The Euro to Dollar (EUR/USD) exchange rate has steadied near 1.1425 after recovering from June’s lows, although Rabobank believes the single currency has lost much of the momentum that drove its rally earlier this year.

The bank expects EUR/USD to trade broadly sideways over the next one to three months before regaining a modest upward bias later in the year.

Rabobank argues that optimism surrounding Germany’s decision to loosen its debt brake has faded as investors refocus on weaker Eurozone growth, higher energy costs and lingering competitiveness challenges.

According to the bank, last year’s fiscal shift in Germany “was no panacea”, with structural reforms still needed to tackle sluggish productivity and weak long-term growth.

Rabobank also notes that markets are already fully priced for another European Central Bank rate increase this year, limiting the Euro’s ability to gain further support from monetary policy.

While the US Dollar continues to benefit from a resilient economy, the bank believes expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive and should gradually unwind.

Even so, Rabobank expects investors to remain reluctant to rebuild large long Euro positions in the coming months after the currency’s strong performance over the past year.

The bank believes investors will remain cautious in the near term. According to Rabobank, “the market is likely to be reluctant to rebuild large, long positions in the EUR in the months ahead.”

However, it also argues that expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening have become excessive. As the bank puts it, “we expect sideways trading in EUR/USD on a 3-month view and a modest upward bias to emerge in the currency pair on a 3-to-6-month view.”

Platinum price formed some bearish waves, to settle below $1605.00 level, attempting to settle again within the minor bearish channel’s levels, to confirm the continuation of the previously suggested bearish scenario, recording initial negative target at $1570.00.

Providing negative momentum by the main indicators will increase the chances of attacking $1530.00 barrier, and surpassing it will open the way for reaching extra stations that are represented by $1510.00 reaching $1445.00

The expected trading range for today is between $1510.00 and $1630.00

Trend forecast: Bearish

The EURJPY pair kept its positive stability above 184.80 level, forming a new bullish rally and achieving 185.70 level, which forces it to form some sideways trading due to its fluctuation below 185.85 barrier.

By the above image, we notice the attempt of stochastic to reach the overbought level, providing a chance for renewing the pressure on the current barrier, where surpassing it will confirm its readiness to record extra gains by its rally towards 186.20 and 186.60.

The expected trading range for today is between 185.25 and 186.20

Trend forecast: Bullish

The British pound has gone back and forth on Wednesday, as the US interest rates continue to rise after the US attack on Iran.

GBP/USD

The British pound has gone back and forth during the course of the trading session here on Wednesday as we are hanging around the 50-day EMA. The 200-day EMA also offers a pretty significant barrier as well, so I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we find ourselves going back and forth.

What I do find interesting here, though, is that despite the fact that interest rates have climbed in the United States, the pound is slightly positive going into the end of the session. That makes a certain amount of sense due to the fact that UK rates are higher than most others, including the US, but I also recognize that we are in an area of high traffic.

The Pound as a US Dollar Barometer

I still like the idea of buying the US dollar in general, and I like the idea of using this market as a bit of a barometer of US dollar strength. If we start to fall apart here, that means we’re going to crater in many other markets, such as the New Zealand dollar, the Australian dollar, places that have no business strengthening against the US dollar in a strong greenback environment.

That being said, if this market does recapture the 1.34 level, then you would have to assume that the pound sooner or later tries to get back to the 1.35 level. When you look at the pound, we’ve been in a range since basically the spring of 2025, with a throw over in each direction, and right now we are trying to get to the middle, which would be the 1.35 level.

So, unless the US dollar really takes off against everything and there’s some type of massive risk problem out there, I do think eventually we will find our way up there. But I use this chart not to trade, but to decide what to do with the US dollar against so many other currencies. So, the pound is definitely something you want to be watching.

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Christopher Lewis is a technical analyst and market commentator at DailyForex with more than two decades of trading experience in Forex and other leveraged markets. Based in Columbus, Ohio, he specializes in chart-based analysis of major currency pairs, stock indices, commodities, and energy markets, focusing on clear support and resistance levels, trend structure, and risk management. Christopher produces daily written and video analysis for traders who rely on technical setups to navigate volatile market conditions

As seen on: Pairs Of Aces Podcast,The Trader Guy, FXEmpire

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: Bearish over the medium term, with the possibility of a limited corrective rebound continuing before resuming the main trend.

• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1400 – 1.1360 – 1.1290

• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1480 – 1.1530 – 1.1600

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy scenario (with corrective bounce): from the support level of 1.1360, targeting 1.1500, with a stop-loss order placed below 1.1300.

• Sell scenario (with the main trend): from the resistance level of 1.1500, targeting 1.1400, with a stop-loss order placed above 1.1550.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today

The EUR/USD pair is moving within a narrow sideways range at the start of today’s trading, as investors await the release of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes, scheduled for publication at 21:00 Egypt time. This could provide fresh signals regarding the future of US monetary policy and the direction of interest rates.

According to the best and most reliable trading platforms, the pair is currently trading near the 1.1420 level, after reaching its highest level since the beginning of the week at 1.1448, amid declining trading volumes and the market’s anticipation of a major catalyst.

Technical Outlook:

The overall trend on the daily chart remains bearish, with the pair continuing to trade within a descending price channel. The key moving averages continue to support the continuation of the medium-term downtrend.

On the other hand, some momentum indicators have begun to show gradual improvement. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is moving around the 42 level, indicating a decrease in selling pressure without entering oversold territory. The MACD indicator is attempting to generate an initial positive signal, but the upward momentum is still insufficient to confirm a trend reversal.

Therefore, any rise at the present time remains within the framework of a corrective rebound unless the pair manages to break through key resistance levels and close above them.

From a technical perspective for EUR/USD, a break below 1.1400 and a close below it could give sellers an additional boost, targeting 1.1360 and then 1.1290. However, if buyers manage to break through 1.1530, the chances of a continued recovery towards 1.1600 could increase. This level could represent the first concrete indication of a shift in the short- to medium-term trend structure.

Fundamental Analysis:

On the economic data front, the European currency received some support following an improvement in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence index, which rose to -3.1 points in July compared to -13.4 points in the previous reading, exceeding market expectations. Economic data also showed German factory orders rising by 1.9% in May, following a decline in the previous month, reflecting a gradual improvement in the Eurozone’s largest economy.

MUFG analysts believe that the resilience of the Eurozone economy and the continuous improvement of economic indicators could limit the pressure on the Euro in the coming period, especially with the receding impact of the energy crisis and improving investor confidence.

Despite these positive factors, the movements of the Euro/Dollar pair in the coming hours will remain primarily linked to the outcomes of the Federal Reserve minutes, as the tone of monetary policymakers could impact expectations for US interest rate cuts, and subsequently, the direction of the US Dollar.

EUR/USD Forecast

The general outlook for the EUR/USD pair remains tilted to the downside as long as the price stabilizes below the 1.1530 level, while corrective rebound attempts may continue in the short term as long as the pair maintains trading above 1.1400.

The Federal Reserve minutes are expected to determine the direction of the next move; any hawkish tone could bolster the strength of the Dollar and push the pair to resume its bearish path, whereas any signals supporting monetary policy easing could give the Euro an opportunity to test key resistance levels.

Trading Advice:

In light of anticipating an influential economic event like the Federal Reserve minutes, it is preferable to avoid opening large positions before the data release. Adhere to strict capital management and use stop-loss orders, given the potential for market volatility to rise significantly following the announcement.

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Copper price forced to provide slow sideways trading, due to the contradiction of the main indicators against holding below $6.3000 barrier, the price needs to settle below $5.9500 level, reinforcing the chances of targeting the corrective stations, which might begin at $5.8200 and $5.7100.

Surpassing the barrier will cancel the corrective scenario, to open the way for recording clear gains by its rally towards $5.4300 initially, to attempt to surpass $6.5200, to confirm the continuation of the positivity in the upcoming trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.9500 and $6.2600

Trend forecast: Bearish

– Written by


David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Hits 20-Day High as USD Rally Pauses

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) climbed to a 20-day high above 1.3400 as calm market conditions and subdued volatility encouraged demand for higher-yielding currencies.

With the Dollar consolidating after its recent rally and Sterling continuing to benefit from easing UK political uncertainty, investors have become more willing to rebuild long Pound positions.

GBP/USD Forecasts: 20-Day High

The Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate posted a 20-day high fractionally above the 1.34 level before trading around 1.3385.

Overall risk appetite held steady while overall volatility remained low. In this environment, the relatively high yields offered by the Dollar and Pound provided net support to both currencies.

UOB noted strong resistance close just above 1.34 and commented; “A break above this major resistance is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the next resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3350.”

According to Scotiabank; “momentum appears to be pushing further into bullish territory.”

It added; “The daily chart offers dense resistance at several levels (1.3420, 1.3450. 1.3500, 1.3520) ahead of 1.3600.”

After hitting 13-month highs near 101.50 last week, the dollar index was steady around 100.60.

Minutes from June’s Federal Reserve policy meeting will be released on Wednesday. Interest rates were held at 3.75% with relatively hawkish comments from new Chair Warsh.

ING commented; “markets probably require a convincing narrative to short the high-yielding dollar in such a favourable environment for carry. Unless the minutes surprise on the dovish side (we don’t think so), that narrative should not emerge this week, and DXY can stay closer to 101.0 than 100.0.”

Scotiabank is less convinced over the dollar outlook; “we continue to think that near-term risks are tilted towards a little more USD weakness overall; we think the markets are mispricing Fed tightening risks—certainly over the next few months—and we believe dollar index gains may be showing signs of peaking on the charts which may see the index put a little more pressure on support around the 100.5 point.”

DBS Bank noted; “the US dollar has strengthened in response to a hawkish market interpretation of the first US Fed meeting under new Chair Kevin Warsh in June.”

It added; “That said, the USD’s appeal continues to be challenged by investor concerns over US exceptionalism, long-term fiscal sustainability, and ongoing policy uncertainties.”

Domestically, assuming Burnham is confirmed as new Prime Minister, markets will be looking closely at the appointment of the next Chancellor and overall direction of fiscal policy.

According to Scotiabank; “In terms of fiscal risks, the UK’s OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility) has underscored the challenges facing the UK and specifically the cost (£100bn) of stabilizing the national debt around current levels (95% of GDP).”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Goldman Sachs has cut its Euro to Dollar exchange rate forecasts, warning that the earlier case for sustained EUR/USD upside has weakened.

The bank now sees EUR/USD at 1.14 in three months, before falling to 1.12 on both a six- and twelve-month view. That marks a clear downgrade from the previous profile, which had looked for gains to 1.18 and 1.20.

Goldman says the FX market has shifted into a “divided Dollar environment”, with the US currency no longer expected to weaken broadly across the board.

The bank says it is now “unlikely to return to broad-based, sustained Dollar depreciation” in the near term, particularly as US asset demand remains resilient and AI-related investment spending continues to support the US growth outlook.

The report also flags a more balanced rates backdrop. Goldman still expects some narrowing in US rate differentials, but not enough to justify the previous EUR/USD upside path.

The bank adds that Dollar diversification concerns have “quieted”, while the US currency remains better supported against low-yielding currencies than against higher-carry alternatives.

For EUR/USD, the revised forecast sends a clear signal: the Euro may still find periods of support, but Goldman no longer sees the conditions for a sustained break higher.

Instead, the bank’s new 1.12 target suggests the Dollar is likely to retain more support than previously expected, especially if US data avoids a sharper downturn and rate-market expectations remain contained.

Euro Prices: This Week

	USD	EUR	GBP	JPY	CAD	AUD	NZD	CHF
USD		+0.07%	-0.77%	+0.11%	-0.05%	-0.68%	-0.43%	+0.09%
EUR	-0.07%		-0.84%	+0.04%	-0.13%	-0.75%	-0.50%	+0.01%
GBP	+0.77%	+0.85%		+0.89%	+0.72%	+0.09%	+0.34%	+0.86%
JPY	-0.11%	-0.04%	-0.88%		-0.16%	-0.78%	-0.54%	-0.02%
CAD	+0.05%	+0.13%	-0.72%	+0.16%		-0.62%	-0.38%	+0.14%
AUD	+0.68%	+0.76%	-0.09%	+0.79%	+0.63%		+0.25%	+0.77%
NZD	+0.43%	+0.50%	-0.34%	+0.54%	+0.38%	-0.25%		+0.52%
CHF	-0.09%	-0.01%	-0.86%	+0.02%	-0.14%	-0.76%	-0.52%

The FX heat map compares how Euro (EUR) has performed against a basket of major currencies over the past week. The largest move was against the Pound Sterling, where Euro recorded its sharpest decline. Data comparing prices today (07/07/2026 20:38 UTC) and daily close on 30/06/2026.

To read the table, choose the base currency from the left-hand column and then move across to the quote currency along the top row. For example, the GBP row and USD column shows the weekly percentage move in GBP/USD.