The New Zealand dollar has jumped to kick off the trading week on Monday, touching the 200-day EMA, but interestingly enough, we see the Kiwi dollar roll right back over again. By doing so, this is a market that is showing you there’s real concern out there right now, as the peace agreement between the Iranians and the Americans, quite frankly, the more details that are released by each country, the less likely it looks, I think, to many people to be signed. That being said, we are in a consolidation area right now with the 0.58 level being the beginning of significant support and the 200-day EMA above being resistance.

USD/CAD Technical Analysis

The pair continues to remain positioned within a positive trend so far, supported by the formation of the 213.50 level as the first key support. This has led to renewed attempts to reach the resistance near 215.50, in an effort to find a breakout path to resume the upward movement in the short to medium term trading.

Based on the above, we will remain waiting for the price to achieve the required breakout, which would increase the likelihood of targeting 216.10 and 216.65 initially. With continued positive factors, the movement could extend toward 217.50, which represents the first main target of the upward trend.

The expected trading range for today is between 214.00 and 216.10

Trend forecast: Bullish

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate opened the new trading week higher after the US and Iran reportedly agreed to end their nearly four-month conflict, boosting risk appetite and reducing demand for the safe-haven US Dollar

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.34, up approximately 0.3% on he market open

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) began the week on the defensive after renewed optimism surrounding US-Iran negotiations reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

Investors reacted positively to comments from US President Donald Trump suggesting that discussions with Tehran were in their “final throes” and that a comprehensive agreement could be reached within days.

This optimism helped improve market sentiment and weighed on the US Dollar through the opening part of the week.

The Greenback remained subdued following the latest US inflation figures, as consumer price growth accelerated broadly in line with expectations and failed to materially alter expectations for Federal Reserve policy.

However, sentiment shifted later in the week as tensions in the Middle East escalated once again.

Fresh exchanges between US and Iranian forces prompted investors to return to defensive positions, helping the US Dollar recover some lost ground.

These gains proved temporary, however, after reports emerged that additional planned US military action had been cancelled and that progress towards a broader diplomatic agreement remained intact.

As a result, the US Dollar ended the week under renewed pressure.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) enjoyed support through much of the week as improving market sentiment and easing UK gilt yields helped underpin Sterling.

Lower borrowing costs provided reassurance to investors after recent volatility in the UK bond market.

However, Sterling’s advance was interrupted by renewed political uncertainty following the surprise resignation of Defence Secretary John Healey, which revived scrutiny of Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership and broader political stability.

The Pound also faced pressure after April’s GDP report showed the UK economy contracted by 0.1%, reinforcing concerns about slowing growth momentum.

Despite these setbacks, Sterling still managed to outperform the US Dollar over the week as geopolitical developments remained the dominant market driver.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Central Banks and Makerfield By-Election in Focus

The coming week could prove pivotal for the Pound to Dollar exchange rate as investors digest policy decisions from both the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.

Both central banks are expected to leave interest rates unchanged, placing the emphasis firmly on their guidance for future policy.

Recent US inflation and labour market data may encourage a relatively hawkish tone from Federal Reserve officials, potentially supporting the US Dollar.

Meanwhile, softer UK economic data could encourage a more cautious approach from the Bank of England, limiting support for Sterling.

Investors will also closely monitor developments surrounding the Makerfield by-election, which is expected to attract considerable political attention.

Combined with central bank decisions and ongoing developments in the Middle East, these factors could contribute to heightened volatility in GBP/USD through the week ahead.

Japanese rates would still not be high relative to U.S. rates if the BOJ raised its interest rate to 1%. But this would indicate a shift from ultra-low rates in Japan. It would also demonstrate the BOJ’s shift of focus towards inflation pressures from energy, import prices and the weak yen.

This could have two advantages for the yen. First, from the viewpoint of borrowers, higher rates make it less attractive to borrow yen and buy higher-yielding assets. Second, a hawkish BOJ may soften the mood of traders to keep large short-yen bets close to the 160 level.

BOJ Guidance and Yen Intervention Risk Become Key Near 160

The weak yen is also a political and economic issue in Japan. This increases the import prices and maintains inflationary pressures. This is one reason why BOJ may continue to hike rates. This is also why markets stay on alert to the risk of intervention when USDJPY approaches 160.

The Fed story is also important. The US dollar remains supported as the Fed expects to maintain rates during its next meeting. The dollar still has a solid interest rate advantage from sticky inflation, solid jobs data and a US Treasury yield that remains high. The USDJPY may not be able to extend its declines unless the U.S. yields decline or the BOJ signals a quicker tightening.

However, the balance of risk is changing. The primary focus of the story earlier was rates in the United States. Now, the market has to factor in the inflation problem in Japan and BOJ’s response. The BOJ may not be satisfied with 1% as the rate of producer prices rises further in Japan.

This makes USDJPY more sensitive towards BOJ guidance. Traders will watch Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida’s comments to see whether he signals a slowdown or a faster pace of tightening.

USDJPY Forecast: 160–162 Breakout Could Open Path Toward 175

The long-term picture for USDJPY remains strongly bullish, as the pair trades within the ascending channel pattern. This bullish structure points to weakness in the yen, which is taking the pair toward the key pivotal level of 160 to 162.

On the downside, the pair has been supported above the 140 level. Each time the pair hits the 140 level, it produces a strong rebound. The rebounds in December 2023, September 2024, and April 2025 have all produced strong rallies to push the pair higher.

2026.06.12 2026.06.12
USD/JPY: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 12.06.26–19.06.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below 160.62 with a target of 152.10–145.50. A sell signal: the price holds below 160.62. Stop Loss: above 161.20, Take Profit: 152.10–145.50.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 160.62 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00. A buy signal: the level of 160.62 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 160.00, Take Profit: 165.00–170.00.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 160.62 with a target of 152.10–145.50.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 160.62 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00.

Analysis

An ascending third wave of larger degree 3 has formed on the weekly chart, and a bearish correction is developing as the fourth wave 4. On the daily time frame, wave (B) of 4 has presumably been completed, and a descending wave (C) of 4 has started to form. The first wave of smaller degree 1 of (C) is unfolding on the H4 chart. Within this structure, wave i of 1 has been completed, and a local corrective wave ii of 1 has likely formed. Wave iii of 1 is in progress now. If the presumption is correct, USD/JPY will continue to decline to 152.10–145.50 within wave iii of 1. The level of 160.62 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 165.00–170.00.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time.

Price chart of USDJPY in real time mode