Quick overview

Silver is no longer just a “precious metal”, it has become the primary financial barometer for global instability. As of today, Sunday, March 1, 2026, silver (XAG/USD) is ending the week with an explosive surge, trading in the $93.80–$94.50 range. This nearly 8% single-day gain follows the dramatic escalation of the US-Israel-Iran conflict, specifically the reported strikes on Tehran and the subsequent death of Iran’s Supreme Leader.

With the Strait of Hormuz facing a potential blockade and safe-haven demand hitting fever pitch, the “Silver Squeeze” of 2026 is entering a parabolic phase. When markets reopen on Monday, March 2, traders are bracing for a massive gap-up that could finally push silver into triple-digit territory.

The Fundamental Fire: War, Tariffs, and a 67M Ounce Deficit

The current rally is being supercharged by a “Triple-Engine” catalyst that gold simply cannot match:

1. The “Epic Fury” Risk Premium

Following the US-Israeli joint military operations (dubbed “Epic Fury” and “Roaring Lion”), geopolitical risk has reached a decade-high. Silver’s reaction, surging 8% compared to gold’s 2%, confirms its status as a “high-beta” safe haven. Investors are fleeing equities and the dollar, rotating into silver as a hedge against a prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.

1. The COMEX Liquidity Trap

A critical “paper vs. physical” disconnect is emerging. Recent reports of a 159-million-ounce sell order triggering a CME trading halt have raised alarms, as the order far exceeded the registered inventory available for delivery. With March First Notice Day approaching and registered stocks under 60 million ounces, the physical market is tighter than at any point since the 1970s.

1. The $100 “Institutional Target”

Major banks are rapidly revising their year-end targets. Deutsche Bank recently signaled that the current gold-to-silver ratio of 57 presents a significant upside risk to their $100/oz forecast. Meanwhile, billionaire Eric Sprott has warned that if the physical supply drain continues, a “revaluation shock” could eventually target the $300 mark.

 [[XAG/USD-graph]]

Silver Technical Outlook: The Path to $104.14

On the 4-hour chart, silver is exhibiting a textbook ascending channel breakout. The metal has decisively reclaimed the $91.33 horizontal resistance, flipping it into a rock-solid support floor.

• The Immediate Resistance: $95.00 – $104.14. The $95 level is the final psychological barrier. Once cleared, the channel extension points directly to $104.14 as the next major structural objective.
• Support Safety Net: $91.33. This is the “Line in the Sand” for the bulls. As long as silver holds above this level on a daily closing basis, the parabolic trend remains intact.
• Momentum Warning: The RSI is currently hovering near 70. While this indicates extreme bullish strength, it also signals that the market is entering “overbought” territory. Expect high volatility and potential “stop-hunting” wicks near the Monday open.

The Analyst’s Verdict: Watch the Monday Gap

As a professional analyst, I am advising extreme caution for the Monday open. We are likely to see a “Gap and Run” scenario if the headlines from the Middle East continue to deteriorate. However, silver is famous for its “bull traps”, if diplomatic de-escalation signals emerge over the weekend, we could see a rapid “fill the gap” move back toward $91.

Trade Idea: Look for bullish continuation above $95.00 targeting $104.14.
Stop Loss: Place a tight stop below $91.33 to protect against a “buy the rumor, sell the news” reversal.

Arslan Butt

Lead Markets Analyst – Multi-Asset (FX, Commodities, Crypto)

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.

His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.

His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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