Modified: Monday, 20 July 2026 21:01 BST

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Forecast: UK Employment Report Set to Drive Next GBP/USD Move

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was little changed on Monday as Andy Burnham delivered his first speech since taking office as UK Prime Minister.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was holding steady at $1.3449, having traded broadly unchanged throughout the day.

The Pound (GBP) traded without much direction on Monday, as markets responded cautiously to Andy Burnham’s first speech since becoming Prime Minister.

While Burnham set out his broader vision for the government, he stopped short of providing detailed policy announcements, instead saying that plans to tackle the cost of living, along with details on how they would be funded, would be unveiled on Tuesday.

With few concrete measures to assess, Sterling saw only limited movement throughout the session.

A quiet UK economic calendar also left the Pound without any meaningful domestic data to influence trading.

The US Dollar (USD) moved within a fairly tight range on Monday, slipping at the start of the session before recovering those losses as trading progressed.

Renewed tensions in the Middle East helped the ‘Greenback’ regain some support after its early decline, although financial markets continued to show notable resilience.

Despite the conflict escalating, with the US and Iran continuing to exchange attacks, hopes remain that diplomatic efforts could still prevent a further deterioration in relations.

On Monday, a spokesperson for Iran’s foreign ministry said diplomatic contact between Tehran and Washington was continuing.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: UK Labour Market Data Takes Centre Stage

Attention turns to the UK’s latest employment figures on Tuesday. Economists expect unemployment to have edged up from 4.9% to 5% in the three months to May, although a projected increase in employment could help offset some of the negative impact.

Sterling traders will also be watching the latest wage growth figures. If earnings remain strong, the Pound may prove more resilient.

For the US Dollar, broader market sentiment is likely to remain the key driver. If concerns over the worsening Middle East conflict continue to dampen risk appetite, the safe-haven ‘Greenback’ could attract further demand.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts