The November data followed BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda’s optimistic economic outlook. He stated that the economy will return to growth in the fourth quarter and beyond, reinforcing his recent bullish pivot. Last week, Governor Ueda supported a rate hike, citing strong wage growth, fading US tariff risks, and FX weakness.

While expectations of a BoJ rate hike are strengthening yen demand, the FOMC interest rate decision, FOMC Economic Projections, and Fed Chair Powell’s press conference will dictate buyer appetite for the US dollar.

FOMC Interest Rate Decision Looms

Later on Wednesday, the Fed will take center stage as investors await its highly anticipated interest rate decision and Economic Projections. Economists expect the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, with the CME FedWatch Tool giving an 87.6% chance of a rate cut.

Barring an unexpected hold or a surprise 50-basis-point cut, the market focus will be on the Economic Projections and the dot plot on rate expectations. Notably, the chances of a Q1 2026 rate cut declined overnight.

The FOMC Committee has divided into two camps in recent months. On one side, members support further policy easing to bolster a cooling labor market, while on the other, voters view sticky inflation as a reason to pause further cuts. Given the division among voting members, a hawkish cut looks likely, where the Fed downplays further easing in the near-term, but remains data dependent.

Economic Projections and Dot Plot to Spotlight the Greenback

The Economic Projections and dot plot will provide the crucial insights into the Fed’s outlook and potential rate path. For context, the September dot plot projected a 3.25%-3.50% Fed Funds Rate (FFR) by the end of 2026.

A 25-basis-point rate cut today would leave two further rate cuts to align with the September dot plot, the baseline for traders. A dovish Fed rate cut would be a lower FFR by the end of 2026, while a hawkish cut would be a higher 2026 FFR forecast.

Notably, the projections will be based on outdated inflation and jobs data, given the cancellation of October data. The absence of October’s government reports may downplay the influence of inflation, unemployment, and GDP projections on US dollar demand. However, given the USD/JPY sensitivity to September’s JOLTs job openings, the pair will be exposed to heightened volatility.

Meanwhile, there is also a potential announcement on bond purchases (quantitative easing).

With increased uncertainty about the post-December Fed rate path, the short- and medium-term outlook hinges on the Fed and the BoJ’s interest rate decisions and policy outlooks. Despite the uncertainty, the Fed’s easing and the BoJ’s tightening support a bearish medium-term outlook for USD/JPY.

Technical Outlook: USD/JPY on a Downward Trajectory

Looking at the daily chart, USD/JPY traded above the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), signaling a bullish bias. However, fundamentals have begun to shift from the technical trend, supporting a bearish medium-term outlook.

A break below the 155 support level would bring the 50-day EMA into play. If breached, the 153 support level would be the next key support. Significantly, a sustained fall below the 50-day EMA would signal a bearish trend reversal, supporting a near-term drop toward 150.

Created on December 10, 2025

• The USD/JPY pair rallied firmly ahead of the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, with traders watching both the expected cut and the press-conference guidance.
• A break above ¥158 could open a move toward ¥160, while dips remain favored for buying.

The US dollar has rallied quite nicely during the trading session on Tuesday, as it looks like we are ready to continue going higher. That being said, though, you have to understand that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision on Wednesday, which will have a major influence on this pair. Ultimately, keep in mind that although an interest rate cut is expected, a lot of what people will be paying attention to is the press conference and what the Federal Reserve is likely to do going forward.

Key Levels Into the Fed Decision

With this being the case, it’s possible that the market could go looking to the 158 yen level, breaking above there, then opening up the possibility of a much bigger move. But as things stand right now, I think you have to understand that Wednesday will be pretty messy, but once we get above that 158 yen level, and maybe it happens Wednesday, I don’t think it will happen right away, but it could. Then we’re looking at 160 yen before it’s all said and done.

I have no interest whatsoever in shorting this pair, and I look at dips as potential buying opportunities, but I also recognize that you have to be somewhat cautious here because of the volatility. You don’t want to get taken out of the market as machines are reacting to the interest rate decision or the statement.

All things being equal, as long as we don’t break down below the low price of Friday, I think the uptrend is very much intact and would even extend that maybe as low as 153 yen. Anything above there, it’s still got a shot to go higher. And I think ultimately if we can get above 158, to the 160 yen level, this thing could really take off. We’ll just have to wait and see what Jerome Powell has to say.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Rangebound While Fed Uncertainty Builds

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted through Tuesday’s session with little conviction, as traders positioned themselves cautiously ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading around $1.3323, showing minimal movement from the day’s opening levels.

The US Dollar (USD) traded without clear direction on Tuesday, with markets unwilling to commit ahead of the Federal Reserve’s imminent policy announcement.

While the Fed is widely expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut, the real uncertainty lies in the central bank’s forward guidance. Investors remain unclear on how aggressively — or cautiously — policymakers intend to ease monetary conditions in the coming months.

Split views within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) have contributed to this uncertainty. Some officials warn that stubborn inflation limits the scope for meaningful cuts, while others point to signs of cooling in the US labour market as evidence that additional policy support is needed.

This lack of consensus has left traders hesitant, keeping the Dollar subdued as they await clearer direction from the Fed.

The Pound (GBP) spent much of Tuesday moving sideways, with a lack of fresh UK economic data leaving traders with little impetus to reposition.

A broadly indecisive market mood added to the inertia. With sentiment still fragile, the increasingly risk-sensitive Pound found itself confined to a tight trading band.

GBP/USD Forecast: Fed Decision to Steer Direction

Focus now turns to Wednesday’s Federal Reserve announcement, where policymakers are expected to deliver a 25bps rate cut. However, the key market catalyst will be the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s accompanying commentary.

If Powell strikes a firm note — signalling reluctance to accelerate the pace of easing despite political pressure from President Donald Trump — the US Dollar may find renewed support.

Conversely, if Powell hints that the FOMC is becoming more open to deeper or more frequent rate cuts in the months ahead, USD could weaken further.

With no major UK releases scheduled midweek, the Pound is likely to remain without a strong domestic catalyst, leaving GBP/USD movement highly sensitive to US monetary policy signals.

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

USD/JPY Rises Amid Yen Weakness Post-Earthquake and with Central Banks in Focus

is rising amid yen weakness. The yen is the weakest G10 currency, falling against its major peers.

The yen fell yesterday and is extending those losses today, albeit to a lesser extent, after coming under pressure following an earthquake in northeastern Japan on Monday, which briefly raised concerns about economic disruptions. The earthquake measured 7.6 on the Richter Scale, and Tsunami warnings have now been lifted.

A downward revision to Japan’s Q3 also weighed on the currency, supporting PM Takaichi’s stance to boost growth, while also complicating the outlook for the BoJ.

The central bank is expected to raise next week amid a gradual path to normalization. While recent hawkish comments from BoJ Ueda have helped the yen recover from an 8-month low versus the , the yen still trades over 5% lower since the start of October, pressurised by PM Takaichi’s huge spending plans, which have sent Japanese bond yields to multi-decade highs.

Any meaningful recovery in the yen would require not just the BOG to follow through with stronger guidance but also for policymakers to demonstrate fiscal prudence.

This weakness in the yen is more evident against other yen crosses, with the JPY trading at a 16-month low versus , a 35-month low versus the AUD, and at a 17-month low versus the , particularly after the hawkish RBA held overnight.

Meanwhile, the USD is unchanged ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC , where the central bank is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points, which is broadly priced in. Attention will be on Powell’s tone and the dot plot for clues over what comes next.

Today, and 4-week average employment change will be in focus, but moves in the USD could remain muted ahead of tomorrow’s decision.

Near-term Worries of hawkish Fed cut and a dovish BoJ hike are supportive of USD/JPY.

USD/JPY Forecast – Technical Analysis

USD/JPY broke out of the multi-month rising channel, hitting an 8-month high of 157.90 before easing lower to the 155 support zone. The price has recovered from the 155 support zone and is heading higher, testing the 156.40 resistance level. The long-term uptrend remains intact.

Buyers will look to rise above 156.40 to extend gains to 157.90 and beyond, creating a higher high towards 160.00.

Support is seen at 155. A break below here opens the door to 153, the October 8 high, and the 50 SMA.

DAX Rises to an almost 1-Month High

The is rising for a fourth straight session, pushing to a nearly monthly high of 24,180.

The rise in Europe follows solid gains in the US after U.S. President Trump said NVIDIA (NASDAQ:) should be allowed to export its top H200 chips to China. However, there is also an element of caution ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC decision.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points; however, the main focus will be on what Fed Powell says, given the divided central bank, and on how many rate cuts the dot plot projects for 2026.

Markets are predicting 77 basis points of easing through the end of 2026, meaning two more rate cuts after the December reduction remain on the table. The broad expectation is for a semi-hawkish tone from the Fed, cautioning that the bar is high for another rate cut, so that a dovish tilt could boost volatility for stocks across the globe.

On the data front, German exports unexpectedly rose in October, defying expectations for a decline, thanks to European Union trade, while shipments to the US and China fell sharply. Exports from Europe’s largest economy rose 0.1% in October, below expectations of 0.5%.

Exports to EU countries rose by 2.7% on the month, whilst exports of goods to countries outside of the EU declined by 3.3%.

The trump administration imposed a 15% import tariff on most goods from the EU under a deal reached with the bloc. The US was Germany’s largest bilateral trading partner in 2024, with two-way goods totaling €253 billion. However, exports to the US continued falling, dropping 8.3% year on year. Meanwhile, exports to China were down 5.8%, while imports fell 5.2% on the month.

In Germany, defence stocks are getting a lift from supportive news flow on military orders. German lawmakers are set to approve procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion next week, according to Bloomberg. Rheinmetall, Renk, and Hensoldt are rising firmly.

Elsewhere, Thyssenkrupp said it expects to swing into a net loss of up to €800 million in 2026, citing restructuring provisions.

DAX Forecast – Technical Analysis

DAX recovered from the 22,900 November low, rising above the 200 SMA, the rising trendline resistance, and the 50 SMA to hit 24,180, a three-week high.

Buyers, supported by the RSI above, will look to extend gains to 24,500, the November high, ahead of 24,745, the record high.

Immediate support is seen at 24,000 (the round number), the 50 SMA, 23,550 (the 200 SMA), and 23,360 (the horizontal support). A break below the 23,000 support zone creates a lower low.

Original Post

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound is a little bit different in the sense that it continues to try to rally, but it can’t quite hang on to gains. The 1.34 level seems to be a significant barrier. If we can get above there, then it opens up the door to the 1.36 level, although I don’t think it’s a clean and easy move. If we pull back, then the 1.32 area and the 1.3250 area both offer support.

While keeping in mind that the Bank of England is expected to cut rates this month, it will probably have more to do with the press conference in the United States and what they say, mainly because the interest rate differential will essentially be the same at the end of the month and of course markets will be looking forward to try to figure out which one strengthens or weakens.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The euro initially fell against the British pound but has recovered a bit as we just hang around this 50-day EMA. The 0.8750 level is an area that had previously been resistance, so it makes a certain amount of sense that it offers support. That being said, this is a market that had reached a major resistance barrier on longer-term charts and now has pulled back. If you squint, you can make out some type of complex head and shoulders, but really, at this point, I think we’re just kind of waiting around for some type of external news, probably the Bank of England and its statement at its interest rate decision later this month.

That could, in fact, strengthen the euro, or perhaps the Bank of England sounds a little bit more standoffish and maybe a little hesitant to go into a full rate-cutting cycle. And that could turn this pair right back around. The next couple of days are probably pretty choppy, though.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

Created on December 09, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Neutral.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1590 – 1.1520 – 1.1470.
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 11.1680 – 1.1760 – 1.1820.

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1555 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1490.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

As observed in recent currency price movements, the EUR/USD pair continues to trade within a clear ascending channel. The price recently pulled back from its highs near the psychological barrier of 1.1700 to test support at the channel’s bottom. The EUR/USD price is currently stabilizing around 1.1653, suggesting the potential for another rally if the channel structure holds firm.

Simultaneously, Fibonacci extension levels applied to the recent movement show potential upward targets if the bullish trend resumes. The 0.00% level at 1.1628 represents the base of the current swing, while the 0.382 extension sits at 1.1678. Upward targets include the 0.5 extension at 1.1693, the 0.618 level at 1.1708, and the 0.764 extension at 1.1727. The ultimate target is the 1.0 extension around 1.1757 if the bullish momentum accelerates.

The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) is situated above the 200-day SMA, confirming that the current stronger path is upward, or that the rally is more likely to gain momentum rather than reverse. Both moving averages are sloping upward and lie below the current price action, indicating they may form dynamic support for any further pullbacks. Additionally, the Stochastic oscillator is rising from the oversold area, suggesting buyers are beginning to regain control after the recent correction. The oscillator has room to rise before reaching an overbought state, meaning bullish momentum may increase in the near term.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is also turning bullish from the lower half of its range, reflecting renewed buying interest. The oscillator has ample room to rise, suggesting that the EUR/USD pair may continue its upward trajectory if channel support holds and buyers remain committed to pushing prices towards the Fibonacci extension targets.

Factors Influencing the EUR/USD Pair

According to Forex currency trading experts, the EUR/USD pair may be affected by the upcoming FOMC statement, where the Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates but may signal a more cautious outlook toward neutrality in 2026. Consequently, more hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell could cause the US Dollar to rise, but it should also be noted that his term is nearing its end.

Prior to that, the Euro/Dollar will react today to the announcement of German Trade Balance figures at 09:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the more important release of the US ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and the JOLTS Job Openings reading at 17:00 PM Egypt time. Euro trading was already influenced by signals from European Central Bank officials, as ECB board member Schnabel stated that she was comfortable with market bets that the ECB’s next move might be an interest rate hike, noting that the risks to both growth and inflation are now tilted to the upside. She also suggested that the updated economic projections in December might be revised higher.

Overall, her comments, coupled with the resilience of economic activity and inflation nearing the target level, reinforced expectations that the ECB would keep interest rates unchanged until 2026.

Trading Advice:

As predicted, the EUR/USD pair will remain within a narrow range with no clear direction until the market reacts to the US Federal Reserve’s announcement tomorrow and any signals regarding its future policies until Powell’s term ends. Be cautious and don’t rush into anything.

Ready to trade our Forex daily forecast? We’ve shortlisted the best currency trading platforms in the industry for you.

Copper price ended yesterday’s trading by providing new closure near $5.3200 level, taking advantage of stochastic positivity by providing chances for resuming the bullish attack that depends on several factors, one of them is the stability within the bullish channel levels besides forming extra support at $5.1300.

Therefore, we keep the bullish scenario, waiting for reaching %161.8 Fibonacci extension level at $5.5000, and surpassing it will open the way for achieving extra gains in the upcoming period.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2500 and $5.5000

Trend forecast: Bullish

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound Sterling to Dollar Forecast: GBP Consolidation

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) consolidated above 1.33 after touching five-week highs, with traders now squarely focused on Wednesday’s Fed decision.

Markets expect a cut to 3.75%, though officials are likely to temper hopes for rapid follow-up easing.

GBPUSD’s path will hinge on Powell’s guidance and whether hawkish messaging offers the dollar a short-term lift.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Consolidation Below 5-Week Highs

After hitting 5-week highs around 1.3380, the Pound to Dollar (GBP/USD) exchange rate has consolidated above 1.3300.

The Pound has been subdued and the FTSE 100 index has drifted lower while markets are positioning for this week’s US interest rate decision.

There are no major UK data releases until Friday, but testimony by Bank of England officials to the Treasury Select Committee will be potentially important on Tuesday.

UoB still expects GBP/USD gains to 1.3410 and added; “only a breach of 1.3265 would indicate that GBP has moved into a range-trading phase.”

The Federal Reserve will announce its latest policy decision this Wednesday with the Bank of England decision the following week.

There are strong expectations that the Fed will decide to cut rates again to 3.75% with traders pricing in close to a 90% chance of a move.

Scotiabank looked at the underlying issues; “The Fed is widely expected to cut rates this week… and give markets a little more insight into how a deeply divided policy-making body expects the key rate changes to unfold in the year ahead via updated dots and economic forecasts.”

Comments from Chair Powell will be important and markets will also watch the updated interest rate forecasts from individual committee members.

According to BNY Mellon’s head of markets macro strategy Bob Savage; “We expect to see some dissents, potentially from both hawkish and dovish members.”

RBC expects the doves will win out; “With some softer data during the blackout, we doubt the hawks will put up a major fight.”

MUFG commented; “To push through a rate cut, Fed leadership may need to pair it with more hawkish guidance. We expect the updated communication to signal that the pace of rate cuts will likely slow next year, while emphasizing that the path remains highly data-dependent.”

It added; “More hawkish guidance could provide support for the US dollar and further delay expectations for another cut early next year.”

According to ING; “The Fed could be a positive event risk for the dollar in that it seems hard for the Fed to validate the 90bp of easing priced into Fed Funds futures by early 2027. However, the potential formal nomination of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair over the coming months and the seasonal factors keeping the dollar weak into year-end should limit the dollar’s upside.”

Danske Bank commented on the press conference; “We expect Powell to verbally push back against continuation of sequential rate cuts in early 2026. Updated dots will likely signal a range of views for 2026 rates outlook, but we expect median long-range dot to remain at 3.00-3.25%.”

Like this piece? Please share with your friends and colleagues:

International Money Transfer? Ask our resident FX expert a money transfer question or try John’s new, free, no-obligation personal service! ,where he helps every step of the way,
ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts

Copper price ended yesterday’s trading by providing new closure near $5.3200 level, taking advantage of stochastic positivity by providing chances for resuming the bullish attack that depends on several factors, one of them is the stability within the bullish channel levels besides forming extra support at $5.1300.

Therefore, we keep the bullish scenario, waiting for reaching %161.8 Fibonacci extension level at $5.5000, and surpassing it will open the way for achieving extra gains in the upcoming period.

The expected trading range for today is between $5.2500 and $5.5000

Trend forecast: Bullish