $70-per-ounce threshold for the first time and extended the rally into fresh record territory above $71, powered by a potent mix of industrial demand, investment buying, tighter inventories, a softer U.S. dollar, and rate-cut expectations. ^[1]

Around the late New York session—closest available spot snapshots ahead of this 5:03 PM ET update—major pricing feeds showed spot silver near $71.4–$71.5/oz, up more than 3% on the day, after trading a wide intraday range. ^[2]

Silver price today: the latest spot levels and today’s trading range

In the latest visible spot snapshots on Tuesday:

• Investing.com showed XAG/USD at about $71.5025, up +3.53%, with a day’s range of $68.8445–$71.5815. ^[3]
• Kitco listed spot silver around $71.42 bid / $71.54 ask, up +3.53%, with an intraday low near $68.79 and high near $71.63. ^[4]

Those late-session levels followed a dramatic intraday progression that traders will remember: silver was already printing records in early trade, then breached $70, and later accelerated to new highs as the day unfolded. ^[5]

What happened on Dec 23: silver crosses $70 and rewrites the record book

Silver’s surge wasn’t a single spike—it was a day-long storyline:

• Early headline move: Reuters reported spot silver hitting a fresh record around $69.59/oz early Tuesday. ^[6]
• The psychological break: By mid-day in Europe, Reuters said silver had scaled $70, trading around $70.06 after hitting about $70.18—a major “round number” breakout that tends to draw momentum flows. ^[7]
• Late-day extension: In the U.S. session, Reuters later reported silver around $71.22, after touching a new record near $71.49. ^[8]

In other words, the market didn’t just test $70—it cleared it, then built above it, which is often what separates a “headline pop” from a more durable trend.

Why silver is rallying: the big drivers behind today’s move

Tuesday’s rally is being explained by a rare alignment of bullish inputs—some structural, some macro, and some driven by year-end positioning.

1) Supply deficit meets rising industrial demand

Reuters quoted metals strategist Peter Grant (Zaner Metals) pointing to a market that has been in deficit for five years, with increasing industrial demand adding to the bid. ^[9]

That matters because silver is not only a precious metal—it’s also a critical industrial input used across electronics and energy-related applications. When investors decide they want “hard-asset protection” at the same time industry needs supply, the squeeze can become self-reinforcing.

2) Investment demand and tightening inventories

Reuters also highlighted strong industrial and investment demand alongside tightening inventories as key supports. ^[10]

This is the kind of backdrop that can turn dips into quick rebounds: if the market believes available supply is shrinking, sellers become more cautious, and buyers become more aggressive on pullbacks.

3) Rate-cut expectations and a weaker U.S. dollar

Precious metals often respond to shifts in real yields and the U.S. dollar. Reuters noted that expectations of further U.S. rate cuts were helping propel the complex, and that a weaker dollar makes dollar-priced metals more attractive for overseas buyers. ^[11]

4) Geopolitical tensions add a “safe-haven” layer

Silver doesn’t always trade like pure “risk-off” gold—but in big macro moments, it can pick up a safety bid too. Reuters linked today’s move to simmering geopolitical tensions and highlighted fresh U.S.–Venezuela friction as part of the broader risk backdrop feeding safe-haven demand. ^[12]

Silver price forecast: what analysts are saying now

With silver printing record highs, the conversation has quickly shifted from “can it break $70?” to “how far can this run—and how violent could the pullbacks be?”

The $75 target enters the mainstream

Reuters reported that silver’s next target is $75/oz, according to Peter Grant—while cautioning that year-end profit-taking could trigger a pullback. ^[13]

That “$75” level is now emerging as a widely repeated upside reference point because it sits above today’s breakout zone and gives the rally a clear, simple target for momentum traders.

Overbought signals are flashing—but dips may be bought

FXStreet’s technical view on Dec 23 acknowledged that silver remains in a strong uptrend, but flagged overbought RSI conditions as a reason bulls may pause before adding fresh risk. Importantly, FXStreet added that any meaningful corrective drop could still be seen as a buying opportunity, with downside potentially limited. ^[14]

Holiday liquidity and profit-taking risk is real

FXEmpire struck a more cautious near-term tone, noting silver hit a record around $70.68 before pulling back on profit-taking into the holiday period. FXEmpire also tied some pressure to strong U.S. GDP data (4.3%) and rising Treasury yields, which can reduce appetite for non-yielding metals if markets rethink how quickly the Fed will cut. ^[15]

Taken together, the day’s forecasts paint a fairly classic late-year setup:

• Trend is up and momentum is strong
• But liquidity is thinner
• So pullbacks can be sharp—even inside a bull move

Key silver levels to watch after the $70 breakout

Even for readers who don’t trade, a few technical “zones” matter because they often influence headlines, investor psychology, and the pace of moves:

• $70.00: The psychological breakout level now flipped into a major reference point. Reuters explicitly framed today as silver hitting $70 “for the first time.” ^[16]
• $71.49–$71.63 area: Today’s record-zone, with Reuters noting a peak near $71.49 and major spot feeds showing session highs in the low $71.6s. ^[17]
• $75.00: The next “headline target,” now being cited by analysts. ^[18]

If silver remains above $70 on follow-through days, the narrative stays “breakout and hold.” If it slips back below, the narrative can quickly turn into “failed breakout,” even if the bigger trend remains bullish.

The bigger picture: silver’s 2025 surge and what it could mean for 2026

Reuters noted silver is up dramatically year-to-date—147% in 2025 in its late-day report—underscoring just how powerful this move has been. ^[19]

That scale of annual gain is why forecasts have become more polarized:

• Bulls see structural tightness (deficits + industrial pull) and believe silver can keep climbing as macro conditions ease. ^[20]
• Skeptics point to crowded positioning and the tendency for silver to experience fast corrections, especially when macro data pushes yields higher or when year-end positioning flips. ^[21]

What to watch next: the catalysts that could move silver after today

With Christmas-week liquidity in play, a handful of inputs could have an outsized impact on silver pricing in the next sessions:

• U.S. dollar direction (a weaker dollar has been supportive). ^[22]
• Treasury yields and rate-cut expectations (especially if data surprises shift the Fed path). ^[23]
• Geopolitical headlines that feed safe-haven flows. ^[24]
• Whether silver holds above $70 after the first breakout day. ^[25]

Bottom line (Dec 23, 2025): Silver’s breakout above $70 has turned into a full-throttle record run above $71, with analysts now openly discussing $75—but multiple research notes warn that thin holiday trading and profit-taking could still produce sudden pullbacks even inside a bullish trend. ^[26]

References

1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.kitco.com, 3. www.investing.com, 4. www.kitco.com, 5. www.reuters.com, 6. www.reuters.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.reuters.com, 9. www.reuters.com, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.reuters.com, 12. www.reuters.com, 13. www.reuters.com, 14. www.fxstreet.com, 15. www.fxempire.com, 16. www.reuters.com, 17. www.reuters.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. www.reuters.com, 20. www.reuters.com, 21. www.fxempire.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.fxempire.com, 24. www.reuters.com, 25. www.reuters.com, 26. www.reuters.com