Created on September 01, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Neutral with a bullish bias. Support Levels for Today: 1.1630 – 1.1580 – 1.1500.
• Resistance Levels for Today: 1.1740 – 1.1820 – 1.1900.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level at 1.1590 with a target at 1.1800 and stop loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level at 1.1755 with a target at 1.1600 and stop loss at 1.1820.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

The EUR/USD rebounded higher, attempting to break resistance at 1.1700, supported by U.S. inflation data and tensions between Trump and Federal Reserve officials. The pair is trying to maintain most of its gains this year as markets assess global interest rate expectations and ECB policy amid growth slowdown concerns. According to recent economic calendar data, Germany’s inflation accelerated above expectations, surpassing 2%, while inflation in France, Italy, and Spain came in weaker at 0.8%, 1.7%, and 2.7% respectively. Overall, futures contracts suggest limited ECB rate cuts this year, although U.S. tariffs and weak growth still keep some expectations alive for potential cuts later in the year.

In the U.S., continued inflation and strong consumer spending in July highlight the challenge facing the Fed in cutting rates amid a weak labor market. According to forex trading platforms’ performance, the euro has gained 11% against the dollar so far this year, supported by European stimulus plans and U.S. financial uncertainty.

Will EUR/USD Rise This Week?

According to currency analysts, there are chances for EUR/USD to rise further if this week’s U.S. jobs data comes in weaker than expected, especially since markets are cautiously monitoring the Fed’s decision this month regarding a possible rate cut. Technically, the latest gains have pushed the RSI (14-day) toward 53, above the neutral line, while the MACD also confirms bullish momentum. However, bulls need more catalysts to fully confirm control, with the 1.1800 resistance break remaining the key signal.

Today’s EUR/USD trading will react to the Federal Reserve’s preferred US inflation reading, along with the Eurozone’s manufacturing and services PMI readings. Currency traders will be monitoring whether the EUR/USD pair can reclaim the 1.17 level, as concerns about the Federal Reserve and political pressure on the central bank continue to undermine the US dollar’s support.

Market sentiment toward the dollar remains negative as investors worry about U.S. political interference in the Fed, while political fears in the Eurozone have eased slightly. Today’s U.S. holiday may lower liquidity and affect trading performance.

Factors Affecting USD Trading:

According to forex experts, Fed policy and Trump’s pressure on the central bank remain key elements. For the September meeting, markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a rate cut. However, U.S. economic data has recently been slightly stronger than expected, reducing near-term aggressive selling pressure on the dollar. U.S. Q2 GDP was revised up to 3.3% annually from 3.0%, while initial jobless claims fell to 229,000 from 234,000 previously.

On the other front affecting currency exchange rates, political concerns in the eurozone have eased slightly, although significant tensions remain. The French government faces a confidence vote in the National Assembly on September 8, and if the outcome leads to unfavorable market outcomes, the door is open to further euro weakness. However, forex analysts view the situation with caution and warn that this is not a decisive moment for the euro, which will benefit from France’s previous improved economic growth and strong support from the European Central Bank.

Trading Tips:

Traders recommend selling EUR/USD on every upward move, avoiding excessive risk, and closely monitoring market-moving factors until the Fed meeting later this month.

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Created on September 01, 2025

• The British pound initially fell during the trading session on Friday, but it looks like the 50-day EMA is in fact going to give it a little bit of support.
• This probably shouldn’t be too much of a surprise because where does the strength in the British pound come from? It comes from America.
• So, the biggest thing here, I think, is the fact that US traders think that the US dollar falling is a good thing.

They are focusing on the fact that PCE numbers came out as expected. So, everybody still expects to see the Federal Reserve cut rates. Now, while that may be true, the reality is that the US dollar hasn’t exactly imploded since we got confirmation by the Fed that they’re at least thinking about cutting rates.

In fact, the massive candlestick from last week that was a result of this ended up closing right about where we are now. So, in other words, we’ve bounced around and not really gotten anywhere. Because of this, I think you have a situation where traders are looking at this through the prism of a market that is somewhat lost and confused, but it is trying to sort itself out. The 1.36 level above, I believe, is a significant resistance barrier, while the 1.34 level below is significant support.

We are Lost

In the meantime, this is a market that is just simply trying to figure out where to go longer term. The fact that we are sideways at this point doesn’t surprise me at all, mainly due to the fact that we are at the end of vacation season and a lot of institutional volume probably isn’t there. Once we break out of this 200 point range, the implied move is 200 points either higher or lower, which means if we were to drop to the downside, we would go hunting for the 200 day EMA.

If we break out to the upside, you’d be looking at the 1.38 level, which was an area of resistance during the previous massive swing high. So, I think it all lines up quite nicely. But right now, this is a market that doesn’t know where it wants to go.

Ready to trade the Forex GBP/USD analysis and predictions? Here are the best forex trading platforms UK to choose from.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound to Dollar Forecast: GBP Tipped to Break 1.38 Against USD

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) traded steadily around 1.35 last week, but the outlook is shifting as UBS forecasts a break above 1.38 with scope to challenge 1.40.

Dollar sentiment remains fragile amid growing fears over Federal Reserve independence, with President Trump locked in legal battles over control of the central bank.

Analysts remain divided, with UBS highlighting UK rate-cut delays as a source of Pound support, while HSBC warns that looming tax hikes could weigh on Sterling’s longer-term outlook.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Fears

UBS expects the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate will break above 1.38 and challenge the key 1.40 area

GBP/USD was little changed during the week and traded around 1.35.

According to UBS Bank of England policy will be a key element; “the risk of a delay of the next rate cut has risen. This should lend further carry support to the GBP over the coming months.”

HSBC, however, remains cautious over the UK outlook; “With Labour backbench MPs against spending cuts and bond markets constraining new borrowing, chancellor Rachel Reeves is expected to raise taxes. News reports have speculated on a range of potential measures, including a possible surcharge or levy on banks that might hurt economic growth and weigh on GBP.”

Dollar developments are likely to dominate in the short term, especially with another key jobs report at the end of this week.

The Administration is continuing to push strongly for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

President Trump is also engaged in a legal battle to fire Fed Governor Cook as well as gaining greater control of the central bank. The dispute is heading for the Supreme Court and the issue of reciprocal tariffs is also heading for the highest court after an appeals court ruled against the Administration.

Rabobank commented; “The administration is reportedly looking for ways to offer positions at the helm of regional banks as consolidation prize to those candidates who do not get selected as Powell’s replacement. It has not become clearer how Trump plans to achieve this exactly – or if he can. But the broadening of Trump’s attacks on the Fed should be more concerning.”

Scotiabank commented; “The USD has given back much of the July rebound over the course of August and we anticipate more losses in the months ahead behind easier Fed policy and investor convers over challenges facing US institutions.

There is a risk of unintended consequences which could damage the economy.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia currency strategist Carol Kong commented; “If markets perceive the FOMC’s independence as compromised, inflation expectations could become unanchored, driving long term interest rates higher.”

BNP Paribas considers that the Fed may have to compromise to avoid serious destabilisation; “Defusing a frontal clash with the White House, and thereby reducing the risks of an FOMC that would pursue overly stimulative monetary policy during that window, is the best way to entrench the soft landing Powell’s Fed has so far delivered.”

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The EURJPY pair began receiving extra positive momentum, to form bullish moves to settle near 172.10, confirming the stability of the suggested bullish scenario.

The main stability within the main bullish channel levels, forming extra support at170.45 level, these factors help to renew the bullish attempts, to expect surpassing 172.45 level and reaching the next target at 173.40, attempting to find an exit for resuming the bullish attack in the upcoming period trading.

The expected trading range for today is between 171.60 and 173.40

Trend forecast: Bullish

The USD/JPY exchange rate remained in a consolidation phase last week as traders focused on the upcoming actions by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve. It was trading at 147, where it has remained in the past few days. It has dropped by over 7.5% from the year-to-date high.

US nonfarm payrolls data

The USD/JPY exchange rate was unchanged as traders wait for the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data. Economists expect the data to show that the economy expanded by just 78,000 in August, a slight improvement from the 73,000 it added in the previous month. 

Based on the recent trends, it is likely that the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will downgrade the estimate of the July jobs report. In its last report, it downgraded the May and June jobs reports to show that the economy created an average of 35,000 jobs in May and June.

The upcoming jobs report is important because it is what the Federal Reserve is focusing on when making it interest rates. If the jobs numbers come short of expectations, they will boost the odds that the Fed will cut interest rates by 0.25%.

On the other hand, recent data sent mixed signals on the Japanese economy. In Tokyo, the headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.6% in July, while the core CPI jumped 3.0%.

Tokyo’s inflation eased mostly because of the government’s subsidies, suggesting that things are not going on well. The tight labor market means that inflation will remain at an elevated level for a while. 

At the same time, the country’s industrial production is weakening, complicating the BoJ’s outlook. In a note, analysts at ING wrote that:

“We continue to believe that the Bank of Japan will deliver a 25 hike in October thanks to reduced uncertainty over US tariffs and firm inflation. But the BoJ’s concern about weak growth may have increased after today’s weak activity data.”

USD/JPY technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the USD/JPY exchange rate has plunged in the past few days. It has slumped from a high of 150, its highest point in July to the current 147. 

The pair has formed a bearish flag chart pattern, which is comprised of a vertical line and an ascending channel. It has formed an inverse cup-and-handle pattern. 

Therefore, the pair will likely continue falling, with the next point to watch being at 145.

The post USD/JPY forecast ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls data appeared first on Invezz

Economists expect average cash earnings to rise 3% year-on-year in July, up from 2.5% in June. A pickup in wage growth could boost households’ disposable income and spending, raising demand-driven inflation. On the other hand, softer wage growth could dampen spending and inflation, supporting a less hawkish BoJ rate path.

Why do wage growth and household spending matter for traders and the Bank of Japan?

StockMarket.News remarked on upward trends in wages, stating:

“A tight labor market is fueling this. Companies are being forced to raise wages, which boosts household income and spending. More spending sustains higher prices. Once wage growth feeds inflation, it becomes harder for a central bank to ignore. Japan is reaching that point.”

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda recently commented on wages:

“Notably, wage growth is spreading from large enterprises to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Barring a major negative demand shock, the labor market is expected to remain tight and continue to exert upward pressure on wages.”

Bookmark our real-time updates to stay ahead of USD/JPY volatility.

USD/JPY Outlook: Economic Indicators and the BoJ

• Bullish Yen Scenario: Stronger Japanese data or hawkish BoJ rhetoric could push USD/JPY toward 145.
• Bearish Yen Scenario: Weaker Japanese data or dovish BoJ signals may send the pair toward 150.

US Jobs Report to Fuel Fed Rate Cut Bets and Drive US Dollar Trends

In the US, crucial labor market data, services sector PMI, and Fed speakers will provide traders with clues on the timing of Fed rate cuts.

Key events include:

• JOLTs Job Openings (September 3): Forecast to increase from 7.437 million in June to 7.5 million in July.
• ADP Employment Change (September 4): Expected to rise 72k in August after increasing 104k in July.
• Initial Jobless Claims (September 4): Forecast to rise from 229k (week ending August 23) to 232k (week ending August 30).
• ISM Services PMI (September 4): Expected to rise from 50.1 in July to 50.5 in August.
• Unemployment Rate (September 5): Forecast to rise from 4.2% in July to 4.3% in August.
• Nonfarm Payrolls (September 5): Expected to increase 78k in August after a 73k rise in July.
• Average Hourly Earnings (September 5): Forecast to rise 3.9% year-on-year in August, mirroring July’s increase.

A lower ISM Services PMI reading, higher unemployment, and softer wage growth could fuel speculation about multiple Fed rate cuts. A more dovish Fed policy stance could weigh on US dollar demand. Conversely, a sharp increase in the Services PMI and better-than-expected labor market data could affect Fed rate cut bets. A more hawkish Fed rate path would boost appetite for the US dollar.

Beyond the data, Fed speakers will also require close monitoring as the labor market takes center stage. Fed Chair Powell recently hinted at a Fed rate cut, citing a cooling labor market.

Short-term Forecast:

USD/JPY’s near-term outlook will hinge on key economic data and central bank commentary.

• Bullish US Dollar Scenario: Strong US data or hawkish Fed rhetoric may send USD/JPY toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).
• Bearish US Dollar Scenario: Softer US data or dovish Fed chatter could push USD/JPY below the 50-day EMA, exposing the 145 support level.

USD/JPY Price Action

Daily Chart

On the daily chart, the USD/JPY trades above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) but below the 200-day EMA. The EMAs signal a bullish near-term but bearish longer-term bias.

A breakout above the 147.5 level could pave the way toward the 200-day EMA. A sustained move through the 200-day EMA may enable the bulls to target the 149.458 resistance level.

On the downside, a drop below the 50-day EMA could bring the August 14 low of 146.214 into play. If breached, 145 would be the next key support level.

USD/JPY (JPY=X) Holds 146.99 as Dollar Strength Offsets BoJ Caution

The USD/JPY (JPY=X) pair closed the week at 146.99, extending a period of tight trading inside the 146.20–148.76 corridor. The market remains indecisive, yet technicals and macro conditions suggest an imminent breakout. A decisive push above 148.76 would reopen the path toward the July high at 150.90, while a sustained break under 146.20 would flip momentum lower, exposing 142.66 as the next support zone.

Federal Reserve Policy Keeps USD Momentum Intact

Dollar resilience continues to hinge on U.S. macro strength and the Federal Reserve’s tone. Second-quarter GDP expanded at an annualized 3.3%, far outpacing the 3.1% forecast and reversing the contraction seen earlier in the year. Jobless claims at 229,000 underscored labor market resilience, while the PCE Price Index rose 0.2% MoM in July, with the core figure advancing 0.3% MoM and 2.9% YoY. With inflation still running hot, the Fed held its policy rate steady at 4.25%–4.50%, but markets are pricing in an 85% chance of a September rate cut. The hesitation from Chair Powell to commit to easing supported the dollar, with Treasury yields hovering near 4.20%, keeping USD/JPY underpinned.

Bank of Japan’s Reluctance to Tighten Widens Policy Gap

The Bank of Japan left its policy rate anchored at 0.40%–0.50%, signaling that it is prepared to adjust higher if inflation stays persistent, but avoiding premature moves that could destabilize growth. This stance preserves a rate differential of over 400 basis points against the U.S., continuing to weigh on the yen. Intervention risk remains in play if USD/JPY retests the 150–151 zone, but so far, policymakers have opted for patience rather than direct currency action.

Technical Landscape for USD/JPY

The broader structure shows USD/JPY still digesting the correction from the 161.94 peak in 2024 to the 139.87 low in mid-2025. The retracement band between 151.22 (61.8% Fibonacci of the 158.86–139.87 leg) and 161.94 represents the long-term bullish hurdle. If USD/JPY clears these levels, the uptrend that began from 102.58 in 2021 would likely resume toward fresh highs. On the downside, the 38.2% retracement at 139.26 stands as a critical floor should sellers regain control below 146.20.

Macro Environment Pressuring Yen via Trade and Energy Costs

Japan’s trade balance remains under stress from elevated import costs, especially natural gas and LNG, which are denominated in U.S. dollars. European TTF benchmark futures remain above €31 per MWh, keeping energy prices elevated for importers. With USD/JPY above 146, Japan’s import bill expands further, complicating fiscal dynamics and applying more downside to the yen. Global risk appetite also favors dollar holdings, as equity markets in the U.S. continue to attract flows despite rising volatility.

Market Positioning and Risk of Intervention

Speculative data shows net shorts remain dominant against the yen, reflecting expectations that the BoJ will lag its peers for months to come. Corporate hedging activity has increased around the 145–147 range, with exporters using the recent dollar strength to lock in revenue protection. While authorities have intervened before at the 150 level, they appear content for now to tolerate yen weakness as long as moves are orderly. Any sudden spike above 150.90 could revive direct action, but until then, verbal warnings may remain the main tool.

Investment View on USD/JPY (JPY=X)

At 146.99, USD/JPY is sitting at a critical junction. Dollar strength from resilient U.S. data and delayed Fed easing continues to favor upside, while the BoJ’s reluctance to move reinforces structural weakness in the yen. Immediate support rests at 146.20, with failure to defend it risking a slide toward 142.66. Resistance is firm at 148.76, and a breakout above that level would almost certainly send the pair back toward 150.90. Given the data and rate gap, the stance leans Buy on dips above 146.20, with risk management around the downside pivot.

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Important DisclaimersThe content provided on the website includes general news and publications, our personal analysis and opinions, and contents provided by third parties, which are intended for educational and research purposes only. It does not constitute, and should not be read as, any recommendation or advice to take any action whatsoever, including to make any investment or buy any product. When making any financial decision, you should perform your own due diligence checks, apply your own discretion and consult your competent advisors. The content of the website is not personally directed to you, and we does not take into account your financial situation or needs.The information contained in this website is not necessarily provided in real-time nor is it necessarily accurate. Prices provided herein may be provided by market makers and not by exchanges.Any trading or other financial decision you make shall be at your full responsibility, and you must not rely on any information provided through the website. FX Empire does not provide any warranty regarding any of the information contained in the website, and shall bear no responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using any information contained in the website.The website may include advertisements and other promotional contents, and FX Empire may receive compensation from third parties in connection with the content. FX Empire does not endorse any third party or recommends using any third party’s services, and does not assume responsibility for your use of any such third party’s website or services.FX Empire and its employees, officers, subsidiaries and associates, are not liable nor shall they be held liable for any loss or damage resulting from your use of the website or reliance on the information provided on this website.Risk DisclaimersThis website includes information about cryptocurrencies, contracts for difference (CFDs) and other financial instruments, and about brokers, exchanges and other entities trading in such instruments. Both cryptocurrencies and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money. You should carefully consider whether you understand how these instruments work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.FX Empire encourages you to perform your own research before making any investment decision, and to avoid investing in any financial instrument which you do not fully understand how it works and what are the risks involved.

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Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Could Extend Rally if Dollar Slide Deepens

The latest Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) forecast turned more upbeat after Sterling rebounded from 1.3420 lows and pushed back above 1.3500 towards the end of the week.

US Dollar weakness continues to dominate as political pressure on the Federal Reserve unsettles markets, leaving GBP/USD poised against key resistance near 1.3575.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Break Above 1.3500

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) rebounded strongly from lows around 1.3420 on Wednesday and continued to make ground on Thursday as it edged above the 1.3500 level.

Unease over the politicising of the Fed is damaging the dollar with no major Pound developments.

Crucial resistance comes in the 1.3575-90 range with the pair failing in this area during July and August.

According to UoB progress will be limited; “The major resistance at 1.3575 is unlikely to come into view.”

Federal Reserve policy and Administration efforts to exert much greater influence on the central bank remain key elements for the dollar and global markets.

ING expects the political dimension to increase further and noted; “It is hard to see the debate not falling across partisan lines, with some of the most excoriating criticism of the White House action coming from the likes of former Fed and Treasury representatives Janet Yellen and Lael Brainard – both Democrats.

Fed Governor Cook is not accepting her attempted dismissal by President Trump with a legal challenge.

ING added; “The Cook issue looks set to be tied up in court for the remainder of the year, with the key point being whether she can continue to vote on the FOMC during this period. Alongside Stephen Miran’s recent appointment to the Fed governing board, 17 September is shaping up to be quite a meeting.”

The battle has also widened to regional Fed banks.

Jeffries stated that the battle over Cook; “exemplifies the expansion of executive power, which may open the path for the administration to oust Powell or other regional Fed presidents, raising risk for U.S. assets.”

It added; “The risk of non-renewal or dismissal of regional presidents — especially those perceived as policy dissenters — has become material.”

Investment banks will continue to discuss the longer-term outlook for interest rates.

Rabobank commented; “This week’s events underline our view that the FOMC may continue to resist delivering the amount of rate cuts that President Trump desires this year.”

Nevertheless, it expects a different environment in 2026; “next year the data are likely to matter less in monetary policy decisions and we expect the pace of the cutting cycle to pick up.”

It added; “What’s more, as we discussed in our Jackson Hole comment, we are likely see a major overhaul of the Fed. Stephen Miran is not going to the Fed just to vote for rate cuts, more importantly he is sent there by Trump as a quartermaster for the MAGA makeover.”

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