– Written by


James Fuller

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Slips as Middle East Tensions Lift the US Dollar

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate weakened on Tuesday, slipping back after striking a near three-week high overnight, as a deterioration in risk appetite pressured the pairing.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3371, down from an overnight peak of $1.3398.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Tuesday, recouping part of Monday evening’s losses, as renewed Middle East tensions pushed investors towards safer assets.

Market sentiment weakened after two commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly hit by projectiles overnight, including a Qatari LNG tanker.

Washington has accused Iran of carrying out the strikes, with the US expected to respond by targeting Iranian sites.

The latest flare-up in geopolitical risk prompted a more defensive mood across global markets, lifting demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.

The Pound (GBP) held up relatively well on Tuesday, with Sterling avoiding sharper losses despite a quiet UK data calendar.

GBP has found support in recent sessions as domestic political uncertainty continues to ease. Following Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s resignation, several potential challengers have reportedly backed frontrunner Andy Burnham.

Markets have responded positively to the prospect of a relatively orderly handover, with months of speculation over Starmer’s position and fears of a damaging leadership contest now seemingly fading. Burnham is widely expected to become Prime Minister without a contest, while keeping the government’s existing fiscal rules in place.

This helped the Pound resist steeper losses against the US Dollar, even as a risk-averse market mood weighed on wider sentiment.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Could Fed Minutes Lift the US Dollar?

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes are due out on Wednesday evening and could drive movement in the US Dollar. If the minutes point to support among policymakers for further interest rate rises, the ‘Greenback’ may strengthen.

Market risk sentiment could also shape the GBP/USD exchange rate. Any further escalation in the Middle East may dampen appetite for risk, potentially boosting the safe-haven US Dollar while weighing on the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.

Meanwhile, Sterling may continue to draw some support from the fading political risk premium that had previously weighed on GBP. However, with Labour leadership nominations set to open on Thursday, the Pound could struggle to find much upside.

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EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish in the medium term, with temporary corrective recovery attempts.

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1415 – 1.1380 – 1.1300

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1530 – 1.1600

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario (with corrective bounce): from the support level of 1.1370, targeting 1.1500, with a stop loss activated below 1.1320.

• Sell scenario (with the main trend): from the resistance level of 1.1500, targeting 1.1400, with a stop-loss order placed above 1.1560.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The EUR/USD pair continues to move under selling pressure amid the ongoing dominance of the bearish trend on the technical front, despite the limited recovery attempts witnessed during recent sessions.

Technical indicators suggest that any current rallies are still classified as corrective movements, unless the pair manages to break through key resistance levels and regain upward momentum. Across the best trading platforms, the Euro-Dollar rate settled around the 1.1441 level at the time of writing this analysis.

According to the general technical outlook, the broader trend for the EUR/USD pair still leans downward over the medium and long term. Meanwhile, the support level of 1.1325, which is the low recorded during June, remains the most prominent support level monitored by traders.

The performance of the EUR/USD price at the beginning of the trading week indicates continuing selling pressures as prices approach influential technical resistance levels. The daily timeframe chart shows that the 21-day Moving Average (MA) continues to act as strong dynamic resistance—a level that has successfully capped upward attempts since mid-May, reinforcing the sellers’ continued control over market price action.

As long as the price settles below the 21-day Moving Average, the most likely scenario remains a resumption of the decline to retest the June low at 1.1325, which represents the most prominent technical target during July.

Conversely, a successful breakout and daily close above the 21-day Moving Average by the currency pair could provide the first signal of fading bearish momentum. However, this development would not be enough to change the general trend as long as the price moves below the 100-day Moving Average and the downward trendline extending from the January peaks.

Therefore, any upward waves at the current time remain merely corrective rebounds rather than the start of a new uptrend.

Regarding momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving below 50, reflecting continued negative momentum, while the MACD remains in negative territory despite the weakening downward momentum. This suggests the possibility of limited bounces before the main trend resumes.

According to fundamental analysis, Euro trading via trusted brokerage platforms received limited support after the Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone improved during July. It is rising from -13.4 to -3.1 to record its third consecutive monthly improvement. Additionally, the Current Situation Assessment Index improved from -20.0 to -14.8, while the Future Expectations Index jumped from -6.5 to 9.3, returning to positive territory for the first time in several months, reflecting growing optimism regarding the European economy.

Despite the positive nature of these figures, their impact on the Euro remained limited, as they did not lead to a tangible rise in European bond yields.

On the monetary policy front in the Eurozone, financial markets indicate a decline in the likelihood of the European Central Bank taking further steps to tighten monetary policy during the remainder of 2026, especially after the release of inflation data that fell short of expectations.

The easing of concerns related to inflationary pressures stemming from geopolitical tensions has also contributed to a reduction in market bets on any further interest rate hikes. This is reflected in the decline in short-term European bond yields, a factor that is not usually favorable for the euro.

According to currency market trading, the performance of the US dollar remains the most influential factor in the EUR/USD pair’s movement during the current period. The recent US jobs report marked a significant turning point, as it came in weaker than market expectations, prompting investors to reduce their bets on further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year.

Overall, the outlook remains bearish as long as the currency pair remains below the 21-day moving average and the main downtrend line. Support at 1.1325 remains the nearest target if selling pressure continues, while buyers need a clear break above key technical resistance levels to change the current picture and pave the way for a more sustainable recovery.

Trading Advice:

The EUR/USD pair may remain trapped within its current sideways range until major economic catalysts emerge. Regardless of your investment conviction to buy or sell, adherence to strict risk management and position sizing is your only key to staying in the market.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

Platinum price attempted to settle within the minor bearish channel’s levels by its fluctuation near $1605.00 level, taking advantage of the negative factors that are represented by forming main barrier at $1745.00 level, besides the attempt of providing negative momentum by the main indicators, especially by stochastic stability below 80 level.

Therefore, we will keep preferring the bearish trend in the near trading, to expect breaking $1600.00 level and holding below it to begin targeting negative stations, which might begin at $1570.00 and $1510.00.

The expected trading range for today is between $1570.00 and $1650.00

Trend forecast: Bearish 

The EURJPY pair benefited from the positive stability above 184.10 support, forming several bullish waves, achieving some gains by reaching 185.55 level, facing %61.8 Fibonacci correction level, which forces it to decline directly towards 184.90.

The current decline will not threaten the attempt of activating the bullish trend, depending on the stability of the mentioned support, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra bullish momentum to ease the mission of reaching 185.85, and surpassing this barrier will extend the trading towards achieving extra gains that begin at 186.20 and 186.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.60 and 185.85

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair benefited from the positive stability above 184.10 support, forming several bullish waves, achieving some gains by reaching 185.55 level, facing %61.8 Fibonacci correction level, which forces it to decline directly towards 184.90.

The current decline will not threaten the attempt of activating the bullish trend, depending on the stability of the mentioned support, therefore, we will keep waiting for gathering extra bullish momentum to ease the mission of reaching 185.85, and surpassing this barrier will extend the trading towards achieving extra gains that begin at 186.20 and 186.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 184.60 and 185.85

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: ISM Services and UK Politics Leave Pound Sterling Flat

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate traded in a narrow range on Monday, as easing UK political concerns and renewed dip-buying in the US Dollar (USD) left the pairing without a clear direction.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3352, virtually unchanged on the day.

The US Dollar found some support on Monday as US markets reopened after the extended Independence Day break.

The ‘Greenback’ appeared to have drifted into oversold territory following last week’s sharp selloff, which came after the latest non-farm payrolls report revealed a much steeper-than-expected slowdown in job creation.

This encouraged some bargain hunters back into the market, allowing the US Dollar to recoup a portion of its recent losses.

At the same time, the latest ISM services PMI matched forecasts, slipping from 54.5 in May to 54 in June. While the reading pointed to a modest loss of momentum, it remained comfortably in expansion territory, suggesting the US services sector was still performing relatively well.

The Pound (GBP) remained resilient on Monday as investors continued to unwind some of the political risk premium that had recently weighed on Sterling.

Markets appear increasingly convinced that MP Andy Burnham will become the next Prime Minister without a prolonged Labour leadership contest causing further uncertainty.

Since announcing his bid for the Labour leadership, Burnham has attempted to calm market nerves by pledging to stick to the government’s current fiscal rules, while also setting out an ambitious economic agenda.

This has helped reassure GBP investors, allowing Sterling to hold firm as fears over UK political instability continue to fade.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Jobs Data to Lift the US Dollar?

Looking ahead, Tuesday’s data calendar is relatively quiet, with the US weekly ADP employment change figure the only notable release.

Although not a top-tier indicator, the report could still lend the US Dollar some support if it points to solid growth in private-sector hiring.

Beyond the data, broader market sentiment may also drive movement in the pairing. A weaker appetite for risk could favour the safe-haven US Dollar, while a brighter mood may help the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound.

As a result, any shifts in risk appetite could leave GBP/USD trading unevenly.

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Goldman Sachs revised its 12-month USD/JPY forecast to 165 from 155 on July 6, 2026, placing it among the most bearish calls in Bloomberg’s surveyed consensus, as strategist Karen Reichgott Fishman cited Japan’s fiscal pressures, persistently elevated US Treasury yields, and only gradual Bank of Japan rate hikes as the structural drivers of continued yen depreciation.

The yen was trading at 161.79 per dollar in early Asian trading that Monday, down 0.3% on the session and near its weakest level since 1986, cementing its position as one of the worst-performing major currencies in 2026.

Goldman’s three-month target moved to 162 from 160, and its six-month target to 163 from 158 – a consistent upward shift across the entire forward curve that signals conviction rather than a single-point revision.

Foreign exchange options markets are aligned: traders assign roughly a 72% probability that USD/JPY reaches 165 by June 2027, per Bloomberg data, while hedge fund net short positioning on the yen hit its most extreme level since 2017 last month.

Goldman Sachs News: How Japan’s Debt Dynamics and Higher-for-Longer US Treasury Yields Drive the 165 Call

Goldman Sachs outlook hinges on the rate differential between US Treasuries and Japanese Government Bonds, suggesting continued depreciation pressure on the yen despite its current undervaluation.

With the Federal Reserve maintaining high rates and elevated Treasury yields, capital is shifting from yen-denominated to dollar-denominated assets, exerting ongoing selling pressure on the JPY.

Japan’s fiscal challenges worsen the situation, as high debt servicing costs limit policy flexibility and undermine efforts to defend the yen.

Mark Cranfield from Bloomberg highlights that investors remember the significant drop in USD/JPY in the 1980s, indicating that the current 160–165 range isn’t unprecedented.

Gradual Bank of Japan Hikes: Why the Tightening Path Is Too Slow to Close the Rate Gap and Arrest Yen Weakness

The Bank of Japan ended its negative-rate policy and yield-curve control in early 2025 but maintains a near-zero policy rate, emphasizing gradualism to protect growth.

A modest 25-basis-point hike does not close the gap with US rates, keeping the yen a low-yield funding currency. Goldman Sachs believes the BOJ’s tightening will remain too slow to impact its 12-month forecast.

The August 2024 rate surprise showed that such assumptions can lead to rapid yen rallies, compressing USD/JPY and triggering volatility across equities and crypto.

This incident highlighted the risks of crowded yen short positions, making Goldman Sachs 165 target a cautious base case with significant tail risks.

Yen as Funding Currency: Goldman Sachs Carry Trade Endorsement and the Risk-Asset Implications of Extended Yen Weakness

Goldman endorses the yen carry trade, leveraging low JPY borrowing to invest in higher-yielding assets, expecting this strategy to remain viable through mid-2027 due to persistent yen weakness.

This scenario supports broader risk-on behavior in equities, credit, and crypto markets. However, the significant short-yen positioning among hedge funds raises concerns; any sudden yen strength could lead to a disorderly unwinding of carry trades.

This is reminiscent of the sharp crypto volatility seen in August 2024, with the potential unwind now greater due to extended positioning.

Official Intervention: Why Goldman Expects Any Ministry of Finance Defense of the Yen to Be Short-Lived Against Macro Headwinds

🇯🇵 JAPAN MAY BE FORCED TO SPEND $100 BILLION TO SAVE THE YEN.

USD/JPY just hit 162.66, the highest level in 40 years.

Japan already tried to fix this. In late April and early May, it spent roughly $72-$73 billion defending the yen, its biggest intervention in years.

It failed.… pic.twitter.com/bPkPBH4l2d

— Bull Theory (@BullTheoryio) June 30, 2026

Japan’s Ministry of Finance is believed to have intervened in late April and early May when USD/JPY briefly exceeded 160, with BOJ data showing a drop in current account balances consistent with FX support operations totaling about ¥9.8 trillion (around $62 billionBn).

Fishman notes that while such interventions may buy time, they do not change the yen’s structural weakness. Goldman’s view suggests that macro headwinds, yield gaps, and the BOJ’s limited pace of easing will overwhelm policy efforts over the next year.

While interventions can temporarily compress USD/JPY by several hundred pips, without significant shifts in interest-rate differentials, such actions historically reverse. The 165 target reflects potential intervention without suggesting a lasting trend reversal.

The author does not hold any position in the securities discussed in the article.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Dollar Week Ahead Forecast: Weak US Jobs Data Puts Fed Outlook in Focus

The Euro to Dollar exchange rate (EUR/USD) has stabilised above the 1.14 level after weaker-than-expected US jobs data prompted investors to reassess expectations for further Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes.

While the softer labour market report has eased some of the Dollar’s recent momentum, analysts remain divided over whether the pause is temporary or the start of a broader reversal.

EUR/USD Forecasts: Fed policy crucial

Danske Bank maintains a 12-month Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD forecast of 1.12 as the US raises interest rates.

In contrast, Scotiabank is still backing EUR/USD gains to 1.22 by the end of 2026 as yields don’t back dollar gains.

EUR/USD again found support below 1.14 during the week and secured a limited net recovery to near 1.1450.

Interest rate expectations will be a key element with a particular focus on the Federal Reserve. Danske Bank commented; “We forecast two hikes for December and March. We see relative monetary policy as a negative driver for EUR/USD, especially towards 2027.”

The latest US employment report was weaker than expected with the increase in non-farm payrolls held to 57,000 for June compared with consensus forecasts of around 115,000. The main feature was a sharp drop in the labour force.

In response, there were fresh doubts whether the Fed would hike interest rates which curbed dollar support.

MUFG commented; “the tariffs implemented in 2025 are set to fall out of the annual CPI calculations over the coming months that will add downside pressure to annual inflation while a quirk in rental inflation should also reverse in H2. That will help ease Fed concerns over inflation risks that should see yields decline going forward.”

It added; “Apart from the RBNZ, no other G10 central bank has as much tightening priced as the Fed and hence there is scope for US yields to fall relative to elsewhere. This should see this recent dollar buying momentum reverse. We would also expect some renewed focus on US fiscal risks.”

Scotiabank also considers Fed expectations have overshot; “We see the USD’s latest gains as being counter to the longer-term fundamental trend, and see little upside from current levels.

It added; “The Fed’s belated reaction to the inflationary pressures arising from the US/Iran conflict have delivered a material reappraisal of its policy path. However, we believe that the Fed’s repricing is overdone while also suspecting that markets may be underestimating the hawkish appetites of the BoC, ECB, and BoE (as well as the BoJ).”

Danske still sees scope for net Euro losses; “We turned our EUR/USD forecast profile lower in May as we saw a structural shift in relative macro and monetary policy drivers. The moderation in energy prices is EUR-positive in isolation, but the fact that EUR/USD has still declined over the past month supports our view that the cross will be driven lower by more long-term factors.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

The British Pound has strengthened against both the Euro and the US Dollar following signs that political uncertainty in the UK is easing, with EUR/GBP falling to around 0.8550 and GBP/USD holding above 1.3350.

JPMorgan has turned more constructive on Sterling, upgrading its 2026 forecasts following Andy Burnham’s reassuring commitment to the UK’s fiscal rules.

The bank is now bullish on the Pound against lower-yielding currencies and has trimmed its EUR/GBP forecasts.

JPMorgan now expects EUR/GBP at 0.87 in the third quarter, 0.88 in the fourth quarter, 0.89 in one year and 0.86 over the longer term.

According to the bank, Burnham’s communication around fiscal discipline has reduced political risk and should support Sterling over the coming months.

However, JPMorgan cautions that the current improvement may prove temporary.

As the Labour Party conference approaches in September, investors could begin rebuilding a political risk premium depending on the details of future fiscal policy.

The bank remains broadly constructive on Sterling, although it notes that the outlook for GBP/USD is mixed because it also depends on the direction of the US Dollar.

JPMorgan forecasts GBP/USD at 1.28 over the next quarter and 1.28 on a one-year view.

JPMorgan believes easing political uncertainty has improved the near-term outlook for the Pound, but fiscal policy announcements later this year will determine whether Sterling can extend its recent gains.

The US dollar initially dropped on Friday but has turned around to show signs of life. With this, we continue to see longer-term traders buy into this pair. The interest rate situation continues to favor higher levels.

USD/JPY

The US dollar initially fell during the trading session here on Friday, but then turned around to show signs of life again. The Bank of Japan did intervene over the last couple of days, but quite frankly, there isn’t a whole lot that they can do to change the overall market behavior. This is an area that I think will continue to offer support all the way down to the 160-yen level. Turning around and breaking above the top of the candlestick on Friday would be a good sign, and I do think that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar.

The Bank of Japan and Japan’s Economic Outlook

The Japanese yen is in serious trouble. I think they have to look at this through the prism of the massive amount of debt in Japan, which just cannot be serviced with high rates. If that’s going to remain the case, then it’s only a matter of time before we go much higher.

Longer-term, I think we go as high as 244 yen. Right now, 224 yen is a measured move of the rounding bottom. Ultimately, I think this is a market that will remain choppy, and it will get intervened in occasionally, but I look at these drops in price as value. The interest rate differential remains huge.

Yes, I understand that the Bank of Japan intervened early on Friday, and then the non-farm payroll number came out weaker than anticipated, but we are light years away from the differential closing, and I still like this as a longer-term buy and hold, and I do add every time it drops.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire