Oil touched the lowest levels of March today but bounced back and was solidly higher mid-way through US trading before fading to finish nearly unchanged at $77.93.

WTI crude has been flirting with $80 for two weeks but hasn’t been able to break though, despite some positive headlines. It might take a round of US dollar weakness to make it happen, or tightening inventory data. There is some focus today on demand estimates after Saudi Arabian hinted at lower demand growth than OPEC. The thinking is that OPEC is poised to lower its estimates.

At present, OPEC sees 2.25 mbpd in growth compared to 1.22 mbpd at the IEA. That difference is a big part of remaining OPEC spare capacity.

On the chart, there is still a nice series of higher lows but the bulls will want to see higher highs before the month is through.