The EURJPY pair confirmed the previously suggested bullish scenario by surpassing 183.15 level, achieving the initial target by its rally towards 183.92, to settle near it.
Confirming the importance of providing new bullish closes above 183.15 level, which allows it to activate with stochastic positivity by attempting to record extra gains by its rally towards 184.30 and 184.85 initially.
The expected trading range for today is between 183.30 and 184.85
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate edged lower on Tuesday as renewed geopolitical uncertainty encouraged investors to favour the safe-haven US Dollar.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at around $1.3499, down slightly from Tuesday’s opening levels.
The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Tuesday as hopes of a swift agreement between the US and Iran continued to fade.
Crude oil prices climbed back towards the $90-per-barrel mark after negotiations over reopening the Strait of Hormuz hit another obstacle, with US President Donald Trump insisting any future deal must include additional concessions from Tehran.
Responding to Iran’s demands for sanctions relief and compensation, Trump argued that Iran should instead compensate the US for what he described as decades of damage.
The tougher rhetoric dampened expectations that a breakthrough is imminent, reversing some of the optimism that had built after officials suggested last week that an agreement could soon be reached.
The Pound (GBP) traded in a narrow range on Tuesday, finding modest support after a survey indicated that UK consumer confidence climbed to its highest level in almost two years.
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According to Barclays, household sentiment improved in July as concerns over personal finances and job security continued to ease.
The stronger mood was also reflected in spending habits, with favourable summer weather and the World Cup encouraging consumers to spend more on retail, hospitality and leisure activities.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Softer US Inflation to Pressure the ‘Greenback’?
Attention now turns to Wednesday’s US consumer price index, which is expected to be the key driver of movement in the Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate.
Economists anticipate inflation eased again in July. If confirmed, the figures could reduce expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate increase in September, potentially weighing on the US Dollar.
Meanwhile, Sterling investors will increasingly focus on Thursday’s UK GDP release.
Forecasts suggest economic growth slowed in the second quarter after a robust start to the year, although the UK economy is still expected to have expanded at a healthy pace.
A resilient growth reading could reinforce expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) may need to maintain a relatively hawkish stance, offering additional support to the Pound.
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The US dollar has rallied against the Japanese yen again on Monday, as the interest rate differential continues to play out here.
USD/JPY
The US dollar has rallied a bit against the Japanese yen during the trading session here on Monday, bouncing from the 200-day EMA. The interest rates have climbed a little bit during the early part of the trading session on Monday, bouncing from the massive, hugely important 200-day EMA. With the 160 yen level above offering a bit of a target, I am more than comfortable being long of this market despite the fact that the Bank of Japan has intervened a couple of times in the past, once just a couple of weeks ago.
Bank of Japan Interventions and Long-Term Carry Trade Strategy
The interventions have always invited more buying, and I don’t know if that changes, but the reality is that the situation longer term in Japan is tenuous at best. There’s an expression: “Japan is a bug looking for a windshield.” That’s been around for years, and it looks like it’s finally coming to fruition.
As I get paid at the end of every day to hold this USD/JPY pair to the upside, I have been doing so for months, and I think I probably will continue to do so going forward unless something fundamentally changes. And right now, it really hasn’t. In fact, there’s still a 55% chance that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in September, so that is still working for it.
On short-term pullbacks at this point in time, I am still a buyer of, slowly. This is an investment that I’ve been in for several months, roughly 10 or so, and so far, it has worked out quite well. Yes, there is volatility, but at the end of the day, if they give you an opportunity to buy cheap US dollars, not necessarily the worst thing.
Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions
As seen on:Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire
The GBPJPY pair formed a strong bullish rally yesterday, benefiting from its stability above212.50 level, activating with the main indicators, to record several gains by reaching 215.20.
The stability of the trading above 55 moving average level besides the attempt of forming new support level at 214.05 level, these factors make us keep the bullish scenario, which might target 216.35 and 216.85.
The expected trading range for today is between 214.10 and 216.35
The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate struggled to establish a clear trend on Monday, as uncertainty surrounding developments in the Middle East kept the currency pair unsettled.
At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3498, with the pair fluctuating since the start of the week.
The US Dollar (USD) struggled for direction at the start of the week as uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace negotiations kept markets on edge.
President Donald Trump said the US was ‘semi-negotiating’ with Iran, while Tehran has reportedly sought compensation from Washington for damage caused by the war. Iran is also in talks with Oman over a partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, although it has outlined six conditions that Washington must meet before an agreement can be reached.
Elsewhere, Yemen’s Houthi militia targeted a Saudi oil refinery, while a missile struck a UAE oil tanker in the Strait.
With tensions continuing to cloud the outlook, the safe-haven US Dollar moved unevenly as market sentiment shifted.
The Pound (GBP) likewise lacked a clear direction, with a quiet UK economic calendar leaving Sterling to take its cues from developments in the Middle East.
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Although markets retained a cautious risk-on bias as hopes lingered for a peace agreement between the US and Iran, the more risk-sensitive Pound found little support from the improved sentiment.
Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Risk Appetite Could Set the Tone
Looking ahead, the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate could remain sensitive to shifts in global risk appetite on Tuesday, with neither the UK nor US economic calendars offering much in the way of market-moving data.
Attention is therefore likely to remain fixed on developments in the Middle East. Evidence of progress towards a US-Iran agreement could lift risk appetite and reduce demand for the safe-haven US Dollar.
However, a fresh escalation in tensions could have the opposite effect, encouraging risk aversion and putting pressure on GBP/USD.
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USD/JPY Outlook: Intervention Caps 164 but Fundamentals Still Favour Dollar
The US Dollar to Yen exchange rate (USD/JPY) bounced back towards 159 on Monday, recovering from Friday’s 157.80 close but still sitting well below the late-July peak near 164.
Goldman Sachs thinks that lower level may prove temporary.
The bank estimates Japan’s latest intervention was “likely up to $85bn in 2 days; the largest 2-day operation since 2011”, with the US also taking part.
That was a powerful signal. It was not, in Goldman’s view, a substitute for policy.
“If pricing holds and the Board leaves rates unchanged, downward pressure on JGBs and JPY would reemerge,” the bank said, reflecting what it calls the “unstable equilibrium” of intervention without a subsequent policy change.
USD/JPY remains well below July’s highs near 164, although the pair has begun to recover from the intervention-driven fall.
Goldman’s economists see “the odds of substantially faster or earlier BoJ rate hikes” as low, especially if a stronger Yen reduces the urgency for policymakers to act.
That helps explain why the bank has not materially changed its longer-run forecast profile.
Goldman sees USD/JPY at 162 in three months, 163 in six months and 165 in twelve months.
In other words, the intervention can change the path without necessarily changing the destination.
Near-Term USD/JPY Outlook: Fundamentals Still Point Higher
Goldman argues that the relatively muted follow-through after intervention reflects “the fundamental reasons for the currency’s weakness”.
“We expect depreciation pressures to reemerge over time absent a shift in global conditions or a policy surprise,” the bank said.
There is one important qualification.
“If the BoJ does hike in September, and there begin to be signs of reallocation towards domestic assets by domestic investors, the Yen can see stronger levels for longer.”
The broader bank consensus is less aggressive than Goldman’s twelve-month call. Median forecasts drift lower through 2027, while the range of estimates remains unusually wide.
View full sizeImage: USD/JPY consensus forecast – sentiment survey results
Bank forecasts remain highly dispersed, with the median path below current levels through much of 2027.
Goldman analysts sit on the more Dollar-bullish side of the debate.
Its central message is simple: the joint US-Japan operation can stop a disorderly run through 164, but unless rates, capital flows or the global backdrop change, intervention alone is unlikely to deliver a lasting Yen recovery.
Exchange Rates UK Research
Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.
USD/CAD stabilizes at 1.3948 near the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 1.3985, with 1.3950 as support and 1.4000 above. Source: TradingView
The U.S. dollar is rising a bit against the Canadian dollar after forming a bit of a double bottom. This is a market that has been rounding from a huge move to the upside. We are currently at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, followed by the 50% retracement level, trying to find some type of floor. Ultimately, this is a market that is an interest rate differential play as well. There are some traders out there that are off to the races when it comes to the idea of the U.S. employment situation dropping, but one errant report really doesn’t make a trend.
Furthermore, unfortunately, the Canadian jobs numbers, although really hot this month, are notorious for being horribly wrong and corrected the next time. So, we can’t read too much into one report, and I think we’re starting to see people question that. The interest rate differential pays traders to hold the U.S. dollar versus the Canadian dollar. I think eventually that comes back into play, especially with a 55% chance of the Federal Reserve raising rates in September.
The GBPJPY pair succeeded in surpassing the negative pressures by providing several positive closes above the key support near 210.65, activating with stochastic positivity and forming positive rally, to settle near 213.60.
The stability of the trading above 212.50 level is important to reinforce the dominance of the bullish trend, to expect targeting 214.10 level, as providing bullish momentum makes the trading extend towards the next target near 214.85.
The expected trading range for today is between 212.65 and 214.10
