TMGM Analysis: Financial Market News, Economic Calendar & Market Insights

– Written by


Minesh Chaudhari

STORY LINK British Pound to Dollar Forecast: Weak Payrolls Ease Pressure on GBP/USD

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate came under heavy pressure on Thursday, falling to fresh three-month lows below 1.3200 before stabilising as investors reacted to extreme moves in global bond markets.

GBP/USD touched around 1.3193, its lowest level since June, before recovering modestly.

The 2026 low remains around 1.3140.

Risk appetite deteriorated sharply as bond yields surged across major markets, boosting demand for the Dollar and limiting support for Sterling.

ING had commented; “Expect DXY to remain bid in a 101.50-101.80 range today, but an upside breakout is a possibility should tomorrow’s US data surprise on the upside or should the sell-off in European government debt start to heavily weigh on the euro.”

According to UoB; “GBP has likely entered a range-trading phase, expected to be between 1.3205 and 1.3345.”

Weak US Jobs Data Eases Bond-Market Pressure

The bond-market rout intensified on Thursday, with the US 10-year Treasury yield climbing above 5.3% and the UK 30-year gilt yield breaking above 6% for the first time since 1998.

The surge in borrowing costs triggered losses across global equity markets and intensified concerns over fiscal sustainability.

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould commented; “Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Chancellor John Healey already have enough on their plate without a rapid increase in government borrowing costs since they took office. Gilt yields moving at such a pace presents a major challenge for their spending and borrowing plans.”

Friday’s US employment data, however, provided some relief.

Non-farm payrolls increased by just 29,000 in September, far below consensus forecasts of around 90,000.

The unemployment rate also edged higher to 4.2% from 4.1%, while previous payroll estimates were revised lower.

The weak report prompted a sharp retreat in Treasury yields and reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in October.

Markets cut the implied probability of an October hike to around 20%, compared with close to 40% before the release and roughly 70% last week.

The US 10-year yield retreated towards 5.17% following the figures.

Softer Inflation and Jobs Data Challenge Fed Tightening Bets

The labour-market figures followed softer-than-expected US inflation data earlier in the week.

Core PCE prices increased 0.2% in August, while the annual rate held at 3.0%.

The data had already encouraged traders to reduce expectations of a back-to-back Federal Reserve rate hike.

National Australia Bank head of FX strategy Ray Attrill commented; “There’s a little bit of comfort to be drawn from the (US PCE) numbers. I think the market’s been right to moderate somewhat its expectations for a back-to-back Fed hike, but I don’t think it necessarily means there aren’t still more Fed hikes ahead.”

The latest payroll figures have strengthened the argument for the Fed to pause in October, although inflation remains above target and policymakers may still consider another increase later in the year.

Attrill had also noted that the Dollar was becoming more sensitive to developments in longer-dated Treasury yields than to immediate policy pricing.

That relationship was evident again on Friday as lower yields triggered a modest Dollar retreat.

For the GBP/USD exchange rate, the 1.3190-1.3200 area remains the immediate downside support zone.

A sustained break below this region would expose the June low around 1.3140.

On the upside, Pound Sterling would need to recover above 1.3250 and then 1.3300 to ease the immediate bearish pressure.

The softer US jobs report has provided some breathing room, but the broader Dollar trend remains supported by high yields, elevated geopolitical risk and continued concerns over global fiscal policy.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

2026.10.02 2026.10.02
GBP/USD: Elliott Wave Analysis and Forecast for 02.10.26–09.10.26

Alex Geutahttps://www.litefinance.org/blog/authors/alex-geuta/

Major Takeaways

• Main scenario: Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3308 with a target of 1.2938–1.2745. A sell signal: the price holds below 1.3308. Stop Loss: above 1.3355, Take Profit: 1.2938–1.2745.
• Alternative scenario: Breakout and consolidation above the level of 1.3308 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675. A buy signal: the level of 1.3308 is broken to the upside. Stop Loss: below 1.3265, Take Profit: 1.3560–1.3675.

Main Scenario

Consider short positions from corrections below the level of 1.3308 with a target of 1.2938–1.2745.

Alternative Scenario

Breakout and consolidation above 1.3308 will allow the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675.

Analysis

On the weekly time frame, an ascending wave of larger degree (A) of B is developing. Within it, wave 1 of (A) has formed, a downward correction has been completed as wave 2 of (A), and the third wave 3 of (А) is unfolding. Apparently, the first wave of smaller degree i of 3 has formed and corrective wave ii of 3 is developing on the daily chart. Wave (c) of ii is forming on the H4 chart, with wave iii of (c) still developing as part of its structure. If the presumption is correct, GBP/USD will continue to decline to the levels of 1.2938–1.2745. The level of 1.3308 is critical in this scenario as a breakout above it will enable the pair to continue rising to the levels of 1.3560–1.3675.

This forecast is based on the Elliott Wave Theory. When developing trading strategies, it is essential to consider fundamental factors, as the market situation can change at any time. 

Price chart of GBPUSD in real time mode

The EURGBP confirmed its surrender to the dominant bearish trend by providing several closes below 0.8600 level, activating with the main indicators’ negativity by forming sharp decline, to surpass the initial targets to settle near 0.8515.

Forming extra barrier at 0.8454 level and stochastic reach to the oversold level, we expect renewing the negative attempts, to target 0.8490 and 0.8470 level.

The expected trading range for today is between 0.8490 and 0.8520

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.1260 on the 2-hour chart as it rebounds from the latest decline. I see price trading below both moving averages, and still within a longer-term bearish move. The bounce, however, is improving momentum in the near-term, and I am looking for the first Fibonacci level at 1.1278 to be tested.

The next resistance would be at 1.1298, with 1.1317 above that. The support would be at 1.1254, and then 1.1215 and 1.1189.

RSI is moving up from the oversold area, but is still below the center line. This means the bullish momentum is not confirming a trend reversal, and I would expect price to continue falling, while staying below 1.1278 and 1.1298. I would see a break above 1.1317 as bullish and a break below 1.1254 as more bears coming in toward 1.1215.

The 2-year yield I’m watching is dropping after the jobs report came in very anemic on Friday. We had anticipated 90,000 jobs added; we got 29,000. So, the idea is maybe the Federal Reserve won’t have to raise rates as quickly. We’ll have to wait and see, but this will have a major influence on how certain assets play out, and that is in the back of my mind.

The GBPJPY pair ended the bullish corrective rebound by providing a new negative close below 210.45 barrier, forming a sharp decline by targeting 207.60, repeating the sideways fluctuation by its stability above 208.10 level, which represents a confirmation key for the near trading.

The contradiction of the main indicators might push the price to provide unstable sideways trading, while its move below 208.10 and providing a negative close will increase the chances of resuming the bearish trend, to expect reaching 206.80, and surpassing this barrier will extend the trading towards 206.25 and 205.65.

The expected trading range for today is between 208.10 and 209.45

Trend forecast: Fluctuating within the bearish trend

The EURJPY pair kept its stability below the additional barrier that is represented by 179.45 level, activating the negative trend and recording initial extra target by reaching 176.75 level.

The current corrective rebound will not threaten the bearish trend, depending on the stability below 180.80 resistance, besides the continuation of forming extra barrier at 179.45 level, and providing negative momentum by the main indicators makes us prefer breaking 176.70 level, to open the way for reaching new bearish stations that might begin at 176.00 and 175.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 176.00 and 178.20

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


John Cameron

STORY LINK Pound Sterling Forecast: GBP/USD Nears $1.32 ahead of Crucial US Payrolls

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate moved lower on Thursday, with escalating geopolitical tensions driving investors towards safer assets.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3212, having fallen by almost 0.4% over the course of the day.

The US Dollar (USD) strengthened on Thursday as rising geopolitical tensions and renewed concerns over oil prices prompted investors to seek the safety of the ‘Greenback’.

Market anxiety grew following a Ukrainian strike on a Russian oil facility, while US President Donald Trump threatened to ‘blow up’ Iran if negotiations failed to produce a favourable deal.

The developments fuelled demand for safe-haven assets.

The US Dollar maintained its gains into the afternoon, even after the latest ISM manufacturing PMI report fell short of expectations.

The index slipped to 54.5 in September from 54.6, missing forecasts of 55.

Nevertheless, the figures still indicated that US manufacturing activity expanded at a solid pace last month, despite the slight loss of momentum.

The Pound (GBP) struggled to gain traction on Thursday, as a lack of significant UK economic releases offered little to guide Sterling.

The day’s main data point was the final UK manufacturing PMI for September, which was revised down marginally to 51.9.

While this marked an improvement on August’s reading of 51.7, it fell short of the initial estimate of 52.

The modest downgrade did little to encourage demand for the Pound, while broader risk aversion added to the pressure on the increasingly risk-sensitive currency.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: US Payrolls Take Centre Stage

Attention turns to Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report, which could set the tone for the GBP/USD exchange rate heading into the weekend.

The US economy is forecast to have created 90,000 jobs in September, down sharply from August’s 162,000 but still a respectable result by recent standards.

A reading in line with expectations could provide modest support for the US Dollar.

However, a significant deviation from forecasts could trigger a sharper reaction.

Stronger-than-expected job growth may lift the ‘Greenback’, while a weaker result could send it lower as markets reassess the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes.

With little UK economic data due on Friday, the Pound is likely to take its cues from broader market sentiment and developments overseas.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Rabobank prepares revised EUR/USD forecasts as energy exposure and French fiscal risks undermine the Euro’s appeal despite ECB tightening.

Rabobank is preparing to give greater weight to Dollar resilience in its EUR/USD forecasts, arguing that Europe’s own weaknesses have helped sustain the US currency’s advance.

The Euro to US Dollar exchange rate traded around 1.1308 on Thursday, down 0.17% from Wednesday’s close, following a 2.50% decline during September.

The bank plans to publish revised projections on Friday, 2 October, after its below-consensus forecasts converged with market expectations.

“We will be looking to publish revised forecasts for EUR/USD tomorrow with more emphasis on USD resilience.”

Rabobank attributes much of the Dollar’s summer strength to the reversal from expectations of Federal Reserve cuts to rate increases.

But higher European interest rates have failed to deliver comparable support for the Euro.

“Even though the ECB brought forward its tightening cycle, and despite the resilience of the Eurozone economy this year, the market is concerned about growth risks in view of the Eurozone’s position as an energy importer.”

Investors entered the Iran war with bullish Euro positions, encouraged by Germany’s plans to expand defence and infrastructure spending.

Rabobank says those positions were rapidly unwound as the conflict began.

View full size

France’s fiscal difficulties add to the problem, with public debt reaching 119% of GDP at the end of June ahead of its contentious 2027 Budget.

However, Rabobank cautions against treating French bond-market stress as automatic selling pressure on the Euro.

“To date, French budget woes have not had a significant impact on the single currency since sellers of French bonds have been content to roll into other EUR denominated paper.”

The broader concern is that energy costs, political uncertainty and competitive pressure from China reduce the Euro’s attraction as an alternative to the Dollar.

Friday’s forecast update will show how far Rabobank translates that assessment into revised exchange-rate targets.

Our currency coverage draws on live market data, official economic releases and published bank research.