• The GBP/USD forecast remains supported despite downbeat UK GDP data.
• Cooler US CPI and tariff uncertainty keep the dollar weaker.
• Market participants are now eyeing US PPI and unemployment claims data due today.

The GBP/USD forecast remains broadly bullish amid the dollar’s weakness. However, today’s UK GDP data reported by the ONS showed economic contraction faster than expected. On Wednesday, the price saw a significant rise near 1.3600 as the US CPI reported softer-than-expected, raising concerns for the Fed’s “higher for longer” policy.

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The British pound slipped from the daily highs above 1.3580 towards the 1.3525 area before finding a renewed strength. The pair is trading at 1.3580 at the time of writing.

The UK GDP was expected to shrink -0.1% against the previous reading of 0.2% for March. However, the figures came at -0.3% for April, missing estimate, putting the pound under pressure. The ONS reported that the sharp fall in the GDP is attributed to the reduced goods exports to the US. The last four months reported consecutive rises in the economy, while April saw the largest monthly fall.

The higher-than-projected decline in the UK economy combined with the rising unemployment may force the Bank of England to continue with easing policy. In May, the bank had opted for the gradual and careful easing by slashing the rates by 25 bps to 4.5%. These economic shocks may increase the speculation of BoE’s more rate cuts.

On the other side of the equation, the US dollar remains weak on Thursday as President Trump threatened to send the letters to the countries not negotiating in good faith to accept his imposed tariffs.

Key Events Ahead

• US PPI
• US Unemployment Claims

GBP/USD technical forecast: Broad consolidation within uptrend

The GBP/USD daily chart shows a strong bullish trend as the price moves north within the uptrend. The pair remains strongly supported by the 20-day SMA. However, the pair shows consolidation within the range of 1.3480 to 1.3616. The 14-day RSI is at 60.0, which shows the pair is not overbought yet and has a tendency to gain further.

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Alternatively, breaking the 20-day SMA may gather strong selling traction, and the price may slip towards the lower boundary of the channel at 1.3270 ahead of 1.3200.

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• The US dollar initially rallied during Wednesday’s trading session, but the 145 yen level continues to act as a strong resistance.
• This level has held firm, and it’s widely seen as a critical threshold.
• Adding to the challenge is the 50-day EMA hovering just above, which could further hinder upward momentum.

Nonetheless, I think this is a market where the interest rate differential will continue to favor the US dollar. And despite the fact that CPI was a little bit cooler than anticipated in America, I still think we have to pay close attention to the whole idea of the trade situation between the United States and China having a major influence on risk appetite as well. After all, the Japanese yen is considered to be the ultimate safety currency, if you will.

Pullbacks Could Be Interesting

So, we’ll have to see how that plays out. With that being said, I think you have a scenario where a pullback almost certainly gets bought into just as a breakout almost certainly will get bought into. I don’t really have any interest in trying to short this market right now as the 142 yen level has been important multiple times.

I think that your floor breaking down below there opens up the possibility of a drop down to the 140 yen level, which has even more ramifications from a support standpoint. All things being equal, this is a market that I am positive on, but I recognize you’re going to have to sit around and just get paid to swap and be very patient between now and the move that we do end up having. A lot of patience here goes a long way.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.

We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

Platinum price succeeded by forming extra bullish waves, to settle near 1275.00 level that formed the previously awaited main target, then forming sideways trading due to stochastic attempt to exit the overbought level as appears in the above image.

We expect the affection of the price by the sideways bias domination temporarily, but its stability above $1223.00, which forms new support against the bullish trading will increase the chances for gathering the positive momentum, to expect the attempt of targeting $1302.00 level, to form a new extra target for the current trading.

The expected trading range for today is between $1245.00 and $ 1302.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

The EURJPY pair formed a new bullish rally, taking advantage of stochastic reach to the overbought level, hitting the second positive target at 166.45, forming some mixed trading by reaching 165.75.

Note that the main stability within the bullish channel’s levels by forming extra support at 164.80 level, these factors make us keep the bullish suggestion, to keep waiting for breaching the barrier at 166.45, which allows it to reach new bullish station that might begin at 167.25 reaching the bullish channel’s resistance at 168.50.

The expected trading range for today is between 165.30 and 167.00

Trend forecast: Bullish

June 11, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Dips after Inflation Data, 30-Year Bond Auction Next

The US Dollar dipped sharply following the weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) jumped to 1.3550 before a retreat to 1.3525.

Key resistance remains towards 1.3600 with doubts whether the Pound can secure sufficient momentum. According to UoB GBP/USD is vulnerable to a slide to 1.3430 unless there is a break above 1.3580.

A sustained move above 1.3600, however, would trigger speculation over more gains.

Markets moved to price in a larger potential for a September Fed rate cut and there will be expectations of another barrage of Fed criticism from President Trump.

Traders are already sensitive over the risk of a pro-administration appointment for the next Fed Chair.

There was limited reaction to the UK spending review. The substantial front-loading of spending in this parliament was confirmed with health and defence spending securing strong gains, while other departments will suffer.

The current market dynamics were illustrated by the fact that US inflation data had a much bigger impact on UK yields with the 10-year yield sliding to near 4.55% from above 4.60%.

According to ING; “The take-away for markets today will simply be confirmation that there is very little fiscal headroom.”

Overnight, it was reported that the US and Chinese negotiators have produced a framework for implementing the details of an agreement that had been previously agreed in May

Trump stated that a final deal had been reached with tariffs on Chinese imports at 55% and Chinese tariffs on US imports at 10%, although there was still confusion over the figures.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Currency Strategist Carol Kong commented; “It will still be very hard and it will take a long time for both sides to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. That sort of comprehensive deal usually takes years to be reached, so I’m skeptical that a framework reached at the meeting in London will be comprehensive. Tensions might be de-escalated for now, but they will certainly escalate again in coming months.”

Markets are likely to be disappointed that tariffs on Chinese imports will be 55% despite limited immediate reaction.

US consumer prices increased 0.1% for May compared with consensus forecasts of 0.2% with the year-on-year increase at 2.4% from 2.3% and slightly below expectations of 2.5%.

Core prices increased 0.1% on the month compared with expectations of 0.3% with the annual increase held at 2.8%.

Markets still expect no Fed rate cut in June and July, but with increased expectations of a September cut.

Scotiabank the release of the US Federal Budget Balance will likely sharpen the market’s focus on the USD’s longer-term issues.

According to ING; “A soft 3-year Treasury auction reversed some recent gains in US government bonds, which now face a dual test today with the highly watched 10-year auction.”

MUFG added; “The results were weak enough to keep the markets nervous ahead of the USD 39bn worth of 10-year paper auctioned this evening and USD 22bn worth of 30-year tomorrow. Nervousness around the 30-year auction could be particularly high given the signs of investors steering clear of longer-dated paper due to both inflation and debt sustainability concerns.”

MUFG also noted suggestions that the Budget Bill would be amended in the Senate.

It added; “Some element of sense prevailing in the Senate in pushing back on this bill would certainly help reduce some of the current negative US dollar sentiment.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

June 11, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK GBP/USD Forecast: Dollar Dips after Inflation Data, 30-Year Bond Auction Next

The US Dollar dipped sharply following the weaker-than-expected US inflation data.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) jumped to 1.3550 before a retreat to 1.3525.

Key resistance remains towards 1.3600 with doubts whether the Pound can secure sufficient momentum. According to UoB GBP/USD is vulnerable to a slide to 1.3430 unless there is a break above 1.3580.

A sustained move above 1.3600, however, would trigger speculation over more gains.

Markets moved to price in a larger potential for a September Fed rate cut and there will be expectations of another barrage of Fed criticism from President Trump.

Traders are already sensitive over the risk of a pro-administration appointment for the next Fed Chair.

There was limited reaction to the UK spending review. The substantial front-loading of spending in this parliament was confirmed with health and defence spending securing strong gains, while other departments will suffer.

The current market dynamics were illustrated by the fact that US inflation data had a much bigger impact on UK yields with the 10-year yield sliding to near 4.55% from above 4.60%.

According to ING; “The take-away for markets today will simply be confirmation that there is very little fiscal headroom.”

Overnight, it was reported that the US and Chinese negotiators have produced a framework for implementing the details of an agreement that had been previously agreed in May

Trump stated that a final deal had been reached with tariffs on Chinese imports at 55% and Chinese tariffs on US imports at 10%, although there was still confusion over the figures.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia Currency Strategist Carol Kong commented; “It will still be very hard and it will take a long time for both sides to reach a comprehensive trade agreement. That sort of comprehensive deal usually takes years to be reached, so I’m skeptical that a framework reached at the meeting in London will be comprehensive. Tensions might be de-escalated for now, but they will certainly escalate again in coming months.”

Markets are likely to be disappointed that tariffs on Chinese imports will be 55% despite limited immediate reaction.

US consumer prices increased 0.1% for May compared with consensus forecasts of 0.2% with the year-on-year increase at 2.4% from 2.3% and slightly below expectations of 2.5%.

Core prices increased 0.1% on the month compared with expectations of 0.3% with the annual increase held at 2.8%.

Markets still expect no Fed rate cut in June and July, but with increased expectations of a September cut.

Scotiabank the release of the US Federal Budget Balance will likely sharpen the market’s focus on the USD’s longer-term issues.

According to ING; “A soft 3-year Treasury auction reversed some recent gains in US government bonds, which now face a dual test today with the highly watched 10-year auction.”

MUFG added; “The results were weak enough to keep the markets nervous ahead of the USD 39bn worth of 10-year paper auctioned this evening and USD 22bn worth of 30-year tomorrow. Nervousness around the 30-year auction could be particularly high given the signs of investors steering clear of longer-dated paper due to both inflation and debt sustainability concerns.”

MUFG also noted suggestions that the Budget Bill would be amended in the Senate.

It added; “Some element of sense prevailing in the Senate in pushing back on this bill would certainly help reduce some of the current negative US dollar sentiment.”

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TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

June 11, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK Euro to US Dollar Forecast: EUR Targets 1.15 as USD Bears Wait

Overall market volatility has eased with tighter ranges, but markets remain very wary that underlying tensions could quickly flare up and trigger a fresh round of turbulence.

Trade negotiations will continue while there is another important US Treasury bond auction later in the day following the latest inflation data.

Markets are also continuing to monitor political developments including the US Administration’s reaction to the Los Angeles protests and potential threats to Federal Reserve independence.

According to IG Index; “now people are just trying to work out whether they’re going to buy or sell the U.S. dollar and that’s I think reflecting a bit of that indecision.”

UoB commented; “EUR/USD appears to have entered a range trading phase, likely between 1.1330 and 1.1495.

According to ING; EUR/USD’s direction today will be mostly set by the dollar, with some support likely near 1.1400 and a possible push above 1.1500 by the week’s end.”

Overnight, there were reports that negotiators have agreed on a “framework” to restart the flow of sensitive goods, including rare earths, pending approval from President Trump and Chinese President Xi.

MUFG commented; “There was no plan for the leaders to talk and nothing on a new round of negotiations beyond discussions over the coming days to ensure the details of this agreement are implemented.”

According to ING; “From a market sentiment standpoint, this feels like a positive step toward de-escalation, but not a major breakthrough. China’s refusal to commit to reducing its trade deficit still leaves plenty of ammo for trade hawks in Washington to resist any structural easing.”

Elsewhere on the trade front, the US Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit stated that it would extend the stay on reciprocal tariffs until the case is heard on 31st July.

The current 90-day delay is due to end on July 9th and there is, therefore, the possibility that aggressive tariffs will be put in place, especially against the EU.

MUFG commented; “the Trump administration would have resulted in an appeal to the Supreme Court and hence the timing of the full final outcome to this question of legality was always likely to go beyond July-August.”

Elsewhere, there has been speculation that current Treasury Secretary Bessent is being considered as a potential candidate to be the next Federal Reserve Chair.

There will be concerns that Bessent would be too close to the Administration.

ING commented; “The dollar strongly dislikes any threats to Fed independence. Add in that Bessent is likely to favour much lower rates (echoing Trump’s rhetoric), and the greenback faces mostly downside risks from this story.”

The US will also release the latest consumer prices data on Wednesday with expectations that the headline rate will increase to 2.5% from 2.3%. Core prices are expected to increase 0.3% on the month with a 2.9% annual rate from 2.8%.

ING expects a slightly softer set of data which would tend to reinforce speculation over an earlier cut in interest rates and undermine the dollar.

Danske Bank sees the potential for dollar gains in the near term, especially if there is an easing of trade tensions.

Nevertheless, it added; “we continue to see USD strength as an opportunity to fade, given ongoing medium- to longer-term macro and policy headwinds. These are likely to sustain the negative risk premium embedded in the USD post-Liberation Day. We maintain a 12M EUR/USD target of 1.20.”

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TAGS: Euro Dollar Forecasts

• On Wednesday, we’ve seen the British pound fall apart during early trading, only to turn around and show signs of life again.
• At this point in time, the market looks as if it is going to try to form a bit of a hammer for the Tuesday session, and that of course would be a strong sign.
• That being said, we also get the CPI numbers coming out of the United States on Wednesday, which of course is potentially going to be important for where the US dollar goes next. Obviously, that will have a knock on here British pound more for it, depending on what the dollar is doing.

Technical Analysis

The technical analysis for the British pound obviously is bullish over the longer term, but we have a massive amount of resistance just above that is starting to cause several issues. The 1.3650 level is an area that’s been important multiple times, but quite frankly we can even break above the 1.36 level. Underneath current trading, we have the 1.34 level offering support. If we could break down there, the market could open up the possibility of a move down to the 1.33 level, where we find the 50 Day EMA, which is rising at the moment. Below there, we have the 1.32 level, which is the next major support level.

Ultimately, I think we are more likely than not to see a lot of sideways and choppy action, but ultimately, we will need some type of catalyst to get bigger move going. I think the CPI numbers could possibly be that, but be honest, we seem a little bit “stuck” at the moment, which this time of year can be somewhat difficult to deal with via a lack of involvement in the market as summertime can be quiet. In the short term, I think we are looking at this prism of the 150 pips range for short-term range bound traders.

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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

• The USD/JPY forecast shows an increasing likelihood that the BoJ will delay rate hikes to next year.

• Talks between China and the US ended, easing trade war fears.

• Traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US CPI report.

The USD/JPY forecast shows an increasing likelihood that the Bank of Japan will delay rate hikes to next year. Meanwhile, talks between the US and China ended with few details. At the same time, market participants are awaiting the US CPI report for clues on the future of Fed rate cuts. 

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A Reuters poll on Wednesday revealed that a slim majority of economists believe the BoJ will hike in Q1. According to them, the impacts of Trump’s tariffs will force policymakers to delay hikes. Meanwhile, top officials at the bank have reiterated that they will continue to hike rates when inflation and growth re-accelerate. 

Elsewhere, talks between China and the US ended, easing trade war fears. However, there were few details on the outcome of the talks. Still, just the fact that they met and discussed trade was enough to show progress in negotiations. 

Meanwhile, traders are paying close attention to the upcoming US CPI report. The data might show a 0.2% increase in price pressures in May. Meanwhile, the annual figure might increase from the previous 2.3% to 2.5%. If inflation is hot, it will confirm fears that Trump’s tariffs have hiked price pressures. Such an outcome would mean more delays on Fed rate cuts.

USD/JPY key events today

• US core CPI m/m
• US CPI m/m
• US CPI y/y

USD/JPY technical forecast: Broken trendline yells for more gains

On the technical side, the USD/JPY price has broken above a solid resistance trendline, a sign that bulls might be ready to take charge. The price trades above the 30-SMA, with the RSI over 50, showing bulls are in the lead. However, they are facing a solid hurdle at the 145.00 key level. 

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For some time, the price has been making lower highs. However, it has failed to make lower lows as the 142.55 held firm as support. If bears cannot make lower lows, bulls will likely get stronger and start making higher highs and lows. 

A break above the 145.00 key resistance level will clear the path for USD/JPY to retest the 147.00 key level. On the other hand, if the level holds firm, the price will likely drop back below the trendline to retest the 142.55 support. 

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