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The GBPJPY pair reached 211.20 level in its last negative moves, affected by the positivity of the main indicators, to notice forming a strong bullish trend to retest %50 Fibonacci correction level at 213.50 to settle below it.
The stability below 213.50 level will make the price renew the corrective attempts, gathering the negative momentum makes us expect reaching 212.35 initially, to repeat the attempts of breaking the barrier at 211.80, while its rally above 213.50 might provide a chance for attacking the main barrier at 214.50, which represents a key for detecting the main trend in the upcoming trading.
The expected trading range for today is between 212.30 and 213.50
Trend forecast: Bearish
Silver is a tangible commodity with real value, and its price cannot fall to zero. The metal is highly malleable, harder than gold, and softer than copper. It conducts electricity and heat well and remains in high demand across various industries.
Silver is an effective means of safeguarding capital against inflation. What is the outlook for the price of silver in the near term? What are the projections for the future trajectory of the XAGUSD exchange rate from leading global analysts? This article answers these questions and provides valuable insights into the silver market.
The article covers the following subjects:
Silver is trading at $74.161 as of 19.05.2026.
It is essential to pay close attention to the following key indicators to gain a clear insight into the current state of the silver market:
|
Indicator |
Value |
|
US inflation rate (YoY) |
3.8% |
|
US interest rate |
3.75% |
|
52-week range |
$32.11–$121.67 |
|
Trading volume |
75,013 contracts |
|
1-year change |
135.33% |
|
Technical analysis recommendation |
Buy |
Let’s perform a technical analysis of the weekly XAGUSD chart to forecast the pair’s potential movement.
In May 2026, the silver price consolidated between 71.09 and 87.92, and is currently holding at 74.161. Technical indicators and candlestick patterns are giving mixed signals regarding the future movement of the precious metal:
Below is XAGUSD’s 12-month price forecast.
|
Month |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
June 2026 |
70.89 |
78.75 |
86.61 |
|
July 2026 |
79.62 |
84.36 |
89.11 |
|
August 2026 |
78.38 |
86.99 |
95.60 |
|
September 2026 |
87.86 |
92.43 |
97.01 |
|
October 2026 |
91.36 |
97.97 |
104.59 |
|
November 2026 |
95.85 |
100.84 |
105.83 |
|
December 2026 |
101.09 |
106.45 |
111.82 |
|
January 2027 |
103.84 |
108.70 |
113.57 |
|
February 2027 |
110.33 |
116.69 |
123.06 |
|
March 2027 |
112.82 |
120.18 |
127.55 |
|
April 2027 |
120.31 |
127.05 |
133.79 |
|
May 2027 |
127.55 |
132.29 |
137.03 |
The technical analysis has revealed key support and resistance levels that can be used for creating a trading strategy for the coming year.
Most forecasting platforms predict that silver prices will go up in 2026, fueled by strong industrial demand for green technologies, such as solar panels and electronics, and moderate inflation. The increase is expected to be gradual, though corrections may happen as the US Fed adjusts its monetary policy.
Price range: $68.90–$97.04.
According to LongForecast, the silver price will settle at $77.53 in early June 2026. The price is expected to fluctuate between $72.66 and $81.02 by the end of Q3, closing at $77.16 in September. In Q4, bullish momentum is projected to pick up, pushing the price to a high of $97.04.
|
Month |
Open, $ |
Min–Max, $ |
Close, $ |
|
June |
77.53 |
68.90–86.59 |
78.75 |
|
July |
78.75 |
73.59–81.33 |
77.46 |
|
August |
77.46 |
69.03–77.46 |
72.66 |
|
September |
72.66 |
72.66–81.02 |
77.16 |
|
October |
77.16 |
77.16–86.04 |
81.94 |
|
November |
81.94 |
81.94–91.37 |
87.02 |
|
December |
87.02 |
87.02–97.04 |
92.42 |
Price range: $70.89–$80.12.
WalletInvestor forecasts XAGUSD to open at $77.26 in early June, decline to $74.93 by the end of Q3, and fall to $73.16 by year-end.
|
Month |
Open, $ |
Close, $ |
Minimum, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
June |
77.26 |
76.70 |
73.86 |
80.12 |
|
July |
76.68 |
76.10 |
73.90 |
78.90 |
|
August |
76.08 |
75.51 |
73.24 |
78.37 |
|
September |
75.49 |
74.93 |
73.28 |
77.15 |
|
October |
74.91 |
74.33 |
71.66 |
77.61 |
|
November |
74.31 |
73.76 |
72.21 |
75.87 |
|
December |
73.74 |
73.16 |
70.89 |
76.02 |
Price range: $51.43–$95.69.
CoinCodex predicts that the silver price may reach $63.86 in June 2026 and settle at $62.88 by the end of Q3. After that, the metal is expected to start rising again, reaching a high of $95.69 in December.
|
Month |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
June |
52.46 |
63.86 |
76.42 |
|
July |
58.13 |
62.09 |
66.96 |
|
August |
58.94 |
65.81 |
75.46 |
|
September |
51.43 |
62.88 |
75.41 |
|
October |
57.00 |
60.88 |
65.65 |
|
November |
58.38 |
63.11 |
70.52 |
|
December |
68.39 |
78.81 |
95.69 |
The acceleration of the global energy transition may boost structural demand, while a shortage of metal in the market may drive up prices. As a result, most experts predict silver prices will rally in 2027. Nevertheless, some analysts predict a decline.
Note: The price ranges reflect the asset's expected volatility throughout the year. Lows and highs may not be shown in the summary tables.
Price range: $90.52–$129.34.
LongForecast expects the XAGUSD pair to trade between $90.52 and $129.34 throughout 2027. The asset is projected to open at 92.42 in Q1 and close at $115.99 in Q4. Thus, a steady uptrend is expected.
|
Quarter |
Open, $ |
Min–Max, $ |
Close, $ |
|
Q1 |
92.42 |
90.52–112.83 |
107.46 |
|
Q2 |
107.46 |
104.37–123.47 |
117.59 |
|
Q3 |
117.59 |
105.44–123.76 |
115.99 |
|
Q4 |
115.99 |
104.43–129.34 |
109.93 |
Price range: $64.13–$75.01.
WalletInvestor forecasts that the XAGUSD pair will trade between $75.01 and $64.13 in 2027. The metal is expected to open the year at $73.14 and close at $66.13.
|
Quarter |
Open, $ |
Close, $ |
Minimum, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
73.14 |
71.43 |
69.21 |
75.01 |
|
Q2 |
71.41 |
69.67 |
67.65 |
74.26 |
|
Q3 |
69.66 |
67.90 |
65.32 |
71.19 |
|
Q4 |
67.88 |
66.13 |
64.13 |
69.92 |
Price range: $76.79–$141.34.
According to CoinCodex, silver will experience mixed price movements in 2027. The average price is expected to reach $93.54 in Q1 and pull back to $91.89 by mid-year. In Q3, a bullish trend is projected, with the price jumping to $102.73. After that, the uptrend is predicted to reverse, with the average price dropping to $87.09.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
76.79 |
93.54 |
141.34 |
|
Q2 |
84.85 |
91.89 |
105.30 |
|
Q3 |
98.54 |
102.73 |
110.15 |
|
Q4 |
83.71 |
87.09 |
102.25 |
Some experts believe that the price of silver will soar in 2028. Long-term inflationary risks and geopolitical tensions are likely to spur investment in precious metals.
Price range: $109.03–$146.21.
LongForecast predicts that the price of the precious metal will reach $109.93 in early 2028, then hover between $123.87 and $136.80 in Q2 and Q3, and settle at $132.26 by year-end.
|
Quarter |
Open, $ |
Min–Max, $ |
Close, $ |
|
Q1 |
109.93 |
109.03–128.31 |
122.20 |
|
Q2 |
122.20 |
110.81–130.06 |
123.87 |
|
Q3 |
123.87 |
123.87–146.21 |
136.80 |
|
Q4 |
136.80 |
118.31–138.87 |
132.26 |
Price range: $72.16–$107.72.
WalletInvestor forecasts a bullish trend. XAG is expected to advance to $81.98 in the first half of the year and increase to $104.58 by year-end.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
73.47 |
75.74 |
83.00 |
|
Q2 |
72.16 |
81.98 |
89.08 |
|
Q3 |
80.33 |
95.45 |
101.82 |
|
Q4 |
93.53 |
104.58 |
107.72 |
Price range: $81.84–$99.06.
According to CoinCodex, the average price may climb to $93.66 in Q1, drop to $90.24 by mid-year, and rebound to $92.67 in Q3. By year-end, silver is expected to average at $86.52.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
84.72 |
93.66 |
98.05 |
|
Q2 |
85.92 |
90.24 |
99.06 |
|
Q3 |
81.84 |
92.67 |
96.71 |
|
Q4 |
83.62 |
86.52 |
92.81 |
Analysts suggest the XAGUSD pair may experience moderate growth in 2029. If decarbonization trends persist, silver will become a strategically important commodity. Periods of high volatility may occur due to macroeconomic shocks, but the overall trend is expected to remain bullish.
Price range: $115.63–$147.89.
LongForecast predicts an uneven trajectory for this trading instrument in 2029. The price is expected to trade at $132.26 at the start of the year, before sliding to $121.72 by mid-year. The asset is set to close the year at $140.85.
|
Quarter |
Open, $ |
Min–Max, $ |
Close, $ |
|
Q1 |
132.26 |
120.50–142.41 |
126.84 |
|
Q2 |
126.84 |
115.63–141.44 |
121.72 |
|
Q3 |
121.72 |
120.41–141.89 |
126.75 |
|
Q4 |
126.75 |
118.65–147.89 |
140.85 |
Price range: $98.41–$142.63.
WalletInvestor predicts that the average price will reach $117.06 in Q1, drop to $114.27 by mid-year, and rise to $137.00 by year-end.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
98.41 |
117.06 |
121.21 |
|
Q2 |
109.58 |
114.27 |
123.32 |
|
Q3 |
111.03 |
117.03 |
126.17 |
|
Q4 |
111.09 |
137.00 |
142.63 |
Price range: $74.43–$93.64.
CoinCodex projects mixed price movements for silver in 2029. The price is predicted to trade between $85.09 and $93.64 in the first half of the year, closing at 87.81 in June. In Q3 and Q4, a predominantly bearish trend is expected, with the price potentially falling to $78.55 by the end of December.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
86.23 |
87.70 |
93.64 |
|
Q2 |
85.09 |
87.81 |
91.84 |
|
Q3 |
74.71 |
76.03 |
86.09 |
|
Q4 |
74.43 |
78.55 |
82.33 |
If industrial demand outpaces supply amid limited reserves, silver prices could surge sharply by 2030. However, forecasts remain mixed. More optimistic scenarios factor in the risks of hyperinflation and silver’s role as a strategic resource, while moderate outlooks anticipate steadier growth driven by a cyclical recovery in commodity markets.
Price range: $556.87–$1,064.40.
According to Gov Capital, the asset will show positive momentum in 2030. The average price is expected to stay above $700.00. The minimum and maximum prices are projected to be $556.87 and $1,064.40, respectively.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
556.87 |
748.92 |
897.78 |
|
Q2 |
661.50 |
831.19 |
914.31 |
|
Q3 |
717.54 |
865.88 |
960.53 |
|
Q4 |
768.00 |
957.74 |
1,064.40 |
Price range: $134.24–$243.16.
WalletInvestor predicts the XAGUSD pair to increase to $171.58 in early 2030, surge to $210.78 in Q3, and reach $233.13 by December.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
134.24 |
171.58 |
176.73 |
|
Q2 |
160.36 |
181.42 |
192.98 |
|
Q3 |
174.23 |
210.78 |
219.29 |
|
Q4 |
206.47 |
233.13 |
243.16 |
Price range: $76.37–$103.84.
According to CoinCodex, silver could stabilize at $81.33 in Q1 2030. The price is expected to range between $76.37 and $85.79 in the first half of the year, closing at $80.05 in June. The bullish trend may resume by the end of the year, bringing the price up to $91.48.
|
Quarter |
Minimum, $ |
Average, $ |
Maximum, $ |
|
Q1 |
79.91 |
81.33 |
85.79 |
|
Q2 |
76.37 |
80.05 |
82.36 |
|
Q3 |
79.71 |
95.86 |
103.84 |
|
Q4 |
88.11 |
91.48 |
96.82 |
It is extremely difficult to predict the price of XAGUSD decades into the future. Economic cycles, technological breakthroughs, geopolitical shifts, and monetary policy changes can all radically alter the market landscape, invalidating current forecasts and analyses.
However, despite this uncertainty, long-term forecasts should not be overlooked. While specific price targets for 2040–2050 may ultimately prove either too ambitious or too conservative, the broader market trends and directions identified by experts can still provide valuable guidance for building a long-term investment strategy. Such a strategy should remain flexible and adaptable, enabling investors to respond to unexpected developments and adjust their positions accordingly.
According to CoinPriceForecast, the silver price may rise to 239.36 by the end of 2031 and continue to grow, reaching 351.67 by 2035 and 411.56 by 2037.
|
Year |
Coin Price Forecast, $ |
|
2031 |
239.36 |
|
2033 |
304.96 |
|
2035 |
351.67 |
|
2037 |
411.56 |
Media sentiment refers to the overall opinion of social media users regarding various financial instruments, such as silver, as expressed in posts, comments, and discussions. It is a valuable tool for gauging the sentiment of potential investors.
A positive media sentiment, marked by growing mentions, increased search interest, and optimistic forecasts, can stimulate interest in silver and, consequently, drive up its price. Negative sentiment, on the other hand, can trigger a price drop.
For example, user @ElliottForecast predicts on X that the XAGUSD pair may rise to $90.00 in the medium term.
User @techtrading11 also expects the silver price to go up and hit $86.00–$88.00 in the near future.
Independent trader @Economic_Office provides a positive outlook, expecting silver prices to climb to $145.00–$150.00.
Overall, posts on X suggest that retail investors and traders are generally optimistic about the XAGUSD pair.
Silver reached its all-time high of $121.636 on 29.01.2026. The lowest price of silver was recorded on 22.02.1991 when the asset declined to $3.53.
It is essential to evaluate historical data to make our forecasts as accurate as possible. The chart below shows the XAGUSD price movement over the last ten years.
The silver price is showing significant volatility due to macroeconomic factors, geopolitical tensions, and industrial demand.
In 2020, amid the COVID-19 pandemic, silver experienced a sharp downturn, followed by a rapid rebound bolstered by expectations of economic recovery.
The year 2021 was marked by price consolidation despite inflation concerns.
In 2022–2023, there was increased volatility due to monetary policy tightening and the strengthening of the US dollar.
In 2025, silver started to grow rapidly and became more volatile. The price accelerated in the spring amid strong industrial demand and gained momentum in late summer and autumn thanks to demand for safe-haven assets. In Q4, the silver price fluctuated within a wide range and closed the year at around $70.46 per ounce.
In 2026, the market opened with a strong rally, exceeding $100 in January and later reaching a historic high of $121. However, this growth was followed by a sharp reversal. By spring, the price fell to $60 amid mass long liquidations. Prices later partially recovered, but volatility remains high due to geopolitical uncertainty.
Fundamental factors affecting the price of silver (XAGUSD) play a key role in developing trading and investment strategies. The following factors should be taken into account when making trading decisions.
When analyzing and forecasting the XAGUSD rate, it is important to consider all the above-mentioned factors in conjunction with technical analysis. This will allow you to comprehensively assess the silver market and make more informed trading decisions.
Silver and gold are historically regarded as a reliable store of value during periods of economic instability. In periods of economic turbulence, investors frequently turn to gold as a safer asset than silver. This is the reason behind the increase in the gold/silver ratio during such periods. In addition, the price of silver tends to decline due to reduced production and demand for the metal during economic turmoil.
However, silver offers distinctive benefits, particularly in the context of investment portfolio diversification. Its high volatility can be advantageous for short-term investors willing to assume risk for the potential for profits when manufacturing sectors that use silver, such as solar energy, electric vehicles, and others, begin to recover.
For those seeking to diversify their investment portfolio, silver represents a promising option. Its low correlation with the stock and debt markets makes it an attractive asset when growth expectations in the financial markets are low.
Investing in shares of mining companies can be an effective alternative to investing in physical silver. Mining companies can generate dividends and have the potential for growth associated with higher silver prices. Furthermore, these companies may be less susceptible to economic fluctuations than other sectors.
While investments in silver offer certain advantages, they also entail certain risks. It is essential for investors to conduct a thorough assessment of their financial objectives before making any decisions.
In this section, we will examine the advantages and disadvantages of investing in silver.
To predict the future value of silver, we employ a combined analytical approach. By integrating fundamental and technical analysis, we can gain a more comprehensive understanding of the silver market.
Fundamental analysis offers insights into long-term trends, such as:
Technical analysis and social media sentiment evaluation facilitate rapid response to market sentiment shifts. By utilizing charts and candlestick patterns, it is possible to identify short-term price trends and potential entry and exit points. This is particularly crucial in volatile markets, where price swings can present opportunities for swift gains.
When these approaches are used in conjunction, they provide a comprehensive view of the market, increasing the likelihood of successful trading. By integrating fundamental data and technical signals, it is possible to gain deeper insights into short-term corrections and long-term trends, which are essential for developing a robust trading strategy.
Whether or not to invest in the XAGUSD pair depends on your objectives, risk tolerance, and time horizon. Like any asset, silver can fluctuate significantly depending on market conditions and the economic situation. However, the metal is widely used in the industrial sector. It is considered a safe-haven asset and may grow in price amid rising inflation and crises. Therefore, the XAGUSD pair can be a good way to diversify your investment portfolio.
Before making trading and investment decisions, you should carefully analyze the market, assess your financial capabilities, and evaluate the degree of acceptable risk.
The content of this article reflects the author’s opinion and does not necessarily reflect the official position of LiteFinance broker. The material published on this page is provided for informational purposes only and should not be considered as the provision of investment advice for the purposes of Directive 2014/65/EU.
According to copyright law, this article is considered intellectual property, which includes a prohibition on copying and distributing it without consent.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate retreated towards 1.3380 after failing to hold gains above the 1.34 level, with Sterling undermined by a stronger US Dollar and renewed concerns surrounding UK political and fiscal risks.
ING notes that the global bond-market sell-off has become an important negative for the Pound, particularly as investors reassess exposure to economies with widening fiscal pressures.
The bank considers that recent UK political developments have increased uncertainty surrounding fiscal policy credibility and could trigger a higher Sterling risk premium.
“During this period, international investors may want to avoid UK exposure, and at its extreme, another 3-4% in risk premium could be priced into sterling.”
ING also notes that rising US Treasury yields continue to support the Dollar more broadly as markets scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
That combination leaves GBP/USD vulnerable in the short term, especially if global risk appetite deteriorates further.
The bank expects support around the 1.3250–1.3300 area to come under increasing focus if bond-market volatility persists.
At the same time, ING still considers Sterling relatively better positioned against the Euro given ongoing structural growth concerns within the eurozone.
Near-term direction will depend heavily on global bond markets, Federal Reserve expectations and whether UK political tensions continue to intensify.
For now, ING considers that the balance of risks remains tilted towards further GBP/USD weakness.
Copper price settled with the bearish corrective track by providing negative closes below the extra barrier at $6.3800 level, fluctuating again near $6.1700 level.
The price needs to break the initial support at $6.1000 to resume the negative attempts, opening the way for targeting extra corrective stations that might begin at $5.9500 and $5.8000, while surpassing $6.3800 level and holding above it will increase the chances of forming bullish waves, to expect targeting %100 Fibonacci extension level at $6.5400.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.3000
Trend forecast: Bearish
The dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate strengthened to highs near 158.5 at the start of the week, maintaining pressure on the Japanese currency after another rise in US Treasury yields.
MUFG notes that the yen remains vulnerable in the short term, especially with energy prices rising again and global bond markets under renewed pressure.
The bank expects yield differentials to remain an important driver, particularly as markets continue scaling back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
In this context, MUFG expects USD/JPY to remain close to the upper end of its recent range, with the bank targeting a 157.00–160.00 range in the short term.
“Fundamental factors continue to favour further yen weakness and will keep pressure on Japan to intervene again to support the yen as the USD/JPY moves back closer to the 160.00-level.”
MUFG also notes that Japan’s fiscal position is attracting increased scrutiny following discussion of another supplementary budget package and rising long-dated Japanese government bond yields.
The bank considers that higher oil prices are an additional negative for the yen given Japan’s dependence on imported energy.
At the same time, volatility could increase sharply if markets begin testing the Japanese authorities’ tolerance for renewed yen weakness.
The bank still sees scope for periods of yen recovery over the medium term, particularly if geopolitical tensions intensify further or US economic data starts to weaken more materially.
In the short term, however, MUFG considers that the balance of risks still favours a higher USD/JPY pair.
Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market on May 19, 2026 recorded a very strong decline session, completely cutting off the accumulation momentum of the mid-week period.
According to the latest survey data in key growing areas of the Central Highlands, the bulk purchase price simultaneously “evaporated” from 1,400 to 1,700 VND per kg, pushing the average price level throughout the region deeply back to the threshold of 85,400 VND per kg.
Specifically in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices decreased sharply by 1,700 VND, bringing the purchase level back to 85,500 VND per kg but still maintaining the highest position in the region.
Dak Lak and Gia Lai localities both recorded a deep decrease of 1,700 VND, currently trading stably at the 85,300 VND per kg mark.
Lam Dong area witnessed a decrease of 1,400 VND, pushing soybean kernel prices down to the lowest level in the region at 84,880 VND per kg.
Meanwhile, pepper still maintained stable sideways movement at 142,000 VND per kg and the USD exchange rate listed at Vietcombank slightly increased by 2 VND to 26,109 VND.
World coffee prices
Developments on the two international futures exchanges in the nearest closing session continued to sink into bright red as selling pressure from speculative funds increased sharply.
On the New York exchange, Arabica coffee futures for July 2026 delivery fell another 2.70 cents, equivalent to 1,01%, closing the session at 256.75 cents per pound, officially setting the lowest contract level in nearly 1.5 years.
Sharing the negative trend, the London exchange witnessed Robusta futures for July 2026 delivery plummet by 59 USD, equivalent to 1.75%, falling deeply to the threshold of 3,306 USD per ton, hitting the lowest level in the past 4 weeks. The continuous decline in the last two sessions of the week and the beginning of the new week clearly reflects the panic of speculators before the new supply wave about to land from South America.
Coffee price assessment and forecast
From the perspective of macro analysts, the core reason pushing coffee prices to slide comes from the harvest progress and expectations of Brazil’s super-bumper crop.
Major organizations such as StoneX and Marex Group Plc both maintained their forecast for the 2026 crop year. 2027 of this South American nation will reach a record 75.9 million bags, directly expanding the global coffee surplus in 2026 to 10 million bags.
In Vietnam, export growth in the first 4 months of the year, impressively increasing by 15.8% to 810,000 tons, also contributed to easing the fear of Robusta shortage among international roasters.
However, the market still has certain technical support points when Arabica inventories on the ICE exchange just fell to the bottom of 2.75 months with 462,777 bags, Robusta inventories anchored at the bottom of 2 years with 3,631 lots, along with the fact that the Strait of Hormuz continues to close, increasing freight and fertilizer costs to a very high level.
In the short term, domestic coffee prices will continue to be under adjustment pressure and strong fluctuations around 84,000 to 86,000 VND per kg when Brazil’s new crops begin to flood the market in June.
– Written by
Frank Davies
STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Recovers as UK Bond Markets Stabilise
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Monday, clawing back some of last week’s losses as UK political concerns began to ease and British bond markets stabilised.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3393, up around 0.5% on the day.
The Pound (GBP) climbed on Monday as investors appeared to take a calmer view of the UK’s political backdrop.
Pound Sterling had been knocked last week by mounting speculation over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position, with the uncertainty spilling into the bond market and sending UK borrowing costs sharply higher.
However, the mood improved at the start of the week as fears of an imminent leadership challenge began to recede.
Further reassurance came from Andy Burnham, seen as a potential challenger, after he suggested that he would maintain the government’s current fiscal rules if he became Prime Minister.
His comments helped cool concerns around the UK’s fiscal outlook, allowing gilt yields to pull back from their recent near-18-year highs and easing a key source of pressure on the Pound.
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GBP also found some support from the IMF’s latest UK growth upgrade. The fund lifted its 2026 forecast from 0.8% to 1%, citing the economy’s ‘strong pre-war momentum’.
With political nerves easing and borrowing costs retreating, Sterling was able to regain some of the ground lost during last week’s volatility.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) weakened on Monday as investors locked in gains following the currency’s strong run last week, which had carried USD to multi-week highs.
The safe-haven ‘Greenback’ also struggled to attract much fresh demand amid an uneven market mood.
Ongoing attacks in the Middle East kept investors cautious, preventing a stronger risk-on rally. However, tentative optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal helped curb demand for safer assets.
As a result, the US Dollar lost ground as traders trimmed positions after last week’s advance.
Looking ahead, the Pound could be driven by the UK’s latest labour market figures on Tuesday.
Economists expect unemployment to have held at 4.9% in the three months to March, pointing to a broadly unchanged jobs market. Wage growth is also forecast to remain steady, while employment is expected to rise by 107,000.
If the figures print in line with expectations, signs of resilience in the UK labour market could reinforce the view that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates.
Later in the session, comments from BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden may also influence GBP. A hawkish tone from Breeden could help the Pound extend its gains.
For the US Dollar, the latest ADP weekly employment change figure may attract attention as investors look for fresh signals on the strength of the US jobs market.
Meanwhile, risk sentiment could remain a key driver of the ‘Greenback’. Any further developments in the Middle East may trigger volatility, particularly if they shift demand for safe-haven currencies.
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
– Written by
Frank Davies
STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Recovers as UK Bond Markets Stabilise
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate strengthened on Monday, clawing back some of last week’s losses as UK political concerns began to ease and British bond markets stabilised.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3393, up around 0.5% on the day.
The Pound (GBP) climbed on Monday as investors appeared to take a calmer view of the UK’s political backdrop.
Pound Sterling had been knocked last week by mounting speculation over Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s position, with the uncertainty spilling into the bond market and sending UK borrowing costs sharply higher.
However, the mood improved at the start of the week as fears of an imminent leadership challenge began to recede.
Further reassurance came from Andy Burnham, seen as a potential challenger, after he suggested that he would maintain the government’s current fiscal rules if he became Prime Minister.
His comments helped cool concerns around the UK’s fiscal outlook, allowing gilt yields to pull back from their recent near-18-year highs and easing a key source of pressure on the Pound.
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GBP also found some support from the IMF’s latest UK growth upgrade. The fund lifted its 2026 forecast from 0.8% to 1%, citing the economy’s ‘strong pre-war momentum’.
With political nerves easing and borrowing costs retreating, Sterling was able to regain some of the ground lost during last week’s volatility.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) weakened on Monday as investors locked in gains following the currency’s strong run last week, which had carried USD to multi-week highs.
The safe-haven ‘Greenback’ also struggled to attract much fresh demand amid an uneven market mood.
Ongoing attacks in the Middle East kept investors cautious, preventing a stronger risk-on rally. However, tentative optimism over a potential US-Iran peace deal helped curb demand for safer assets.
As a result, the US Dollar lost ground as traders trimmed positions after last week’s advance.
Looking ahead, the Pound could be driven by the UK’s latest labour market figures on Tuesday.
Economists expect unemployment to have held at 4.9% in the three months to March, pointing to a broadly unchanged jobs market. Wage growth is also forecast to remain steady, while employment is expected to rise by 107,000.
If the figures print in line with expectations, signs of resilience in the UK labour market could reinforce the view that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to raise interest rates.
Later in the session, comments from BoE Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden may also influence GBP. A hawkish tone from Breeden could help the Pound extend its gains.
For the US Dollar, the latest ADP weekly employment change figure may attract attention as investors look for fresh signals on the strength of the US jobs market.
Meanwhile, risk sentiment could remain a key driver of the ‘Greenback’. Any further developments in the Middle East may trigger volatility, particularly if they shift demand for safe-haven currencies.
International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.
TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
The silver price in US dollars (XAG/USD) traded at 77.501360, up 1.07%, stabilising after a steep correction that saw the metal fall nearly 9% on May 15.
Silver has endured extreme volatility this month, sliding from recent highs above 87 even though the broader 12-month trend remains strongly positive.
RBC’s market review showed silver fell 5.4% to $75.99/oz in the week to May 15, while physical silver ETFs still recorded inflows of 4 million ounces.
That combination points to a market where speculative momentum has cooled, but investor demand has not disappeared.
RBC analysts also noted that net long silver positioning increased by 3,000 contracts to 27,000, suggesting parts of the market were still adding exposure despite the price fall.
The wider macro backdrop remains difficult for precious metals.
US Treasury yields rose sharply, the Dollar strengthened, and inflation expectations moved higher after stronger US price data.
These forces tend to hurt silver because the metal carries no yield and is highly sensitive to shifts in real rates.
The correction also follows an exceptional rally.
The price of silver remains up more than 130% over one year, far outpacing the price of gold.
That leaves the market vulnerable to sharp position unwinds when the US Dollar rises or bond yields jump.
For now, silver’s outlook remains split between strong structural performance and fragile short-term momentum.
A sustained break back above 80 would suggest buyers are returning, while failure to recover that level could keep the focus on deeper consolidation after the recent speculative surge.
The Euro (EUR) strengthened against Pound Sterling (GBP) after renewed speculation surrounding Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s future added to concerns over UK political stability and the outlook for the British currency.
Currency analysts at Rabobank said Pound Sterling remains heavily driven by headlines surrounding Starmer’s leadership battle, warning that prolonged political uncertainty could push EUR/GBP higher over the coming year.
GBP initially recovered some ground during early European trade, but Rabobank said the rebound quickly faded as investors reassessed mounting tensions inside the Labour Party.
“The currency clearly remains beholden to news regarding the future of PM Starmer’s leadership,” Rabobank said.
Markets briefly stabilised after Starmer survived another night without a formal leadership challenge, although pressure on the Prime Minister intensified sharply earlier this week.
Rabobank noted that more than 80 Labour MPs have reportedly called on Starmer to resign, while four ministers quit the government yesterday.
The bank said reports suggesting Health Secretary Wes Streeting could resign and launch a leadership challenge “as soon as tomorrow” were adding further uncertainty for investors.
While Labour Party rules make removing an incumbent leader difficult, Rabobank warned the scale of internal divisions points to the risk of “a prolonged period of messy UK politics”.
“This hints at the possibility of a prolonged period of messy UK politics – something that the Labour party had promised to put a stop to,” the bank said.
Rabobank said political instability is increasingly spilling into UK financial markets, particularly the gilt market.
Although long-dated UK bond yields briefly steadied this morning, the bank warned further volatility remains likely if uncertainty drags on.
“Any wobble in the long end would also leave the currency vulnerable,” Rabobank said.
Investors are also reassessing Bank of England rate expectations.
Through March and April, Sterling was supported by a sharp repricing in UK interest rates as markets swung from expecting cuts to pricing multiple hikes following the Iran-driven energy shock.
However, Rabobank believes current pricing has become too aggressive.
“Currently the market is priced for three 25bp rate hikes on a one-year view. That said, in Rabo’s view this is too aggressive,” the bank said.
Rabobank argued that softer labour market conditions and growing spare capacity in the UK economy should ultimately limit the need for aggressive Bank of England tightening.
“A re-pricing in favour of one rate hike could weigh on the pound,” analysts added.
Rabobank continues to forecast the Euro to Pound exchange rate moving towards 0.89 over a 12-month horizon, implying broader Sterling weakness ahead.
The bank warned the UK’s large current account deficit leaves the Pound particularly exposed if political uncertainty combines with renewed gilt market stress or weaker growth expectations later this year.