Created on December 09, 2025

• The British Pound continues to climb against the Japanese Yen as persistent yen weakness and wide rate differentials drive the trend.
• Pullbacks remain shallow and carry incentives to support buyers as long as global risk conditions stay stable.

The British Pound has rallied a bit during the trading session on Monday, breaking above the 207 Yen level, and in fact is looking like it’s trying to get to the 208 Yen level. This is a pair that is focusing, I believe, mainly on the Yen because, quite frankly, the Bank of England is likely to cut rates this month.

But at the same time, the Bank of Japan is so stuck in its loose monetary policy that even if it did raise rates, it wouldn’t be enough to make the difference up. Global liquidity requires cheap funding out of Japan, and I think that will continue to be the mainstay of the asset bubbles that everybody enjoys.

Pullbacks and Trend Considerations

Short-term pullbacks are buying opportunities, and I do believe that the 50-day EMA at the very least is your floor, and that is right around the 203.62 Yen level and rising. As long as we don’t get some type of major meltdown on a global stage, I expect the Japanese Yen to continue to weaken, but I don’t know that we won’t get the occasional pullback. You’ll just have to make sure that you have enough space for your stop loss to take advantage of these dips and, more importantly, hang on to the trend.

You get paid at the end of every day to hold this pair, and that’s something that I like. It helps soften the pullbacks, and of course, you also have to keep in mind that even if the Bank of England cuts rates, you can still drive a truck through the interest rate differential when it comes to these two currencies.

Ready to trade our daily forecast and analysis? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers UK to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

GBP/USD Technical Analysis

The British pound looks like it is rolling over a little bit. And that’s not a huge surprise because we had that explosive move a couple of days back due to the budget. The question is, will that budget change the trajectory of the economy? The answer, of course, is no. And recently, the Bank of England came within a whisker of cutting the rate. So, I think the market is starting to focus on that again.

At this point, we’ll be watching 1.32 to see if we can break down below it. If we can, then that’s a very negative sign. If we bounce from there, then we could head back into the previous consolidation. And just like in the case of the euro, I think it’s the Federal Reserve that determines the next move.

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

The euro rallied slightly during the trading session on Monday, but it’s hanging around the 50-day EMA. And I think this is an area that is going to continue to be somewhat noisy. All things being equal, I think we’re just killing time here. But if we were to break down below the 0.87 level, then I think the market really starts to drop. If we rally from here and clear the 0.875 level, then I think we go looking at the 0.8850 level again. That being said, this is a very choppy market. It always is choppy. So, I’m not looking for rapid or quick moves.

For a look at all of today’s economic events, check out our economic calendar.

– Written by


Ben Hughes

STORY LINK GBP to USD Forecast: Pound Sterling Drifts on Leadership Uncertainty, Fed Watch

The Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) drifted on Monday, slipping back from last week’s six-week high as renewed political unrest in Westminster weighed on Sterling and traders shifted their focus to the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decision.

At the time of writing, GBP/USD was trading at $1.3316, largely unchanged on the session.

The Pound (GBP) struggled for traction on Monday as fresh political anxiety limited Sterling’s upside.

Reports surfaced that Labour Together — a prominent Labour thinktank — has been polling members on potential leadership alternatives. The survey reportedly includes Prime Minister Keir Starmer and eight senior Labour figures, fuelling speculation that a leadership challenge could emerge in May 2026 should Labour underperform in the local elections.

Political stability remains a critical currency driver, and renewed whispers of leadership turbulence added an unwelcome layer of uncertainty. With questions creeping back into the UK’s political outlook, traders were reluctant to push the Pound meaningfully higher.

The US Dollar (USD) held steady on Monday as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.

While markets still widely expect a rate cut, subtle pre-decision positioning helped to keep the Dollar supported. A modest rise in US Treasury yields also offered the ‘Greenback’ some protection, as traders pared back the most aggressive easing bets and reassessed how quickly the Fed might loosen policy.

This slight recalibration was enough to prevent further Dollar losses, leaving USD largely rangebound as markets await clearer direction from the central bank.

GBP/USD Exchange Rate Outlook: Pre-Fed Jobs Data to Shape USD Direction

Looking ahead, UK focus will fall on Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey’s speech on Tuesday. With the final interest rate decision of 2025 looming, investors will scrutinise his comments for any shift toward a more dovish tone. Signals that a rate cut is likely next week — or that further easing could follow — may weigh heavily on Sterling.

For the US Dollar, incoming labour market data could be decisive ahead of the Fed meeting.

The ADP weekly employment change reading may pressure USD if it indicates another decline in staffing levels. Meanwhile, the long-delayed JOLTS job openings reports for September and October are finally due. Continued cooling in labour demand would reinforce evidence of slack in the jobs market, potentially dragging the Dollar lower as traders reconsider the Fed’s appetite for deeper rate cuts.

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Created on December 08, 2025

• EUR/JPY traded choppily on Friday, with buyers supporting each dip as sentiment toward the yen remains weak.
• Rising JGB yields and BOJ policy uncertainty shape direction, while key levels at 180, 182, and 185 yen define near-term momentum and support.

The euro has been choppy against the Japanese yen during the trading session on Friday, as we continue to see a little bit of support in this market anytime it drops. But you also need to keep in mind that the Japanese yen itself is facing a lot of noise due to the idea that the Bank of Japan will have to keep its interest rate fairly low, but the bond market at the same time is seeing yields rise in Japan; this is literally going to move JGB expectations. So, we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out from a longer-term standpoint. But as things stand right now, the Japanese yen is not a currency that a lot of people want to own. And that, of course, translates into a higher pair here.

Key Psychological Levels and Upside Targets

Ultimately, short-term pullbacks I think offer buying opportunities, and it’s probably worth noting that the 180 yen level is a large round psychologically significant figure that I think continues to offer short-term support. To the upside, the 182 yen level is probably a target.

And at that point in time, I think you have to look at this as a market that if we can break above there, then we will almost certainly go looking to the 185 yen level. If we were to break down, the 50-day EMA is closer to the 178 yen level and rising. So, I think that is an area buyers might look to pick up a little bit of value as well.

Begin trading our daily forecasts and analysis. Here is a list of Forex brokers in Japan to work with.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on December 08, 2025

• USD/JPY initially slipped but firmed after U.S. core PCE met expectations, with technical action hinting at another bullish rebound.
• Support levels remain intact, and the pair may consolidate while awaiting the upcoming FOMC decision and press conference.

The US dollar fell a bit against the Japanese yen in early trading on a Friday, but we have now reacted to the core PC numbers that came out as anticipated in the United States. And that, of course, makes the US dollar firm up a little bit because I think some people were expecting bad news.

At this point, we have to pay close attention to Japanese yields in the bond markets and the JGB market due to the fact that rising interest rates could signal a problem. It can be the death of the carry trade, but I don’t think that gets out of control. At this point, we’re in the process of forming another hammer as we had on Thursday. So I think a bounce here does make a certain amount of sense from a technical analysis standpoint, and it could send this market back to the 158 level.

50 Day EMA

The 50-day EMA sits in the 153.50 region, and the 153 yen level underneath is a significant support level, all things being equal. This is a market that I think will continue to find buying opportunities based on value, and the Wednesday session of next week also features the interest rate decision; people will be watching that very closely. But I think more importantly, what they will pay attention to is the press conference and statement.

If the Federal Reserve looks like it’s going to be very hesitant to cut rapidly, then that should send the US dollar higher. So, the next couple of days might be about hanging around in this area, just simply killing time waiting for that information. But right now, we’re still in an uptrend. That hasn’t changed. It looks like we are trying to push to the upside. So, I like it.

Want to trade our USD/JPY forex analysis and predictions? Here’s a list of forex brokers in Japan to check out.

Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.

Created on December 08, 2025

EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today

• Overall Trend: : Bullish.
• Support Levels for EUR/USD Today: 1.1610 – 1.1560 – 1.1480
• Resistance Levels for EUR/USD Today: : 1.1680 – 1.1760 – 1.1820

EUR/USD Trading Signals:

• Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1570 with a target of 1.1800 and a stop-loss at 1.1500.
• Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1730 with a target of 1.1500 and a stop-loss at 1.1800.

Technical Analysis of EUR/USD Today:

We expect the EUR/USD pair to move within a narrow range at the start of this important trading week, within its recent price range. According to reputable trading platforms, the EUR/USD closed around 1.1640 last week after gains that extended to the 1.1681 resistance level, the pair’s highest point since mid-October.

Last week, the EUR/USD’s gains were fueled by investor optimism following positive European economic data. Germany saw improvements, with factory orders rising 1.5% in October, according to the German Federal Statistical Office (Destatis), five times the market forecast of 0.3%. The September reading was also revised upwards from 1.1% to 2.0%. French industrial production also contributed to this improvement, exceeding expectations with a 0.2% increase compared to the anticipated 0.1% decline. Spanish production rose by 0.7%, exceeding expectations of 0.5%.

Further Confirming the strength of the underlying economic conditions, the Eurozone also released its GDP data, which showed the economy grew by 0.3% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, surpassing expectations of 0.2%.

Employment also grew at a comfortable rate of 0.2%, exceeding expectations of 0.1%. Overall, all of this points to a strong economic pulse that will encourage the European Central Bank to hold interest rates steady for an extended period. In a world where interest rates are so crucial, this presents the euro with a good opportunity to make further gains against the dollar, which is expected to be subject to a series of US interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this week.

Daily Chart Technical Indicators Support the Bulls

According to the daily Forex chart, technical indicators continue to support the upward trend of the EUR/USD pair. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 61 and has more time to achieve stronger gains before reaching overbought territory. This could happen if the bulls manage to push back towards the psychological resistance level of 1.1800. Meanwhile, the MACD indicator continues its steady upward trend.

The scenario for a bearish in the EUR/USD on the daily chart depends on the bears pushing prices back toward the psychological support of 1.1500 once again. The Euro/Dollar is not anticipating major data releases today apart from the announcement of the German Industrial Production reading at 09:00 AM Egypt time, followed by the Sentix Consumer Confidence reading for the Eurozone at 11:30 AM Egypt time.

Accordingly, limited trading for the Euro/Dollar can be expected today, pending the market’s reaction to the most important event: the US Federal Reserve’s policy announcement next Wednesday.

Trading Tips:

Please note that trading currencies within narrow ranges is not a sound investment decision. It is best to wait for the currencies’ reaction to this week’s key releases to determine the most suitable trading opportunities, avoiding unnecessary risk regardless of how strong the trading opportunities may seem.

Ready to trade our EUR/USD daily forecast? Here’s a list of some of the top forex brokers in Europe to check out.

The EURJPY pair remains affected by the dominance of the sideways bias, due to the contradiction between the main indicators, keeping their stability within the sideways track that is represented by 179.40 support, while 181.75 keeps forming strong barrier against bullish attempts.

The main stability within the bullish channel’s levels makes us wait to gather bullish momentum, motivating the bullish attempts by its rally towards 181.35, to attempt to breach the barrier to begin recording new gains by reaching 182.35 and 183.10.

The expected trading range for today is between 180.20 and 181.70

Trend forecast: Fluctuating

– Written by


Tim Boyer

STORY LINK Pound-to-Dollar Forecast: Will GBP/USD Rally on FED This Week?

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) stalled above 1.3350 after a strong run, with both the Fed and BoE poised to cut rates this month.

Long-term forecasts diverge sharply, with some banks expecting gains toward 1.45 while others see a slide back to 1.30 by 2026.

Direction now hinges on how aggressively the Fed eases next year and whether a new Chair injects political risk into US policy.

GBP/USD Forecasts: Rate cuts imminent

Credit Agricole forecasts that GBP/USD will retreat to 1.30 by the end of 2026, although it does see gains to 1.40 by the end of the following year.

In contrast, Bank of America forecasts that GBP/USD will strengthen to 1.45 at the end of 2026.

According to Bank of America; In reality, markets have been reluctant to price in good news, preferring to trade bearish GBP news into the budget.

GBP/USD posted net gains to 5-week highs above 1.3350 before stalling.

Federal Reserve policy will be a key element for currency markets. Traders are pricing around 86% odds of Fed cut this week, and potentially 2-3 more reductions next year.

There will also be a new Fed Chair from May which could trigger a notable shift in direction.

There has been increased speculation that President Trump will nominate Director of the National Economic Council Kevin Hassett to be the next Chair.

Such an appointment would increase concerns over increased political influence.

ING also noted potential risks to the US currency; “We are mildly bearish on the dollar into 2026 as the Fed brings the policy rate down to neutral. We see risks skewed to the dollar’s downside should a more politically minded Fed take US real rates a lot lower or even be dragged into a scheme to target longer-dated Treasury yields.”

Danske Bank has adjusted its forecast; “We expect the Fed to cut rates by 25bp in December, March and June (prev. January, April and July), and then maintain the terminal rate of 3.00-3.25% through the rest of 2026 and 2027.”

It noted a high degree of uncertainty; “Sudden slowdown in private consumption could tilt the Fed towards resuming more aggressive rate cuts, but the persistent fiscal easing could also force the Fed to maintain rates at a structurally higher level than we assume.”

Credit Agricole, however, expects no cuts in 2026; “Policy uncertainty to fade and dovish Fed market expectations to be put to the test by a resilient US economy and sticky inflation that would further render any fiscal dominance attempts costlier for the Trump administration ahead of the all-important US mid-term elections.”

There are also strong expectations that the Bank of England will cut rates in December while 2026 policy decisions will be a key element.

Barclays commented; “The BoE is expected to slow the pace of policy easing in 2026, this is contingent on inflation remaining contained and the labour market staying stable”

The bank did add; “some slack is starting to appear in the labour market. Should the unemployment rate surpass 5%, the central bank may ease more aggressively in a bid to support real disposable income and consumption.”

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ensuring you get the best exchange rates on your currency requirements.

TAGS: Pound Dollar Forecasts