USD

• The Fed left interest rates unchanged as
  expected at the last meeting and dropped the tightening bias in the statement.
• The US CPI
  yesterday beat expectations for the second consecutive month but it didn’t
  change the market’s pricing for rate cuts.
• The NFP report beat
  expectations on the headline number, but the unemployment rate and the average
  hourly earnings missed notably.
• The latest US ISM
  Manufacturing PMI missed expectations by a big margin
  remaining in contraction with the US ISM Services
  PMI
  following suit but holding on in expansion.
• The US Consumer
  Confidence missed expectations across the board.
• The market expects the first rate cut in June.

NZD

• The RBNZ kept its official cash rate
  unchanged dropping
  the tightening bias and stating that the OCR will need to remain at restrictive
  level for a sustained period.
• The latest New Zealand inflation data printed in line with expectations
  supporting the RBNZ’s patient stance.
• The labour market report beat expectations across the
  board with lower than expected unemployment rate and higher wage growth.
• The Manufacturing PMI improved in January remaining in
  contraction while the Services PMI jumped back into expansion.
• The market expects the first cut in
  August.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can see that NZDUSD bounced
on the key 0.6050 support and
rallied strongly into the swing level at 0.6218 where the price got rejected
from. This is the level that the buyers will need to break to start targeting
new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in at the swing
level again if the price gets there to position for a drop back into the key
support targeting a break below it.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the price
spiked to the downside following the US CPI report and eventually pulled back
into the resistance zone around the 0.6160 level where we had the confluence with the
red 21 moving average and the
downward trendline. This is
where the sellers stepped in with a defined risk above the resistance to
position for a drop into the key support zone. The buyers, on the other hand,
will want to see the price breaking higher to invalidate the bearish setup and
position for a break above the 0.6218 level.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis –
1 hour Timeframe

On the
1 hour chart, we can see more closely the recent price action with the sellers coming
into the market at the resistance zone. If the price were to break below the black
counter-trendline we can expect the sellers to increase the bearish bets into
the key support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, should lean on the
counter-trendline to position for a break above the downward trendline with a
better risk to reward setup.

Upcoming Events

Tomorrow we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the
US Jobless Claims figures. On Friday, we conclude the week with the New Zealand
Manufacturing PMI and later in the day, the University of Michigan Consumer
Sentiment survey.