• The GBP/USD outlook is extremely bullish after the dollar loses further due to Trump’s criticism of the Fed.
• Iran-Israel ceasefire continues to underpin the global risk sentiment.
• Markets are now eyeing the Q1 GDP and Core PCE Index data from the US.

The British pound extended its bullish momentum for the fourth consecutive session on Thursday, pushing the price to a fresh 41-month top near mid-1.3700. The rally stems from improving global risk sentiment and pressure on the US dollar driven by tension in Washington.

–Are you interested in learning more about the next cryptocurrency to explode? Check our detailed guide- 

The greenback is experiencing a broader sell-off after President Trump renewed his criticism of the Federal Reserve’s independence. Trump labeled Fed Chair Powell as “terrible” after his testimony before Congress, where he reiterated the data dependence and showed no urgency to lower the rates. The US President also hinted at replacing Powell as soon as this summer. The Dollar Index plunged below 97.50 as markets interpreted Trump’s threat as a political intervention with the central bank.

While the US side faces central bank politics and mixed economic data, the British pound shows resilience. Domestic concerns about a cooling labor market and softer inflation hopes are striking at the pound’s strength. A British Chamber of Commerce survey revealed that around one-third of SMEs plan to cut jobs due to rising National Insurance costs. BoE Governor Bailey also pointed out the softening of the labor market during his testimony earlier this week.

Nevertheless, the markets remain primarily focused on US dynamics and broader risk sentiment. The ceasefire between Iran and Israel has lifted the risk appetite and shifted capital flows off the US dollar. Traders are now eyeing today’s US Q1 GDP and Friday’s US Core PCE Index report. Softer-than-expected data may increase the odds of a September rate cut, which will further weaken the US dollar.

GBP/USD Technical Outlook: Bulls Aim for 1.4000

The 4-hour chart of the GBP/USD reveals a strong bullish trend as the price lies well above the key SMAs. The pair broke the resistance at 1.3635 with a strong push towards 1.3750. The price is building the case to test the 1.4000 psychological mark.

–Are you interested in learning more about forex indicators? Check our detailed guide-

On the other hand, the pair may experience profit-taking as it has overextended, and the RSI indicates an extreme overbought condition near the 80.0 level. The pair may test the resistance-turned-support at 1.3635 before resuming the uptrend.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

• USD/JPY attracts heavy selling and is pressured by a combination of negative factors.
• Concerns over the Fed’s independence weigh on the USD and lift the safe-haven JPY.
• The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations contribute to the steep intraday decline.

The USD/JPY pair resumes this week’s sharp retracement slide from the 146.00 mark, or its highest level since May 13, and dives to a one-and-half-week low during the first half of the European session on Thursday. Spot prices slip below the 144.00 mark in the last hour and seem vulnerable to weaken further amid a bearish fundamental backdrop.

US President Donald Trump escalated his criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for not cutting rates and floated the idea of firing him. Powell, testifying before Congress for the second day on Wednesday, acknowledged that the recent inflation reading had been more moderate, but he warned that new tariffs could change that. Powell reiterated that the central bank is well-positioned to wait to cut interest rates until they have a better handle on the impact of Trump’s trade policies on consumer prices.

Meanwhile, reports suggest that Trump was considering naming Powell’s successor by September or October, stoking concerns over the central bank’s independence. When asked if he is interviewing candidates to replace Powell, Trump said he has three or four people in mind as contenders for the top Fed job. This, along with bets that the US central bank could resume its rate-cutting cycle as soon as July, drags the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since March 2022 and is seen weighing heavily on the USD/JPY pair.

Moreover, traders have fully priced in that the Fed will lower rates by at least 50 basis points before the end of this year. In contrast, the Bank of Japan – although has been hesitant to raise interest rates – is still expected to stay on the path of monetary policy normalization as inflation persistently exceeds its target. Japan’s core inflation has remained well above the BoJ’s 2% target for well over three years and rose to a more than two-year high in May. Furthermore, Japan’s Corporate Services Producer Price Index – a leading indicator of consumer price inflation – has been trending above the 3% YoY rate for several consecutive months.

The divergent Fed-BoJ policy expectations turn out to be another factor exerting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair and validate the near-term negative outlook. Traders now look forward to the US economic docket – featuring the final Q1 GDP print, the usual Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales. Apart from this, speeches from influential FOMC members could provide some impetus to the pair ahead of the Tokyo CPI and the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Nevertheless, the aforementioned factors suggest that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside.

USD/JPY 4-hour chart

Technical Outlook

The overnight failure ahead of the 146.00 mark and a subsequent break below the 144.70-144.65 area, or the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart, validates the negative outlook for the USD/JPY pair. Moreover, oscillators on hourly/daily charts have just started gaining negative traction and back the case for a slide towards intermediate support near the 143.70-143.65 region en route to sub-143.00 levels.

On the flip side, the 200-SMA support breakpoint, around the 144.65-144.70 zone, now seems to act as an immediate hurdle ahead of the 145.00 psychological mark and the 145.25-145.35 static barrier. A sustained strength beyond the latter could allow the USD/JPY pair to make a fresh attempt to conquer the 146.00 mark. The said handle might now act as a pivotal point, which if cleared could shift the near-term bias in favor of bulls and pave the way for additional near-term gains.

The GBPCHF affected by stochastic rally to the overbought level, forming some bullish correctional waves, recording 1.1015 level, but the main stability within the bearish channel’s levels, which represents 1.1055 level for the extension of the extra main resistance for the stability of the moving average 55 above the current trading, these factors makes us wait for preferring the bearish bias domination, which might target 1.0975 and 1.0955.

Note that the price rally above the bearish channel’s resistance and provides a positive close, will confirm its move to the bullish track, to begin targeting several positive stations by reaching 1.1095 initially.

The expected trading range for today is between 1.0955 and 1.1040

Trend forecast: Bearish

The GBPJPY pair ended its last bullish rally by providing a negative close below 66% Fibonacci correction level at198.80, to form an extra obstacle against the bullish attempts, which forces it to form a temporary correctional rebound at 197.85, attempting to catch its breath before resuming the main bullish attack.

Reminding you that the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels and its main support is located near 195.70, by forming extra support at 197.30 represented by 61.8%Fibonacci correction level, these factors make us wait for gathering new positive momentum that allows it to press on the mentioned obstacle and surpassing it will reinforce the chances of reaching the next target near 199.55.

The expected trading range for today is between 197.65 and 198.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair confirmed its surrender to the dominance of the temporary sideways bias, to notice its move between the extra support near 167.60 and the top of the last wave that is represented by 169.30 level, attempting to face stochastic negativity and keeping positive stability.

Therefore, we will keep waiting for the extra positive momentum, which allows it to settle above 169.30 then attack the resistance of the bullish channel at 170.00, to find an exit to move to a new positive station, while the price decline below the extra support that might force it to activate the bearish correctional track before any attempt to record any of the suggested positive targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 168.30 and 170.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

June 26, 2025 – Written by Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Price Ticks Higher to 1.371

The Pound US Dollar exchange rate (GBPUSD) traded without a clear direction on Wednesday amid a lack of both UK and US data releases.

The US Dollar (USD) regained some ground on Wednesday, recovering from losses earlier in the week that followed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, a development that initially weighed on the safe-haven currency.

As market sentiment turned more neutral midweek, this helped stabilise demand for the ‘Greenback’.

Additional support came from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who delivered testimony to Congress reaffirming the Fed’s cautious stance on interest rate cuts.

His pushback against political pressure to ease policy bolstered expectations that rates will remain higher for longer, offering a lift to USD exchange rates during Wednesday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP) lacked clear direction on Wednesday, trading sideways against the majority of its peers as a lull in UK economic data left markets with little to go on.

After benefiting earlier in the week from improved risk appetite, Sterling ran out of steam as sentiment cooled.

With no major UK releases to drive movement, investors showed little enthusiasm for extending positions in GBP.

As a result, the Pound remained stuck in a tight range, with limited momentum to break higher or lower during Wednesday’s European session.

Looking to Thursday’s European session, movement in the GBP/USD exchange rate is likely to be influenced by a flurry of key US economic releases.

Markets will dissect the latest US durable goods orders for May alongside the final estimate of Q1 GDP.

Orders for durable goods are expected to show a strong rebound, jumping from a sharp -6.3% to a robust 8.5% increase, potentially lending support to the US Dollar.

However, this may be offset by a disappointing GDP revision, with growth in the first quarter projected to be downgraded from 2.4% to -0.2%.

If these figures meet expectations, USD exchange rate movement could be choppy as traders weigh the conflicting signals.

On the UK side, attention will fall on the latest CBI distributive trades survey.

Although not typically a major market mover, a stronger-than-expected reading could help Sterling find some traction.

Additionally, remarks from Bank of England (BoE) policymakers, including Governor Andrew Bailey, could inject fresh volatility into GBP exchange rates.

Any hints that the BoE remains cautious about near-term rate cuts may provide a further lift to the Pound.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

• The EUR/USD forecast is strongly bullish despite a mild pullback from YTD highs.
• A weaker dollar amid dovish Fed expectations keeps the Euro bullish.
• Markets are eyeing US Q1 GDP and US Core PCE Index data for further impetus.

The EUR/USD price is trading slightly lower on Wednesday during the early New York session, after posting a two-day rally to fresh YTD highs. Despite the pullback, the pair remains close to the highest level since November 2021, supported by global risk sentiment, weaker oil prices, and the US dollar.

–Are you interested in learning more about the next cryptocurrency to explode? Check our detailed guide- 

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel, announced by President Trump, sparked broader optimism across financial markets. As a result, the safe-haven demand for the dollar lost traction. Although both sides are at peace, the stability is still too fragile. Both sides can resume hostilities if provoked. However, the markets have so far welcomed the de-escalation, favoring riskier assets, such as the Euro.

The subdued dollar boosts the Euro. The Dollar Index remains depressed around mid-97.00, close to a three-year low, as it is pressured by dovish Fed expectations. Although the Fed Chair Jerome Powell maintained a cautious stance in his testimony before Congress on Tuesday, the markets are still expecting a 50 bps cut by the end of 2025.

On the European side, macroeconomic data is steady but not strong enough to drive markets. French Consumer Confidence remained unchanged at 88.0, while Spain’s Q1 GDP confirmed a growth of 0.6% q/q and 2.8% y/y.

The US Consumer Confidence Index fell from 98.4 to 93.0, revealing concerns for jobs and economic growth. As markets digest Powell’s second round of testimony today, the upcoming US data, including Q1 GDP and the Core PCE Index, are key to watch.

EUR/USD Technical Forecast: Buyers Aiming for 1.1700

The EUR/USD 4-hour chart displays a consolidating pattern near the multi-month high. The uptrend is intact as the price stays well above the 20-period SMA. Moreover, the bullish crossover of the 20-SMA and 50-SMA also presents room for upside. The RSI is also off the overbought zone but above 50.0 and sloping upwards.

–Are you interested in learning more about forex indicators? Check our detailed guide-

Overall, the pair is now trading within a broad range of 1.1450 to 1.1650. The price is expected to remain within these two levels unless a catalyst emerges to push it further higher towards the 1.1700 mark. The path of least resistance lies on the upside.

Looking to trade forex now? Invest at eToro!

68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

• The Euro has fallen pretty significantly against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Tuesday as we continue to see a lot of noisy behavior.
• I think ultimately this is a situation where traders have to understand the fact that this is a very risk appetite sensitive pair.
• Keep in mind that the Euro is considered to be much riskier than the Japanese yen.

Therefore, if we have a sudden “risk off” move, typically this pair will fall. You do get paid to hang on to this via swap. And I think we are going to continue to see buyers willing to jump in because of this fact.

And in fact, given the fact that we are right at the previous consolidation area, somewhere in this general vicinity, I think you will start to see buyers jumping back in. I have no interest shorting the euro against the Japanese yen anytime soon, at least not until we break down below the 165 yen level, which is over three handles away. To the upside, the 170 yen level is an area that could cause a little bit of resistance, but quite frankly, we have broken above a major resistance barrier. And now I think we will eventually find ourselves much higher that where we are now.

The Longer Term Target Could Be Much Higher

Eventually, we may find ourselves all the way up at the 175 yen region. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, but this pullback I think opens up the possibility of offering a little bit of value, which is exactly what this pair has needed over the last couple of weeks. So, with this, I’m bullish. I’m either waiting for a bounce or a break to the upside.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• GBP/USD moves sideways slightly above 1.3600 on Wednesday.
• The pair could struggle to extend its weekly rally in case markets turn cautious.
• The technical outlook suggests that the bullish stance remains unchanged in the near term.

Following a late Monday rally, GBP/USD preserved its bullish momentum on Tuesday and reached its highest level since January 2022 near 1.3650. The pair stays relatively quiet early Wednesday and fluctuates in a narrow band slightly above 1.3600.

Risk flows continued to dominate the action in financial markets in the first half of the day on Tuesday as investors cheered news of the Iran-Israel ceasefire. As a result, the US Dollar (USD) struggled to find demand and allowed GBP/USD to push higher.

In the American session, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s cautious comments on policy-easing helped the USD find a foothold. Powell told the House Financial Services Committee that they are not in a rush to cut rates, noting that they expect a meaningful increase in inflation this year because of tariffs.

Meanwhile, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey told the Lords Economic Affairs Committee on Tuesday that they are starting to observe labor market softening. Additionally, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden said that if evidence becomes stronger that inflation will undershoot the target, they can speed up rate cuts. Although these comments failed to trigger an immediate market reaction, they might be contributing to GBP/USD’s indecisive action midweek.

The economic calendar will not feature any high-impact macroeconomic data releases later in the day. Hence, investors could react to changes in risk perception. In case Wall Street’s main indexes correct lower following Tuesday’s risk rally, the USD could gather strength and make it difficult for GBP/USD to hold its ground.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart holds above 60, suggesting that the bullish bias remains intact. On the upside, 1.3630 (static level) aligns as an immediate resistance level ahead of 1.3700 (static level, round level) and 1.3740 (static level).

Looking south, support levels could be seen at 1.3580 (static level), 1.3530 (100-period Simple Moving Average) and 1.3500 (static level, round level).

• The US dollar found itself rather soft against the Japanese yen during trading on Tuesday, as we have broken below the ¥146 level quite drastically.
• I think ultimately, we are looking at this as a scenario where we are just simply going to move on the idea of risk appetite and where that is going.
• The market is likely to continue to pay close attention to the ¥145 level, which is where we crashed into and started to find a little bit of buying pressure.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for this pair is starting to flatten out a bit, as we had previously been so horribly negative. With this being the case, the market is likely to continue to see buyers underneath, especially if we get anywhere near the ¥142 level, an area that has been important a couple of times. If we were to break down below that level it would be a bit surprising to me, but it of course is possible.

On the upside, if we can break back above the ¥146 level, then I think we have the possibility of a move back to the 200 Day EMA, essentially where we had peaked during the trading session on Monday.

If we were to break above that 200 Day EMA and by extension, the ¥148 level, the market would more likely than not really start to take off, perhaps targeting the crucial ¥150 level. Anything above there opens of a longer-term “buy-and-hold” type of scenario. While I don’t necessarily expect that to happen easily, it is something that’s very realistic if we get a sudden run to the US dollar. The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar against the Japanese yen, so I don’t like shorting this pair, unless it is for a very short term move. I think we are in the midst of trying to find the longer term bottom, which of course is very noisy.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.