• EUR/JPY may test the immediate barrier at the nine-day EMA of 172.15.
• The 14-day RSI remains above 50, indicating a persistent bullish bias.
• The initial support appears at the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 170.50.

EUR/JPY breaks its five-day winning streak, trading around 171.90 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The bullish bias is strengthening as the technical analysis of the daily chart shows that the currency cross moves upwards within the ascending channel pattern.

The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, strengthening bullish bias. However, the short-term price momentum is weaker as the EUR/JPY cross has moved below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

On the upside, the immediate barrier appears at the nine-day EMA of 172.15, followed by the fresh yearly high of 173.25, reached on July 16. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and support the EUR/JPY cross to navigate the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel at 176.10.

The EUR/JPY cross may approach the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 170.50. A break below the channel could weaken the bullish bias and put downward pressure on the currency cross to test the 50-day EMA at 168.50, aligned with monthly low at 168.46.

EUR/JPY: Daily Chart

• GBP/USD trades comfortably above 1.3500 in the European session.
• The risk-positive market atmosphere could help the pair edge higher.
• Markets will keep a close eye on fresh developments surrounding the US trade negotiations.

GBP/USD stays in a consolidation phase above 1.3500 after posting gains on Monday and Tuesday. The improving risk sentiment and the technical outlook suggests that the pair could stretch higher in the near term.

The US Dollar (USD) remained under selling pressure on Tuesday and allowed GBP/USD to build on Monday’s gains. The uncertainty regarding the United States’ trade relations with major partners and the deepening feud between US President Donald Trump and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell made it difficult for the USD to find demand.

In the early trading hours of the Asian session on Wednesday, Trump announced that they have completed a “massive deal” with Japan, explaining that Japan will invest $550 billion into the US and pay 15% reciprocal tariffs, down from 25%, to the US. This development triggered a risk rally midweek but the USD managed to keep its footing, with investors seeing the US-Japan trade agreement as a sign of more deals to come.

Reflecting the upbeat market mood, US stock index futures gain between 0.2% and 0.5%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 Index rises about 0.6%. In case risk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets in the second half of the day, the USD could have a hard time gathering recovery momentum.

Existing Home Sales data for June, which is unlikely to trigger a significant market reaction, will be the only data featured in the US economic calendar.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 70, suggesting that GBP/USD has more room on the upside before turning technically overbought.

In case GBP/USD clears the 1.3540-1.3550 resistance area, where the 200-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), 100-period SMA and Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level of the latest uptrend are located, technical buyers could take action. In this scenario, 1.3600 (static level, round level) and 1.3630 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement) could be seen as next resistance levels.

Looking south, support levels could be spotted at 1.3500 (static level, round level), 1.3470 (Fibonacci 50% retracement) and 1.3450 (50-period SMA).

• EUR/USD trades in negative territory below 1.1750 in the second half of the day.
• The technical outlook suggests that the bullish bias remains intact.
• Markets await news on EU-US trade talks ahead of the ECB meeting.

Following a bullish opening to the week, EUR/USD corrects lower on Wednesday and trades below 1.1750. Investors await fresh developments on trade negotiations between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US).

The US Dollar (USD) holds its ground midweek and causes EUR/USD to stretch lower as market fears over an economic downturn ease on the announcement of a trade deal with Japan. Additionally, US President Donald Trump noted that representatives from the EU will be in the US on Wednesday for the next round of trade negotiations. After losing about 1% in a two-day decline, the USD Index, which measures the USD’s valuation against a basket of six major currencies, clings to modest gains at around 97.50.

In case the EU and the US come to terms on trade, the immediate market reaction could be supportive for the USD. However, the currency could have a difficult time gathering further strength if risk flows continue to dominate the action in financial markets in the near term. At the time of press, US stock index futures were up between 0.2% and 0.5%, pointing to a bullish opening in Wall Street.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) will announce monetary policy decisions. Following June’s rate cut, the ECB is widely expected to keep its key rates unchanged after the July meeting.

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays below 60 but EUR/USD holds comfortably above the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), suggesting that the bullish stance remains despite losing momentum.

Looking south, the first support level could be seen at 1.1700 (100-period SMA) ahead of 1.1650 (Fibonacci 23.6% retracement of the latest uptrend) and 1.1630 (200-period SMA). On the upside, resistance levels could be spotted at 1.1760 (static level), 1.1800 (static level, round level) and 1.1830 (static level).

Copper price witnessed a strong rise in its last intraday trading, to breach the key resistance at $5.73, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a minor bias line, with the continuation of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the stability of this bullish track, especially with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), despite reaching overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its upcoming intraday trading, if it settles above $5.73, to target the critical resistance level at $5.89.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.65 and $5.89

Trend forecast: Bullish

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Copper price witnessed a strong rise in its last intraday trading, to breach the key resistance at $5.73, amid the dominance of the main bullish trend on the short-term basis and its trading alongside a minor bias line, with the continuation of the dynamic support that is represented by its trading above EMA50, reinforcing the stability of this bullish track, especially with the emergence of the positive signals on the (RSI), despite reaching overbought areas.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise in (copper) price in its upcoming intraday trading, if it settles above $5.73, to target the critical resistance level at $5.89.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.65 and $5.89

Trend forecast: Bullish

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The longer the subscription, the greater the savings and the more value you get.

Weekly performance report available here: Trading Signal Results – Week of July 14–18, 2025

July 23, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: “GBP Outlook Shifted from Negative to Neutral”

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) was unable to regain 1.3500 on Tuesday and consolidated around 1.3480 after Monday’s significant recovery.

UoB commented; “The outlook for GBP has shifted from negative to neutral; GBP is likely to trade in a range between 1.3415 and 1.3535.”

According to Scotiabank; “we see a near-term range bound between 1.3450 support and 1.3520 resistance.”

The latest UK government borrowing data dented Pound sentiment, although the overall impact has been limited at this stage.

Longer-term, Credit Agricole has a year-end GBP/USD forecast of 1.37 from 1.40 previously.

The June UK budget deficit increased sharply to £20.7bn for June from £14.1bn the previous year, above consensus forecasts of £17.4bn and the second-highest June deficit on record.

One major contributory component was debt interest payments which more than doubled to £16.4bn from £8.0bn the previous year.

Monex commented on the headline data; “These overshot expectations yet again, a fact that should refocus minds on UK fiscal sustainability risks.”

It added; “As we have noted previously, this is not a sterling positive dynamic, leaving risks to the pound tilted to the downside ahead of Thursday’s PMI release.”

Saxo UK investor strategist Neil Wilson expects Autumn tax hikes and is focussing on the bond market reaction.

The 10-year yield has retreated to near 4.61% from earlier highs around 4.65% with the 30-year yield around 5.44%

According to Wilson; “we’re not yet back to yesterday’s highs so nothing to get jumpy about. But I do worry that we could see bond vigilantes hit gilts this autumn.”

Overall financial conditions will be a key element for both the dollar and Pound.

Scotiabank detects some warnings from US equity-market conditions; “it is clear that NYSE market breadth remains pretty poor—fewer stocks are driving broader index gains—which is not a great sign of health and we are right on the cusp of that time of the year when US equities typically hit a bit of an air pocket.”

The relationship between equities and the dollar fluctuates and is complex.

According to Scotiabank; “FX correlations with risk have normalized after an extended period in the spring when the USD tended to weaken with softer USD-denominated assets. But volatility might still be a test for the USD.”

The FTSE 100 index is testing record high, underpinning the Pound for now, but any slide in global equities would pose a threat to the Pound.

US trade developments will continue to be watched closely ahead of the August 1st tariff deadline with a high degree of uncertainty whether the Administration will look to extend deadlines.

Macquarie Group global FX and rates strategist Thierry Wizman commented; “Nothing that happens on August 1 is necessarily permanent, so long as the U.S. administration remains willing to talk, as was indicated in Trump’s letters from two weeks ago.”

Jonas Goltermann, deputy chief markets economist at Capital Economics looked at the interest rate implications; “Our base case remains that solid U.S. data and a tariff- driven rebound in inflation will keep the FOMC on hold into 2026, and that the resulting shift in interest rate differentials will drive a continued rebound in the dollar in the next few months”

He added; “But that view is clearly at the mercy of the White House’s whims.”

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According to Japan’s Ministry of Finance, the value of exports for US-bound motor vehicles plunged 26.7% YoY in June despite actual exports rising 3.4%. Economists attributed the sharp fall in exports to carmakers slashing prices to offset the existing 25% auto tariff.

Notably, transport equipment (including cars) accounted for 22.7% of Japan’s total exports in June, underscoring the significance of the sector for the economy.

Falling export prices impact corporate profit margins, potentially impacting Japan’s labor market. Given the auto sector accounts for around 8% of Japan’s total workforce, sector-wide job losses could weigh on consumer sentiment and spending, further affecting the economy.

A deteriorating macroeconomic backdrop would likely close the door on a 2025 BoJ rate hike. A less hawkish BoJ policy stance could weigh on appetite for the Yen. On the other hand, a favorable trade deal may revive bets on a BoJ rate hike.

BoJ Chatter and Rate Hike Rhetoric in Focus

While trade talks take center stage, traders should monitor BoJ commentary for clues on the effects of tariffs on the rate path. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida is slated to speak on Wednesday, July 23. Views on recent inflation numbers, the effect of US tariffs on trade terms, and the timeline for further policy tightening would move the dial.

USD/JPY Daily Outlook: Housing Sector and the US Dollar

Later in the session on Wednesday, US housing sector data will give traders a snapshot of the US economy. Economists forecast monthly existing home sales to fall 0.7% in June after rising 0.8% in May.

The GBPJPY pair rose in its last intraday levels, affected by its lean on the support of minor bullish trend line on the short-term basis, gaining positive momentum, accompanied by the emergence of the negative signals on the (RSI), after reaching oversold levels, attempting to surpass the negative pressure on the EMA50, announcing its full recovery.

Therefore, our expectations suggest a rise of (GBPJPY) in its upcoming intraday trading, if the support settles at 198.70, to target the critical resistance level at 199.80.

The expected trading range for today is between 198.75 and 199.80

Trend forecast: Bullish

July 22, 2025 – Written by David Woodsmith

STORY LINK GBP/USD Price Forecast: Pound Slips as Deficit Fears Wobble Sterling

The Pound US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate initially slipped on Tuesday before bouncing back following the latest UK borrowing figures.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3493, having rebounded quickly from its initial dip.

The Pound (GBP) wobbled on Tuesday after UK public sector borrowing for June came in at £20.7bn – well above forecasts of £15.6bn and the highest since April 2021. Weaker tax revenues and elevated debt servicing costs drove the shortfall, fuelling concerns over potential tax hikes in the autumn.

Sterling initially slipped as investors digested the figures, but GBP/USD later rebounded after the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) offered reassurance. The OBR noted that borrowing for the April–June quarter is ‘exactly in line’ with its March forecast, at £57.8bn, with receipts and spending tracking expectations.

The fiscal outlook for the rest of the year also appears brighter, with the OBR anticipating lower borrowing in H2, driven by higher capital gains tax receipts, reduced debt interest, and normalised social benefit spending.

The US Dollar (USD) clawed back losses on Tuesday, stabilising after a shaky start to the week as traders turned their focus to an upcoming speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

The ‘Greenback’ had come under pressure after former President Donald Trump renewed his attacks on Powell, urging the Fed to slash interest rates despite persistent inflationary concerns and the risk of tariff-fuelled price rises.

However, expectations that Powell will defend the Fed’s cautious stance and resist political pressure helped lift the Dollar. Investors anticipate that the Fed Chair will signal a steady-handed approach, reaffirming the central bank’s commitment to data-driven policy over short-term political demands.

With little on the economic calendar midweek, the Pound Dollar exchange rate may trade sideways in the short term. In the absence of fresh drivers, broader market sentiment and shifts in risk appetite are likely to steer movement.

The tempo picks up on Thursday, starting with the UK’s flash PMI figures. Analysts anticipate a strong showing from the services sector, with forecasts pointing to a rise to 53, its highest reading since August 2024. A solid print could give Sterling some upward momentum.

Across the Atlantic, the US S&P Global PMIs are also due. While not as closely watched as the ISM releases, a positive surprise could lend support to the Dollar. Meanwhile, weekly jobless claims will be closely monitored. Any uptick in filings may weigh on USD sentiment.

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July 22, 2025 – Written by Frank Davies

STORY LINK Euro to Pound Sterling Forecast: EUR Firm Despite Downbeat Market Mood

The Euro-to-Pound exchange rate (EUR/GBP) was trapped in a narrow range on Tuesday despite a souring market mood.

At the time of writing, the GBP/EUR was trading at around €1.1528, virtually unchanged from Tuesday’s opening levels.

The Euro (EUR) found modest support on Tuesday, strengthening against several of its peers despite the absence of any notable Eurozone data releases.

Although muted against the Pound (GBP), a broadly cautious market tone helped lift demand for the safe-haven common currency, allowing it to edge higher against its risk-sensitive rivals.

However, the Euro’s gains were limited, as persistent concerns over US–EU trade relations acted as a headwind, tempering investor enthusiasm and keeping EUR performance relatively contained.

The Pound saw uneven trading on Tuesday, with its performance driven mainly by shifting risk appetite amid a quiet UK economic calendar.

Sterling managed to edge higher against its risk-sensitive rivals despite its own growing correlation with risk appetite, as an anxious trading environment dented demand for those currencies.

However, the Pound struggled to build momentum elsewhere, holding steady against safe-haven currencies such as the Euro, as the prevailing risk-off sentiment kept GBP gains in check.

Looking ahead to Wednesday’s European session, the Pound Euro (GBP/EUR) exchange rate is likely to remain subdued, with both currencies lacking clear direction in the absence of any high-impact domestic data.

With no notable UK or Eurozone releases scheduled, investors are likely to look ahead to more influential events later in the week.

The primary focus will be Thursday’s European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision.

While the ECB is widely expected to hold interest rates steady at its July meeting, the tone of the accompanying statement and press conference will be crucial in determining the central banks next move.

Any hints that further rate cuts remain on the table, especially in light of lingering concerns about weak growth across the bloc, could weigh heavily on EUR exchange rates.

Equally, if policymakers strike a more hawkish tone or express confidence in the Eurozone’s economic outlook, the single currency could find renewed support and push higher in the latter half of the week.

At the same time, the Pound may find fresh impetus from the UK’s upcoming flash PMI figures, also set for release on Thursday.

Markets are expecting the UK’s services PMI reading, the dominant sector of the UK economy, to remain in expansion territory, which could underpin GBP exchange rates.

Until then, however, the GBP/EUR exchange rate is likely to remain rangebound, as traders await Thursday’s key events.

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