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Silver has gotten hammered during the trading session as talks between the Americans and the Iranians appear to be on hold. So, interest rates have spiked. With that being the case, it makes a certain amount of sense that traders will be very concerned about the potential risk appetite going forward.
If that ends up being the case, then silver gets hammered. It probably drops down to the $70 level relatively soon. The upside is the $82 level where we see a lot of resistance. And if we can break above there, then we can go to the $90 level.
Quite frankly, we need the situation between the Americans and the Iranians to finally stop. There are a lot of games being played when it comes to talks and as long as that is the case, the war has a very high likelihood of continuing. Supposedly, the 2-week ceasefire ends sometime on Wednesday, so we will have to wait and see how that happens, but I think traders are starting to focus on the idea that maybe shots will be fired again.
If that is the case, silver probably gets hurt. Silver eventually will rally because there is a lot of demand for silver, but right now it is all about the interest rates just destroying the silver forecast. It is a non-yielding asset, and it of course makes a huge difference in how this plays out.
Ultimately, I think the 200-day EMA will be held, but that is all the way down at roughly $65. So, we could fall somewhat significantly. Watch the 10-year yield. If it rises, silver falls. That has been the game we have been playing for a while.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
No news for EURJPY pair’s price due to its neediness to the positive momentum by providing sideways trading by its stability near 187.00, confirming that gathering positive momentum is important to allow it to surpass 187.50 level, to open the way for resuming the bullish trend, to expect targeting 188.35 and 188.80 level.
The continuation of the main indicators’ contradiction might force it to delay the bullish trend and form some corrective trading, which force it to suffer some losses by reaching 186.10 and 185.65 before any attempt to reach the previously suggested taregts.
The expected trading range for today is between 186.40 and 187.50
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
Domestic coffee prices
The domestic coffee market this morning, April 22, recorded a simultaneous downward adjustment in key growing areas of the Central Highlands after strong fluctuations.
According to actual records, the average purchase price throughout the region has retreated to the threshold of 86,900 VND/kg with a general decrease of 500 VND/kg in all localities.
Specifically, in Dak Nong province (old), coffee prices are currently trading at the highest level in the region at 87,100 VND/kg. In Dak Lak and Gia Lai provinces, the purchase price is also at the threshold of 86,800 VND/kg.
Meanwhile, Lam Dong region listed the lowest price in the region at 86,300 VND/kg. This decrease reflects the caution of domestic speculators as world coffee prices are under great pressure from macroeconomic supply and demand reports.
World coffee prices
On international exchanges, red color continued to cover both London and New York exchanges in the early morning closing session today. Arabica coffee futures for May delivery in New York fell another 3.20 cents, equivalent to 1.10%, to the lowest level in the past 7 weeks.
Similarly, the London exchange also recorded Robusta futures for May delivery falling 25 USD, equivalent to 0.72%, despite efforts to recover at the beginning of the session. A technical sell-off wave was triggered when investment funds were concerned about a long-term supply surplus, especially when Arabica could not maintain important support levels previously.
Coffee price assessment
The main reason for the current decline in coffee prices is the prospect of a super bumper crop in Brazil. Marex Group Plc estimates that the output of this South American country in the 2026/27 crop year may reach a record 75.9 million bags, an increase of 15.5% compared to the previous year.
At the same time, the StoneX organization also put pressure on market sentiment when forecasting that the global coffee surplus in 2026 will expand to 10 million bags, marking the largest surplus in the past 6 years.
In Vietnam, Q1 export data increased by 14% to 585,000 tons, showing that the actual supply of goods to the market is still maintained at a high level, creating additional downward pressure for the Robusta line.
Although the market is under great oversupply pressure, there are still some factors hindering the deep decline. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to tensions in the Middle East continues to push up sea transportation costs, insurance and fuel costs, making it difficult for international roasters to import goods.
In addition, Robusta inventories on the ICE exchange are currently still at the lowest level in 16 months with only 3,788 lots as of the beginning of the week. In Brazil, rainfall in the Minas Gerais region last week only reached 20% of the historical average, which is also an important variable that could affect actual yields if the drought persists.
Coffee prices are for reference only, and may vary by region.
British pound has rallied against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday as we continue to see the overall uptrend hold.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see the 214 yen level as significant support.
This is an area that continues to be important, and should continue to be monitored.
To the upside, you have the 216 yen level, an area that I think a lot of people will be watching very closely. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that traders will continue to pile into the GBP/JPY pair. After all, this pair does pay you at the end of every day because of the swap, the interest rate differential between the two currencies is pretty wide, and I think that has a lot to do with what we can expect next.
I don’t necessarily think that we have a huge amount of momentum at the moment, but eventually we should break through the barrier. If and when we do, the measured move of the potential bullish flag is for a move to the 222 yen level. When you look at longer-term charts, it is an area that has been important.
On the other hand, if we were to break down below the 214 yen level, then it’s possible that the market could test the 50-day EMA at 212.24, but I don’t really think that’s going to happen. I think the British pound continues to shine against the Japanese yen, and I have no interest whatsoever in shorting. The lower it goes, the more likely I am to buy the first significant bounce.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.
Copper price didn’t move anything since yesterday by its fluctuation near the initial support at $5.9700, due to the contradiction of the main indicators, by providing negative momentum by stochastic, which settles below 50 level.
The sideways trading might continue, reminding you that the negative pressure might force it to form some bearish corrective trading, attempting to reach $5.8200, while activating the bullish trend requires a new bullish momentum to push the price to settle above $6.1200, to begin activating new positive stations that might extend in the initial period at 6.2500.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.100
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
Copper price didn’t move anything since yesterday by its fluctuation near the initial support at $5.9700, due to the contradiction of the main indicators, by providing negative momentum by stochastic, which settles below 50 level.
The sideways trading might continue, reminding you that the negative pressure might force it to form some bearish corrective trading, attempting to reach $5.8200, while activating the bullish trend requires a new bullish momentum to push the price to settle above $6.1200, to begin activating new positive stations that might extend in the initial period at 6.2500.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.100
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
Copper price didn’t move anything since yesterday by its fluctuation near the initial support at $5.9700, due to the contradiction of the main indicators, by providing negative momentum by stochastic, which settles below 50 level.
The sideways trading might continue, reminding you that the negative pressure might force it to form some bearish corrective trading, attempting to reach $5.8200, while activating the bullish trend requires a new bullish momentum to push the price to settle above $6.1200, to begin activating new positive stations that might extend in the initial period at 6.2500.
The expected trading range for today is between $5.8200 and $6.100
Trend forecast: Fluctuated within the bullish trend
– Written by
Frank Davies
STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Holds 1.35 as Iran Ceasefire Extended
The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) is holding close to 1.3500, with support intact despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty.
Markets remain range-bound as investors weigh Middle East developments and central bank signals, with GBP/USD trading in a tight 1.34–1.36 range ahead of key US policy updates.
The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has continued to find some support below 1.3500 and is trading close to this level as markets continue to manage elevated economic and political risks.
There are major uncertainties surrounding the Middle East situation, although the overall market moves have been contained with uncertainty whether the next round of bilateral talks in Pakistan will take place. Markets remain hopeful that some form of dialogue will take place which is particularly important given that the current US-Iran ceasefire ends on Wednesday.
Paul Mackel, global head of forex research at HSBC commented; “This binary backdrop of geopolitical risk is keeping a tight grip on forex and as long as talks are happening then the U.S. dollar should be on the backfoot.”
US monetary policy and on-going UK political developments will be market-moving developments.
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UoB expects GBP/USD support will hold; “The current price movements are likely part of a range-trading phase, but the firmer underlying tone suggests GBP is likely to trade in a higher range of 1.3500 and 1.3570.”
Scotiabank added; “We look to potential support in the mid/ lower-1.34s around the clustered 50 and 200 day MA’s and look to a near-term range bound between 1.3480 and 1.3580.”
ING does not expect GBP/USD can sustain any gains and has a 12-month GBP/USD forecast of 1.3300.
Fed Chair nominee Warsh is due to face Senate hearings on Tuesday with comments on interest rates watched closely. At this stage, markets are pricing in around a 30% chance of a rate cut on a 6-month view, but Warsh’s comments could change the expected narrative.
ING commented; “Barring comments on the Fed’s balance sheet that unnerve the long-end of the Treasury and risk assets, Warsh’s comments on the policy rate will probably be a bigger driver of the dollar. With oil prices and short-term inflation expectations high at the moment, comments which see short-dated swap rates and real rates come lower will be dollar negative.”
MUFG however, sees the possibility of dollar support; “US rate market participants are of the view he will leave the door open for rate cuts later this year justified by the potentially disinflationary impact of higher productivity growth. If he sounds more hawkish than expected, it could offer some near-term support for the US dollar.”
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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts
Silver (XAG/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday and moves away from a one-week low, around the $75.50 region, which it touched the previous day. The white metal currently trades near mid-$77.00s, up just over 1% for the day, though the mixed technical setup warrants caution before placing aggressive directional bets.
The XAG/USD holds just above the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart but is capped by the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the recent goodish recovery from the $61.00 mark, or the March swing low. This leaves the near-term tone neutral to slightly bearish. The modest cushion provided by the 200-SMA suggests underlying demand on dips.
Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator remains below zero with a negative reading, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers near 44. Both the momentum indicators hint that recovery attempts may struggle while the XAG/USD trades under the nearby Fibonacci barrier.
A sustained strength beyond the 23.6% retracement at $77.76 should pave the way for additional gains. Further upside hurdles, however, only emerge toward the cycle high reference at $82.90. On the downside, initial support is seen at the 200-period SMA at $76.58, followed by a more substantial Fibonacci cluster at the 38.2% retracement near $74.59.
A convincing break below the latter would expose deeper supports at $72.02 and $69.46, corresponding to the 50.0% and 61.8% retracements of the broader upswing.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets.
Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold’s. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices.
Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices.
Silver prices tend to follow Gold’s moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.
The Dollar to Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate held just below the 160 level, with the pair trading near multi-year highs as yen weakness persists.
Rabobank notes that the Japanese Yen is the weakest-performing G10 currency both month-to-date and year-to-date, with USD/JPY supported by yield differentials and cautious Bank of Japan policy expectations.
The bank highlights that gains beyond 160 have so far been limited by the risk of intervention from Japan’s Ministry of Finance, while uncertainty over near-term BoJ policy is also capping moves.
Rabobank expects upcoming policy decisions from both the BoJ and Federal Reserve to be key drivers, warning that the absence of a BoJ rate hike could push the pair higher.
“The absence of a rate hike from the BoJ… could propel the currency pair above 160.”
At the same time, the bank notes that expectations for tightening have become less certain, despite earlier hawkish signals from Governor Ueda, with markets now less confident about the timing of the next move.
Rabobank forecasts the Dollar to Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) will fall to 158 within 3 months and to 152 over a 6-month horizon, assuming a more hawkish stance from the BoJ alongside an easing bias from the Federal Reserve.
The risk of intervention is expected to remain a key factor if USD/JPY moves higher, particularly near the 160 level.
“The chances of a re-test of the USD/JPY160 level will increase.”