Oil prices today are already sitting at a dangerous level for the global economy. WTI crude oil (CL00) trades near $99.30, while Brent crude futures (BZC00) hover around $99.29 per barrel. Both benchmarks have surged toward the psychological $100 level as the Middle East conflict intensifies.
The latest flashpoint is Iran’s Kharg Island, a small coral island in the northern Persian Gulf, roughly 15 miles off Iran’s mainland coast. Despite its size, the island is the single most important export hub in Iran’s oil industry. Nearly 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports pass through Kharg Island, making it a vital artery for global energy markets.
The facility can load roughly 7 million barrels of oil per day onto tankers and has storage capacity of around 30 million barrels. Pipelines carry crude from Iran’s giant fields — Ahvaz, Marun, and Gachsaran — directly to the island’s loading terminals.
Iran currently produces about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil daily and roughly 1.3 million barrels of condensate and liquids, accounting for about 4.5% of global oil supply. Most of that oil moves through Kharg Island before tankers sail through the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s most important oil shipping lane.
Trump said American forces had “totally obliterated every military target” on Kharg Island, but deliberately chose not to strike the oil infrastructure — at least for now. Targets included air defences, a naval base, and airport facilities, with Iranian state media confirming more than 15 explosions but no damage to oil infrastructure.
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With about 20% of global oil and gas shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz, any military escalation involving Kharg Island could send shockwaves through global energy markets. Analysts say a direct strike on the island’s oil infrastructure could trigger one of the biggest oil price spikes in years, pushing Brent crude and WTI crude futures well above $100 per barrel.
Why Kharg Island is the choke point of Iran’s oil exports and a major driver of global oil prices today
Energy analysts often describe Kharg Island as the choke point of Iran’s oil export system. That label reflects the island’s extraordinary role in the country’s energy economy. Every day, millions of barrels of crude flow through pipelines from Iran’s largest oil fields to massive storage tanks on the island. Tankers dock along long jetties that extend into deep water, allowing super tankers to load quickly and transport crude to Asia and global markets.
Satellite tracking services report that oil tankers have been loading almost continuously at Kharg Island since the war began. In the weeks before the latest military strikes, Iran reportedly increased exports sharply, attempting to move as much oil as possible before potential disruptions.
Current estimates suggest around 18 million barrels of crude are stored on the island, ready to be shipped.
Because almost all Iranian exports depend on this facility, destroying or disabling it could immediately halt most Iranian oil exports. For global markets, the result would be a sudden supply shock.
Even though Iran represents roughly 4–5% of global oil supply, losing those barrels would tighten an already fragile market.
US strikes on Iran and Kharg Island tensions: How oil prices today reacted in Brent crude and WTI futures
Oil markets react quickly to geopolitical shocks. The latest US and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy and military sites have already triggered a sharp response.
After the attacks, Brent crude futures surged above $103 per barrel, while WTI crude oil jumped above $101, reaching the highest levels since mid-2022.
Even though the recent US bombing raids targeted military facilities on Kharg Island, officials confirmed that oil infrastructure and export terminals were not hit. However, the threat remains very real.
President Donald Trump warned that the US could strike Iran’s oil infrastructure if Tehran continues blocking ships through the Strait of Hormuz. That warning alone has injected enormous uncertainty into energy markets.
Oil traders know that Kharg Island represents a critical vulnerability in Iran’s energy system. If its export terminals were destroyed or severely damaged, global oil supply could tighten dramatically.
That risk explains why oil prices today remain extremely sensitive to every development in the Middle East conflict.
Strait of Hormuz crisis and Iran conflict: Why global oil prices today face a major supply shock risk
The Kharg Island crisis cannot be separated from the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the main gateway for oil shipments from the Middle East to global markets.
Under normal conditions, roughly 20% of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows through this narrow maritime corridor. The route connects major producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Iran with customers across Asia, Europe, and the United States.
However, since the conflict escalated, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has slowed dramatically, with many tankers avoiding the region due to security risks.
If Iran continues threatening or blocking vessels, the market could lose access to millions of barrels per day of crude supply.
Energy strategists warn that the combination of Strait of Hormuz disruption and potential damage to Kharg Island could create one of the most severe oil supply crises in recent history.
In such a scenario, analysts believe oil prices could surge far beyond $120 per barrel, particularly if regional energy infrastructure becomes a target.
Oil price forecast: Could Brent crude and WTI oil prices surge above $120 if Kharg Island is attacked?
The biggest question facing energy markets today is simple: what happens if Kharg Island’s oil facilities are directly attacked?
Many analysts believe the price impact could be dramatic. Destroying the island’s export infrastructure would effectively cut off Iran’s main oil revenue stream and remove millions of barrels from global supply.
Some forecasts suggest oil prices could spike above $120 per barrel in the short term. In a worst-case scenario involving broader regional escalation, crude prices could climb even higher.
Rebuilding Kharg Island’s oil facilities would not be easy either. Experts estimate repairs could take many months or even more than a year, especially because international sanctions limit Iran’s access to technology, funding, and engineering support.
That means any disruption could have long-lasting consequences for global oil supply.
Global oil market outlook: Why Kharg Island could decide the next move in oil prices today
Right now, the global oil market is watching one small island in the Persian Gulf.
Kharg Island processes roughly 90% of Iran’s oil exports, making it one of the most important energy hubs in the Middle East. With Brent crude and WTI crude already trading near $100, the threat to this facility has become one of the biggest risks facing global markets.
If Kharg Island remains operational, oil prices may stabilize as traders wait for geopolitical clarity. But if the conflict escalates and the island’s oil infrastructure becomes a target, the world could face a major supply shock.
That outcome would push global oil prices sharply higher, increase gasoline costs worldwide, and intensify inflation pressures across major economies.
FAQs:
Where is Kharg Island located? Kharg Island lies in the northern Persian Gulf, about 15 miles (25 km) off Iran’s southern coast. It sits near the entrance to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.
Why is Kharg Island so important for global oil markets? Kharg Island handles around 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. The terminal can load up to 7 million barrels of oil per day and store roughly 30 million barrels. Any disruption there can quickly affect global oil supply and oil prices.
What did the US attack on Kharg Island target? The US strikes targeted military facilities, including runways, missile storage sites, and naval infrastructure on the island. Officials said oil export terminals and storage tanks were not directly hit.
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Important DisclaimersFXEmpire is owned and operated by Empire Media Network LTD., Company Registration Number 514641786, registered at 7 Jabotinsky Road, Ramat Gan 5252007, Israel. The content provided on this website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and materials provided by third parties. This content is intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be interpreted as, a recommendation or advice to take any action, including making any investment or purchasing any product. Before making any financial decision, you should conduct your own due diligence, exercise your own discretion, and consult with competent advisors. The content on this website is not personally directed to you, and we do not take into account your individual financial situation or needs. The information contained on this website is not necessarily provided in real time, nor is it guaranteed to be accurate. Prices displayed may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges. Any trading or other financial decision you make is entirely your own responsibility, and you must not rely solely on any information provided through the website. FXEmpire does not provide any warranty regarding the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any information contained on the website and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of using such information. The website may include advertisements and other promotional content. FXEmpire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with such content. FXEmpire does not endorse, recommend, or assume responsibility for the use of any third-party services or websites. Empire Media Network LTD., its employees, officers, subsidiaries, and affiliates shall not be liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided herein.Risk DisclaimersThis website contains information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs), and other financial instruments, as well as about brokers, exchanges, and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and involve a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. FX Empire encourages you to conduct your own research before making any investment decision and to avoid investing in any financial instrument unless you fully understand how it works and the risks involved.
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure after posting losses for three consecutive days and trades at its lowest level since August below 1.1500. The technical outlook points to oversold conditions but sellers could refrain from betting on a steady rebound in the near term.
Euro Price This week
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.
USD
EUR
GBP
JPY
CAD
AUD
NZD
CHF
USD
0.69%
0.37%
0.83%
0.44%
-0.66%
0.96%
1.07%
EUR
-0.69%
-0.33%
0.15%
-0.26%
-1.35%
0.26%
0.37%
GBP
-0.37%
0.33%
0.49%
0.07%
-1.02%
0.60%
0.70%
JPY
-0.83%
-0.15%
-0.49%
-0.37%
-1.46%
0.15%
0.25%
CAD
-0.44%
0.26%
-0.07%
0.37%
-1.11%
0.52%
0.63%
AUD
0.66%
1.35%
1.02%
1.46%
1.11%
1.63%
1.74%
NZD
-0.96%
-0.26%
-0.60%
-0.15%
-0.52%
-1.63%
0.10%
CHF
-1.07%
-0.37%
-0.70%
-0.25%
-0.63%
-1.74%
-0.10%
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Crude Oil prices rose sharply on Thursday and fed into inflation fears as the crisis in the Middle East escalated further. Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, said in his first public statement that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz maritime passage should be continued as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” while the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reportedly threatened to set the region’s oil and gas infrastructure on fire if Iranian energy sites are attacked.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve (Fed) leaving the policy rate unchanged in the next three consecutive meetings climbed above 75% from about 63% early Thursday. In turn, the US Dollar (USD) gathered strength, forcing EUR/USD to stretch lower.
The US economic calendar will feature Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for January and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will publish the second estimate of the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter.
Investors are likely to ignore these data and stay focused on changes in Oil prices and the market mood. At the time of press, US stock index futures were down between 0.2% and 0.4%. In case safe-haven flows dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day, EUR/USD could extend its slide heading into the weekend. Conversely, a sharp correction in Oil prices could help the risk mood improve and open the door for a rebound in the pair.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis:
In the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD trades at 1.1470. The near-term bias turns bearish as the pair slips below the clustered 20- and 50-period Moving Averages (MAs), while the 100- and 200-period MAs above price around 1.17 reinforce a broader downside context. Price holds near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating persistent selling pressure and compressed downside volatility rather than an oversold snapback. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 29.99 moves into oversold territory, aligning with the bearish tone but also flagging the risk of short-covering bounces within a declining structure.
Immediate resistance is now seen at 1.1500, where a prior horizontal barrier aligns just above price and would cap any corrective upticks, followed by the higher resistance at 1.1670 near the descending longer-term averages. On the downside, the next key support sits at 1.1460, with a break lower exposing the more distant 1.1400 level as the next bearish target. As long as EUR/USD trades below 1.1500, rallies are set to face selling interest, and the path of least resistance remains to the downside toward the lower support band.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Euro FAQs
The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day.
EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy.
The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control.
Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.
Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency.
A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall.
Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.
Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period.
If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
The EURJPY pair is affected by the stability at 184.40 barrier in the last period, which forces it to form new negative trading, approaching the initial negative target at 182.90 as appears in the above image.
Note that stochastic stability below 80 level might push the price to provide more negative trading, to attempt to target 182.45 level reaching %23.6 Fibonacci correction level near 182.00, while its rally again above 184.40 will confirm its move to the bullish track, to attempt to achieve several gains by its rally towards 184.80 and 185.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.00 and 183.65
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bearish trend
The EURJPY pair is affected by the stability at 184.40 barrier in the last period, which forces it to form new negative trading, approaching the initial negative target at 182.90 as appears in the above image.
Note that stochastic stability below 80 level might push the price to provide more negative trading, to attempt to target 182.45 level reaching %23.6 Fibonacci correction level near 182.00, while its rally again above 184.40 will confirm its move to the bullish track, to attempt to achieve several gains by its rally towards 184.80 and 185.45.
The expected trading range for today is between 182.00 and 183.65
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bearish trend
Copper price remains affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, which forces it to provide slow negative trading, to fluctuate near $5.7200, where gathering negative momentum makes us expect forming bearish waves, to attempt to reach the corrective stations at $5.6200, to press on the extra support near $5.5100, forming a key to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.
While regaining the bullish trend requires forming strong bullish rally to settle above $5.9700 level, to begin targeting new positive stations by its rally towards $6.1200.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.6200 and $5.8200
The Canadian dollar continues to see a lot of momentum against the Japanese yen overall, as oil drives this pair higher.
The Canadian dollar dropped a bit against the Japanese Yen in early trading on Thursday but then turned around to show signs of life.
The market is currently hanging around the 117 Yen level, an area that I think is important as it is a large round psychologically significant figure and an area that a lot of traders will be watching due to the fact that markets do tend to be very technical when all else fails.
Keep in mind that the oil market is important to watch and as oil continues to be very strong it does make a certain amount of sense that money goes into the Canadian dollar especially against the Japanese Yen which represents an economy that number 1 has a central bank that can’t tighten monetary policy and therefore interest rates will remain low.
But we also have to keep in mind that the Japanese import 100% of their crude oil and therefore it is one of the best trades that I know of that you can do to take advantage of oil rallying, as this is such a clean set up for those looking to trade oil without the danger of futures.
Support Levels and Technical Targets
The 115.50 Yen level underneath is a significant support level based by the previous resistance. We had been consolidating between 112 Yen and 115.5 Yen and that suggests a 250 pip move.
That would have the Canadian dollar reaching the 118 Yen level before it’s all said and done. There’s nothing on this chart that suggests to me that it can’t happen and therefore I think short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities that we can take advantage of in a market that has a lot of momentum.
Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price remains affected by the contradiction of the main indicators, which forces it to provide slow negative trading, to fluctuate near $5.7200, where gathering negative momentum makes us expect forming bearish waves, to attempt to reach the corrective stations at $5.6200, to press on the extra support near $5.5100, forming a key to detect the main trend in the upcoming trading.
While regaining the bullish trend requires forming strong bullish rally to settle above $5.9700 level, to begin targeting new positive stations by its rally towards $6.1200.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.6200 and $5.8200
The GBP/USD pair attracts heavy selling during the first half of the European session on Friday and dives back closer to mid-1.3200s, or the year-to-date low touched last week, in reaction to the disappointing UK macro data. Figures from the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the economy stagnated in January, compared to a 0.1% increase recorded in the previous month and market estimates for a 0.2% growth.
Other data showed that Industrial Production declined by 0.2% in January, while Manufacturing Production rose 0.1% during the reported month. The backward-looking data comes on top of heightened uncertainties over conflicts in the Middle East, which could have a ripple effect on economies around the world. This, in turn, weighs heavily on the British Pound (GBP), which, along with sustained US Dollar (USD) buying, exerts additional downward pressure on the GBP/USD pair.
Investors now seem worried that the recent surge in energy prices would rekindle inflation and force the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay cutting interest rates. The outlook remains supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and assists the USD to attract buyers for the fourth straight day. Furthermore, the global flight to safety benefits the safe-haven buck, pushing the USD Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against a basket of currencies, to its highest level since November 2025.
The global risk sentiment remains fragile amid a further escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a prolonged US-Israel campaign against Iran. Meanwhile, Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, warned during his first public statement that all US military bases in the region should be immediately closed or will be attacked. He further added that attacks against US bases in the region would continue, even though Iran believes in goodwill with its neighbors.
US President Donald Trump, on the other hand, said that stopping the evil empire in Iran was of greater importance to him than Oil prices. Adding to this, supply disruption fears due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz keep Crude Oil prices near the $100 psychological mark. This might continue to benefit the Greenback, suggesting that the path of least resistance for the GBP/USD pair is to the downside. Traders now look forward to the crucial US inflation data for a fresh impetus.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge – is due for release later during the North American session. Friday’s US economic docket also features Durable Goods Orders, JOLTS Job Openings, and the Preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Index. The immediate market reaction to the data is more likely to be short-lived as the market focus remains glued to geopolitical developments, which favors the USD bulls.
GBP/USD 4-hour chart
Technical Analysis:
The recent repeated failures near the 200-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart and the subsequent fall underscore a downside bias within a broader corrective phase. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator slips deeper into negative territory with the line below its signal and a mildly expanding negative histogram, signalling strengthening selling pressure.
The Relative Strength Index near 32 stays below the 50 midline and approaches oversold territory, aligning with persistent downward momentum even as the risk of a corrective bounce increases. Any attempted recovery, however, might confront initial resistance at the 1.3350 area, where recent intraday highs converge with the first meaningful recovery pivot. A break above this zone would open the way toward 1.3420 and then the 1.3480 region closer to the 200-period EMA.
On the downside, immediate support is located around 1.3230, guarding the path toward the 1.3180 level as the next bearish target if sellers extend control. A sustained hold below 1.3350 keeps rallies capped and preserves the short-term bearish structure on the 4-hour chart, as reflected by the EMA.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
US Bombs Kharg Island: Oil prices today: As oil markets already near $100, how could a US strike on Iran’s Kharg Island further impact global oil prices, Brent crude, and WTI crude futures? Gallery
