USD/JPY Technical Analysis

The US dollar has rallied a bit during the early hours here against the Japanese yen, but it does look like it’s struggling a bit. I think it’s probably only a matter of time before we do bounce, but getting above the 200-day EMA seems to be a bit of a chore in the short term. Longer term, we’re closer to the bottom of a range than we are at the top. So, I think it does make a certain amount of sense that eventually we will try to reach the top again near the 149 yen level.

AUD/USD Technical Analysis

The Australian dollar has rallied ever so slightly during the session here on Friday, but we find ourselves just hanging around the 0.66 level. Now, while we are in an uptrend, it’s been more of a grind than anything else. What I’m watching for is whether or not we start falling from here because if we break down below the Friday candlestick of last week, that actually makes a lower high and a lower low, the beginning of a downtrend.

To the upside, if we can break above the 0.6650 level, we may challenge 0.67, but the Australian dollar has very little in the way of momentum and has been in this attitude since the middle of April. So, with that being the case, I’m not overly impressed, but this is a market that I think continues to be very choppy more than anything else.

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Created on October 03, 2025

• The US dollar has been very noisy overall, as we have seen a lot of questions asked of the dollar against the Japanese yen.
• We are falling toward the bottom of the previous consolidation area, and it is worth noting that the 146 yen level has been massive support, and we did bounce from there to show signs of life.

50 Day EMA

At the top of the candlestick, we have the 50 day EMA. And if we can break above there, it’s possible that we could go look into the 149 yen level. That is the top of the previous consolidation range. And therefore, a lot of people will be looking at it very intently. Anything above there opens up the possibility of moving to the 151 yen level. This is a market that I think given enough time, we’ll have to make a bigger decision. But right now, the interest rate differential still favors the U.S. dollar of the Japanese yen.

And that, of course, makes quite a bit of sense that traders would be willing to buy on the dips. The last couple of days have been rather rough for the US dollar against the Japanese yen. But we are seeing the US dollar fight against other currencies around the world, not just the yen. So, I’m looking for a balance here. If we were to break down below the 145.50 yen level, then I think that throws that narrative out the window.

Nonetheless, this is a market that I’ve been collecting swap in for quite some time, buying dips, selling bounces, that type of thing. Ultimately, the 50 day EMA and the 200 day EMA indicators are sitting on top of each other and flat showing signs of hesitation, just sideways action. And that action will continue to be sideways. I think the main theory and main theme here of what’s going on, but given enough time, I do favor the upside.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on October 03, 2025

• We’ve been all over the place during the trading session here on Thursday as we continue to see a lot of questions asked about the euro in general, because we have been trying everything we can to break out to the upside, but we just can’t seem to do it.
• That being said, I also look at this as a market that continues to look at the 50 day EMA as a potential floor in the market right along with an uptrend line underneath there.

The rally that we have seen over the last four days has failed. Typically, it’ll happen in Asia, maybe drift into Europe a little bit. By the time the Americans get back on, the euro has been selling off.

Noise Above?

The 1.18 level above is significant resistance, and I think we need to watch that very closely. If we can get above there on a daily close, then the market could go to the 1.19 level, possibly even the 1.20 level. If we break down below that uptrend line, underneath that offer support, it opens up 1.16 as a potential target. If we break down below there, then the 1.14 level could very well be the next target. Ultimately, if we really start to break down at this point, I think you’ll see the US dollar shrink in against everything, not just the euro. It is worth noting that the absolute peak of the euro on this run has been during the FOMC meeting and press conference, and we’ve pretty much struggled since then. So, what that tells me is that the market is telling you something different than the narrative of the US dollar falling apart. I’m watching this trend line very closely because we break down below there, things could get interesting to the downside.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

The GBPJPY pair remains affected by the negative pressure that comes from stochastic reach to the oversold level, to notice its attempt to reach below the support at 197.80, facing the moving average 55 then bouncing again to settle above the support as appears in the above image.

The stability above the current support will increase the chances of renewing the bullish attempts, to expect targeting some positive stations by its rally towards 198.80 and 199.80, while moving to the negative track requires forming strong bearish waves, to surpass the moving average 55, then target 196.30 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.55 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair kept its positive stability above the extra support level at 172.20, which allowed it to achieve some gains, to notice its rally towards 173.20, approaching from the initial barrier at 173.40 level.

By the above image, we notice stochastic attempt to exit the oversold level, opening the way for more of the positive stations by its rally to 174.40, while suffering new negative pressure and reaching below 172.20 might push it to attack the support of the main bullish channel at 171.45 before any attempt to hit the positive targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 172.20 and 173.70

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: Bond-Market Jitters Keep GBP Under Pressure

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) continues to stall at resistance near 1.3520, with UoB analysts expecting range trading between 1.3360 and 1.3525. Scotiabank is more upbeat, highlighting Sterling’s recovery above its 50-day MA as scope for a sustained push higher, though bond-market jitters remain a core risk.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Unable to Break Resistance

The Pound to Dollar rate again challenged resistance above 1.3500 on Thursday but failed to hold the gains and retreated to near 1.3450 with another bout of anxiety over UK bonds. Key resistance remains in place around 1.3520/5.

According to UoB; “Yesterday, GBP rose briefly and slightly above 1.3525 (high was 1.3527), before retreating quickly. There has been no clear increase in upward momentum, and we continue to expect GBP to trade between 1.3360 and 1.3525 for now.”

Scotiabank is more confident over the outlook; “We are reassured by the GBP’s push back above its 50 day MA (1.3463) and see scope for a sustained push back above 1.35.”

Longer-term MUFG is not forecasting a GBP/USD move above 1.40 despite dollar vulnerability.

Domestically, the bond market remains a key focus with the latest auction on Thursday.

Scotiabank commented; “The UK bond market is once again in focus, as the latest 10Y gilt auction generated the lowest oversubscription rate since December 2023. The UK’s fiscal outlook remains a core risk for the GBP into the November 26 budget release.

The 10-year yield increased to 4.75% from below 4.70% before a retreat to 4.72%.

Markets remain wary over the risk of bonds and the Pound weakening in tandem.

The latest US Challenger data recorded a decline in layoffs to just over 54,000 for September from close to 73,000 the previous year.

For the first nine months of the year, layoffs are still 55% higher than the previous year with the highest figure since 2020.

The layoffs data overall offered some encouragement, but Scotiabank focussed on yesterday’s ADP jobs data.

According to the bank; “ADP is down for two consecutive months and negative in three of the past four. That is hard to ignore as a clear sign of more pronounced labour market weakness.”

The US Supreme Court ruled on Wednesday that Fed Governor Cook is allowed to remain in post for now. The court will hear arguments in January over President Trump’s attempt to fire her.

IG market analyst Tony Sycamore commented; “Market concern about the Fed’s independence now moves to the backburner for the next few months.”

MUFG still pointed to longer-term risks; “Without an open Fed Governor seat, President Trump will now likely need to use Stephen Miran’s seat to potentially bring in his candidate to be the next Fed Chair unless he picks an existing Fed Governor to be the next Fed Chair.”

The bank added; “The likelihood of further Fed rate cuts and ongoing threats to the Fed’s independence from the Trump administration are important reasons why we continue to expect further US dollar weakness in the year ahead.”

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Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Pressured by Shutdown and Fed Cut Expectations

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate was largely muted on Thursday despite an ongoing US government shutdown.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at approximately $1.3497, virtually unchanged from the start of Thursday’s session.

The US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure against most of its peers on Thursday, weighed down by the ongoing US government shutdown.

Adding to the Dollar’s struggles was Wednesday’s ADP employment change report, which fell sharply to -32k, well below the expected rise to 50k.

The disappointing reading heightened expectations for future Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, further undermining USD exchange rates during Thursday’s European session.

Meanwhile, a slightly positive market mood also limited the ‘Greenback’s’ appeal on Thursday, as risk-on sentiment weighed on its safe-haven status.

The Pound (GBP) remained largely steady against most of its peers on Thursday, despite a quiet UK economic calendar.

Sterling drew limited support from the broadly positive market sentiment, with its risk-sensitive characteristics allowing it to gain slightly against traditional safe-haven currencies.

However, this same sensitivity to risk meant that GBP struggled against more risk-linked currencies, limiting any meaningful upside.

With no domestic data to drive momentum, the Pound largely drifted throughout Thursday’s European session, finishing the day on a subdued note.

Pound to US Dollar Forecast: UK and US PMIs to Drive Movement

Looking ahead to Friday’s European session, the GBP/USD exchange rate is set to be influenced by the release of the latest services PMIs from both the US and the UK.

In the US, the ISM services PMI will be the only significant data point, as the ongoing government shutdown prevents the publication of the latest non-farm payrolls and unemployment figures.

September’s reading is forecast to dip slightly, though it is still expected to remain above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction.

Should the data meet expectations, it could provide modest support for USD exchange rates.

For the UK, attention will turn to September’s finalised S&P services PMI.

The index is forecast to confirm a slowdown in the country’s key services sector, potentially weighing on investor sentiment towards Sterling.

If the data prints as expected, GBP exchange rates may struggle to gain ground, leaving the Pound vulnerable to renewed pressure as the week comes to a close.

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