The Pound to Australian Dollar (GBP/AUD) exchange rate slipped at the start of the week as renewed US-China trade optimism drove risk-on sentiment and boosted the risk-sensitive Australian Dollar.

DAILY RECAP:

The Australian Dollar (AUD) started the week on the offensive, climbing against most major peers as traders welcomed renewed signs of progress in US-China trade negotiations.

Reports that Washington and Beijing had agreed on a preliminary ‘framework’ deal ahead of the upcoming meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping lifted market confidence, sending risk assets higher.

Given the Aussie’s close trade ties with China and its reputation as a proxy for global risk appetite, the news fuelled strong demand for the currency — seeing the AUD rally sharply through Monday’s European session.

The Pound (GBP), meanwhile, held largely steady ahead of upcoming UK data releases.

Traders looked to the afternoon’s CBI distributive trades survey for direction, which was expected to show another decline in retail sales activity for October, reflecting softer domestic demand.

However, with no major developments in sight, Sterling’s moves were modest and largely reactive to broader shifts in risk sentiment.

Near-Term GBP/AUD Forecast: All Eyes on Australian Inflation Data

Looking ahead, the next key driver for the Pound to Australian Dollar exchange rate will be Wednesday’s Australian CPI report.

Economists expect inflation to edge higher across key measures, which could bolster AUD if the data reduces the likelihood of further Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cuts.

Until then, GBP/AUD movement on Tuesday is likely to be shaped by global market tone.

If optimism surrounding trade relations persists, the Aussie may extend gains. Conversely, any cooling in sentiment could see Sterling claw back some ground.

The Pound to US Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate firmed at the start of the week as softer US inflation data fuelled expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve rate cuts and lifted risk sentiment.

DAILY RECAP:

The US Dollar (USD) lost traction on Monday as markets digested the implications of last Friday’s softer US CPI report.

Headline inflation eased more than expected, reinforcing the view that price pressures are cooling and boosting market confidence that the Federal Reserve could cut rates by up to 50 basis points before year-end.

This dovish shift in expectations weighed on USD across the board, with the currency also pressured by a broad risk-on tone after reports of progress in US-China trade talks.

Meanwhile, the Pound (GBP) traded in tight ranges, with little domestic data to provide direction.

Traders focused on the afternoon’s CBI distributive trades survey, expected to show another dip in retail sales activity — potentially signalling softer consumer demand.

Overall, Sterling’s performance on Monday reflected its rising sensitivity to shifts in global risk appetite rather than homegrown fundamentals.

Near-Term GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Decision Looms Large

All eyes now turn to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve policy meeting.

Markets widely expect a 25bps rate cut, though speculation has grown over a larger 50bps move following last week’s inflation data.

If the Fed delivers a bigger cut or signals further easing ahead, the Dollar could slide sharply.

Conversely, a cautious tone or smaller-than-expected move might prompt a USD rebound.

With the UK data calendar quiet, GBP/USD direction will hinge primarily on the Fed’s decision and the accompanying guidance.

Continued risk-on sentiment would also favour the Pound, while any souring in global mood could see Sterling retrace gains.

The US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) exchange rate is trading near ¥152.86, down 0.14% on the day after touching resistance around 153.27 last week.

Rabobank says the week ahead could be pivotal for the yen, with markets watching both the Bank of Japan’s October 30 policy meeting and Prime Minister Takaichi’s first in-person meeting with US President Trump.

“The market’s implied path for policy now suggests only 20 bps of tightening over three months,” Rabobank noted, “reflecting a loss of confidence in the BoJ’s ability to deliver another 25-bps hike before year-end.”

The bank highlighted that the yen has been the worst-performing G10 currency so far this month, losing over 3% against the US dollar.

“We see scope for the JPY to recover some ground versus the USD on the assumption that BoJ rates can be raised again by the turn of the year,” the bank said.

“This in turn assumes that Governor Ueda underscores the BoJ’s hawkish bias at this week’s policy meeting.”

Rabobank forecasts USD/JPY at 147 on a three-month view, adding that “recent highs around 153.27 are likely to provide resistance,” and that it would favour selling rallies ahead of the BoJ decision.

On the political front, the bank said Takaichi’s meeting with Trump “will be an early test of her ability to maintain Japan’s alliance with Washington” and that she is unlikely to advocate a weaker yen policy given the sensitivity of imported inflation.

Current USD/JPY rate: ¥152.86. More Dollar-Yen forecasts.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound rallied a little bit during the trading session here on Monday as well, as it looks like the 1.34 level is coming into the picture for potential support and resistance as it is in the middle of the larger consolidation area. Rallies that appear here and show signs of exhaustion are more likely than not going to be sold into, with the 1.35 level being significant resistance as it is the same place that not only do we see a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but also where we start to run into the uptrend line that’s now been broken. If we drop from the 1.35 level, then we could head back to the 1.3250 level, possibly the 1.32 level.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The Euro has pulled back slightly against the British pound during the trading session on Monday, with the 0.8750 level offering resistance yet again. At the end of the day, this is a market that I think continues to see the 0.8750 level as a major barrier. So, if we were to break above there, then we could go much higher. A short-term pullback to the 50-day EMA is possible, with the 0.8684 level offering a little bit of support. Anything below there, then we could go looking at the 0.86 level, where the 200-day EMA is trying to get to.

This is a positive market overall, but we have such a major amount of resistance above that it is going to be difficult to ultimately have to make some type of bigger decision. Keep in mind that this pair is typically very choppy. So, at the end of the day, this is a market that I think you use as an indicator of how to trade the euro or the pound against the US dollar based on relative strength.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

The Pound to Canadian Dollar exchange rate (GBP/CAD) softened last week as weaker UK inflation data and renewed fiscal concerns weighed on Sterling sentiment.

WEEKLY RECAP:

The Pound (GBP) was subdued early in the week amid light data and directionless trading.

Tuesday’s UK public finance figures revealed government borrowing had climbed to its highest level since 2020, fuelling fiscal unease ahead of the Autumn Budget.

Mid-week, Sterling came under renewed pressure as September’s CPI data undershot expectations — headline inflation held at 3.8% and core slipped to 3.5%.

The weaker figures amplified Bank of England (BoE) rate cut speculation, dragging GBP lower through Wednesday and Thursday.

By Friday, Sterling stabilised after upbeat retail sales and services PMI results signalled resilience in consumer and business activity, helping the Pound trim its losses into the weekend.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) endured a choppy week, initially pressured by softer oil prices before recovering on Tuesday as domestic inflation surprised to the upside — tempering Bank of Canada (BoC) rate cut expectations.

Mid-week, rising oil prices provided further support, though Thursday’s weaker retail sales print and renewed trade tensions with the US capped gains, leaving CAD volatile into the week’s end.

Near-Term GBP/CAD Forecast: BoC Decision to Steer the Loonie

The key event this week will be Wednesday’s Bank of Canada (BoC) rate decision.

Markets expect a 25bps cut; if confirmed, and paired with dovish forward guidance, CAD could come under pressure mid-week.

However, if the BoC surprises with a hold or downplays further easing, the Canadian Dollar may rally.

The UK side remains light, with Monday’s CBI distributive trades survey expected to show another decline — a result that could see Sterling start the week on a softer footing.

Overall, GBP/CAD direction looks set to hinge on the BoC’s tone and subsequent market risk appetite.

Created on October 27, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Remains bearish.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1550 – 1.1470.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1680 – 1.1740 – 1.1800.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy the EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1540, target 1.1800, and stop loss 1.1470.
• Sell the EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730, target 1.1600, and stop loss 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

By the end of last week’s trading, the Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) maintained stability, finding support near the 1.1600 level before bouncing back to around 1.1647. Weaker-than-expected US inflation data limited demand for the US Dollar. According to platforms of reliable trading companies, the EUR/USD pair settled near 1.1620 by the end of the week, with stronger PMI figures from the Eurozone providing additional support.

Declining US Inflation Strengthens Price Range

Based on economic calendar data, the latest US Consumer Price figures came in slightly below expectations, strengthening the market’s conviction that the Federal Reserve will cut US interest rates at its meeting this week. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.3% in September, bringing the annual rate to 3.0% from 2.9%, just shy of the 3.1% consensus forecast. Core CPI also came in below expectations, rising 0.2% month-on-month and slowing to 3.0% year-on-year. Market experts commented on the announced figures: “The headline inflation figure was slightly weaker than expected. Consequently, the US Dollar saw a sell-off on the news, although markets were quite confident about Fed cuts in October and December.” They added, “As these cuts are already priced in, this sudden Dollar weakness may not persist.”

In general, markets are fully pricing in a 50 basis point (bps) easing by the end of the year, and in the absence of available jobs data, it will be difficult to speculate much beyond the December meeting.

On the European side, the Eurozone PMI data came in stronger than expected, reassuring growth momentum and helping the euro consolidate its gains.

From a technical perspective for the EUR/USD pair, price movements still appear to be part of a range-bound trading phase. The implied volatility for EUR/USD has dropped to an 11-month low, with a warning that given the current geopolitical environment, a continuation of this calm should not be heavily relied upon. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is stable around the 45 reading, confirming the bearish bias and preparation for stronger losses before the technical indicator reaches the oversold extreme. At the same time, the MACD lines are firmly trending downwards. Today, amidst the absence of influential US economic releases, the Euro’s trading will be affected by the announcement of the German IFO Index reading at 11:00 AM (Egypt time).

Trade tensions will affect currency rates.

On another front that will influence currency price directions in the coming days, trade headlines will add further uncertainty. US President Trump confirmed that his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is scheduled for this week, even as talks with Canada were suddenly suspended. According to economists, expectations are very high for the Trump-Xi meeting, with a high probability of a significant calming down following the direct encounter. Investors are accustomed to the pattern of threats followed by concessions.

But for readers planning to buy the euro or US dollar, the recent volatility highlights how quickly sentiment can shift based on key data and trade headlines. Contact us to discuss your euro buying needs. Overall, the euro’s hold above 1.16 confirms that while the Fed’s rate cut is largely priced in, volatility could rise again as traders consider the upcoming monetary policy statement and any new developments in US-China relations.

Trading Tips:

Keep in mind that the EUR/USD price will remain in a narrow range pending the market and investor reaction to the US Federal Reserve announcement this week, followed by the outcome of the Trump-Xi meeting.

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The GBPJPY pair keeps the bullish scenario by providing new pressure on the barrier at 203.95, to find an exit for resuming the previously awaited bullish attack, the attempt of forming extra support at 202.85 level will increase the extra targets by its rally towards 204.60 directly, reaching the next main target near 205.25.

Note that the stability of stochastic within the overbought level will reinforce the chances of gaining the required bullish momentum, to achieve the required breach and reaching the previously suggested targets.

The expected trading range for today is between 203.35 and 204.60

Trend forecast: Bullish